[Assessing the Ecosystem Service Value in a Developed County Based on Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use： A Case Study in Jiangyin].

Land is the key substrate for carrying ecosystems， and assessing ecosystem service value through multi-scenario simulation of land use has provided an important reference for coordinating ecological protection and economic development. Taking Jiangyin City as the study area， we utilize the intensity map of land use change， PLUS model， and ecosystem service value measurement model to analyze the characteristics of land use change in the developed county in China， portray the future land use pattern， and further explore the changes in ecosystem service value under multi-scenario simulation. The study produced several important results： ① The land use structure of Jiangyin City has shifted from a single structure dominated by cropland to a dual structure dominated by cropland and built-up land. The changes in the tendency types of water body to cropland and built-up land to water body reflect the regional law of land use change in the developed county along the Yangtze River in eastern China. ② The ecosystem service values under the scenarios of natural development， cropland conservation， ecological conservation， and eco-economics are 1.463， 1.638， 1.477， and 1.488 billion yuan， respectively. The ecological steering of county land use acts on the value differences of various scenarios. ③ The spatial heterogeneity of different ecosystem service values is remarkable， with the value of soil conservation， windbreak， and sand fixation showing a distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south and the value of carbon fixation and oxygen provision showing a spatial characteristic of high in the middle and low in the north and south. Therefore， it is necessary to adopt classified and zonal policies to promote the enhancement of ecosystem service values. The research is a beneficial supplement to the existing progress on the impact of land use change on ecosystem service value and provides an empirical basis for sustainable development decision-making in rapidly urbanizing regions.