Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics最新文献

{"title":"Comparison of Rabies Cases Received by the Shomal Pasteur Institute in Northern Iran: A 2-Year Study.","authors":"Saeid Kavoosian,&nbsp;Ramezan Behzadi,&nbsp;Mohsen Asouri,&nbsp;Ali Asghar Ahmadi,&nbsp;Mehrab Nasirikenari,&nbsp;Alireza Salehi","doi":"10.1155/2023/3492601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/3492601","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The rabies virus, which belongs to the genus <i>Lyssavirus</i>, the family <i>Rhabdoviridae</i>, is the causative agent of rabies, a contagious, deadly, and progressive neurological infection. This illness is commonly distributed worldwide and affects all warm-blooded animals. Regarding the zoonotic aspects of rabies, the prevalence of rabies was investigated in this study. Over 2 years, 188 samples were examined via the direct fluorescent antibody test (DFAT) and mouse inoculation test (MIT) techniques by using brain tissue samples. Our findings showed that 73.94% of samples were rabies positive. The highest number of samples belonged to cows and dogs, respectively. The positivity rate in cows was 71.88%, followed by dogs with a 57.78% infection rate. These findings suggested that despite the heavy monitoring protocols in Iran, rabies is still a prevalent disease, and it is advised that vaccinations and screening programs should be carried out more frequently with heavier observation.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2023 ","pages":"3492601"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9985497/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9115380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Trend on Machine Learning in <i>Helicobacter</i> within One Decade: A Scientometric Study.","authors":"Omid Eslami,&nbsp;Mohsen Nakhaie,&nbsp;Mohammad Rezaei Zadeh Rukerd,&nbsp;Maryam Azimi,&nbsp;Ellahe Shahabi,&nbsp;Amin Honarmand,&nbsp;Mahdiyeh Khazaneha","doi":"10.1155/2023/8856736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/8856736","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aims to create a science map, provide structural analysis, investigate evolution, and identify new trends in <i>Helicobacter pylori</i> (<i>H. pylori</i>) research articles.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>All <i>Helicobacter</i> publications were gathered from the Web of Science (WoS) database from August 2010 to 2021. The data were required for bibliometric analysis. The bibliometric analysis was performed with Bibliometrix R Tool. Bibliometric data were analyzed using the Bibliometrix Biblioshiny R-package software.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 17,413 articles were reviewed and analyzed, with descriptive characteristics of the <i>H. pylori</i> literature included. In journals, 21,102 keywords plus and 20,490 author keywords were reported. These articles were also written by 56,106 different authors, with 262 being single-author articles. Most authors' abstracts, titles, and keywords included \"Helicobacter-pylori.\" Since 2010, the total number of <i>H. pylori</i>-related publications has been decreasing. Gut, PLOS ONE, and Gastroenterology are the most influential <i>H. pylori</i> journals, according to source impact. China, the United States, and Japan are the countries with most affiliations and subjects. In addition, Seoul National University has published the most articles about <i>H. pylori</i>. According to the cloud word plot, the authors' most frequently used keywords are gastric cancer (GC), <i>H. pylori</i>, gastritis, eradication, and inflammation. \"<i>Helicobacter pylori</i>\" and \"infection\" have the steepest slopes in terms of the upward trend of words used in articles from 2010 to 2021. Subjects such as GC, intestinal metaplasia, epidemiology, peptic ulcer, eradication, and clarithromycin are included in the diagram's motor theme section, according to strategic diagrams. According to the thematic evolution map, topics such as <i>Helicobacter pylori</i> infection, B-cell lymphoma, CagA, <i>Helicobacter pylori</i>, and infection were largely discussed between 2010 and 2015. From 2016 to 2021, the top topics covered included <i>Helicobacter pylori</i>, <i>H. pylori</i> infection, and infection.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2023 ","pages":"8856736"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10439832/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10458119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association of Diabetes with Meningitis Infection Risks: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.","authors":"Moses Asori, Ali Musah, Razak M Gyasi","doi":"10.1155/2022/3996711","DOIUrl":"10.1155/2022/3996711","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Global Burden of Disease Study in 2016 estimated that the global incident cases of meningitis have increased by 320,000 between 1990 and 2016. Current evidence suggests that diabetes may be a prime risk factor for meningitis among individuals, including older adults. However, findings of prior studies on this topic remain inconsistent, making a general conclusion relatively difficult. This study aimed to quantitatively synthesize the literature on the risk of meningitis associated with diabetes and compare the risk across different global regions.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>Literature search and study design protocol followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, African Journal Online, and Google Scholar using relevant MESH terms. A random effect model was used to pull effect sizes.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Initial search yielded 772 papers but 756 studies were excluded due to duplicity and not meeting inclusion criteria. In all, 16 papers involving 16847 cases were used. The pulled effect size (ES) of the association between diabetes and meningitis was 2.240 (OR = 2.240, 95% CI = 1.716-2.924). Regional-base analysis showed that diabetes increased the risk of developing meningitis in Europe (OR = 1.737, 95% CI = 1.299-2.323), Asia (OR = 2.192, 95% CI = 1.233-3.898), and North America (OR = 2.819, 95% CI = 1.159-6.855). These associations remained significant in the study design and etiological classe-based subgroup analyses. However, we surprisingly found no studies in Africa or South America.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Diabetes is a risk factor for developing meningitis. Given that no research on this topic came from Africa and South America, our findings should be contextually interpreted. We, however, encourage studies on diabetes-meningitis linkages from all parts of the world, particularly in Africa and South America, to confirm the findings of the present study.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 ","pages":"3996711"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9757945/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10480924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SARS-CoV-2 Genome-Based Severity Predictions Correspond to Lower qPCR Values and Higher Viral Load.","authors":"Martin Skarzynski, Erin M McAuley, Ezekiel J Maier, Anthony C Fries, Jameson D Voss, Richard R Chapleau","doi":"10.1155/2022/6499217","DOIUrl":"10.1155/2022/6499217","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated the importance of predicting, identifying, and tracking mutations throughout a pandemic event. As the COVID-19 global pandemic surpassed one year, several variants had emerged resulting in increased severity and transmissibility. Here, we used PCR as a surrogate for viral load and consequent severity to evaluate the real-world capabilities of a genome-based clinical severity predictive algorithm. Using a previously published algorithm, we compared the viral genome-based severity predictions to clinically derived PCR-based viral load of 716 viral genomes. For those samples predicted to be \"severe\" (probability of severe illness >0.5), we observed an average cycle threshold (Ct) of 18.3, whereas those in in the \"mild\" category (severity probability <0.5) had an average Ct of 20.4 (<i>P</i>=0.0017). We also found a nontrivial correlation between predicted severity probability and cycle threshold (<i>r</i> = -0.199). Finally, when divided into severity probability quartiles, the group most likely to experience severe illness (≥75% probability) had a Ct of 16.6 (<i>n</i> = 10), whereas the group least likely to experience severe illness (<25% probability) had a Ct of 21.4 (<i>n</i> = 350) (<i>P</i>=0.0045). Taken together, our results suggest that the severity predicted by a genome-based algorithm can be related to clinical diagnostic tests and that relative severity may be inferred from diagnostic values.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 1","pages":"6499217"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173902/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42462486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolutionary Traits and Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in South America.","authors":"Pablo A Ortiz-Pineda,&nbsp;Carlos H Sierra-Torres","doi":"10.1155/2022/8551576","DOIUrl":"10.1155/2022/8551576","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since the zoonotic event from which SARS-CoV-2 started infecting humans late in 2019, the virus has caused more than 5 million deaths and has infected over 500 million people around the world. The pandemic has had a severe impact on social and economic activities, with greater repercussions in low-income countries. South America, with almost 5% of the world's population, has reckoned with almost a fifth of the total people infected and more than 26% (>1/4) of the deceased. Fortunately, the full genome structure and sequence of SARS-CoV-2 have been rapidly obtained and studied thanks to all the scientific efforts and data sharing around the world. Such molecular analysis of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics showed that rates of mutation, similar to other members of the <i>Coronaviridae</i> family, along with natural selection forces, could result in the emergence of new variants; few of them might be of high consequence. However, this is a serious threat to controlling the pandemic and, of course, enduring the process of returning to normalization with the implicit monetary cost of such a contingency. The lack of updated knowledge in South America justifies the need to develop a structured genomic surveillance program of current and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The modeling of the molecular events and microevolution of the virus will contribute to making better decisions on public health management of the pandemic and developing accurate treatments and more efficient vaccines.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 1","pages":"8551576"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9132712/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42016547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the Effect of the Interaction between Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Measures on COVID-19 Incidence.","authors":"Atsegine Canga, Gorka Bidegain","doi":"10.1155/2022/9244953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/9244953","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since December 2019, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly from Wuhan (China) across the globe, affecting more than 200 countries by mid-2021, with over 190 M reported cases and around 4 M fatalities. During the first year of the pandemic, affected countries implemented a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions to control virus transmission. In December 2020, countries started administering several authorised vaccines under a limited supply scenario. In this context, the aim of this study was to develop a SEIR-type continuous-time deterministic disease model, to determine the impact of interaction between different vaccination scenarios and levels of protection measures on disease incidence. For this, the model incorporates (i) a protection measure including low (self-protection), medium (mobility limitation), high (closure of indoor facilities), and very high (lockdown) protection levels, (ii) quarantine for confirmed cases, and (iii) vaccination rate and efficacy of four types of vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, and Janssen). The model was verified and evaluated using the response timeline and vaccination strategies and rates in the Basque Country (N. Spain). Once the model performance was validated, different initial phase (when 30% of the population is vaccinated) vaccination scenarios were simulated, including (i) a realistic vaccine limited supply scenario and (ii) four potential full vaccine supply scenarios where a unique vaccine type is administered. Significant differences in disease prevalence and cumulative mortality were found between vaccination scenarios for low and medium-level protection measures. For high-level protection measures, any vaccine scenario is effective at limiting the virus transmission and disease mortality. The results obtained here may vary in further studies since there may be some unpredictable factors/covariates. With this in mind, the model here could be easily applied to other regions or countries, modifying the strategies implemented and initial conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 ","pages":"9244953"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8968356/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of Evidence-Based COVID-19 Management Guidelines for Local Context: The Methodological Challenges.","authors":"Sarah Nadeem,&nbsp;Salima Saleem Aamdani,&nbsp;Bushra Ayub,&nbsp;Nashia Ali Rizvi,&nbsp;Fatima Safi Arslan,&nbsp;Russell Seth Martins,&nbsp;Maria Khan,&nbsp;Syed Faisal Mahmood","doi":"10.1155/2022/4240378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4240378","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background: &lt;/strong&gt;The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented as a therapeutic challenge for clinicians worldwide due to its rapid spread along with evolving evidence and understanding of the disease. Internationally, recommendations to guide the management of COVID-19 have been created and updated continuously by the WHO and CDC, which have been locally adapted by different countries. Similarly, Pakistan's National Command Operation Center (NCOC), in its national COVID-19 management strategy, generated guidelines for national implementation. Keeping the guidelines updated has proved challenging globally and locally. Here, we present a summary of the process to assess the evidence, including a time-restricted systematic review based on NCOC Clinical Management Guidelines for COVID-19 Infections v4 published on 11&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; December 2020 version, correlating it with current recommendations and with input one of the guidelines authors, particularly noting the methodological challenges.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;We conducted a systematic review synthesizing global research on treatment options for COVID-19 hospitalized patients, limiting it to pharmacological interventions for hospitalized COVID-19 patients included in Pakistan's NCOC's national guidelines v4 published on 11&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; December 2020. Each treatment recommendation's strength and quality of evidence was assessed based on the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) methodology. These were then compared to the most current living WHO COVID-19 pharmacological treatment guidelines v7.1. One of the authors of the NCOC guidelines reviewed and commented on the findings as well.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results: &lt;/strong&gt;We note that the data from our systematic review strongly supports corticosteroids use in treating severe and critically ill COVID-19 hospitalized patients correlating with WHO v7.1 guidelines 24 September 2021. However, evidence from our review and WHO v7.1 for the use of tocilizumab had some conflicting evidence, with data from our review until December 2020 supporting only a weak recommendation for its use, compared to the strong recommendation by the WHO for the use of tocilizumab in patients with severe or critical COVID-19 infection. Regarding the use of antibiotics and ivermectin use in treating COVID-19 hospitalized patients, data from our review and WHO v 7.1 recommend against their use.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusion: &lt;/strong&gt;Research data about the efficacy and safety of pharmacological interventions to treat hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are rapidly evolving, and based on it, the evidence for or against recommendations changes accordingly. Our study illustrates the challenges of keeping up with the evidence; the recommendations were based on studies up till December 2021, and we have compared our recommendations with the WHO v7.1, which showed some significant changes in the use of pharmacologica","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 ","pages":"4240378"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9020141/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9173438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Considerations of Autonomy in Guiding Decisions around the Feedback of Individual Genetic Research Results from Genomics Research: Expectations of and Preferences from Researchers in Botswana.","authors":"Mary Kasule,&nbsp;Mogomotsi Matshaba,&nbsp;Erisa Mwaka,&nbsp;Ambroise Wonkam,&nbsp;Jantina de Vries","doi":"10.1155/2022/3245206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3245206","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Human Health and Heredity (H3Africa) Consortium continues to generate large amounts of genomic data leading to new insights into health and disease among African populations. This has however generated debate among stakeholders involved in developing, implementing, and applying ethical standards and policies for the return of individual genetic research results. The key questions are about when results must, should, may, or must not be returned and by whom. This study aimed to explore the views on the feedback of individual pertinent and incidental genetic research results of researchers, ethics committee members, and policymakers in Botswana.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In-depth interviews were conducted with 16 key stakeholders from academic, research institutions, and regulatory bodies in Botswana. An analysis of the coded data was done through an iterative process of analytic induction to document and interpret themes and patterns.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall, the study indicated that researchers have at least a partial obligation to return individual genetic research results to research participants. Respondents placed emphasis on the ethical principle of autonomy. They felt that it was inappropriate for researchers to make decisions about the return of results on participants' behalf except in situations of avoiding participant self-harm or harm to society.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Findings helped to highlight the importance of considering participants' autonomy in the development of sustainable and credible guidelines for feedback of findings from genomics research in Botswana, which can be explained during community engagement and consent processes. Such guidelines would ultimately be used to develop policies, guide African genomics research, and promote participant autonomy, transparency, and possibly participant trust in research.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2022 ","pages":"3245206"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8989579/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9540759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Main Patterns in the Trend Change of Stomach Cancer Incidence amongst Selected African Countries.","authors":"Fahimeh Shokouhi,&nbsp;Aida Amiripour,&nbsp;Hadi Raeisi Shahraki","doi":"10.1155/2021/5065707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5065707","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Aim: </strong>The current study aimed to investigate the trend changes of stomach cancer incidence amongst African countries and identify the main patterns.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The annual reports of stomach cancer incidence rate (per 100,000 people) for males and females in 53 African countries from 1990 to 2016 were maintained from the World Health Organization archive. The growth mixture model was used for fitting the models in Mplus 7.4. The estimated linear trend in each pattern was characterized by intercept (the rate at 1990) and slope (the observed biennial trend changes), and finally, each country was grouped into a cluster with the most similar pattern.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Three main patterns for males and two main patterns for females were determined. For males, the first cluster, containing Cape Verde, Central African Republic, and Mauritius, showed a sharp fall, while countries in the second pattern including Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Gambia, Libya, Malawi, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, and Tunisia were categorized in a pattern with a slight decrease, and other 43 countries were in the third pattern with a moderate falling trend. For females, 19 countries including Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Congo Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe were categorized in the moderate-to-high falling pattern, but the other 34 countries had a gentle downward pattern.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Although most of the observed trends of stomach cancer were falling, only a few countries had experienced a favorable decreasing trend (three countries in male incidence and nineteen countries in female incidence). Therefore, taking effective actions to accelerate the observed falling trends seems necessary.</p>","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":"2021 ","pages":"5065707"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8718290/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39816942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the Effect of the Interaction between Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Measures on COVID-19 Incidence","authors":"Atsegine Canga, G. Bidegain","doi":"10.1101/2021.11.29.21266986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.29.21266986","url":null,"abstract":"Since December 2019, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly from Wuhan (China) across the globe, affecting more than 200 countries by mid-2021, with over 190 M reported cases and around 4 M fatalities. During the first year of the pandemic, affected countries implemented a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control virus transmission. In December 2020, countries started administering several authorised vaccines under a limited supply scenario. In this context, a SEIR-type continuous-time deterministic disease model was developed to explore the effect of vaccination in terms of vaccination rate and efficacy, together with varying non-pharmaceutical protection measures, on disease incidence in the initial phase of vaccination. For this, the model incorporates (i) a protection measure including low (self-protection), medium (mobility limitation), high (closure of indoor facilities) and very high (lockdown) protection levels, (ii) quarantine for confirmed cases, and (iii) vaccination rate and efficacy of four type of vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca or Janssen). The model was veri[fi]ed and evaluated using the response timeline and vaccination strategies and rates in the Basque Country (N. Spain). Once the model performance was validated, different initial phase (when 30% of the population is vaccinated) vaccination scenarios were simulated, including (i) a realistic vaccine limited supply scenario, and (ii) four potential full vaccine supply scenarios where a unique vaccine type is administered. The Pfizer scenario resulted in the lowest prevalence of infection and cumulative mortality, particularly for low- and medium-level protection rates. However, regardless of the administered vaccine, a high-level protection scenario is the most effective to control the virus transmission and disease mortality in the studied initial phase of vaccination. The model here, which is based on this example, could be easily applied to other regions or countries, modifying the strategies implemented and initial conditions.","PeriodicalId":44052,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49413689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}