Linking climate vulnerability and future distribution for the threatened lesser-known species, Sumatran serow: A spatial conservation perspective

Abstract

Medium-large herbivores are crucial indicators of ecosystem health, representing biodiversity, trophic dynamics, and habitat integrity. The Sumatran serow (Capricornis sumatraensis sumatraensis), a threatened subspecies endemic to Sumatra, is increasingly impacted by anthropogenic activities, poaching, and climate change. This study applied five species distribution models (SDMs)— maximum entropy, random forest, support vector machine, boosted regression trees, and an ensemble algorithm—to predict current and future potential distributions and to identify key ecological indicators influencing serow habitats. Future projections were generated based on two climate change scenarios: mitigation (SSP2) and business-as-usual (SSP5). Among the predictors, mean temperature, distance to timber plantations, and slope were identified as the strongest determinants of habitat suitability. Model outputs suggest a habitat decline of 40.1 % under SSP2 and 48.4 % under SSP5 compared to the current distribution. Additionally, the Sumatran serow's range is projected to experience a 25 % contraction, with 16 % of the range gaining suitability and 41 % becoming unsuitable under SSP2. Under SSP5, a greater contraction of 48 % is expected, with 56 % of the present range predicted to become unsuitable. Potential refugia for the serow are notably smaller under the worst-case scenario (SSP5) compared to mitigation. Our results emphasize the immediate need to integrate climate resilience into conservation planning by identifying climatically favorable habitats and maintaining habitat suitability over time. This study provides critical insights for developing sustainable conservation strategies to ensure the Sumatran serow's persistence, while offering broader implications for biodiversity management under climate change pressures.