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'Proudly Canadian' and 'no Big Tobacco affiliation': STLTH e-cigarette advertising and positioning in Canada. 自豪的加拿大人 "和 "与大烟草公司无关":加拿大的 STLTH 电子烟广告和定位。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-057960
Timothy Dewhirst
{"title":"'Proudly Canadian' and 'no Big Tobacco affiliation': STLTH e-cigarette advertising and positioning in Canada.","authors":"Timothy Dewhirst","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-057960","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-057960","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"833-836"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9482865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Update to the design and methods of the PATH Study, Wave 4 (2016-2017). 更新PATH研究的设计和方法,第四阶段(2016-2017)。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057851
Jean D Opsomer, Sylvia Dohrmann, Ralph DiGaetano, Andrea Piesse, Ethel Taylor, MeLisa R Creamer, Daifeng Han, Colm Everard, Nicolette Borek, Frost Hubbard, Izabella Zandberg, Moana Kanel, Kristie Taylor, Heather L Kimmel, Antonio Paredes, Yumiko Siegfried, Yu-Ching Cheng, Jonathan Kwan, Charles Carusi, Andrew Hyland
{"title":"Update to the design and methods of the PATH Study, Wave 4 (2016-2017).","authors":"Jean D Opsomer, Sylvia Dohrmann, Ralph DiGaetano, Andrea Piesse, Ethel Taylor, MeLisa R Creamer, Daifeng Han, Colm Everard, Nicolette Borek, Frost Hubbard, Izabella Zandberg, Moana Kanel, Kristie Taylor, Heather L Kimmel, Antonio Paredes, Yumiko Siegfried, Yu-Ching Cheng, Jonathan Kwan, Charles Carusi, Andrew Hyland","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057851","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2022-057851","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a nationally representative study of the US population on tobacco use and its effects on health, with four waves of data collection between 2013 and 2017. Prior work described the methods of the first three waves. In this paper, we describe the methods of Wave 4, during which a replenishment sample was added to the ongoing cohort. We describe the design and estimation methods of the continuing Wave 1 cohort (with four waves of data) and the Wave 4 cohort (the new cohort created at Wave 4). We provide survey quality metrics, including response rates for both cohorts and a panel conditioning analysis, and guidance on understanding the target populations for both cohorts.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"733-738"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10687305/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9557284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the weight of consumed tobacco product waste in various Indian states: a novel method to assess the potential burden of tobacco product waste. 估算印度各州消耗的烟草制品废物的重量:一种评估烟草制品废物潜在负担的新方法。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058118
Yogesh Kumar Jain, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Nitin Kumar Joshi, Prashant Kumar Singh, Pranay Lal, Shivam Kapoor, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Prem Prakash Sharma, Shalini Singh
{"title":"Estimating the weight of consumed tobacco product waste in various Indian states: a novel method to assess the potential burden of tobacco product waste.","authors":"Yogesh Kumar Jain, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Nitin Kumar Joshi, Prashant Kumar Singh, Pranay Lal, Shivam Kapoor, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Prem Prakash Sharma, Shalini Singh","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058118","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058118","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>The direct morbidity and mortality caused by tobacco are well documented, but such products also contribute to a range of environmental pollutants resulting from tobacco product waste. No previous studies have yet quantified tobacco product waste in a low-income and middle-income country (LMIC). This study estimates the potential annual waste generated due to consumption of smoked and smokeless tobacco products in India and its states.</p><p><strong>Methodology: </strong>We systematically collected samples of smoked and smokeless tobacco products from 33 districts of 17 Indian states/union territories. Stratified weights of plastic, paper, foil and filter packaging components, and gross empty package weights were recorded. Prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use at national and state-level estimates was derived from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2016-2017) to quantify waste potentially generated by tobacco products.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included 222 brands of tobacco products (70 cigarette, 94 bidi and 58 smokeless tobacco brands) in the final analysis. A total of 170 331 (±29 332) tonnes of waste was estimated to be generated annually, out of which 43.2% was plastic, 3.6% was foil and 0.8% was filter. Two-thirds of the overall waste was contributed by smokeless products alone. Maximum waste was generated in Uttar Pradesh (20.9%; 35 723.7±6151.6 tonnes), Maharashtra (8.9%; 15 116.84±2603.12 tonnes) and West Bengal (8.6%; 14 636.32±2520.37 tonnes).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study provides first of its kind national-level evidence on the types (plastic, paper, foil and filter) and quantity of waste potentially generated by use of tobacco products in India. Similar studies from other LMICs can serve to raise consciousness about many negative environmental impacts of tobacco products and need for policies to address them.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"775-780"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41129994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues. 更好的卷烟税收政策和更高的烟草消费税收入。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057808
Hye Myung Lee, Jeffrey Drope, Carlos Manuel Guerrero-López, Anne-Marie Perucic, Frank J Chaloupka
{"title":"Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues.","authors":"Hye Myung Lee, Jeffrey Drope, Carlos Manuel Guerrero-López, Anne-Marie Perucic, Frank J Chaloupka","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057808","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2022-057808","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the <i>Cigarette Tax Scorecard</i> which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using cigarette tax scores from the <i>Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard</i> and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"727-732"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503097/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10140227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Association of nicotine replacement therapy product sales with menthol cigarette sales restriction in Massachusetts. 马萨诸塞州尼古丁替代疗法产品销售与薄荷卷烟销售限制的关联。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-057942
Samuel Asare, Zheng Xue, Priti Bandi, Johann Lee Westmaas, Ahmedin Jemal, Nigar Nargis
{"title":"Association of nicotine replacement therapy product sales with menthol cigarette sales restriction in Massachusetts.","authors":"Samuel Asare, Zheng Xue, Priti Bandi, Johann Lee Westmaas, Ahmedin Jemal, Nigar Nargis","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-057942","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-057942","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Massachusetts was the first to implement a state-wide menthol cigarette sales restriction in the USA. Following its implementation in June 2020, evidence showed declines in cigarette sales in Massachusetts; however, changes in nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) product sales are unknown.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This cohort study analysed NRT products sold by US-based retailers available in 26 states from the Nielsen Retail Scanner Data. Outcomes were state-level 4-week aggregate sales of gum, lozenge and patch NRT products converted into pieces per 1000 adults (aged ≥18 years) who smoke cigarettes based on smoking rates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and corresponding population from the US Census Bureau. We used a difference-in-differences method to compare changes in NRT product sales in Massachusetts before (1 January 2017 to 13 June 2020) and after (14 June 2020 to 4 December 2021) the policy with sales in 25 states.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analysis included 1664 observations for each NRT product, with 1170 from before and 494 from after the policy change. The 4-week NRT product sales per 1000 adults who smoke cigarettes in Massachusetts compared with the comparison states increased for gums by 643.11 (95% CI 365.33 to 920.89; p<0.001) pieces or 12.9% and for lozenges by 436.97 (95% CI 292.88 to 581.06; p<0.001) pieces or 17.9% but no statistically significant change in patches after implementing the policy.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The increases in sales of gum and lozenge NRT products in Massachusetts after implementing the policy suggest that a nationwide ban on menthol cigarettes can increase NRT product use; therefore, interventions are needed to strengthen cessation support for adults who smoke cigarettes but intend to quit.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"813-816"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9438517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Moving hearts and minds: how the Big Tobacco, Tiny Targets campaign builds support for tobacco control policy. 打动人心:"大烟草,小目标 "运动如何为烟草控制政策争取支持。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057917
Jennifer L Brown, Natalia Parra, Joanna E Cohen, Maria G Carmona, Mark Hurley, Debra Rosen
{"title":"Moving hearts and minds: how the Big Tobacco, Tiny Targets campaign builds support for tobacco control policy.","authors":"Jennifer L Brown, Natalia Parra, Joanna E Cohen, Maria G Carmona, Mark Hurley, Debra Rosen","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057917","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2022-057917","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"829-832"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503194/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9639937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of a smoke-free beaches intervention in Barcelona: a quasi-experimental study. 对巴塞罗那无烟海滩干预措施的评估:一项准实验研究。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057873
Sara Valmayor, Kilian González, Maria J López, Patricia Lacera, Patricia Giménez, Aitor Rumín-Caparrós, Maria Isabel Pasarín, Elisabet Henderson, Elia Díez
{"title":"Evaluation of a smoke-free beaches intervention in Barcelona: a quasi-experimental study.","authors":"Sara Valmayor, Kilian González, Maria J López, Patricia Lacera, Patricia Giménez, Aitor Rumín-Caparrós, Maria Isabel Pasarín, Elisabet Henderson, Elia Díez","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057873","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2022-057873","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>We aim to assess the effect of a smoke-free beaches (SFB) intervention in Barcelona on smoking during the 2021 bathing season.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Quasi-experimental pre-post design (pre-intervention period: 15-28 May; post-intervention period: 29 May-12 September). Based on users' profiles and location, four beaches were assigned to the intervention group (IG) and five to the comparison group (CG). The intervention involved: a mayoral decree (29 May), a communication campaign and beach on-site information. We established two 3 m × 3 m transects per beach from the coastline to the promenade. Trained teams collected smoking-related information in the transects through observations and surveys to beach users. Outcomes are as follows: percentage of people reporting witnessing smoking behaviours the last fortnight and percentage of people observed smoking. We calculated and compared prevalence ratios (PRs) with adjusted Poisson regressions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>3751 interviews (1721 IG; 2030 CG) and 1108 observations (498 IG, 610 CG) were carried out. SFB were associated with a significant reduction in the percentage of people reporting witnessing smoking (IG (pre: 87.2%; post: 49.7%); CG (pre: 86.2%; post: 74.1%); PR (95% CI): 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)); and in the users observed smoking in the beach (IG (pre: 3.8%; post: 3.0%); CG (pre: 2.3%; post: 9.9%); PR (95% CI): 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4)). Satisfaction scores were 8.3 (IG) and 8.1 (CG) out of 10.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>An SFB intervention is an effective and well-accepted measure to reduce smoking and smokers' visibility. Smoke-free measures should be extended to beaches and other non-regulated outdoor areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"820-824"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503146/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10127990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tobacco industry corporate social responsibility activities and other interference after ratification of a strong tobacco law in Ethiopia. 埃塞俄比亚批准强有力的烟草法后,烟草业的企业社会责任活动和其他干扰。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058079
Sisay Derso Mengesha, Claire Brolan, Coral E Gartner
{"title":"Tobacco industry corporate social responsibility activities and other interference after ratification of a strong tobacco law in Ethiopia.","authors":"Sisay Derso Mengesha, Claire Brolan, Coral E Gartner","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058079","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058079","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Since strict new tobacco control laws were introduced in 2019 and 2020, the National Tobacco Enterprise (NTE), the main manufacturer and distributor of cigarettes in Ethiopia, strategically engaged in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities and other tactics to interfere in tobacco control policymaking. This study systematically identified and reviewed tobacco industry activities that undermine Ethiopia's strict new tobacco control laws.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collated, reviewed and analysed evidence on tobacco industry CSR activities from February 2019 to November 2022 in Ethiopia, including newspapers, organisational websites, social media and government documents related to tobacco industry activities, contract agreements and other policy interference attempts.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>NTE's CSR activities included: (1) Funding educational programmes (eg, postgraduate scholarships); (2) Community service (eg, donating COVID-19 prevention materials, providing water, sanitation and hygiene supplies); and (3) Supporting government programmes (eg, greening initiatives and training programmes). NTE facilitated CSR activities via a contract agreement with the Ethiopian government that was created when Japan Tobacco International purchased the Government's majority share in NTE. NTE subsequently partnered with the Japanese Embassy in Addis Ababa and private law firms on CSR activities. The tobacco control community stopped NTE distributing free COVID-19 prevention products in Addis Ababa but had limited impact on other identified breaches of laws prohibiting tobacco advertising promotion and sponsorship.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The new laws have not stopped NTE using multiple CSR activities to interfere in tobacco control policy. Regular monitoring of tobacco industry CSR activities to identify potential breaches is recommended. Moreover, the Ethiopian government should revise its contractual agreement with NTE to end NTE's participation in law-making processes and partnerships on illicit tobacco control.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"767-774"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503152/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10628005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of IQOS modified risk messaging on physicians' product perceptions and recommendations. IQOS修改后的风险信息对医生产品认知和建议的影响。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-057963
Olivia A Wackowski, Michael B Steinberg, Cristine D Delnevo
{"title":"Impact of IQOS modified risk messaging on physicians' product perceptions and recommendations.","authors":"Olivia A Wackowski, Michael B Steinberg, Cristine D Delnevo","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-057963","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-057963","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"837-838"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10698203/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9576404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What measures are needed to achieve a tobacco endgame target? A Singapore-based simulation study. 实现烟草终局目标需要采取哪些措施?基于新加坡的模拟研究。
IF 4 2区 医学
Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057856
Zitong Zeng, Alex R Cook, Yvette van der Eijk
{"title":"What measures are needed to achieve a tobacco endgame target? A Singapore-based simulation study.","authors":"Zitong Zeng, Alex R Cook, Yvette van der Eijk","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057856","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2022-057856","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>An increasing number of countries are pursuing a tobacco 'endgame'. We sought to determine the combination of measures it would take to achieve a tobacco endgame in the city-state of Singapore.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using an open-cohort microsimulation model, we estimated the impact of existing measures (quit programmes, tobacco taxes, flavours ban) and more novel measures (very low nicotine cap, tobacco-free generation, raising the minimum legal age to 25 years), and combinations thereof, on smoking prevalence in Singapore over a 50-year horizon. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo to estimate transition probabilities between the states of never smoker, current smoker and former smoker, updating each individual's state across each year with prior distributions derived from national survey data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Without new measures, smoking prevalence is expected to rebound from 12.2% (2020) to 14.8% (2070). The only scenarios to achieve a tobacco endgame target within a decade are those combining a very low nicotine cap with a flavours ban. A nicotine cap or tobacco-free generation alone also achieve endgame targets, but after 20 and 39 years, respectively. Taxes, quit programmes, a flavours ban and minimum legal age increase do augment the impact of other measures, but even when combined are insufficient to achieve a tobacco endgame target within 50 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In Singapore, achieving a tobacco endgame within a decade requires a very low nicotine cap coupled with a tobacco flavours ban, although this target can also be achieved in the long term (within 50 years) with a tobacco-free generation.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"745-751"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9583150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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