{"title":"Beyond the Diagonal Reference Model: Critiques and New Directions in the Analysis of Mobility Effects","authors":"Ethan Fosse, Fabian T. Pfeffer","doi":"10.1177/00491241251358895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251358895","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decade there has been a striking increase in the number of quantitative studies examining the effects of social mobility, with almost all based on the diagonal reference model (DRM). We make four main contributions to this rapidly expanding literature. First, we show that under plausible values of mobility effects, the DRM will, in many cases, implicitly force the underlying mobility linear effect toward zero. In addition, we show both mathematically and through simulations that the mobility effects estimated by the DRM are sensitive to the size and sign of the origin and destination linear effects, often in ways that are unlikely to be intuitive to applied researchers. This finding clarifies why, contrary to expectations, applied researchers have generally found mixed evidence of mobility effects. Second, we generalize the identification problem of conventional mobility effect models by showing that the DRM and related methods can be viewed as special cases of a bounding analysis, where identification is achieved by invoking extremely strong assumptions. Finally, and importantly, we present a new framework for the analysis of mobility tables based on the identification and estimation of joint parameter sets, introducing what we call the structural and dynamic inequality model. We show that this model is fully identified, relies on much weaker assumptions than conventional models of mobility effects, and can be treated both as a descriptive model and, if additional assumptions are invoked, as a causal model. We conclude with an agenda for further research on the consequences of socioeconomic mobility.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"158 1","pages":"1339-1395"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145246409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Causal Duration Analysis Based on Survival Probability Ratio","authors":"Jin-young Choi, Rangmi Myung, Myoung-jae Lee","doi":"10.1177/00491241251382457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251382457","url":null,"abstract":"For causal effects of a binary treatment on a right-censored duration, the widely used proportional hazard contrasts are non-causal with unrealistic restrictions. This article proposes an alternative flexible causal approach, where we estimate the cumulative hazard, not the hazard itself, using an additive or “exponential-additive” specification with freely time-varying parameters. Our approach includes the proportional hazard as a highly special case that allows only monotonic survival probability ratios (SPR’s), while our approach allows any shape of SPR’s. An empirical analysis on recidivism using the duration until re-arrest after prison release on parole/probation is provided, where the SPR trajectory is not monotonic, but has an inverted-U shape over time.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145246410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cody Spence, James D. Bachmeier, Claire E. Altman, Jennifer Van Hook, Kendal Lowrey
{"title":"Migration Status Gradients in Immigrant Poverty: A Comparison of Imputation Methods","authors":"Cody Spence, James D. Bachmeier, Claire E. Altman, Jennifer Van Hook, Kendal Lowrey","doi":"10.1177/00491241251379461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251379461","url":null,"abstract":"Research on the stratifying effects of migration status has increased sharply in the last two decades, although efforts have been hampered by the near absence of representative data that include detailed migration status measures. Researchers have developed various statistical and logical imputation methods that have produced widely varying estimates. In this article, we introduce a new indicator of migration status constructed from two federal surveys matched to the Social Security Administration's Numident file, a database that includes all citizens and legal residents of the United States. In models predicting poverty, our measure produces estimates comparable to those based on respondents’ own self-reports, in one federal survey, of their migration status. Both the administrative and survey-based measures produce poverty gradients that diverge from those produced by logic-based measures. Our findings contribute to mounting evidence of bias in the use of certain kinds of logic-based algorithms to impute migration status and demonstrate the promise of administrative record linkages in migration status research.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145154095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Felix J. Clouth, Maarten J. Bijlsma, Steffen Pauws, Jeroen K. Vermunt
{"title":"Causal Inference for Latent Markov Models Using the Parametric G-Formula","authors":"Felix J. Clouth, Maarten J. Bijlsma, Steffen Pauws, Jeroen K. Vermunt","doi":"10.1177/00491241251377068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251377068","url":null,"abstract":"The parametric g-formula can be used to estimate causal effects of time-varying exposures on observable outcomes. It resolves intermediate confounding in such settings by specifying several parametric models, one each for every time-varying variable, and by performing micro-simulations. However, its restriction to applications with observable outcomes limits its usability for social sciences where variables of interest are often unobservable constructs. In such cases, measurement models are needed. We propose a new approach utilizing bias-adjusted three-step latent Markov models (LMMs) within the parametric g-formula. LMMs estimate the probability of membership in an unobservable state conditional on observed indicator variables. By replacing the parametric models in the g-formula with LMMs, micro-simulations are performed as usual to estimate a causal effect of the time-varying exposure. We illustrate this new approach by estimating the average treatment effect of unemployment on several unobservable mental health states utilizing longitudinal data from the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences panel.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145154096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Optimal Treatment Regimes and Causal Decomposition With Individualized Interventions","authors":"Soojin Park, Suyeon Kang, Chioun Lee","doi":"10.1177/00491241251377741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251377741","url":null,"abstract":"Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing optimal treatment regimes (OTRs). Since the newly defined individualized effects rely on the no omitted confounding assumption, developing sensitivity analyses to account for potential omitted confounding is essential. Moreover, OTRs and individualized effects are primarily based on binary risk factors, and no formal approach currently exists to benchmark the strength of omitted confounding using observed covariates for binary risk factors. To address this gap, we extend a simulation-based sensitivity analysis that simulates unmeasured confounders, addressing two sources of bias emerging from deriving OTRs and estimating individualized effects. Additionally, we propose a formal bounding strategy that benchmarks the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors. Using the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09), we demonstrate this sensitivity analysis and benchmarking method.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adam Stefkovics, Kinga Batiz, Blanka Zsófia Grubits, Anna Sára Ligeti
{"title":"What Types of Survey Questions are Prone to Interviewer Effects? Evidence Based on 29,000 Intra-Interviewer Correlations From 28 Countries of the European Social Survey","authors":"Adam Stefkovics, Kinga Batiz, Blanka Zsófia Grubits, Anna Sára Ligeti","doi":"10.1177/00491241251372509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251372509","url":null,"abstract":"Interviewer effects are a common challenge in face-to-face surveys. Understanding the conditions that make interviewer variance more likely to occur is essential in tackling sources of bias. Earlier evidence suggests that certain features of the survey instrument provide more ground for interviewer influence. For instance, attitudinal, sensitive, complex or open-ended questions invite more interviewer variance. In this article, we aim to validate earlier results, previously derived from single-country studies, by using the large cross-national sample of the European Social Survey (ESS). We compare 29,330 intra-interviewer correlations derived from 984 survey questions from 28 countries using data from 10 waves of the ESS. The questions were manually coded based on several characteristics. These features of survey questions were then used as predictors of intraclass correlations (ICCs) in multilevel models. The results show that question characteristics account for a significant portion of the variation in ICCs, with certain types, such as attitude and non-factual questions, items appearing later in the survey, and those using showcards, being especially susceptible to interviewer effects. Our findings have important implications for both interviewer training and questionnaire design.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145056690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is it Time to Put a Moratorium on List Experiments for Domestic Violence Elicitation? ","authors":"Andreas Kotsadam, Mette Løvgren","doi":"10.1177/00491241251372542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251372542","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from over 24,000 respondents in the Norwegian Crime Victimization Survey, we conducted a double list experiment to measure domestic violence (DV). Both list experiments revealed a statistically significant decrease in reporting when including a sensitive DV item. This clear violation of the “no design effects” assumption is not only explained by floor effects. One possibility is that the results indicate a “fleeing” behavior whereby respondents try to avoid association with DV. Combined with the inherent power limitations of list experiments in many contexts, these results underscore the need for caution in employing list experiments to measure DV, even in large samples.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145017489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fabienne Kraemer, Peter Lugtig, Bella Struminskaya, Henning Silber, Bernd Weiß, Michael Bosnjak
{"title":"Monitoring Attitudes Over Time: Real Change or the Result of Repeated Interviewing?","authors":"Fabienne Kraemer, Peter Lugtig, Bella Struminskaya, Henning Silber, Bernd Weiß, Michael Bosnjak","doi":"10.1177/00491241251372503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251372503","url":null,"abstract":"Panel data are often used to study change and stability in social patterns. However, repeated interviewing may affect respondents’ attitudes in a panel study by triggering reflection processes on the surveyed topics (cognitive stimulus hypothesis) <jats:italic>.</jats:italic> Using data from a survey experiment within a probability-based and a nonprobability panel in Germany, we investigate change—and the mechanisms underlying change—in respondents’ abortion attitudes over six panel waves. The experiment manipulated the frequency of receiving identical attitude questions. We estimate multiple-group and longitudinal structural equation models to differentiate change in the measurement of abortion attitudes from “real” attitude change. Results show that repeatedly administering the same abortion questions increases the reliability of respondents’ reported attitudes and the stability of their latent attitudes toward abortion. However, we find no evidence of an increase in attitude certainty and knowledgeability on abortion and only tentative evidence of improved response behavior (increased attitude reliability) due to general survey experience.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144983398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Angela Carollo, Hein Putter, Paul H.C. Eilers, Jutta Gampe
{"title":"Analysis of Time-to-Event Data With Two Time Scales. An Application to Transitions out of Cohabitation","authors":"Angela Carollo, Hein Putter, Paul H.C. Eilers, Jutta Gampe","doi":"10.1177/00491241251374193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251374193","url":null,"abstract":"Models for time-to-event data are based on transition rates between states, and to define such hazards of experiencing an event, the time scale over which the process evolves needs to be identified. In many applications, however, more than one time scale might be of importance. Here, we demonstrate how to model a hazard jointly over two time dimensions. The model assumes a smooth bivariate hazard function, and the function is estimated by two-dimensional <jats:inline-formula> <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\"> <mml:mi>P</mml:mi> </mml:math> </jats:inline-formula> -splines. We provide an R package for the analysis of event history data with two time scales. As an example, we model transitions from cohabitation to marriage or separation simultaneously over the age of the individual and the duration of the cohabitation. We use data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) and demonstrate that considering the two time scales as equally important provides additional insights about the transition from cohabitation to marriage or separation.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144983288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Exploration of the Presence of Positive-Results Bias in Qualitative Comparative Analysis","authors":"Ingo Rohlfing","doi":"10.1177/00491241251357948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241251357948","url":null,"abstract":"The value of negative results for knowledge advancement stands in contrast to the abundance of positive findings found in quantitative research across research fields. There is reason to believe that positive-results bias is also present in studies that use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This possibility has been neglected so far in work on QCA. This article contributes to the field of meta science and QCA by exploring whether hypothesis-testing QCA articles collectively indicate the presence of positive-results bias. An analysis of consistency scores and comparison of hypotheses and findings reported in QCA articles and PhD theses indicate the presence of biases. The results suggest two implications. First, the interpretation fo findings in a field should take into account that negative results may be underreported. Second, QCA research would benefit from exploring techniques that could be integrated into the research and peer-review process to address positive-results bias.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}