环境科学最新文献

{"title":"[Trade-off and Synergistic Relationship of Ecosystem Services in the Shaanxi Section of the Yellow River Basin and Its Driving Mechanisms].","authors":"Chun-Yan Tian, Run-Jia Zheng, Zhou-Yu Li, Liu-Yang Yao","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202501096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202501096","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study explores the evolutionary patterns of ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin over the past two decades， quantifies trade-offs and synergistic relationships among multi-scale ecosystem services （ES）， and analyzes their driving mechanisms to provide theoretical support for ecological conservation and resource management in the region. Using the InVEST model， we assessed carbon storage， food production， habitat quality， soil conservation， and water yield from 2000 to 2020， examining the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of multi-scale ecosystem services， identifying synergistic and trade-off mechanisms among ecosystem services， revealing their spatiotemporal clustering patterns， and employing logistic regression models to identify key drivers affecting ecosystem service relationships. The results indicate： ① Over the past 20 years， cropland and grassland combined accounted for 74.64% of the total area， with construction land increasing by 2 027 km2 and grassland expanding by 1 721 km2， reflecting the influence of urbanization and agricultural expansion on land use patterns. ② Different ecosystem services exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity： carbon storage and habitat quality showed high values in the Qinling Mountain forest regions； food production was concentrated in the Guanzhong Plain agricultural areas； water yield was mainly distributed in the southern Qinling Mountains and the Hanjiang River Basin； and soil conservation was mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains and the hilly areas of northern Shaanxi. ③ Synergistic and trade-off relationships among ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section varied significantly across different scales： At the grid scale， food production and habitat quality showed significant trade-offs with a correlation coefficient of -0.389； at the county scale， carbon storage and habitat quality demonstrated strong synergy with a correlation coefficient of 0.923， while correlations stabilized at the watershed scale. ④ Logistic regression analysis revealed that precipitation， normalized difference vegetation index， and population density served as primary drivers influencing ecosystem service relationships under different spatial clustering patterns. These research findings can provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for ecosystem functional zoning and ecosystem service enhancement in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5549-5563"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148865969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Impacts of Land Use Change on Carbon Emissions and Zoned Control Policies in Mountainous and Hilly Areas： A Case of Chongqing City].","authors":"Yao Mu, Rong-Rong Chen, Chao-Xian Yang, Gui-Xin Xin, Ji-Kai Pan, Zhao-Xin Tan","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506077","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As the world's second-largest carbon source after energy consumption， land use change profoundly affects terrestrial ecosystems and climate patterns. Understanding its carbon emission impacts is vital for achieving carbon reduction and neutrality goals. To this end， the mountainous megacity of Chongqing was selected as a case for investigation. Utilizing land use data from 2000-2020， an analysis employing the PLUS model was conducted to examine historical impacts and forecast future trends. Based on multi-scenario projections， spatially differentiated carbon reduction strategies are proposed. The results indicate： ① Between 2000 and 2020， Chongqing's landscape was dominated by cropland and forestland. Structural shifts involved decreases in cropland and grassland， while other land types expanded. Spatially， these changes were concentrated in the main urban core and the southeast， with less intensity in the northeast， a pattern projected to continue to 2030. ② Driven by the conversion of low-carbon to high-carbon land uses， net carbon emissions soared from 13.19 to 52.73 million tons from 2000 to 2020. Emission levels escalated across most districts， especially in the urban centers of Yubei， Jiulongpo， and Shapingba. Projections for 2030 indicate that land use change will increase emissions under the natural development and urban construction scenarios but decrease them under an ecological protection scenario. ③ A zoned management framework， dividing the region into four distinct zones-carbon reduction transition， emission reduction and sink enhancement， low-carbon development demonstration， and low-carbon advantage consolidation-offers a viable pathway toward a low-carbon transition in land use management.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5220-5233"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148866059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Optimization of Ecological Network in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on Ecosystem Service Trade-offs and Complex Network Theory].","authors":"Xiang-Yi Li, Zheng-Wu Wang, Wu-Yang Hong, Li Zhang, Yu Chen, Jin-Xin Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506010","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Constructing an ecological network that promotes the synergistic delivery of ecosystem services and ensures stability and effectiveness is a crucial spatial approach for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations， possessing significant theoretical and practical implications. Existing research has seldom considered the impact of trade-offs in urban agglomeration ecosystem services on the selection of ecological sources， and in-depth exploration is needed for methods optimizing ecological network topology based on complex network theory. This study takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area （GBA）， an ultra-large urban agglomeration， as a case study. It employs the ordered weighted averaging （OWA） model， considering ecosystem service trade-offs， to select ecological sources that best achieve synergistic delivery. The ecological network is constructed using the least-cost path and circuit theory and then optimized based on complex network theory， informed by topological and robustness analyses. The results indicate that： ① Incorporating ecosystem service trade-offs into the ecological source selection process effectively identified ecological patches that promote the synergistic delivery of key ecosystem services. Among multiple trade-off scenarios evaluated using the OWA model， the optimal scenario （Scenario 3） demonstrated the highest average protection efficiency for ecosystem services （1.942） and a relatively low decision-making risk （0.2）， significantly enhancing the overall benefits of ecological source selection. ② A total of 278 ecological sources were identified， predominantly distributed in the northern continuous mountainous forest ecological barrier zone. Together with 700 ecological corridors （totaling 6 680.627 km）， 132 ecological pinch points， and 283 ecological obstacle areas， they constituted an integrated ecological network. ③ Optimization strategies derived from complex network theory， involving the spatial supplementation of network nodes and edges， markedly improved the overall connectivity and stability of the ecological network. The 32 new ecological sources and 91 new ecological corridors were primarily concentrated in regions of the eastern and northern GBA with favorable ecological conditions and in areas where existing corridor connectivity was relatively weak. By integrating ecosystem service trade-offs with complex network theory， this study offers a novel perspective for establishing ecological networks that are both functionally synergistic and robustly stable in ultra-large urban agglomerations. It provides theoretical and practical references for addressing spatial conflicts between urban development and ecological conservation under intense human activity， particularly for mega-urban agglomerations exemplified by the GBA.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5564-5578"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148866934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Nonlinear Impacts and Threshold Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Northwest China].","authors":"Jiang-Tao Zhang, Yang Su, Muhabaiti Pareti, Si-Xue Qin, Qin Shu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505305","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As a crucial ecological barrier in China， the fragile ecosystems in Northwest China exhibit high sensitivity to land use changes. Therefore， investigating the relationship between land use/cover change （LUCC） and ecosystem service value （ESV） is of great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Using Northwest China as the study area， this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use based on land use data from 2008 to 2023 using spatial statistical methods. The ESV was assessed using a modified equivalent factor method and geodetector to reveal its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors. A boosted regression tree （BRT） model was employed to quantitatively identify the nonlinear impact mechanisms of proportional changes in different land use types on the ESV and determine their critical threshold effects. The results indicated the following： ① During the study period， the overall land use structure in Northwest China remained relatively stable. Construction land showed the most significant increase， expanding by 9 941.85 km2， and was primarily converted from cultivated land and grassland. ② ESV exhibited an initial decline followed by a rising trend over time. Spatially， it displayed a pattern of \"higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest，\" closely correlated with land use types， with different ESV grades showing clustered distribution. ③ The spatial heterogeneity of ESV was jointly driven by natural and socio-economic factors. Land use intensity contributed the most among the drivers. All factor interactions exhibited enhancing effects， with the interaction between land use intensity and other factors being particularly prominent in explanatory power. ④ Forest land， grassland， and unused land were identified as the key land use types influencing ESV in the mountain system. Unused land， water bodies， and cultivated land were the key factors affecting the ESV in the oasis and desert systems. ⑤ The proportion of key land use types exhibited a significant threshold effect on ecosystem service value （ESV）. To maintain ESV at a medium or higher level， the land use proportions in each system must meet the following conditions： For the mountain system， forest land should account for 21.56%-98.99%， grassland for 61.07%-98.99%， and unused land for 3.03%-11.39%； for the oasis system， water area should account for 3.75%-98.99%， unused land for 1.01%-28.01%， and cultivated land for 3.03%-14.22%； and for the desert system， water area should account for 0.97%-98.99%， unused land for 1.01%-74.39%， and cultivated land for 0.00%-4.03%.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5609-5623"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148866944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics and Multivariate Driving Mechanisms of Microplastics in the Jinghe River Basin， Arid and Semi-arid Region of Western China].","authors":"Ying Zhang, Xi Li, Le Zhang, Jing-Nan Tan, Jing-Wei Zhang, Xin-Wei Gao, Qi Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506265","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Microplastics （MPs）， as an emerging contaminant， pose a global environmental challenge. Current research on microplastics spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors predominantly focuses on humid and coastal regions， leaving systematic studies in arid and semi-arid areas relatively scarce. Furthermore， existing investigations into driving mechanisms inadequately resolve the key processes governing the dry/wet season regulation of the microplastics \"migration-settlement\" dynamic equilibrium. There is also a lack of quantitative validation regarding the differential mechanisms by which multiple drivers （e.g.， water physicochemical properties， socio-economic activities， and land use types） influence microplastics distribution across seasons. To address this data gap， this study selected the Jing River in western China's arid and semi-arid region as the study area. We systematically analyzed the abundance， occurrence characteristics， and polymer types of microplastics in its surface water and sediments. Integrating data on water physicochemical indicators （pH， dissolved oxygen， etc.）， socio-economic indicators （total GDP， value-added of primary/secondary industries， etc.）， and land use types （agricultural land， transportation land， etc.）， we employed Pearson correlation analysis， principal component analysis （PCA）， and partial least squares structural equation modeling （PLS-SEM） to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and multi-factor driving mechanisms of microplastics. The results indicated that microplastics abundance in the Jinghe River sediments ranged from 130 to 1550 items·kg^-1 and from 467 to 3 566 items·m^-3 in surface water， placing it at a low-to-moderate level globally. Microplastics were mainly characterized by small particle sizes （50-500 μm）， fibers， fragments， and black color. Microplastics distribution showed different correlations with water physicochemical indicators （pH， dissolved oxygen）， socio-economic indicators （total GDP， value-added of primary/secondary industries）， and land use types （agricultural land， transportation land）. Overall， water physicochemical indicators exerted a negative regulatory effect on microplastics distribution during the wet season， shifting to a positive influence during the dry season. In contrast， socio-economic indicators and land use types consistently exhibited a significantly positive driving effect on microplastics accumulation. These findings elucidate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of riverine microplastics pollution in arid and semi-arid regions and inform targeted pollution control strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5708-5722"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148867065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Coupling Network of the Agricultural \"Land-Energy-Grain-Carbon\" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt].","authors":"Shan Lu, Kun Zhou, Shui-Li Luo, Zi-Jian Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507198","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on the multidimensional evaluation indicator system of the agricultural \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt， this study calculates the coupling coordination levels of \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" in each province from 2011 to 2022 using the revised coupling coordination model. It discusses the structural characteristics of the spatial association network using social network analysis and explores the driving factors of the coupling network evolution using the dynamic exponential random graph model （TERGM）. ① From 2011 to 2022， the coupling coordination level of the agricultural \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been steadily improved， exhibiting a distinct spatial pattern with higher values at both ends and lower values in the middle region， while regional disparities gradually narrowed. ② There was a regional imbalance and spatial geographical proximity in the coupling correlation intensity of the agricultural \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The correlation relationship of the coupling network showed a development trend of rising first and then falling and formed a \"center-edge\" network structure with the downstream region as the center and the midstream and upstream regions as the edges. ③ The evolution of the \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" coupling network in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was driven by reciprocity， transitivity， and multi-connectivity. The delayed reciprocity and variability， which included time-dependent relationships， were also significant. Additionally， the fiscal support level for agriculture， agricultural technological innovation， green technological innovation， agricultural environmental regulation， and geographical distance all had important impacts on the formation and evolution of the coupling network. The coupling coordination development of \"land-energy-grain-carbon\" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed significant regional differences but was generally improving. The coupling network evolution was driven by both endogenous and exogenous effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5426-5441"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148867085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation NEP in Northeast China Based on MODIS-NPP].","authors":"Hong-Peng Wang, Zi-Hao Wang, Bing Wang, Xiang-Yuan Meng","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506081","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As a crucial ecological security barrier and carbon sink functional zone in China， the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation net ecosystem productivity （NEP） in Northeast China holds significant implications for achieving the \"dual-carbon\" goals. In this study， NEP was calculated using MODIS-NPP data and meteorological data from 2001 to 2023. Combined with the Theil-Sen slope， Mann-Kendall test， and Hurst index， the spatiotemporal dynamics and future trends of NEP were revealed. Additionally， its driving mechanisms were analyzed using a ridge regression model and optimal parameter Geodetector. The results showed that： ① During the study period， the average NEP reached 234.19 g·m^-2， with a significant increase at a rate of 3.43 g·（m2·a）^-1 （<i>P</i>&lt;0.05）， peaking at 286.60 g·m^-2 in 2022. ② Spatially， NEP presented a pattern of \"high in the surrounding areas and low in the central region，\" with forested areas such as the Greater Khingan Range and Changbai Mountains being high-value regions. ③ In the future， NEP will continue to increase in 79.31% of the study area （<i>H</i>=0.52）. ④ Population density had the largest relative contribution rate to the temporal variation of NEP （27.68%）， followed by precipitation （24.65%）. The positive and negative contributions of all factors were concentrated in the range of -0.01 to 0.015 g·（m2·a）^-1. Land use， population density， and precipitation mainly showed positive effects， while the absolute contributions of average temperature and maximum temperature were negative. ⑤ Multi-factor coupling analysis indicated that land use type had the highest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of vegetation NEP， while the two-factor interaction between precipitation and maximum temperature had the highest explanatory power for the spatial heterogeneity of NEP， highlighting the synergistic influence of natural conditions and human activities. This study provides a scientific basis for regional carbon sink management and ecological restoration and is of great significance for local resource development and utilization as well as carbon trading.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5041-5052"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148867147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Identification of Ecological Zoning in Gansu Province by Coupling Ecosystem Service Value and Landscape Ecological Risk].","authors":"Kai-Zhou Zhang, Wei Wei, Jin-Lei Li, Xu-Dong Fan, Xiu-Wei Zhu, Xue-Ting Wu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507183","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Coupling ecosystem service value （ESV） with landscape ecological risk （LER） for ecological zoning in Gansu Province is of significant importance for accurately identifying ecological and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization， enhancing regional ecological security， and achieving sustainable development goals. The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Gansu Province in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development， ecological protection， economic development， and construction planning. We adopted the modified value equivalent method to evaluate ESV， combined landscape disturbance and vulnerability models to calculate LER， and identified ecological zones in Gansu Province through empirical Bayesian modified spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results indicate that： ① Ecological protection and construction planning scenarios increased ESV by 1.28% and 1.54%， respectively. Notably， the increase in water resource supply function under the construction planning scenario was the highest， reaching 3.19%. ② LER presented a spatial differentiation feature of \"low in the northwest and high in the southeast，\" with high-risk areas concentrated on the Loess Plateau in eastern Gansu and the edge of oases in Hexi. The degree of landscape fragmentation was significantly positively correlated with human activity intensity. ③ The spatial clustering of ESV and LER in Gansu Province was mainly based on low value low risk in the northwest and high value high risk in the southeast. Research has found that integrating ecological protection planning and development strategies can effectively coordinate the contradiction between ecological service supply and risk carrying in Gansu Province， providing effective support for its ecological spatial planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5624-5635"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148867174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on Land Use Efficiency in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration].","authors":"Shan-Shan Guo, Xue-Ting Xiong, Jun-Chang Huang, Ling Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507239","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As a core driver of high-quality economic development， the synergistic relationship between new quality productive forces（NQPF）and land use efficiency（LUE）constitutes a critical issue in regional sustainable development. Utilizing panel data from 29 prefecture-level cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration （2010-2023）， this study integrates the entropy weight TOPSIS method， super-efficiency SBM model， Malmquist index， and fixed-effects model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of NQPF and their impact mechanisms on LUE. The results show that： ① The composite index of NQPF in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration increased from 0.280 to 0.828， exhibiting a \"stepwise growth\" pattern， with a spatial structure characterized by a \"core-secondary-periphery\" gradient. Zhengzhou emerged as the core growth pole driving innovation， while peripheral cities such as Handan and Hebi， constrained by resource-dependent economic structures， exhibited NQPF indices below 0.2. ② The mean LUE in the study area improved from 0.917 to 1.031， with cities in Henan Province outperforming those in Hebei， Shanxi， and Anhui provinces. Total factor productivity （TFP） grew at an annual rate of 16.4%， primarily driven by technological progress. ③ NQPF exerted a significantly positive effect on LUE， albeit with notable heterogeneity： Large-scale cities enhanced land-intensive utilization through technological agglomeration and industrial upgrading； cities with limited arable land resources and higher economic development levels effectively leveraged NQPF to improve LUE. In contrast， small-scale cities， arable-rich regions， and economically underdeveloped areas， hindered by technological absorption capacity， path dependence， and resource bottlenecks， failed to establish effective synergistic mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5442-5454"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148865690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Land Use Change and Biodiversity Change in Shaanxi Province Under Multi-scenario Simulation].","authors":"Qian Zhang, Ling Han, Liang-Zhi Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506125","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Excessive exploitation of land resources has driven global land-use changes that diminish ecological spaces， posing significant challenges to biodiversity conservation. To synergize ecological protection with high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin while balancing biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic needs in Shaanxi Province， this study designed three scenarios-Baseline （natural evolution）， Beautiful Shaanxi （ecological priority）， and Harmonious Shaanxi （coordinated development）-based on intrinsic linkages among land-use types， disturbance intensity， and biodiversity. Using the GeoSoS-FLUS and FLUS-Biodiversity models， we simulated land-use patterns and spatial heterogeneity of Mean Species Abundance （MSA） for 2035 and 2050. XGBoost-SHAP modeling further deciphered MSA drivers. Key findings reveal that： ① Structural shifts in most land-use types occurred， with moderately disturbed forests expanding significantly across all scenarios while dryland areas decreased most markedly. ② Under natural trends， Shaanxi's MSA rose from 0.533 （2020） to 0.539 （2050）， whereas the Beautiful and Harmonious scenarios elevated MSA to 0.546 and 0.544 by 2050， confirming their positive biodiversity effects. ③ MSA exhibited pronounced regional disparities-lower in densely populated economic zones and higher in natural resource-rich areas. ④ Driver contributions to MSA exhibited significant heterogeneity： Population density was the dominant negative factor， while annual potential evapotranspiration and temperature acted as primary positive drivers. This study demonstrates that scientifically coordinating land-use changes with biodiversity conservation， implementing targeted protection policies， and enhancing governance efficacy constitute effective pathways to achieve biodiversity targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 8","pages":"5468-5481"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148866824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}