环境科学最新文献

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Dynamics of NDVI in the Tarim River Mainstream and Its Influencing Factors].","authors":"Xiao-Qian Ma, Rui-Sen Zhong, Bin Wu, Kun Liu, Wen-Jing Zhong","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202409115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202409115","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Identifying the temporal and spatial variations of vegetation cover and their driving factors in the mainstream of the Tarim River is crucial for protecting the ecosystem stability in the basin. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI）， climate， topography， and anthropogenic factors of the mainstream of the Tarim River from 2000 to 2020， the spatiotemporal dynamic variation characteristics of NDVI in the mainstream of the river during 2000 and 2020 were analyzed by Theil-Sen Median slope estimation， Mann-Kendall trend significance test， Hurst index， and geographic detector， and the influencing factors of NDVI were evaluated. The results of the study follow： ① During 2000 to 2020， the NDVI in the mainstream of the Tarim River showed a fluctuating upward trend， with an increase rate of 0.001 2 per year， mainly dominated by low vegetation cover， accounting for 59.4% of the area. The spatial distribution of NDVI was obvious， with 44.9% of the area showing an increasing trend. ② The Hurst index analysis indicated that 64% of the NDVI area showed an improvement trend， while 36% of the area showed a degradation trend. ③ The influence detection showed that elevation was the main driving factor， with a <i>q</i> value of 0.421 9， and that the interaction between air temperature and elevation was the most significant effect， with a <i>q</i> value of 0.532. The ecological detection showed that there was a continuous significant difference between precipitation and air temperature on the change of NDVI， while there was no significant difference between slope aspect and night light. ④ The spatial differentiation of NDVI in the upper reaches of the river is primarily caused by the combined effects of climatic factors and topographic factors， but in the middle reaches， there is a gradual transition to human factors. Human factors are the dominant factors in the downstream region. Therefore， the NDVI in the mainstream of the Tarim River has shown an improvement trend through the past 20 years， and the NDVI situation in the region will depend more substantially on the balance of hydrothermal conditions in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5813-5824"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Translocation Characteristics of Heavy Metals in Soil-Rice Systems Under Conventional Field Planting Environment].","authors":"Cheng Fu, Jia-Bin Wang, Li Meng, Mo-Huan Ning, Rui Wang, Hai Deng, Li-Ming Su, Jin-Xiu Dong","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202407281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202407281","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The migration of heavy metal elements in the soil-rice system is a complex process， and it is important to clarify the processes of heavy metal uptake and enrichment in rice under conventional field cultivation environments to ensure food safety. In this study， we analyzed the migration characteristics and influencing factors of heavy metals in the soil-rice system by systematically collecting rice plants and soil samples in representative areas in Hechuan District， Chongqing City， China. The results showed that the paddy field soil in the study area was acidic on the whole. The spatial distribution of heavy metal elements was relatively uniform， and the enrichment degree of Cd was higher than those of other elements. Some samples exceeded the screening value of the risk of soil pollution in agricultural land， and the rate of exceedance of the standard at location was 26.67%. Among the different parts of the rice plant， the content and enrichment characteristics of Cd and Cu were in the order root &gt; stem &gt; leaf &gt; grain， the content and enrichment characteristics of Zn were in the order stem &gt; root &gt; leaf &gt; grain， and those of other heavy metals were in the order of root &gt; leaf &gt; stem &gt; grain. The enrichment capacity of rice roots， stems， leaves， and grains was significantly stronger for Cd in soil than for other elements. The Cd content in grains was mainly controlled by the transport of Cd from soil to root and from root to stem. The analysis of factors affecting heavy metal content and migration in rice grains showed that the heavy metal contents in grain were not significantly affected by the total contents of heavy metals in soil. The factors of MgO， CaO， K₂O， Fe₂O₃， S， Mn， pH and C_org could affect the uptake of heavy metals by rice grains by influencing the environment of the rice roots and the bioavailability of heavy metals. pH showed a more prominent effect. To ensure food security production in the study area， heavy metal migration to rice should be reduced through soil pH adjustment， organic fertilizer application， and water control.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"6066-6074"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Vegetation NPP in the Hutuo River Basin Under the Influence of Hydro-thermal Factors and Underlying Surface Factors].","authors":"Zi-Yan Yang, Jin-Guo Yuan, Zhuo-Lin Li, Wen-Chao Wang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202407059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202407059","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Hutuo River is one of the important rivers in Hebei Province and Shanxi Province， and it plays an important role in the economic green development and ecological environment construction along the river. Based on MOD17A3 NPP data， the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation NPP in the Hutuo River Basin was explored using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， the Hurst index， and the coefficient of variation. Partial correlation and complex correlation analysis were used to explore the impact of hydro-thermal factors on vegetation NPP. Land transfer matrix， zoning statistics， and other methods were used to explore the impact of underlying surface factors on vegetation NPP. The study produced several important results： ① The vegetation NPP in the Hutuo River Basin showed an overall increase trend from 2003 to 2022， but its future trend mainly changes from increase to decrease. ② The partial correlation between vegetation NPP and temperature and precipitation is mainly nonsignificant positive， with only 42.74% of the basin being significantly correlated， and the main driving force for vegetation NPP changes in the Hutuo River Basin is precipitation. ③ Vegetation NPP increases with increase of elevation and terrain position and first increases and then decreases with increase of slope. The increase rate of vegetation NPP first increases and then decreases with increase of terrain level. The higher the elevation， the smaller the fluctuation of vegetation NPP， and the impact of slope and terrain position greater than 0.5 on the fluctuation of vegetation NPP is smaller. ④ The transition between grassland and cultivated land has the greatest impact on vegetation NPP in Hutuo River Basin. The total NPP of grassland is highest in the Ⅳ levels of terrain level （elevation of 1 000-1 500 m， slope of 15°-25°， and terrain position of 1.5-2.0）， while the NPP of cultivated land is the highest at the Ⅲ level of elevation （500-1 000 m）， Ⅰ level of slope （&lt;5°）， and Ⅱ level of terrain position （0.5-1.0）. The results of this study not only demonstrate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of vegetation NPP in the Hutuo River Basin in recent years but also reflect the magnitude of forces exerted by hydro-thermal factors and underlying surface factors on NPP changes， thus providing theoretical references for the ecological environment construction and future development of this basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5825-5838"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145082042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Enrichment Levels and Source Apportionment of Heavy Metals in Grassland Soil of the One River and Its Two Tributaries in Xizang].","authors":"Dian-Qing Gong, Zhao-Feng Wang, Yi-Li Zhang, Xiao-Yang Hu, Bo Wei","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202408075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202408075","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>An understanding of the spatial distribution， accumulation levels， and sources of heavy metals in grassland soils on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has significant implications for protection of the local ecology. This study focused on the grassland soils of the \"One River and Its Two Tributaries\" region， where 561 soil samples were collected to analyze the concentrations and spatial distribution of heavy metals （Cr， Ni， Cu， Zn， Pb， Cd， As， and Hg） within the top 40 cm of soil. Three methods were used to evaluate heavy metal enrichment and accumulation： the enrichment factor， single factor pollution index， and pollution load index. In addition， the positive matrix factorization （PMF） model was used to identify the sources of these heavy metals. The results showed that the mean concentration of heavy metals in the grassland soil was below the pollutant risk screening threshold in the study area， indicating that the soil was not polluted. However， the concentrations of Cu， Zn， and Cd exceeded the background levels of Xizang and China， indicating the presence of distinctive regional characteristics. The soil heavy metal evaluation suggested that the enrichment and accumulation levels of Hg and Cd in the grassland soils were relatively higher than those of the natural background values of Xizang. This finding warrants further attention and investigation. Spatially， the enrichment levels of Hg were higher in the southern counties along the Yarlung Zangbo River， and Cd enrichment levels were higher in the counties of Lhasa. Soil Hg and Cd showed an increasing trend in enrichment and accumulation with increasing elevation. The PMF results of the source apportionment demonstrated that the concentration of heavy metals in the grassland soils was influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. The concentration of Cr was derived from the lithology， with a contribution rate of 68.2%. Soil Cd and As were primarily influenced by soil parent material， with contribution rates of 47.3% and 75.7%， respectively. The concentrations of Ni， Pb， Cu， and Zn were mainly influenced by mineralization zones and mining activities， with contribution rates of 73%， 49.1%， 50.7%， and 66%， respectively. The majority of the Hg （64.3%） was derived from atmospheric deposition. These findings provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of grassland soil pollution and ecological protection in the \"One River and Its Two Tributaries\" region.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"6046-6055"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Pattern， Regional Disparities， and Dynamic Evolution of Low-Carbon Economic Transition in the Yellow River Basin].","authors":"Wei-Zhi Zhang, Xue-Gang Chen","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202408140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202408140","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Low-carbon economic transformation is a key driver of China's ecological civilization construction， and it is decisive for achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In this study， 78 cities in the Yellow River Basin were selected as research objects， and the degree of low-carbon economic transition in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2021 was measured by the entropy weight-TOPSIS method from four dimensions， namely， low-carbon society， low-carbon industry， low-carbon efficiency， and low-carbon environment. Meanwhile， the spatiotemporal pattern， regional differences， and dynamic evolution characteristics were explored deeply by using kernel density， Dagum Gini coefficient， spatial autocorrelation， and spatial Markov chain analyses. The study produced several important results： ① The low-carbon economic transformation in the Yellow River Basin has been improving as a whole， with an average annual growth rate of 4.9%， the spatial distribution of the pattern of 'middle reaches， upstream， and downstream' has been increasing， and there is a polarization phenomenon in the Yellow River Basin and the downstream areas. ② The spatial differences in low-carbon economic transformation are gradually decreasing， with different gaps and trends within and between regions. The hypervariable density is the main source of spatial differences， with an annual average contribution rate of 53.5%. ③ Low-carbon economic transformation is more uneven spatially， with significant positive spatial correlation. Local agglomeration is dominated by high-high agglomeration types， low-low agglomeration phenomena are gradually disappearing， and low-high agglomeration and high-low agglomeration types are diverse and variable. ④ Low-carbon economic transformation is characterized by 'club convergence'， with a clear tendency for upward shifts and a lower likelihood of downward shifts and leapfrogging. In addition， there is a significant spatial spillover effect， which is manifested in the fact that a higher level of neighborhood types is associated with a stronger spatial spillover effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5554-5565"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Vegetation NPP in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2022].","authors":"He Fang, Gao-Feng Fan, Kuo Wang, Yue He, Shou-Hai Shi, Zheng-Quan Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202408215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202408215","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Yangtze River Delta Region is one of China's most open， innovative， and economically active regions， and understanding the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of its net primary productivity （NPP） plays an important role in revealing the status of vegetation restoration and guiding ecological restoration. Based on the MODIS NDVI remote sensing dataset and meteorological data， the NPP data in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2022 were estimated by using the carbon flux model of terrestrial ecosystem. In addition， the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and stability of NPP in the study area were estimated by using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， the Mann-Kendall significance test， and the coefficient of variation method. Using partial derivative analysis， the contributions of climate factors and human activities to NPP change in this region were quantitatively revealed， and the driving factors of NPP change were analyzed. The results follow： ① The vegetation net primary productivity （NPP） in the Yangtze River Delta Region showed a fluctuating upward trend， with a rate of 3.62 g·m^-2， from 2000 to 2022. ② The average vegetation NPP exhibited pronounced spatial differentiation characteristics， typically exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north and high in the west and low in the east. In the past 23 years， the vegetation NPP changed with a significant increase trend， which accounted for 48.15% of the total area of the study area. ③ During the study period， the NPP of vegetation in the Yangtze River Delta was dominated by low fluctuation and medium fluctuation， accounting for 51.83 and 30.36% of the total area of the study area， respectively. ④ The contribution of climate change to vegetation NPP changes in the Yangtze River Delta Region was greater than that of human activities， which had a more significant negative impact. ⑤ The driving mechanism analysis showed that the vegetation NPP changes in the Yangtze River Delta Region were largely attributable to the decrease due to the influence of human activities.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5788-5799"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Synergistic Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Reduction in High-carbon Manufacturing Industries in the Yellow River Basin and Its Influencing Factors].","authors":"Wen-Hui Yue, Li-Jun Zhang, Yao-Chen Qin, Tian-Yang Hao, Yu-Xiang Wang, Xiu-Fang Liu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202409143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202409143","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Studying the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in high-carbon manufacturing industries can help deepen understanding of the synergistic mechanisms between low-carbon transformation and air quality improvement， which has great significance for promotion of the \"dual carbon\" goal and clean air action. However， the synergistic mechanisms of pollution reduction and carbon reduction have not been discussed fully. Therefore， using data such as the multi-scale emission inventory dataset and the industrial enterprise census database， the synergy control cross-elasticity coefficient， panel regression， and GTWR models were used to analyze the changes in the synergistic effect of the urban high-carbon manufacturing industry and its influencing factors during the period from 2000 to 2020. The study produced several useful results： ① In the Yellow River Basin， the pollutant emissions of the high-carbon manufacturing industry showed an inverted U-shaped change， and the emissions decreased by 58.14%. Carbon emissions continued to increase， but the rate of growth slowed after 2010， and the proportions of cities with inverted U-shaped and linear changes were equal. ② The synergistic control cross-elasticity coefficient of high-carbon manufacturing industries in the Yellow River Basin showed a stage-specific and spatially heterogeneous change pattern， with the synergistic control effect shifting from predominantly counter-synergistic control to a balance of non-synergistic and positive synergistic control. The geographical proximity of synergistic control effects increased constantly， and the agglomeration distribution pattern was obvious. ③ From a broader perspective， the expansion of the number of enterprises and the increase in the proportion of state-owned enterprises are conducive to improving the synergy between pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The expansion of fixed asset investment， the proportion of local enterprises， the proportion of exports， and the improvement in specialization， significantly suppress the synergy between pollution reduction and carbon reduction. ④ From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity characteristics， the spatial heterogeneity changes of various factors are relatively complex， but the direction of the effects of enterprise number， specialization， fixed asset investment proportion， and local enterprise proportion are stable. The directions of the effects of diversification， state-owned enterprise proportion， and export proportion are more volatile. The research results of this study provide policy references for improving the synergy level of pollution reduction and carbon reduction from the aspects of scale expansion， industrial agglomeration， environmental regulation， and foreign exports.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5566-5576"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Investigation of Dissolved Oxygen Drivers in the Chaohu Basin Using Explainable Integrated Machine Learning].","authors":"Ze-Hua Xu, Bai-Yin Liu, Bin Li, Wen-Ting Qiu, Zhi-Miao Zhang, Wei Wang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202407234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202407234","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dissolved oxygen （DO） is a crucial indicator of the health of aquatic ecosystems. Low concentrations of DO can threaten the survival of aquatic life and disrupt the balance of ecosystems. Therefore， accurately identifying and quantifying the factors influencing DO is essential for developing effective water resource management strategies. This study selected the Chaohu Lake Basin as a case study area and utilized integrated machine learning methods and SHAP analysis to identify and explain the key factors affecting DO variations in the region systematically. By integrating models such as Random Forest， LightGBM， and XGBoost， the study demonstrated that a highly accurate predictive model can be constructed （<i>R</i>²=0.94， RMSE=0.62 mg·L^-1， MAE=0.41 mg·L^-1）. Water temperature， ammonia nitrogen （NH₃-N）， and pH were identified as the primary factors affecting DO concentrations， contributing 53.5%， 17.6%， and 9.1% of the effect， respectively. During hypoxic phases， the dominant factors shift， with the importance of water temperature and NH₃-N decreasing by 20.5% and 7.9%， while the significance of pH， relative humidity， and conductivity increases by 7.1%， 3.7%， and 4.8%， respectively. Partial dependence analysis revealed that increasing water temperature and NH₃-N concentration significantly decrease DO levels； a moderate pH facilitates the dissolution of oxygen， whereas extremely acidic or alkaline conditions may negatively impact DO. Under interactive effects， high temperatures， increased total phosphorus， and low atmospheric pressure amplify the negative impact of temperature on DO concentrations. Through these analyses， this study enhances understanding of the dynamics of DO， providing data support and scientific basis for DO monitoring， hypoxia warning， and management in the Chaohu Lake Basin and thereby aiding in the sustainable use and ecological protection of its water resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5641-5649"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Lifecycle Environmental Impact Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Coach].","authors":"Ze-Lin Wang, Jia-Kun Si, Qing-Shan Liu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202408072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202408072","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The development of hydrogen fuel cell coach （HFCC） presents an ideal solution to address challenges such as energy security and air pollution. To quantify the life-cycle environmental impacts of HFCCs， a comprehensive evaluation model was established based on the life cycle assessment （LCA） methodology. This model assesses material resource consumption， fossil energy consumption， carbon emissions， and pollutant emissions throughout the HFCC lifecycle， incorporating uncertainty analysis of key influencing factors. The study investigates the environmental impacts under various scenarios， including different fuel cell degradation scenarios， electricity structures， and hydrogen pathways. The results indicate that the material resource consumption was highest during the raw material acquisition phase. During the operation and use stage， the consumption of fossil energy， carbon emissions， and pollutant emissions accounted for the largest proportion， mainly due to the large consumption of hydrogen energy by HFCCs during their lifespan and the high energy consumption in the hydrogen production process. Through photovoltaic electrolysis of water for hydrogen production technology， the energy consumption and carbon emissions of HFCCs could be significantly reduced throughout its entire lifecycle. Under a simulated fuel cell degradation scenario in which hydrogen consumption increased by 13.9%， the life cycle energy consumption of HFCCs based on photovoltaic electrolysis water increased by 12.05%， and carbon emissions increased by 9.21%. Optimizing the hydrogen path can improve environmental effects. When photovoltaic electrolysis water for hydrogen production was matched with pipeline transportation of hydrogen， the life cycle energy consumption and carbon emissions of HFCCs were the lowest. Therefore， HFCCs based on hydrogen production from renewable energy sources showed significant potential for energy saving and emission reduction in the future. In contrast， HFCCs relying on mixed power electrolysis for hydrogen production was relatively weak in terms of energy saving and emission reduction. At the same time， it is recommended to use pipeline hydrogen transportation as the main transportation mode.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5595-5607"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Scenario Analysis of Carbon Peaking in a Northern Coastal City Based on the STIRPAT Model].","authors":"Ze-Jun Liu, Mei-Ting Ju","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202409185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202409185","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Research on carbon peaking scenario analysis is of great significance for local governments to formulate carbon reduction policies and achieve carbon neutrality on schedule. Based on the social development and energy consumption data from a northern coastal city Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2023， the total amounts of carbon emissions and sinks from 2011 to 2022 were calculated according to the recommended formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）， the main driving factors of local carbon emissions reduction were screened， and the peak carbon was predicted using extended STIRPAT model combined scenario analysis. The study produced several results： ① GDP per capita， energy structure， energy intensity， urbanization rate， and industrial structure were the main drivers of carbon reduction in this coastal city. GDP per capita was the largest driver. ② Under the baseline scenario， the carbon emissions in this coastal city were increasing. Under the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario， the carbon emissions of the coastal city will peak at 39 915 300 t and 39 701 700 t in 2030 and 2025， respectively. The enhanced low-carbon scenario is the most suitable scenario for the development needs of this coastal city.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 9","pages":"5524-5534"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145081806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}