Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献

Understanding flood and drought extremes under a changing climate in the Blue Nile Basin: A review

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100638

Demelash Ademe Malede , Vetrimurugan Elumalai , Tesfa Gebrie Andualem , Yilkal Gebeyehu Mekonnen , Mesenbet Yibeltal , Girum Getachew Demeke , Tena Alamirew , Shimelash Molla Kassaye , Yonas Gebreslasie Hagos , Anmut Enawgaw Kassie , Mulatu Kassa , Gizachew Sewagegn Berihun , Ram L. Ray

{"title":"Understanding flood and drought extremes under a changing climate in the Blue Nile Basin: A review","authors":"Demelash Ademe Malede , Vetrimurugan Elumalai , Tesfa Gebrie Andualem , Yilkal Gebeyehu Mekonnen , Mesenbet Yibeltal , Girum Getachew Demeke , Tena Alamirew , Shimelash Molla Kassaye , Yonas Gebreslasie Hagos , Anmut Enawgaw Kassie , Mulatu Kassa , Gizachew Sewagegn Berihun , Ram L. Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100638","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100638","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme flood and drought events arise from temporal and spatial variations in the Earth's water cycle, significantly affecting water resources and the environment. This review aimed to evaluate the effects of climate variabilities on extreme flood and drought events within the Blue Nile Basin. A systematic literature review and content analysis were conducted to understand the hydrological dynamics of floods and droughts. A Scopus database was used to find relevant literature review articles related to flood and drought extreme events using search terms queries. The findings suggest that rising temperatures and fluctuating precipitation patterns are leading to more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Future projections also suggest increased drought severity in most basin areas, coupled with more frequent floods. Fluctuations between dry and wet conditions have intensified these extremes. While insufficient rainfall triggers droughts, excessive and concentrated rainfall contributes to floods. The wet projection shows more frequent floods, while the dry projection indicates severe droughts throughout most of the basin. This review provides a valuable starting point for further action towards a more climate-resilient and water-secure for sustainable environmental development and management over the basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100638"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143428129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions in technology revolution 5.0: New insights in Vietnam

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100636

Vu Ngoc Xuan

{"title":"Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions in technology revolution 5.0: New insights in Vietnam","authors":"Vu Ngoc Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research investigates the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions within the context of Revolution 5.0, offering new insights specific to Vietnam. Understanding the environmental implications becomes imperative as the world undergoes unprecedented technological advancements. Data is collected in the World Bank from 2000 to 2023. The study used the random effect model- REM method, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, which examines both short- and long-term relationships among the variables. The analysis of GDP sheds light on the nation's economic growth, emphasizing the sectors contributing significantly to this expansion and addressing associated challenges and opportunities. Migration patterns are explored to understand their impact on the workforce and demographics, considering influencing policies and factors. Population dynamics are scrutinized to reveal trends and factors affecting growth or decline, mainly the demographic dividend. Carbon dioxide emissions are investigated to comprehend their sources and contributors while exploring governmental initiatives aimed at environmental sustainability. The empirical results show that if Vietnam's gross domestic product is up by 1%, carbon dioxide emissions are down by 0.49%. If the Vietnam migration is up by 1%, carbon dioxide emissions are up by 2.11%. If the population is up by 1%, the carbon dioxide emissions are up by 14.62%. If Vietnam's renewable energy consumption is up by 1%, carbon dioxide emissions are down 0.388%. The study recognizes the interconnectedness of these factors, and the paper concludes by summarizing key insights and discussing their implications for Vietnam's future economic and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, it provides recommendations for policymakers and suggests avenues for future research to deepen our understanding of Vietnam's evolving socioeconomic landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100636"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143428131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Soil quality dynamics in response to land-use management types and slope positions in northeastern highlands of Ethiopia

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100641

Andualem Belay , Mohammed Assen , Assefa Abegaz

{"title":"Soil quality dynamics in response to land-use management types and slope positions in northeastern highlands of Ethiopia","authors":"Andualem Belay , Mohammed Assen , Assefa Abegaz","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address watershed degradation in Ethiopia's northeastern highlands, diverse land-use management (LUM) practices have been implemented. However, their impacts on soil quality (SQ) vary, particularly across topographic slopes, which significantly influence erosion rates, water retention, and nutrient dynamics. Understanding these variations is crucial for designing targeted soil management strategies. This study evaluated SQ under five LUM types—enhanced forest (EF), agroforestry (AF), controlled grazing (CG), croplands with improved bunds (BCL), and traditional management (TCL)—across three slope positions in the Upper Gelana watershed. Seventy-one composite soil samples (0–30 cm) were analyzed for key SQ indicators, and Principal Component Analysis identified SOC, TN, CEC, bulk density, clay fraction, and available phosphorus as a minimum dataset for computing a soil quality index (SQI). Results revealed significant (p < 0.05) impacts of LUM types and slope positions on SQ parameters. SQI rankings were EF > AF > CG > BCL > TCL. EF soils in lower slopes achieved the highest SQI (0.981) due to superior SOC, TN, and CEC, offering benchmarks for sustainable management. AF maintained high SQI (>0.8) consistently across all slopes, demonstrating its potential for restoring degraded landscapes. TCL in upper slopes had the lowest SQI (0.6), indicating severe degradation and an urgent need to implement slope-specific management strategies, such as contour bunds with vegetation reinforcements to mitigate erosion. These findings underscore the need for integrated soil management strategies tailored to each land-use and slope needs. SQI can be used as a valuable diagnostic tool for guiding adaptive management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100641"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The carbon footprint of football fans: Emotional and rational correlates of home and away game travel

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100635

Christian Kraft , Christoph Bühren , Pamela Wicker

{"title":"The carbon footprint of football fans: Emotional and rational correlates of home and away game travel","authors":"Christian Kraft , Christoph Bühren , Pamela Wicker","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the carbon footprint generated by football fans traveling to German third-division league games during the 2023/24 season, analyzing both emotional (connectedness to nature) and rational determinants of seasonal carbon footprint (environmental knowledge, perceived environmental pollution, and transport-specific environmental consciousness). The analysis is grounded in the value-belief-norm theory, which suggests that pro-environmental behavior is driven by personal norms, beliefs, and values. An online survey of 815 fans was conducted to outline their match-related travel behavior. The findings revealed that the average seasonal carbon footprint per fan was 438.45 kg CO<sub>2</sub>-e, with car travel contributing to 82% of the total emissions. Regression analyses showed that only transport-specific environmental consciousness of fans significantly reduced their carbon emissions. This finding suggests that rational determinants may play a stronger role in shaping pro-environmental behavior than emotional ones. The results offer policymakers strategies to mitigate fan travel emissions in professional sports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100635"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143428130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How people perceive invasion impacts: Is there a match between policymakers and stakeholders?

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100633

Filipe Banha , António Moreira Diniz , Pedro Manuel Anastácio

{"title":"How people perceive invasion impacts: Is there a match between policymakers and stakeholders?","authors":"Filipe Banha , António Moreira Diniz , Pedro Manuel Anastácio","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Invasive alien species (IAS) pose significant threats to biodiversity, socioeconomic activities, and human health, prompting global legislative efforts to address their impacts. The European Union (EU) has been at the forefront of IAS management, implementing comprehensive regulations. However, the diverse cultural landscape of the EU complicates effective execution. This study, conducted within the EU LIFE INVASAQUA project, explores public perceptions of IAS impacts and evaluates the cultural and gender equivalence of a questionnaire designed to measure IAS awareness in freshwater and estuarine systems on the Iberian Peninsula. Additionally, we intent to disclose how many dimensions of IAS impacts people perceived, verifying if there are a mismatch between the policymaker's regulation and stakeholder's perceptions. Findings from Spanish and Portuguese respondents revealed two primary dimensions of IAS impacts: the environmental domain, encompassing biodiversity, and the societal domain, combining socioeconomic and human health impacts. While the EU regulation distinguishes between these aspects, stakeholders predominantly perceive them as a single societal dimension, indicating a divergence between policy frameworks and public understanding. Geographic, gender, and educational differences further shaped awareness, with higher literacy levels correlating with greater IAS knowledge. These insights underscore the need for targeted awareness campaigns that address societal heterogeneity and bridge gaps between scientific, policy, and public perspectives. Enhanced stakeholder engagement, validated methodologies, and tailored communication strategies are essential for improving IAS management and fostering societal compliance with regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100633"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fisheries performance indicators for assessing the ecological sustainability of wild-caught seafood products in Europe

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100632

Fabio Grati , Jean-Noël Druon , Didier Gascuel , Christine Absil , François Bastardie , Sara Bonanomi , Gianna Fabi , Gildas Glemarec , Jerome Guitton , Sara Hornborg , Ane Iriondo , Armelle Jung , Stefanos Kalogirou , Daniel Li Veli , Josep Lloret , Christos Maravelias , Dimitrios K. Moutopoulos , Tiit Raid , Anna Rindorf , Antonello Sala , Alessandro Lucchetti

{"title":"Fisheries performance indicators for assessing the ecological sustainability of wild-caught seafood products in Europe","authors":"Fabio Grati , Jean-Noël Druon , Didier Gascuel , Christine Absil , François Bastardie , Sara Bonanomi , Gianna Fabi , Gildas Glemarec , Jerome Guitton , Sara Hornborg , Ane Iriondo , Armelle Jung , Stefanos Kalogirou , Daniel Li Veli , Josep Lloret , Christos Maravelias , Dimitrios K. Moutopoulos , Tiit Raid , Anna Rindorf , Antonello Sala , Alessandro Lucchetti","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing global demand for seafood has intensified pressure on marine resources and hence the need to adopt sustainable fishing practices and promote sustainable products. Raising consumer awareness about the variability in ecological sustainability of seafood is an important tool to facilitate prevention of marine resource overexploitation, minimise the impact of fishing on ecosystems, and ensure long-term renewal of aquatic resources. Here we propose a simple but comprehensive and generic assessment framework with three indicators that inform on the impact of fishing practices on seabed habitats, fish stock status, and bycatch risk of sensitive species for any given product, whether domestically caught or imported, based on publicly available information. A rating scale from 1 to 5 is used for clarity and effectiveness in communicating the respective risks. The indicators provide a user-friendly tool for consumers, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions about seafood sustainability. Our results show contrasted ecological risks among the main fishing methods, which is crucial for value chain actors for making informed choices that support sustainable fishing practices. Our method enables scientifically proven practices for mitigating by-catches of sensitive species to be accounted for. A clear, transparent, fair and adaptable scoring system can enhance societal awareness and steer the market towards more sustainable seafood products.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100632"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143402738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating climate indices and land use practices for comprehensive drought monitoring in Syria: Impacts and implications

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100631

Shifa Mathbout , George Boustras , Pierantonios Papazoglou , Javier Martin Vide , Fatima Raai

{"title":"Integrating climate indices and land use practices for comprehensive drought monitoring in Syria: Impacts and implications","authors":"Shifa Mathbout , George Boustras , Pierantonios Papazoglou , Javier Martin Vide , Fatima Raai","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the dynamics of drought in Syria, highlighting the importance of integrating multiple indices with land-use practices for effective monitoring and mitigation. The Climatic Research Unit Timeseries (CRU TS) dataset aligns strongly with observed data, demonstrating high Correlation Coefficients (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for precipitation and temperature. Despite slight discrepancies, the dataset effectively captures Syria's climatic characteristics. An analysis of drought records from 1981 to 2021 indicates an overall trend of increasing aridity, marked by significant drought events in 1999, 2010, 2014, 2017, and 2021. Temperature-based indices underscore the necessity of incorporating temperature data, especially for semi-arid regions. The study evaluates agricultural drought using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), revealing severe to moderate drought conditions across Syria, with croplands performing slightly better than non-agricultural lands. Correlation analyses of Drought Indices (DIs) demonstrate strong relationships, despite variations in severity classifications. Agricultural Drought Indices (AgrDIs) align more closely with Meteorological Drought Indices (MetDIs), but disparities exist. The intensification of drought has likely exacerbated agricultural challenges, increased socio-economic vulnerabilities, and contributed to unrest and migration, emphasizing the broader geopolitical consequences of climate-induced stress. This underscores the urgent need for further research on future climate risks to water resources, social stability, and economic systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100631"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The response of the water cycle to landscape configuration and composition in two Chilean basins

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100629

Marieta Hernández-Sosa , Mauricio Aguayo , Jorge Hurtado , Ovidio Llompart

{"title":"The response of the water cycle to landscape configuration and composition in two Chilean basins","authors":"Marieta Hernández-Sosa , Mauricio Aguayo , Jorge Hurtado , Ovidio Llompart","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape patterns have an important influence on the hydrological cycle. However, it is still unknown how hydrological processes and streamflow respond to changes in landscape configuration and composition in hydrological basins. The relationship between landscape metrics and hydrological variables in two Chilean basins was analyzed for the last 4 decades. Aggregation, shape and diversity metrics were obtained using Fragstats software, and hydrological components were simulated by the TETIS hydrological model. Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) and partial least squares (PLSR) analysis were used to determine how landscape patterns influence hydrological processes and streamflow behavior. The most significant negative correlations occur in the wet season between aggregation and shape metrics on crop soils and evapotranspiration, infiltration, and baseflow regime behavior. The PLSR analysis shows that the second component-related landscape metrics of young plantations explain the highest percentage of variation in hydrological components. The results of this research improve our understanding of the effects of landscape configuration and composition on the hydrological cycle and can be used for land planning and water resource management within the basins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100629"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does social capital influence the intensity of conservation agriculture adoption among smallholder farmers in Malawi?

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100630

Harry Mathanda , Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri , Adane Tufa , Julius Mangisoni , Arega Alene , Hambulo Ngoma , Horace Happy Phiri , David Chikoye

{"title":"Does social capital influence the intensity of conservation agriculture adoption among smallholder farmers in Malawi?","authors":"Harry Mathanda , Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri , Adane Tufa , Julius Mangisoni , Arega Alene , Hambulo Ngoma , Horace Happy Phiri , David Chikoye","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing persistent food insecurity requires increased and sustained agricultural productivity in spite of compounding challenges of worsening climate shocks and soil degradation. However, despite numerous initiatives by stakeholders like the Malawian government, along with strong scientific evidence supporting Conservation Agriculture (CA), adoption rates in Malawi remain lower than expected. This study examined social capital as a catalyst for the adoption of CA. It used data from 1512 randomly selected smallholder farmers to investigate how different elements of social capital influenced farmers’ decisions to adopt CA practices. The study findings revealed that social capital elements, namely, group membership and relationships with leadership positively influenced CA adoption. Additionally, factors such as cultivated land size, access to extension services, livestock ownership, and credit availability contributed to the number of CA practices adopted. While the transition to full CA adoption remained limited compared to partial adoption, the study revealed promising trends toward greater uptake. Consequently, these findings highlight the need for agricultural policies that promote farmer organizations, community engagement, and training programs to strengthen social networks and enhance the adoption of CA practices in Malawi.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100630"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management

IF 5.4

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.100628

Brian Rotich , Abdalrahman Ahmed , Benjamin Kinyili , Harison Kipkulei

{"title":"Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management","authors":"Brian Rotich , Abdalrahman Ahmed , Benjamin Kinyili , Harison Kipkulei","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100628","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2025.100628","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding historical patterns of forest cover change (FCC) is critical for predicting future trends and informing sustainable management strategies. This study quantified and analyzed historical and projected FCC in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem (MKE), central Kenya. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for 2000, 2014, and 2023 were classified using Random Forest (RF) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Explanatory factors of LULC change (slope, aspect, population density, proximity to rivers, roads, and towns) were used to project LULC for 2035 using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Analysis (CA-MCA).</div><div>Six LULC types (open forest, closed forest, cropland, bareland, built-up, shrubland and grassland) were successfully classified with accuracies exceeding 82.5% and Kappa coefficients above 0.77. Between 2000 and 2023, open forest (+201.12 km<sup>2</sup>), cropland (+218 km<sup>2</sup>), bareland (+290.09 km<sup>2</sup>), and built-up areas (+0.27 km<sup>2</sup>) expanded, while closed forest (−141.55 km<sup>2</sup>) and shrubland and grassland (−567.93 km<sup>2</sup>) declined. An overall Kappa coefficient value of 0.78 and an accuracy of 82% indicated good results for LULC statistics and projected map for 2035. LULC projections for the year 2035 under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario suggest continued expansion of cropland (+174.70 km<sup>2</sup>), built-up areas (+0.49 km<sup>2</sup>), and open forest (+471.72 km<sup>2</sup>), with declines in closed forest (−423.53 km<sup>2</sup>) and shrubland and grassland (−357.79 km<sup>2</sup>).</div><div>These results highlight the ongoing pressures on the MKE's biodiversity and ecosystem services. The study's methods offer a replicable framework for assessing FCC in similar ecosystems to inform evidence-based conservation and land management policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100628"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143377675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0