环境科学最新文献

{"title":"[Spatial Correlation Network Structural Characteristics and Driving Factors of Agricultural \"Carbon Reduction-Pollution Reduction-Green Expansion-Growth\" Synergistic Development in China].","authors":"Yi-Hui Chen, Min-Jie Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Synergistic advancement of carbon reduction， pollution reduction， green expansion， and growth in agriculture constitutes an inevitable strategic choice for driving agricultural green transformation and achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study constructed an evaluation index system consisting of four dimensions and 32 basic indicators to measure the synergistic level of agricultural carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-growth in 30 provinces of China from 2011 to 2022 and employed a modified gravity model and social network analysis to reveal the structural characteristics and driving factors of the spatial correlation network for this synergistic development. The findings showed that： ① From 2011 to 2022， the synergy level of agricultural carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-growth increased from 0.326 to 0.441， transitioning from mild imbalance to near imbalance. However， a prominent regional imbalance persisted， forming a gradient differentiation pattern of \"eastern &gt; central &gt; western.\" ② The spatial correlation network for the synergistic development of agricultural carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-growth formed and was becoming increasingly interconnected. Network connectivity and stability continued to improve， with a noticeable flattening trend in the network structure. However， the system had not yet reached an optimal spatial correlation state. ③ Shanghai， Jiangsu， Beijing， and Guangdong constituted the core layer of the network， serving as both central actors and intermediaries/bridges， while western and northeastern provinces remained in the peripheral zones of the network. ④ The Beijing-Tianjin Region and the Yangtze River Delta constituted stable net beneficiary blocks， functioning as \"benefit highlands\" within the network. Guangdong， Zhejiang， and Fujian formed broker blocks， while central， western， and northeastern provinces composed net spillover blocks， creating a depression effect characterized by \"factor inflows exceeding outflows.\" ⑤ Geographical adjacency， differences in urbanization levels， and technological innovation capabilities positively drove the formation of spatial correlation networks， while differences in agricultural human capital acted as a hindrance. The facilitating effect of differences in transportation infrastructure intensified over time， the impact of differences in digital infrastructure had an inverted \"U\" shape， differences in market maturity and land transfer rate maintained a positive driving force， and the impact of differences in agricultural fiscal support and environmental regulation intensity remained relatively marginal.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4455-4472"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148520966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination Between Digital New Quality Productivity and Energy Carbon Emission Efficiency].","authors":"Dong-Ming Gu, Xiao-Fei Hu, Jia-Ning Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505327","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study employs the Super-SBM model， coupling coordination degree model， spatial correlation analysis， and geographical detector to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination between digital new quality productivity and energy carbon emission efficiency across 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2023. The results indicate： ① Digital new quality productivity exhibited an \"N\"-shaped upward trend， with a spatial distribution pattern of \"eastern &gt; central &gt; western\" regions. Energy carbon emission efficiency showed a \"U\"-shaped trend of initial decline followed by an increase， with overall efficiency improving and a spatial distribution of \"eastern &gt; western &gt; central\" regions. ② The coupling coordination degree between digital new quality productivity and energy carbon emission efficiency displayed an \"N\"-shaped upward trend， spatially characterized by \"eastern &gt; central &gt; western\" regions. By 2018， all provinces transitioned from imbalance to coordination， but the disparity between high and low coupling coordination provinces gradually widened， indicating a trend of multi-tier differentiation. ③ The coupling coordination degree demonstrated significant positive spatial correlation and agglomeration effects， with low-low agglomeration being the dominant local spatial clustering type. ④ Economic development level， urbanization， and R&D intensity were the primary driving factors， while industrial structure， opening-up， environmental regulation， fiscal support， and human capital were secondary drivers. The interaction effects between factors manifested as either dual-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. Clarifying the dynamic changes and driving mechanisms of the coupling and coordination between digital new quality productivity and energy carbon emission efficiency can provide theoretical foundations and practical support for empowering the dual development of the digital new quality productivity and low-carbon energy， as well as achieving the synergistic advancement of the \"Digital China\" and \"dual carbon\" goals.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4317-4328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis of the Synergy Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in China's Provincial Regions and its Drivers].","authors":"Qi-Zhi He, Meng-Juan Guo","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505316","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Promoting the synergistic development of pollution control and carbon emission reduction is the core strategy of China's ecological civilization construction. The study explores the spatial and temporal evolution of the synergistic development of pollution and carbon reduction in 30 Chinese provinces （data for Taiwan， Hong Kong， Macau， and Tibet is currently unavailable） from 2005 to 2022 and the influencing factors by using a combination of coupled coordination models， kernel density estimation， Lasso regression， and XGBoost-SHAP. The study found that， firstly， the level of synergistic pollution reduction and carbon reduction in all provinces in China was generally on the rise， with a spatial pattern of \"high in the east and low in the west，\" and there was a significant positive spatial correlation. Second， Energy consumption was a key constraint variable for synergistic development， and its inhibitory effect was significantly negative. Compared with that in the high-coordinated regions， its inhibitory effect on the low-coordinated regions was more prominent. Third， technological innovation and industrial development optimization positively promoted synergistic effects， while the effects of economic development， green development， and population size showed complex mechanism of stage-specific characteristics. The results of the study reveal the key drivers and constraints of the synergistic development of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and provide important empirical support and policy insights for the formulation of regional differentiated synergistic control strategies and the optimization of resource allocation in order to achieve the goal of \"double carbon.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4544-4557"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in Gansu Province].","authors":"Ming-Rui He, Xiang-Long Tang, Le-Shan Cai, Jing-Bo Xue","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506022","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The secondary industry is an important economic pillar in Northwest China， and industry is an important driving force for the development of Northwest China， and the change of industrial energy consumption has a significant impact on the regional carbon cycle and climate change. Taking Gansu Province as an example， based on the statistical data of 2000-2023， the carbon emissions of energy consumption and industrial energy consumption in Gansu Province were measured by using the greenhouse gas emission coefficient method and the city-scale inventory algorithm. By analyzing the carbon emissions of each city （prefecture）， the growth trend and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity in Gansu Province were studied， and the influencing factors were analyzed by using geographic detectors and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models. The results show that： ① The carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Gansu Province showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2023， increasing from 7 185.21×10⁴ t to 23 675.22×10⁴ t. ② Based on the SLOPE calculation results， the carbon emission areas in Gansu Province could be divided into four categories： rapid growth， medium growth， slower growth， and slow growth. ③ The proportion of fossil energy consumption， the level of urbanization， carbon emission productivity， and the carbon intensity of industrial investment were the key factors driving the continuous growth of industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4271-4284"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Contamination Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances （PFASs） in Surface Waters of Jiujiang Port， Jiangxi Province， China].","authors":"Meng-Jun Zhu, Wei Liao, Xun-Hai Zhang, Ling-Xuan Li, Wen-Qing Tu, Miao Chen","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506230","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To assess the contamination characteristics and ecological risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances （PFASs） in surface waters of Jiujiang Port， Jiangxi Province， China， a total of 27 PFASs from four categories were quantitatively analyzed using solid-phase extraction （SPE） followed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry （LC-MS）. A multi-tiered ecological risk assessment approach was employed to evaluate the potential environmental hazards. The results indicated that 26 PFASs were detected in the water samples， with total concentrations ranging from 177.75 ng·L^-1 to 1 738.13 ng·L^-1. Among them， 12 PFASs showed a 100% detection frequency. Trifluoroacetic acid （TFA） exhibited the highest concentration， with concentration ranges of not-detected （N.D.） to 574.42 ng·L^-1， followed by perfluorotetradecanoic acid （PFTeDA） and perfluorododecanoic acid （PFDoA）， with concentration ranges of N.D.-1 036.30 ng·L^-1 and 7.12-332.32 ng·L^-1， respectively. Risk quotient （RQ） assessment revealed that 17 PFASs posed a high ecological risk， with perfluorooctanoic acid （PFOA）， perfluorononanoic acid （PFNA）， and perfluorooctane sulfonate （PFOS） showing the highest risks. Four PFASs （TFA， PFPeA， PFODA， and NEtFOSAA） exhibited moderate risk levels， while three compounds （PFHpA， PFPrA， and 6∶2 FTSA） were categorized as low-risk. The optimized RQ approach （RQ_f） showed that the RQ_f values of PFOA， PFNA， and PFOS exceeded 1 000， and all three compounds exceeded the predicted no-effect concentration （PNEC） in 100% of samples， indicating a high ecological risk. Joint probability curves （JPCs） analysis showed that the maximum risk product （RP_max） of PFNA was 4.99%， suggesting low risk to 0.3%-6% of aquatic organisms. The RP_max of PFOS was 5.87%， corresponding to low risk to 0.3%-11% of aquatic organisms， whereas PFOA presented negligible ecological risk. The above findings indicate that certain PFASs in surface waters of Jiujiang Port， Jiangxi Province， pose non-negligible ecological risks. The risk assessment based on JPCs， which integrates region-wide exposure data and species-specific aquatic toxicity data， provides a more robust and reliable evaluation. To enhance the accuracy of ecological risk assessment， it is essential to minimize uncertainties in the evaluation process. Developing effective mitigation strategies based on more comprehensive risk assessment approaches is crucial for reducing the ecological and human health risks posed by PFASs.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4596-4606"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148520990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Impact Effects and Mechanisms of New Quality Productive Forces on the Synergistic Effects of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Mitigation].","authors":"De-Shan Li, Zi-Xuan Jia","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506020","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The development of new quality productive forces injects fresh impetus into achieving synergistic governance of pollution and carbon reduction. Based on panel data for 278 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2022， this study quantitatively measures city-level new quality productive forces and the degree of pollution-carbon synergistic effects and analyzes their spatiotemporal evolution. Employing a suite of econometric methods， we systematically explore the impact and mechanisms of new quality productive forces on synergistic effects. The main findings are as follows： ① New quality productive forces significantly enhanced synergistic effects of pollution and carbon mitigation， and this conclusion remained robust after a series of sensitivity tests. ② New quality productive forces improved synergistic effects primarily through three mediation pathways： independent mediation by advanced manufacturing agglomeration （contributing 73.47% of the total indirect effect）， independent mediation by energy structure optimization （24.49%）， and a sequential chain pathway： advanced manufacturing agglomeration→energy structure optimization （2.04%）. ③ The impact of new quality productive forces was heterogeneous， being more pronounced in non-resource-based cities， environmentally prioritized cities， and cities with high factor allocation efficiency. ④ New quality productive forces exhibited pronounced spatial spillover effects， not only strengthening local synergistic effects but also enhancing those in neighboring regions. Overall， this research not only reveals the mechanism by which new quality productive forces promote synergistic pollution and carbon mitigation but also provides empirical insights for advancing new quality productive forces and enhancing coordinated low-carbon urban governance.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4493-4505"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Impact of New Quality Productivity on the Synergistic Advancement of Carbon Reduction and Pollution Control].","authors":"Yao Lu, Hui Sun, Xue-Chao Xia, Rui Nie","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202504215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202504215","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The development of new quality productivity is the inherent requirement and an important focal point for promoting high-quality development. Analyzing the series of effects brought by new quality productivity forces has become a focused topic of the current era in the industry and academia. Based on China's provincial balanced panel data from 2012 to 2022， and using the resource orchestration theory as the analytical framework， this paper delves into the impact of new quality productivity on carbon emissions and its inherent mechanisms. The empirical results indicate that： ① New quality productivity had a significant carbon emission reduction effect， which was more pronounced in the eastern region and areas with higher levels of economic development. ② New quality productivity promoted carbon emission reduction through industrial agglomeration and energy saving effects. ③ The level of financial development and environmental regulations could effectively strengthen the carbon emission reduction effect of new quality productivity forces. ④ New quality productivity possessed the environmental effects of pollution reduction and the energy decoupling effects of unlocking. The research results demonstrate that new quality productivity can serve as a long-term incentive mechanism to effectively achieve collaborative carbon reduction and pollution reduction， providing important insights for promoting low-carbon， green， and sustainable economic and social development in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4519-4531"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Synergistic Effect of High-quality Urban Development and Ecosystem Services in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River].","authors":"Chang Lu, Jian Shang, Zhi-Yu Wang, Yu-Fan Xu, Qin-Lin Guo, Wen-Na Jiang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506288","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study investigates the synergistic interplay between high-quality urban development and ecosystem services in the mid-lower Yellow River Basin， analyze its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors， and provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development. Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality development and the evaluation results of InVEST model， combined with the revised coupling coordination model and geographical detectors， this study systematically analyzes the coupling coordination relationship between high-quality development and ecosystem services in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2007 to 2022 and its driving factors. The results show that： ① From 2007 to 2022， the high-quality urban development in the study area and the comprehensive level of ecosystem services showed an overall upward trend. The comprehensive level of high-quality development presented a bimodal distribution with higher concentrations in the northern and southern regions， contrasting with lower values in the central-western zones， while the comprehensive level of ecosystem services presented a spatial feature of \"high in the west and low in the middle and east.\" ② During the study period， the coupling coordination degree between high-quality urban development and ecosystem services in the study area demonstrated a sustained increasing trend， but it was still mainly in the transitional stage and had not yet reached the coordination stage. The spatial distribution presented a pattern of \"high in the east and low in the middle，\" and the spatial agglomeration patterns were mainly high-high and low-low， with obvious regional and heterogeneity. ③ Average annual precipitation and soil erodibility were the main factors that affected the coupling and coordination of high-quality urban development and ecosystem services in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. The synergistic effects between high-quality development and ecosystem services in the study area exhibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. It is necessary to focus on the key driving factors such as average annual precipitation and soil erodibility， implement differentiation strategies to improve the level of coupling and coordination， and facilitate the synergistic advancement of regional sustainable development and ecological conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4942-4954"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Multi-scenario Simulation and Ecological Environmental Effects Analysis of \"Production-Living-Ecological Spaces\" in the Yangtze River Basin Based on the FLUS-Markov Model].","authors":"Jia-Hui Xiong, Ya-Jin Hu, Ling Li, En-Xiang Cai, Ya-Li Zhang, Si-Yuan Liu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505199","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on the five phases of land use data in the Yangtze River Basin in 2000， 2005， 2010， 2015， and 2020， the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the \"production-living-ecological spaces\" and the ecological environment quality in the Yangtze River Basin over the past 20 years were analyzed by means of the land use transfer matrix and ecological environment effect model. Taking 2020 as the benchmark， the FLUS-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the spatial distribution pattern of the \"production-living-ecological spaces\" in the Yangtze River Basin and the changes in the future ecological environment under the three scenarios of natural development， cultivated land protection， and ecological protection from 2030 to 2050. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the agricultural production space continued to shrink at an average annual rate of 0.26%， decreasing by 25 890 km2， of which 10.10%， 13.67%， 31.97%， and 26.78% were converted into green ecological space， water ecological space， urban living space， and industrial and mining production space， respectively. The ecological environment quality index decreased from 0.521 86 to 0.520 56 and then rose to 0.522 07， being at the medium to upper level. ② Under the ecological protection scenario， the cultivated land in 2050 still decreased， but the rate of decrease was reduced， and the outward expansion of living space and industrial and mining production space was effectively curbed； the ecological environment quality index of 0.523 07 was better than those of the natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios， which was conducive to giving full play to the environmental benefits of the Yangtze River Basin. ③ Under each simulation scenario， the main distribution positions of the \"production-living-ecological space\" and the distribution of ecological environment quality grades in the Yangtze River Basin from 2030 to 2050 basically remained unchanged. This study can provide theoretical and data support for the evaluation of land use changes and their ecological effects in the Yangtze River Basin and provide a scientific guide for the optimal layout and rational allocation of land space in the Yangtze River Basin and the promotion of ecological civilization construction in the Yangtze River Basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4745-4756"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Refined Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Type Evolution in Heilongjiang Province].","authors":"Nai-Wen Xiu, Yi-Fan Hu, Wen-Yi Fan","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506241","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heilongjiang Province， as an important state-owned forest area and commercial grain base in China， analyzing its land use change and exploring the spatial differentiation of land use is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of regional land use， carbon balance， and scientific territorial spatial planning. Based on the land use type data of Heilongjiang Province from 1985 to 2020， land use categories were systematically classified into 11 classes. Notably， the primary forest land category was further refined into shrubland， deciduous broad-leaved forest， evergreen coniferous forest， deciduous coniferous forest， and mixed coniferous-broad-leaved forest. This detailed classification framework facilitated a comprehensive analysis of land use area dynamics and land use transitions in Heilongjiang Province over the past 35 years. Land use changes in Heilongjiang Province from 2020 to 2070 under natural development and policy-driven scenarios were simulated using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation （PLUS） model. The dynamic forest fragmentation index （ΔFFI） was calculated to quantify the effectiveness of policy interventions， and the Geodetector method was employed to evaluate the explanatory power of various driving factors on the spatial differentiation of land use patterns. The results show that： ① During the period from 1985 to 2020， among the major land use types in Heilongjiang Province， the area of cropland increased while the areas of deciduous broad-leaved forest and deciduous coniferous forest decreased. ② Changes in the areas of various land-use types were mainly due to mutual transfers involving cropland. The conversion of deciduous broad-leaved forest to cropland resulted in an expansion of cropland area. Conversely， the conversion of cropland to impervious surfaces and shrubland was the primary driver of the expansion of both land use types. ③ Soil type and population exhibited the greatest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of land use types in Heilongjiang Province in 2020， and the explanatory power of multi-factor interactions was significantly stronger than that of individual factors. DEM， population， and GDP were the dominant factors driving the expansion of various land use types， while transportation networks played a decisive role in impervious surface expansion. ④ Significant differences in projected land use changes and forest fragmentation dynamics under the two scenarios suggest that policy factors play a critical role in shaping future land use patterns in Heilongjiang Province.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 7","pages":"4872-4887"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148521204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}