[Spatio-temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector Model].

Studying the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and driving factors of carbon reserves in the middle reaches of the Yellow River is crucial for achieving sustainable development and regional ecological conservation against the backdrop of the "double carbon" plan. Based on the five-year interval, the land use data of the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 were selected, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon reserves were estimated and analyzed by coupling with the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model, and the driving factors affecting the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon reserves were discussed. Finally, the carbon reserves of the middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2030 were predicted under four developmental scenarios： natural development, ecological protection, economic development, and cultivated land protection. The findings indicate that： ① The middle reaches of the Yellow River's carbon storage showed a consistent growth trend between 2000 and 2020, exhibiting an increase by 5.75×10⁷ t. The evolution of the spatial distribution was reasonably stable, exhibiting the characteristics of "southeast is higher than northwest." ② The middle reaches of the Yellow River's carbon storage differentiated both spatially and temporally between 2000 and 2020, with two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement observed in the interaction detection of each driving element. The main driving force was the NDVI. ③ From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of the four scenarios in the Yellow River's middle reaches showed an increasing trend in comparison to that in 2020. Of them, the carbon storage of the ecological preservation scenario rose the highest at 3.93×10⁷ t, while the carbon storage of the economic growth scenario increased the least at 4.8×10⁶ t. The findings of the study will offer some evidence in favor of the middle reaches of the Yellow River's long-term development and ecological environment management.