[基于LEAP模型的山西省能源活动领域碳峰值路径研究]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Jing-di Jia, Fei Wang, Yuan-Yuan Zhang, Huai-Gang Cheng, Hai-Bin Wu, Yang-Yan Gao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在“双碳”目标背景下,正处于资源型经济演进阶段的山西亟需模拟全省能源活动碳峰路径,开展省级减排措施和政策研究。以山西省能源活动碳排放为核算范围,建立以2020年为基准年的LEAP模型,在此基础上对山西省至2060年的碳排放量进行了模拟计算,并对其未来40年的动态演变趋势进行了模拟。在基线情景下,山西省可能很难在2030年之前达到碳排放峰值。在同步峰值情景下,2030年中国能源消费总量(以标准煤计)可能达到4.1126亿吨,碳排放总量(以CO2计)可能达到碳排放峰值;在领先峰值情景下,碳排放峰值时间将提前到2028年,届时中国能源消费总量预计为3.9903亿吨,碳排放总量将达到6.7522亿吨。此外,在基线情景下,单位GDP能源强度和单位GDP碳排放强度达到峰值的目标很难如期实现,但采用更节能的设备和技术、积极推动可再生能源发展、减少对化石燃料的依赖等措施可以有效降低能源消耗和碳排放。在同峰情景和领峰情景下,“十四五”规划确定的约束性目标均能顺利实现,表明山西省在积极应对气候变化、推动绿色发展的道路上有能力、有潜力实现既定目标。为实现这一目标,山西省需要进一步加强政策引导和市场机制建设,鼓励企业和社会各界积极参与能源消费和转型过程。特别是要加大对可再生能源的投入和研发,促进清洁能源技术的创新和应用,加快构建以新能源为主体的新型电力体系。同时,加强能源消费结构的优化调整,推动能源消费向绿色低碳方向转变是必要的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Carbon Peaking Pathways in the Field of Energy Activities in Shanxi Province Based on the LEAP model].

Under the background of the "dual carbon" goal, Shanxi Province must crucially simulate the carbon peak path of energy activities in Shanxi Province and carry out provincial-level emission reduction measures and policy research, which is in the stage of evolution of resource-based economy. Taking the carbon emissions of energy activities in Shanxi Province as the accounting scope, the LEAP model was established in 2020 as the base year and on this basis, the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province were simulated and calculated to 2060 and its dynamic evolution trend over the next 40 years was simulated. Under the baseline scenario, Shanxi Province may find it difficult to peak carbon emissions before 2030. Under the synchronous peak scenario, the total energy consumption (in terms of standard coal) may be 411.26 million tons in 2030 and the carbon emissions (in terms of CO2) may reach the peak of carbon emissions and under the leading peak scenario, the carbon peak time will be advanced to 2028, when the total energy consumption is expected to be 399.03 million tons, and carbon emissions will reach 675.22 million tons. In addition, under the baseline scenario, achieving the goal of peaking energy intensity per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP as scheduled will be difficult; however, measures, such as adopting more energy-efficient equipment and technologies, actively promoting the development of renewable energy, and reducing dependence on fossil fuels can effectively reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. In both the simultaneous and leading peak scenarios, the binding targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan can be successfully achieved, demonstrating that Shanxi Province has the ability and potential to achieve the set goals on the road of actively responding to climate change and promoting green development. To achieve this goal, Shanxi Province needs to further strengthen policy guidance and market mechanism construction, encourage enterprises, and all sectors of society to actively participate in the process of energy consumption and transformation. In particular, investment and research and development in renewable energy must be increased; the innovation and application of clean energy technologies, promoted; and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, accelerated. Simultaneously, strengthening the optimization and adjustment of the energy consumption structure and promoting the transformation of energy consumption to a green and low-carbon direction are necessary.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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