环境科学最新文献

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in China's Four Major Urban Agglomerations].","authors":"Hai-Peng Wu, Qiao-Xing Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506331","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Guided by the national strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality， it is of great significance to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in China's major urban agglomerations. Based on the integrated nighttime light index and energy statistical data， this study estimates the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH）， Yangtze River Delta （YRD）， Pearl River Delta （PRD）， and Chengdu-Chongqing （CC） urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2022. By analyzing carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions， the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and regional disparities are explored. Furthermore， the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） decomposition method is employed to explore the dynamic changes of the influencing factors. The results reveal that total carbon emissions in the four urban agglomerations experienced rapid growth in the early stage， followed by a noticeable slowdown. Spatially， carbon emissions expanded from densely concentrated core cities to surrounding regions， with intra-regional emissions gradually becoming more balanced. Emission intensity generally showed a downward trend， with steady declines in the YRD and PRD regions and a more significant decrease in the BTH Region， although it continued to maintain a relatively high level. Per capita carbon emissions demonstrated diversified trajectories along with economic development： The YRD and BTH regions underwent inter-quartile transitions， while the PRD Region maintained a low and stable level， and the CC region exhibited greater internal variability. Economic growth remained the primary driver of carbon emission increases， whereas the effect of population scale had weakened. Improvements in industrial energy efficiency and the optimization of industrial structure played a major role in curbing emissions， and the contribution of energy structure adjustment had become increasingly prominent. In summary， the evolution of carbon emissions in China's four major urban agglomerations was characterized by decelerated growth， spatial diffusion， and persistent regional heterogeneity. To promote a low-carbon transition， region-specific and coordinated strategies should be strengthened moving forward.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"5889-5906"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Net Primary Productivity in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Region of China from 2001 to 2020].","authors":"Jin Yang, Ke-Qin Wang, Yi-Ran Li, Zhen Wang, Ling Li, Xiao-Wen Feng","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507146","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As an important ecologically fragile region and ecological barrier in China， the Southwest Alpine Canyon Region of China plays a critical role in maintaining ecological security and enhancing carbon sink benefits in southwestern China. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of its carbon sequestration capacity and the contribution of driving factors is of great significance. Existing regional studies have mostly focused on vegetation cover and soil erosion， while analysis of changes in carbon sequestration capacity and its driving factors remains insufficient. Therefore， this study took vegetation net primary productivity （NPP） as an entry point and utilized the MOD17A3HGF （Version 6.1） dataset， along with Theil-Sen trend analysis， Mann-Kendall significance test， multiple partial correlation analysis， and residual analysis， to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of NPP and its driving factors in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Region of China from 2001 to 2020. The results indicated that： ① During the study period， the NPP （in terms of C） in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Region of China showed a non-significant decreasing trend [changing rate=-0.1 g·（m²·a）^-1， <i>P</i>=0.92]. Spatially， it exhibited a distribution pattern of \"faster in the south than in the north， and faster in the east than in the west.\" Significant increasing trends were concentrated in the Water Conservation and Soil Retention Zone of the Northern Yunnan-Western Sichuan Alpine Gorge （zone Ⅲ）， while significant decreasing trends were mainly distributed in the Ecological Conservation Zone of the Southeastern Tibet Alpine Gorge Region （zone Ⅰ）. ② The response of NPP changes to meteorological variations showed significant differences， with temperature being the key driving factor， followed by solar radiation > precipitation > wind speed. ③ Changes in NPP were influenced by both climate change （accounting for approximately 50.1% of the area） and human activities （accounting for about 44.0% of the area）. Specifically， the increase in regional NPP was primarily driven by climatic factors （accounting for about 32.7% of the area）， while the decrease in NPP was mainly caused by human activities （accounting for approximately 19.3% of the area）. The findings reveal the spatiotemporal patterns and main driving factors of NPP in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Region of China， providing references for assessing the carbon sink development potential and implementing differentiated regional ecological management strategies in the area.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6151-6161"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Priority Control Screening of Organic Micropollutants in the Water Body of the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from Wuhu to Nanjing].","authors":"Mo-Shan Cen, Yan Zeng, Yu-Chun Wang, Jing Zhang, Ying An, Tian Lin, Jing-Fu Wang, Jing-An Chen","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507139","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The types and emissions of chemicals are constantly increasing， posing a huge threat to aquatic ecosystems. Given the complexity and large quantity of pollutants， it is difficult to achieve comprehensive monitoring and control. Therefore， screening out the priority pollutants that pose a significant threat to aquatic ecosystems is the key to formulating pollution control measures. The section of the Yangtze River's main stream from Wuhu to Nanjing is a core component of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The water pollution problems caused by economic growth may lead to an increase in organic micropollutants （OMPs） in the water bodies， thereby threatening the ecological security. This study detected 197 OMPs in the mainstream of the Yangtze River from Wuhu to Nanjing， with 150 contaminants identified. Priority screening was conducted based on hazard effects， occurrence levels， and risk prioritization. The hazard potential （HP） was determined based on the environmental persistence， bioaccumulation， and ecotoxicity of pollutants. The exposure potential （EP） was determined by the median concentration and detection rate of pollutants， and the priority index （PI） was calculated. The results showed that polybrominated diphenyl ethers （PBDEs） and polychlorinated biphenyls （PCBs） had high HP values， while sweeteners （SAs） had low HP values. SAs exhibited the highest EP values， whereas PBDEs had the lowest EP values. Risk assessment indicated that 34 pollutants posed a threat to the ecosystem. Based on the PI index， a list of 11 high-priority pollutants was generated. Among the high-priority pollutants， PFASs accounted for as high as 54.5%. PFASs mainly originated from industrial emissions. For future ecological environment monitoring and regulation in the Wuhu-Nanjing section of the Yangtze River mainstream， special attention should be paid to PFOA， PFNA， PFOS， 10∶2 FTCA， HFPO-TA， 8∶2 FTCA， BDE194， BDE209， BDE206， DEHP， and DBDPE. Pollutants with medium priority also require attention. It is suggested that stricter supervision and treatment measures should be implemented for the wastewater from fluorine chemical， electroplating， and textile enterprises along the river， in order to control the emission of PFASs.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6104-6115"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Review of Multifactorial Interaction Mechanisms of Environmental Behavior of Antibiotics in Soil].","authors":"Pei-Wen Zhang, Si-Min Li, Yuan-Qing Bu, Rong Zhou, Hou-Hu Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507148","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The extensive use of antibiotics in agriculture， animal husbandry， and healthcare has resulted in their persistent accumulation in soils， threatening ecosystems and public health through food chain transmission and the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes. The environmental risks associated with antibiotics are largely determined by their transport behaviors， which are jointly regulated by physicochemical conditions and microbial processes. However， most existing studies focus on individual factors， and systematic understanding of their interactions remains limited， constraining accurate prediction of antibiotic fate and effective risk management. This review synthesizes current knowledge on the major factors governing antibiotic transport in soils and their interdependencies， highlighting several key mechanisms. Initial retention is primarily controlled by adsorption to soil minerals and organic matter. Environmental variables such as pH， ionic strength， and redox potential influence transport pathways by modulating adsorption-desorption equilibria. Colloidal particles act as both sorbents and mobile carriers， while microbial degradation reduces parent compound persistence but may simultaneously enhance mobility through the production of polar metabolites. A landfill soil-leachate system is further presented as a representative scenario to illustrate the coupled \"physicochemical initiation-colloid mediation-microbial feedback\" cascade， thereby providing a conceptual basis for understanding multi-factor interactions in complex environments. In addition， most current findings are derived from simplified laboratory experiments， which limits their applicability to real-world conditions. Future research should emphasize multi-scale， in situ investigations and incorporate multi-media modeling frameworks to unravel interactive mechanisms， refine risk assessment， and guide mitigation strategies for antibiotic contamination.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6579-6588"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149013005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Tolerance Screening and Critical Response Mechanisms of Wetland Plants to Sulfonamide Antibiotics].","authors":"Yan-Qin Peng, Yi-Ping Tai, Jia-Xi Wang, Yu-Fen Yang, Wei-Feng Ruan, Yang Yang, Yu-Long Bai, Xiao-Meng Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Antibiotic contamination in aquacultural wastewater challenges constructed wetland efficacy， necessitating the identification of highly tolerant wetland plant species. Ten dominant wetland plant species in South China were exposed to sulfonamide antibiotics （SAs） at concentrations of 50-5 000 μg·L^-1. Growth-morphological adaptations （root number， length， biomass， etc.） and physiological-biochemical responses [chlorophyll content， radial oxygen loss （ROL）， root-secreted TOC/DIC， etc.] were quantified. Tolerance was comprehensively evaluated using principal component analysis （PCA） coupled with a membership function method. The results indicated that high concentrations of SAs （5 000 μg·L^-1） significantly inhibited root development （<i>P</i><0.05）， with root dry weight （inhibition rate of 75.7%， same below）， root number （76.1%）， maximum root length （60.9%）， and root porosity （52.2%） identified as sensitive indicators. Synergistic suppression of photosynthesis and ROL occurred： Chlorophyll content decreased by 6.3%-61.9% and ROL by 3.7%-86.4%， while root carbon release increased markedly （TOC by 12.19-fold， DIC by 2.03-fold） （<i>P</i><0.05）. PCA combined with the membership function method identified root number， root dry weight， chlorophyll content， and TOC secretion as key tolerance indicators. <i>Cyperus papyrus</i> （<i>D</i>=0.781） and <i>Alisma plantago-aquatica</i> （<i>D</i>=0.650） demonstrated optimal comprehensive tolerance. Cyperus papyrus emerged as a critical stress-tolerant species for SA-polluted wetland remediation， maintaining photosynthetic homeostasis （chlorophyll increase up to 21.4% at high concentrations）， high ROL capacity （RI>0.97）， and carbon metabolic plasticity （12.19-fold TOC elevation）.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6589-6598"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149013027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Biochar Remediation of Plastic-cadmium Co-contaminated Soil and Its Effect on <i>Amaranthus mangostanus</i> L. Growth].","authors":"Yan-Xiao Cao, Jiang-Xiu Yang, Nuo Chen, Xin-Yu Xu, Jun-Feng Wu, Hong-Hu Li, Jing-Tao Hou, Jing-Dong Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202504290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202504290","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A pot experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of biochar on soil properties， cadmium （Cd） bioavailability， and amaranth （<i>Amaranthus mangostanus</i> L.） growth in soils co-contaminated with polypropylene （PP） plastics and Cd， across varying PP dosages （0.1% and 1%） and particle sizes. The results indicated that in low-dose （0.1%） plastic-Cd co-contaminated soil， biochar significantly increased soil cation exchange capacity， ammonium nitrogen， and available phosphorus by 4.14%-22.75%， 92.82%-130.57%， and 2.86%-18.91%， respectively. In contrast， in high-dose （1%） plastic-Cd co-contaminated soil， greater increases in soil pH and dissolved organic carbon content were observed. Biochar reduced the available Cd content， amaranth Cd content， and the Cd enrichment factor of amaranth in low-dose plastic-Cd co-contaminated soil by 10.29%-23.35%， 4.40%-39.06%， and 10.92%-34.45%， respectively， primarily through physical adsorption and chemical passivation. However， in the high-dose plastic-Cd co-contaminated soil， biochar unexpectedly promoted Cd uptake by amaranth， with greater Cd accumulation observed under smaller plastic particle sizes. Furthermore， biochar significantly increased amaranth biomass and antioxidant enzyme activity， exhibiting more pronounced effects under conditions of low-dose and large-size plastic contamination. Redundancy analysis and partial least squares path modeling revealed that biochar alleviated co-contamination stress by adsorbing and immobilizing Cd， improving soil physicochemical properties and nutrient availability， suppressing the plastic-heavy metal synergistic effect， and activating the plant antioxidant defence system. In conclusion， rice husk biochar significantly improved soil physicochemical properties， reduced Cd bioavailability， and promoted plant growth in low-dose plastic-Cd co-contaminated soil. For high-dose plastic-Cd contamination， a combined strategy of biochar with phytoremediation is required to enhance Cd immobilization.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6467-6478"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149013040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Habitat Quality of Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin Based on the FLUS-InVEST Model].","authors":"Hong-Kui Yang, Ye Li, Yu-Xin Ma, Wan-Qiang Qi, Ming-Xin Yang, Li-Peng Ou","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202508108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202508108","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Studying the spatio-temporal pattern of the evolution of the quality of the Production Living Ecological Spaces in the Heihe River Basin is of practical significance for understanding the current ecological situation and promoting sustainable development in the region. This study classifies the Production Living Ecological Spaces based on the land use data of the Heihe River Basin from 1990 to 2023. Using the FLUS-InVEST model and GIS platform and coupling 11 driving factors， it simulates and predicts the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the Production Living Ecological Spaces and their habitat quality under the three scenarios of production space priority， living space priority， and ecological space priority in 2035. The results show that： ① From 1990 to 2023， the area of agricultural production space in the Heihe River Basin increased by 1 184.23 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;， mainly due to the conversion of unused land and grassland； the area of water ecological land increased by 20.96%； and the areas of forest and grassland ecological land decreased by 167.04 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and 606.31 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;， respectively. ② From 1990 to 2023， the annual change rate of habitat quality in the Heihe River Basin was -0.013%·a&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. High-quality and very high-quality areas mainly transferred to medium-quality and low-quality areas， with a reduction of 786.15 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in area. Their centers of gravity moved 17.61 km to the northwest and 21.66 km to the northeast， respectively； the area of low-quality areas increased by 7 178.28 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;， and the center of gravity of low-quality areas moved 52.77 km towards the oasis area in the middle and upper reaches. ③ Compared with those in 2020， in the production space priority scenario in 2035， the areas of forest and grassland decreased by 271.23 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and 800.71 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;， respectively， under the living space priority development scenario， and the area of urban living space increased significantly， while the areas of forest and grassland ecological land continued to decrease. Under the ecological space priority development scenario， the area of forest land increased by 17.76 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. The decrease in grassland area was the smallest in this scenario. ④ In 2035， the average HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority development scenarios were 0.376 9， 0.377 1， and 0.381 5， respectively. Among them， the HQ values of the Production Living Ecological Spaces priority scenarios decreased by 1.13% and 1.08% compared with those in 2020， mainly due to the reduction in the area of high-quality and very high-quality areas. However， under the ecological space priority scenario， the area of high-quality areas increased by 234.70 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;， and the HQ value increased by 0.08%， 1.22%， and 1.17% compared with that in 2020 and the other two scenarios， respectively. The research results can provide multi-perspective references for ecological governance and the coordinated","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6264-6278"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Meta-analysis of Straw Return Effects on Salt Regulation and Crop Yield Improvement in Saline Soils of China].","authors":"Hao-Hao Bo, Min Tang, Chao Zhang, Shao-Yuan Feng, Yu-Jie Hu, Zheng Zhang, Zhi-Peng Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202507410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202507410","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Soil salinization severely limits the productivity of arable land， highlighting an urgent need for cost-effective amelioration technologies. Straw return to fields presents a dual opportunity for resource recycling and salinity regulation. However， its comprehensive effects on saline soil improvement and crop yield enhancement have yet to be quantitatively assessed. In this study， we conducted a Meta-analysis synthesizing data from 40 published studies across China's mainland， encompassing 325 records of soil electrical conductivity and 256 records of crop yield. We systematically evaluated the interactive effects of climatic factors （annual mean temperature， precipitation， and evaporation）， soil characteristics （initial salinization level and pH）， and agronomic practices （straw type， application rate， return method， straw length， and incorporation depth） on the efficacy of straw return in saline soils. Our results demonstrate that straw return significantly reduced soil electrical conductivity by 22.14% （<i>P</i><0.05） and increased crop yield by 29.11% （<i>P</i><0.05）. In warm and humid climatic zones （annual mean temperature>14℃， precipitation>400 mm， evaporation<1 500 mm） and in strongly saline-alkaline soils with weak alkalinity （pH 8-9）， soil salinity reductions reached 30.63%-54.02%. The optimal strategy for salt control involved the application of biochar-modified wheat straw at rates exceeding 20 t·hm^-2， with straw lengths of 10-15 cm and deep incorporation （20-40 cm）. In contrast， the greatest yield improvements were achieved using straw lengths of 10-15 cm with shallow incorporation （0-20 cm）； significant yield increases were observed for wheat and sunflower， while cotton did not respond significantly. In summary， straw return is an effective strategy for both ameliorating saline soils and enhancing crop productivity， although its efficacy is mediated by synergistic interactions among climatic， soil， and management factors. Site-specific optimization of straw return practices-taking into account regional climate， soil properties， and crop type-represents a crucial approach for promoting sustainable agricultural development in saline-affected regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6443-6455"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Interpretability-driven Analysis of Carbon Storage in the Yellow River Delta Based on SHAP-XGBoost Model].","authors":"Zhi-Long Ma, Mei Han, Xiang-Lun Kong, Jin-Xin Sun, Bin Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202505105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202505105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Ecosystem carbon storage is an indicator of climate change. Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of carbon storage can provide natural solutions to climate change. Based on the five-period land use data of the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020， the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Yellow River Delta. The CA-Markov model was coupled to predict the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological protection in 2030 and 2060. Finally， the SHAP-XGBoost model was used to explain the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage. The results showed that： ① From 1980 to 2020， the land use types changed significantly. The construction land increased by 503.40 km²， while the cultivated land and water area lost 123.47 km² and 313.18 km²， respectively. The proportion of ecological land and unused land such as forest land and grassland was small and showed a downward trend. ② From 1980 to 2020， the carbon stocks were 52.88×10⁶， 76.77×10⁶， 36.92×10⁶， 32.71×10⁶， and 49.94×10⁶ t， respectively. Under the natural development scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 41.92×10⁶ t and 41.21×10⁶ t， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， the carbon stocks in 2030 and 2060 were 51.24×10⁶ t and 60.33×10⁶ t， respectively， indicating that ecological protection could significantly increase the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. ③ The main driving forces of the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 were the distance from high speed， distance from railway， and NDVI. The relationship between annual average temperature and carbon storage was more complex， and the overall effect was positive. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the restoration and management of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yellow River Delta.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"5848-5862"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149012948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Coupled SD-PLUS Model for Land Use Change and Multi-scenario Dynamic Simulation in Shandong Province].","authors":"Tie-Qiao Xiao, Ruo-Nan Wang, Ling Cui, Shen-Qi Gan, Mu-Yi Huang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202506143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202506143","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Multi-scenario simulation of land use can provide theoretical support for regional land space optimization and resource allocation. Based on the land use data of Shandong Province in 2000， 2010， and 2020， combined with 13 driving factors， four constraint scenarios of inertial development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and economic development were established. The land use change trend and driving mechanism of Shandong Province in 2030 were predicted and analyzed by the coupling system dynamics （SD） model and patch-level land use change simulation （PLUS） model. The results showed that： ① Under the inertial development scenario， the construction land increased significantly by 5 232.36 km²， the cultivated land area decreased by 5 363.11 km²， and the conversion of agricultural land to construction land showed an accelerating trend. Under the scenario of cultivated land protection， the proportion of cultivated land increased significantly， reaching 69.19%， which was the highest in the four scenarios. ② The ecological protection scenario emphasized the protection and restoration of natural ecosystems such as forest land， grassland， and waters and promoted the increase of forest land， grassland， and waters by 938.02， 1 027.43， and 983.81 km²， respectively， but the area of cultivated land was reduced by 4 226.47 km². The economic development scenario led to the expansion of construction land to 26.33% （a net increase of 6 835.61 km²） and the reduction of cultivated land by 6 488.91 km². ③ The driving mechanism analysis revealed that the combined contribution rate of GDP and population density to the expansion of construction land was 42.3%， and the leading role of DEM and slope on the distribution of ecological land was more than 35%. The verification of the model showed that the historical simulation error of the SD module was less than 8% （the cultivated land error was only 0.27%）， the Kappa coefficient of the PLUS module was 0.8， and the simulation accuracy was significantly better than that of the single model. By setting and comparing the four scenarios， the research results can provide scientific basis and decision support for future land use planning and management.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"47 9","pages":"6188-6198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149013045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}