Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献

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Landscape and ecosystem health dynamics in response to terrain in southwest China's karst mountains: A study with evidence since 1980 中国西南喀斯特山区景观与生态系统健康动态对地形的响应:1980年以来的证据研究
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100923
Limin Yu , Lijie Pu
{"title":"Landscape and ecosystem health dynamics in response to terrain in southwest China's karst mountains: A study with evidence since 1980","authors":"Limin Yu ,&nbsp;Lijie Pu","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The karst mountainous regions in southwest China have long been a key area for ecological restoration. As an important indicator of environmental quality, ecosystem health plays a crucial role in evaluating the effectiveness of ecological restoration efforts. However, current research lacks a multidimensional perspective that integrates terrain and geology to reveal the evolution of ecological environments in karst mountain regions. This study develops a theoretical framework for the dynamic response mechanism of mountain ecosystem health based on a stepwise research paradigm: “geological background—terrain constraints—land use—landscape pattern—ecosystem health.” Using the mountainous regions of southwest China as a case study, we examined the evolution of landscape patterns and ecosystem health from 1980 to 2020, employing spatial analysis methods. By utilizing a random forest algorithm with a goodness-of-fit of 0.903, we revealed the response mechanisms of ecosystem health to terrain, landscape patterns, and land use. The results showed that landscape pattern evolution under karst geological conditions contributed more to global vegetation greening than in non-karst regions. By 2020, the ecosystem health index had increased to 0.56, with the average healthy area accounting for 48.23 % of the total region. Overall, landscape patterns exhibited trends of diversification and fragmentation. Farmland landscapes shifted toward low-mountain and valley regions, while woodland landscapes expanded in high-mountain and steep-slope areas. Ecosystem health in mountainous regions displayed a three-dimensional pattern of high–low–high. Land use and landscape patterns in mountainous areas significantly influenced ecosystem health. The findings provide a scientific foundation for ecological restoration and the sustainable development of landscapes in karst mountainous regions and other ecologically fragile areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100923"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainability-based policy planning: A hybrid fuzzy MCDM-derived evaluation of cropping systems in a semi-arid region of Iran 基于可持续性的政策规划:基于混合模糊mcdm的伊朗半干旱区种植制度评价
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100925
Saeed Mahmoudi, Abdolmajid Mahdavi Damghani, Hossein Mahmoudi, Jafar Kambouzia
{"title":"Sustainability-based policy planning: A hybrid fuzzy MCDM-derived evaluation of cropping systems in a semi-arid region of Iran","authors":"Saeed Mahmoudi,&nbsp;Abdolmajid Mahdavi Damghani,&nbsp;Hossein Mahmoudi,&nbsp;Jafar Kambouzia","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural systems in rural Iran, particularly in Sarpole-Zahab County, are undergoing significant transformations due to environmental stressors, economic constraints, and socio-political disruptions. These changes have led to shifts in cropping systems, raising questions about their sustainability and long-term viability for rural development. The study aims to assess and compare the sustainability of five dominant cropping systems in the region using a comprehensive, multidimensional framework grounded in environmental, economic, and social indicators. A hybrid Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS decision-making model was applied. Twenty-two sustainability indicators were selected through literature review and expert consultation. Five cropping systems were evaluated based on expert assessments using fuzzy logic, and the alternatives were ranked accordingly. The Integrated crop-horticulture system ranked highest in sustainability (CL = 0.701747), followed by Integrated crop-livestock (CL = 0.671197) and Commercial mono-cropping (CL = 0.607446). Systems such as Double-cropping and Mono-cropping with government procurement were found least sustainable, largely due to environmental degradation and socio-economic inefficiencies. The findings provide crucial insights for policymakers and stakeholders, offering evidence-based recommendations for promoting sustainable cropping strategies. The hybrid approach used also serves as a replicable model for sustainability assessment in other semi-arid and socio-economically vulnerable regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100925"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrated scenario-based approach for evaluating water yield responses to land use and climate change 基于情景的综合方法评估产水量对土地利用和气候变化的响应
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100919
Bahman Veisi Nabikandi , Farzin Shahbazi , Faeze Shoja , Alessio Russo
{"title":"An integrated scenario-based approach for evaluating water yield responses to land use and climate change","authors":"Bahman Veisi Nabikandi ,&nbsp;Farzin Shahbazi ,&nbsp;Faeze Shoja ,&nbsp;Alessio Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100919","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100919","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of water yield (WY) as a key ecosystem service (ES) is crucial, as it is strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities. This study focuses on the Tajan Watershed (Mazandaran Province), Iran, a region affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. The CA-Markov model was used to predict LULC for 2040 based on three scenarios: i) Natural Development (ND); ii) Ecological Conservation (EC); and iii) Anthropogenic Space Restrictions (ASR). Climate change assessments for 2024–2040 were projected using the MRI-ESM2-0 model under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The InVEST model was implemented to calculate WY based on the studied scenarios. The prepared LULC maps for 2000–2024 using Landsat family images showed that forest and barren areal extent have decreased; in contrast, cropland, construction land, and water bodies have increased. A similar trend was also found for 2040 when using the ND scenario. Regarding the EC scenario, the highest variation was observed for cropland (13.6 %) and forest (11.5 %). The third examined scenario demonstrated that cropland and construction land areas have declined by 6.5 % and 1.5 %, respectively. These changes directly impact WY. For instance, it has decreased by 6.67 million cubic meters (MCM) over the last 24 years. The results imply that the highest WY (in MCM) was for the scenarios of ND (54.99), followed by EC (53.35) and ASR (36.19). This research highlights the novel use of remote sensing in ecological modeling, particularly in data-limited areas. It also enhances our understanding of WY dynamics under the combined impacts of LULC and climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100919"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood hazard and risk assessment using GIS and remote sensing in the case of Ziway Lake watershed, central Main Ethiopian Rift 利用地理信息系统和遥感对埃塞俄比亚裂谷中部Ziway湖流域的洪水灾害和风险进行评估
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100920
Musa Husein , Tariku Takele , Dechasa Diriba , Shankar Karuppannan
{"title":"Flood hazard and risk assessment using GIS and remote sensing in the case of Ziway Lake watershed, central Main Ethiopian Rift","authors":"Musa Husein ,&nbsp;Tariku Takele ,&nbsp;Dechasa Diriba ,&nbsp;Shankar Karuppannan","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Among the most destructive natural disasters, floods cause more property damage and fatalities than any other natural hazard. This research aimed to identify flood hazard and risk-prone areas in Ziway Lake watershed, which is situated in the central Main Ethiopian Rift, utilizing geospatial technology such as GIS (geographic information system) and remote sensing techniques. Flood hazard zones have been mapped by analyzing eleven significant indicators: Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), elevation, slope, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), drainage density, rainfall, land-use, soil texture, distance from rivers, distance from roads, and lithology. The weightage of each factor was assigned using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Three main factors, such as population density, flood hazard, and land-use, have been employed to identify flood risk zones. According to the flood hazard map, 60 % of watersheds (4371 km<sup>2</sup>) fall within the high to very high-risk zones. The rest are classified as moderate (1995 km<sup>2</sup> or 27 %) and low (906 km<sup>2</sup> or 12 %), while the high and very high categories specifically account for 2328 km<sup>2</sup> (32 %) and 2043 km<sup>2</sup> (28 %), respectively. According to the flood risk map, 2424 km<sup>2</sup> (35 %) of the region is located in areas with high to very high flood risk. Historical flood data verified the model's reliability and accuracy in identifying regions vulnerable to floods. The findings can be valuable tools for decision-makers to guide preventive measures, improve land use planning, and enhance flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100920"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ericaria amentacea natural capital: the hidden treasure of Mediterranean midlittoral environments 埃里卡自然资本:地中海中部环境的隐藏宝藏
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100918
L. Cannarozzi , I. Rigo , F. Ruggeri , V. Asnaghi , M. Chiantore , A. Falace , R. Bordoni , P. Vassallo , C. Paoli , S. Bevilacqua
{"title":"Ericaria amentacea natural capital: the hidden treasure of Mediterranean midlittoral environments","authors":"L. Cannarozzi ,&nbsp;I. Rigo ,&nbsp;F. Ruggeri ,&nbsp;V. Asnaghi ,&nbsp;M. Chiantore ,&nbsp;A. Falace ,&nbsp;R. Bordoni ,&nbsp;P. Vassallo ,&nbsp;C. Paoli ,&nbsp;S. Bevilacqua","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Italy, the \"Environmental Accounting in Italian Marine Protected Areas\" (EAMPA) research program assessed the natural capital within Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The program did not include the midlittoral rocky habitats, where several brown algae of the complex <em>Cystoseira sensu lato</em> thrive, representing ecosystem engineers. Among these, <em>Ericaria amentacea</em> is a sensitive species undergoing decline across the Mediterranean. In this study, the value of <em>E. amentacea</em> stands was assessed in two MPAs (Portofino MPA-PFN and Ciclopi Islands MPA-CIC) during two phenological stages: (quiescent and vegetative). Results showed no significant differences between MPAs, while temporal differences were significant. Indeed, integrating the separate contributions of the perennial cauloid and deciduous fronds allowed a more refined assessment of the effective value of <em>E. amentacea</em> canopies and an estimate of their flows. During the vegetative phase, when branch grow (flows), the value concentrates in the canopy (PFN: quiescent phase 1.64E+12 sej/m<sup>2</sup>, vegetative phase 6.21E+12 sej/m<sup>2</sup>; CIC: quiescent phase 1.28E+12 sej/m<sup>2</sup>, vegetative phase 2.96E+12 sej/m<sup>2</sup>). These findings highlight the role of this habitat as a biodiversity hotspot.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100918"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Use of lake deposits to reconstruct the effects of multiple environmental stressors on landslide-derived sediment in the Daliang mountain region, SW China 利用湖泊沉积物重建多重环境压力对大凉山地区滑坡沉积物的影响
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100921
Han Wu , Jinzhao Hu , Jie Zhang , Feng Zhao , Liang Zhang , Haiyan He , Qian Wang
{"title":"Use of lake deposits to reconstruct the effects of multiple environmental stressors on landslide-derived sediment in the Daliang mountain region, SW China","authors":"Han Wu ,&nbsp;Jinzhao Hu ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Feng Zhao ,&nbsp;Liang Zhang ,&nbsp;Haiyan He ,&nbsp;Qian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessment of historical landslide-derived sediment dynamics can improve our understanding of the temporal pattern of landslide erosion under environmental changes to help inform better management strategies. The Daliang Mountain region, featured by frequent seismic activities and concentrated precipitation, is highly prone to landslide erosion in Southwest China and has experienced intense human disturbance over the past several decades. Here, we reconstructed the proportion of sediment and associated sediment deposition rates derived from landslide (<em>DRs</em>) recorded in the dated lake deposits in response to seismic activity, climate change, and human activities in a representative tectonically active catchment from the Daliang Mountain region, using a machine learning algorithm and Bayesian model. Three geochemical tracer sets (i.e., element (E) set, specific element ratios (S) set, and their combination set (E + S), were respectively examined to discriminate between landslide and other sediment sources. The results indicate that landslide erosion was the dominant source, contributing over 70 % of the core sediment in the representative core. We identified three general stages of “increasing <em>DRs</em>→highest <em>DRs</em>→decreasing <em>DRs</em>” reflecting environmental changes in the region over the past 70 years. Before 1966, land reclamation promoted by the Yi serfdom reform and the Cheng-Kun Railway's construction, exacerbated massive deforestation, causing a rapid increase in <em>DRs</em> during the initial period. <em>DRs</em> were the highest during 1967–2004 due to the combined effects of frequent seismic events and intensified precipitation. The decreasing <em>DRs</em> during the latest stage (after 2005) correspond to the implementation of check dam initiatives. These findings improve our understanding of the temporal pattern of landslide erosion in response to environmental changes impacted by multiple factors, providing evidence for supporting landslide risk management in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100921"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development of universal response functions for transfer of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in subtropical China 杉木(Cunninghamia lanceolata)转移的通用响应函数的建立钩。在中国亚热带
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100917
Hong Wang , Aiguo Duan , Jianguo Zhang
{"title":"Development of universal response functions for transfer of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in subtropical China","authors":"Hong Wang ,&nbsp;Aiguo Duan ,&nbsp;Jianguo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reanalysis of historical provenance trial data yields critical knowledge that can enhance climate change adaptation. The universal response functions (URFs) were developed for 205 populations of Chinese fir (<em>Cunninghamia lanceolata</em> (Lamb.) Hook.) growing at 32 planting sites in subtropical China. Tree growths were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from three climate models for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, under three scenarios of trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585). Mean coldest month temperature (MCMT) of provenance and test site explained 33.8–41.8 % of population variation in regressions that were statistically significant. However, growth performance was mainly related to MCMT at test site and, to a lesser degree, to MCMT at seed origin, indicating a pronounced environmental response of Chinese fir populations. There was a clear indication of a climatic optimum in central regions, and the growth of Chinese fir is expected to be limited at sites with the MCMT of more than approximately 8 °C under climate warming. The URFs’ explicit predictions indicated that populations from northern regions exhibited a moderate increase in growth, while for southern populations, a marked reduction in growth will be observed. Under severe global warming (SSP585), local populations at the southern margins might face extirpation. Assisted migration could help most populations take advantage of potential growth opportunities in warmer climates. As an important tree species in subtropical plantations, the lessons learnt from Chinese fir will help to avoid potential maladaptation of forests to future climates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100917"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrated fire risk assessment using time-series satellite data and multi-criteria decision-making techniques 基于时间序列卫星数据和多准则决策技术的综合火灾风险评估
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100916
Abdul Majed Bostani , Sharareh Pourebrahim
{"title":"Integrated fire risk assessment using time-series satellite data and multi-criteria decision-making techniques","authors":"Abdul Majed Bostani ,&nbsp;Sharareh Pourebrahim","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fire risk assessment is a vital aspect of forest management and strategic planning. This study develops an integrated fire risk model using time-series satellite data to identify key vegetation, anthropogenic, and climate-related factors. Analysis was conducted on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, focusing on two forested regions in Kurdistan, Iran, with high-quality imagery from 2013 to 2024. Relevant indices derivable from satellite data were ranked and weighted using Shannon Entropy and the TOPSIS technique, based on six criteria: intensity, cumulative impact, cause-effect relationship, data validation, data availability, and recurrence in research studies. Additionally, index weights were determined through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on survey responses. These indices were mapped using the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach. High-resolution imagery from Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, MODIS, and other sources was used to map indices including dNBR, NDVI, NDWI, Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation, slope, aspect, elevation, and distances to settlements, rivers, and roads. Results showed that recurrence in research studies, with the lowest entropy value of 0.9320, significantly influenced the selection of effective indices. Among eleven indices, dNBR ranked the highest in importance. Sensitivity analysis revealed that LST had the strongest influence on wildfire risk, highlighting its critical role under changing climate conditions. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) were used to assess the accuracy of the fire risk model. For the Marivan and Sarvabad study areas, the AUC had a value of 0.93. The results of this study can assist decision-makers to prevent forest fires and minimize forest damage in Kurdistan province.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100916"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145045671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Linking climate vulnerability and future distribution for the threatened lesser-known species, Sumatran serow: A spatial conservation perspective 连接气候脆弱性和未来分布的受威胁的鲜为人知的物种,苏门答腊雪:一个空间保护的观点
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100915
Dede Aulia Rahman , Sutopo Sutopo , Misbah Satria Giri , Rikha Aryanie Surya , Mafrikhul Muttaqin , Aryo Adhi Condro
{"title":"Linking climate vulnerability and future distribution for the threatened lesser-known species, Sumatran serow: A spatial conservation perspective","authors":"Dede Aulia Rahman ,&nbsp;Sutopo Sutopo ,&nbsp;Misbah Satria Giri ,&nbsp;Rikha Aryanie Surya ,&nbsp;Mafrikhul Muttaqin ,&nbsp;Aryo Adhi Condro","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Medium-large herbivores are crucial indicators of ecosystem health, representing biodiversity, trophic dynamics, and habitat integrity. The Sumatran serow (<em>Capricornis sumatraensis sumatraensis</em>), a threatened subspecies endemic to Sumatra, is increasingly impacted by anthropogenic activities, poaching, and climate change. This study applied five species distribution models (SDMs)— maximum entropy, random forest, support vector machine, boosted regression trees, and an ensemble algorithm—to predict current and future potential distributions and to identify key ecological indicators influencing serow habitats. Future projections were generated based on two climate change scenarios: mitigation (SSP2) and business-as-usual (SSP5). Among the predictors, mean temperature, distance to timber plantations, and slope were identified as the strongest determinants of habitat suitability. Model outputs suggest a habitat decline of 40.1 % under SSP2 and 48.4 % under SSP5 compared to the current distribution. Additionally, the Sumatran serow's range is projected to experience a 25 % contraction, with 16 % of the range gaining suitability and 41 % becoming unsuitable under SSP2. Under SSP5, a greater contraction of 48 % is expected, with 56 % of the present range predicted to become unsuitable. Potential refugia for the serow are notably smaller under the worst-case scenario (SSP5) compared to mitigation. Our results emphasize the immediate need to integrate climate resilience into conservation planning by identifying climatically favorable habitats and maintaining habitat suitability over time. This study provides critical insights for developing sustainable conservation strategies to ensure the Sumatran serow's persistence, while offering broader implications for biodiversity management under climate change pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100915"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145045711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change and sustainable development new evidence from the Gulf cooperation Council economies 气候变化和可持续发展来自海湾合作委员会经济体的新证据
IF 5.6
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100907
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Ijaz Younis
{"title":"Climate change and sustainable development new evidence from the Gulf cooperation Council economies","authors":"Alanoud Al-Maadid,&nbsp;Mohamed Sami Ben Ali,&nbsp;Ijaz Younis","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100907","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100907","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the effects of climate change, trade, population, foreign direct investment, GDP, technological innovation, and natural resource rents on sustainable development in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from 2001 to 2020. The primary objective is to understand how these factors contribute to or hinder sustainable development in the region. Using the descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root tests, cointegration tests, and, Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Quantile on Quantile, Granger causality tests, we assess the short- and long-term relationships between these variables. The findings indicate that technological innovation and climate change significantly influence sustainable development, especially at the lower and mean quantiles, suggesting that adapting to technological change and mitigating climate change are key to sustainability. Additionally, the study reveals complex, nonlinear relationships among these variables, with technological innovation, GDP, and population exerting long-term impacts, whereas natural resource rents and FDI negatively affect sustainability in the short term. The Granger causality results further show that variables such as temperature, natural resources, and FDI influence sustainable development, while GDP, population, and technological innovation exhibit bidirectional causal relationships. These results have important policy implications for enhancing sustainability in the GCC region by integrating climate adaptation strategies and fostering technological advancement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"28 ","pages":"Article 100907"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145045710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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