[Scenario Analysis of Carbon Peaking in a Northern Coastal City Based on the STIRPAT Model].

Research on carbon peaking scenario analysis is of great significance for local governments to formulate carbon reduction policies and achieve carbon neutrality on schedule. Based on the social development and energy consumption data from a northern coastal city Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2023， the total amounts of carbon emissions and sinks from 2011 to 2022 were calculated according to the recommended formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）， the main driving factors of local carbon emissions reduction were screened， and the peak carbon was predicted using extended STIRPAT model combined scenario analysis. The study produced several results： ① GDP per capita， energy structure， energy intensity， urbanization rate， and industrial structure were the main drivers of carbon reduction in this coastal city. GDP per capita was the largest driver. ② Under the baseline scenario， the carbon emissions in this coastal city were increasing. Under the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario， the carbon emissions of the coastal city will peak at 39 915 300 t and 39 701 700 t in 2030 and 2025， respectively. The enhanced low-carbon scenario is the most suitable scenario for the development needs of this coastal city.