Journal of Infection and Public Health最新文献

{"title":"Anti-tuberculosis therapy combined with ventriculoperitoneal shunt for tuberculous meningitis combined with hydrocephalus: A case report","authors":"Chengmin Sheng ,&nbsp;Mengqi Wang ,&nbsp;Qiongling Bao,&nbsp;Wanru Guo,&nbsp;Hongxin Fu,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Li,&nbsp;Chenxia Zhang,&nbsp;Kaijin Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tuberculous meningitis is a severe and potentially life-threatening form of central nervous system tuberculosis. Hydrocephalus is a critical complication and risk factor for the high mortality of tuberculous meningitis, exacerbating neurological damage and intensifying treatment. We reported a critical case of an elderly male patient with altered consciousness of consciousness who was diagnosed as tuberculous meningitis with hydrocephalus. The patient was treated with multi-drug anti-tuberculosis therapy, intracranial hypertension control, and surgical intervention consisting of external ventricular drainage and ventriculoperitoneal shunt, which successfully cured the patient.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102914"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recurrence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors among Non-HIV patients in Taiwan: A retrospective cohort study","authors":"Che-min Hsu ,&nbsp;Chia-Ju Wu ,&nbsp;Chih-Jung Chang ,&nbsp;Sheng-Wei Pan ,&nbsp;Yen-Han Tseng ,&nbsp;Jhong-Ru Huang ,&nbsp;Wei-Juin Su ,&nbsp;Jia-Yih Feng ,&nbsp;Yuh-Min Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background/Purpose</h3><div>Despite effective short-course anti-tuberculosis (TB) treatments, TB recurrence remains a significant public health issue. This study aims to investigate the rate of TB recurrence and its associated risk factors in Taiwan.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Patients with active TB who completed anti-TB treatment from 2012 to 2019 at Taipei Veterans General Hospital were identified and included in the analysis. All enrolled cases were followed for up to 6 years to identify TB recurrence using the CDC registration database in Taiwan. The evolving trends in annual TB recurrence rates were examined. Independent demographic, clinical, and microbiological factors associated with TB recurrence were also investigated.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A total of 1875 patients with active TB were enrolled in the analysis. The overall TB recurrence rate was determined to be 2.0 % (434 per 100,000 person-years), with a median follow-up duration of 72 months. A notable decline in the recurrence rate was observed post-2017. The peak recurrence rate was observed during the second year following treatment completion. Independent factors associated with TB recurrence included a body mass index (BMI) &lt;20 kg/m² (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 4.38, 95 % CI:1.70–11.30, p = 0.002), a history of previous TB (aHR 4.28, 95 % CI: 1.77–10.35, p = 0.001), and 2-month sputum TB culture non-conversion (aHR:3.37, 95 % CI: 1.36–8.38, p = 0.009). These observations were further corroborated through subgroup analyses, encompassing pulmonary TB and culture-confirmed pulmonary TB.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The TB recurrence rate in Taiwan is low and shows a declining trend. Independent factors associated with TB recurrence included low BMI, previous TB, and 2-month sputum TB culture non-conversion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102912"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the relationship between environmental health measures and the control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fars province during the years 2020–2022","authors":"Zahra Derakhshan ,&nbsp;Saeed Varzandeh ,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Samae ,&nbsp;Mohammad Fararouei ,&nbsp;Hassan Hashemi ,&nbsp;Masoud Ghanbarian","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102909","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102909","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The outbreak of COVID-19 and its global challenges highlighted the need for comprehensive information to prevent and control the disease due to its high mortality rate. Given the lack of sufficient data on COVID-19, scientific evaluation of the relationship between public health guidelines and epidemic control is essential. Fars Province, the most important province in southern Iran was selected for this study due to its powerful data collection network in the health sector.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>Data on incidence, hospitalization, and mortality due to COVID-19 were collected from all hospitals in Fars province during the first two years of the epidemic. Additionally, data on compliance with health guidelines and other governmental interventions were gathered through an index monitoring system. Data analysis was performed using descriptive methods, regression models, and time series analysis (ARIMA model).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>No significant relationship was observed between full compliance with health guidelines and the rates of infection, hospitalization, and mortality. Also, other interventions including activity restrictions, travel bans, vaccination, general quarantine, screening, and environmental health inspections showed no significant association with epidemic control (<em>P</em>-value &gt; 0.05). However, prosecuting violators and closing non-compliant businesses within two months of enforcement led to a significant reduction in infection (<em>P</em>-value = 0.019) and death (<em>P</em>-value = 0.006) rates, effectively contributing to epidemic control.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>While adherence to public health guidelines alone did not significantly impact COVID-19 control, strict enforcement measures, including prosecution and business closures, played a crucial role in reducing infection and mortality rates. These findings emphasize the importance of regulatory enforcement in managing epidemics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102909"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling risk factors and sandfly ecology in cutaneous leishmaniasis-endemic areas of the Asir Region, Saudi Arabia","authors":"Yasser Alraey ,&nbsp;Abdulaziz Alshahrani ,&nbsp;Thunan Saad M. Alshahrani ,&nbsp;Nasser Hassan Awdah Al Draim ,&nbsp;Abdulqader A. Sumayli ,&nbsp;Abdullah M. Mana ,&nbsp;Abdulrahman Abdullah Alqahtani ,&nbsp;Mohammed Saad AlAbdullah ,&nbsp;Abdulmajeed M. Mjrashi ,&nbsp;Saeed j Alqhtani ,&nbsp;Waleed S. Al Salem","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a significant public health challenge in the Asir region of southwest Saudi Arabia. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with CL transmission through a case-control questionnaire and to investigate the local sandfly population as potential vectors.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>From June to December 2022, sandflies were collected using paper traps from four CL-endemic locations: Khamis Mushait, Belhamr, Mahayel, and Rijal Almaa. Collected specimens were taxonomically identified. Concurrently, between 2022 and 2023, a validated questionnaire was administered to confirmed CL cases and matched controls without prior CL history. The questionnaire assessed demographic data, lesion characteristics, medical history, housing conditions, animal exposure, and use of protective measures. Interviews were conducted in Arabic and English, with translation support as needed.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A total of 713 sandflies were captured, including 453 males and 260 females. Khamis Mushait showed the highest vector abundance. Two sandfly genera, <em>Phlebotomus</em> and <em>Sergentomyia</em>, were identified. Among six Phlebotomus species, <em>Ph. bergeroti</em> and <em>Ph. sergenti</em> were the most prevalent. Questionnaire analysis revealed that men and married individuals were more frequently affected. Risk factors included outdoor activity, poor housing infrastructure, and proximity to livestock and gardens. In contrast, waste areas showed no significant association, and the use of insecticides and public health awareness were correlated with reduced infection risk.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>This study highlights key environmental, entomological, and behavioral factors influencing the Asir region's cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission<em>. Ph. bergeroti</em> and <em>Ph. sergenti</em> were the most abundant species, with <em>Ph. bergeroti</em> showing potential as a permissive vector, warranting further investigation. The findings suggest the possibility of a zoonotic transmission cycle in an area traditionally considered non-zoonotic for <em>Leishmania tropica</em>, emphasizing the need for integrated control and public health strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102910"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the metagenomic assembled genome of MERS-CoV and Alpha-CoV from Camelus dromedarius in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Ahmed M. Hassan ,&nbsp;Muhammad Yasir ,&nbsp;Tagreed Al-Subhi ,&nbsp;Sayed Sartaj Sohrab ,&nbsp;Aymn T. Abbas ,&nbsp;Sherif A. El-Kafrawy ,&nbsp;Taha Kumosani ,&nbsp;Esam I. Azhar","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102908","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102908","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Dromedary camels are known carriers of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). This study aimed to identify respiratory RNA viruses circulating in the nasal cavities of camels that could potentially cause disease in humans.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Shotgun metagenomic paired-end sequencing was performed on four pools of nasal swabs collected from 40 camels originating from Sudan and Djibouti, using the MiSeq platform.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Alphacoronavirus 229E was commonly detected in the camel pools. MERS-CoV was found in both pools from Sudan and one from Djibouti. Camel parainfluenza virus 3 (PIV3) was detected in the male camel pool from Sudan. Furthermore, near-complete (99.9 %) metagenomic assembled genomes (MAGs) of alphacoronavirus 229E (SIAU MAG01) and MERS-CoV (SIAU MAG02) were retrieved from the female camel pool from Sudan. Another MAG of alphacoronavirus 229E (SIAU MAG03) was recovered from a male camel pool imported from Sudan. In the phylogenetic analysis, SIAU MAG02 clustered with MERS-CoV genome sequences retrieved from humans and camels in the Middle East. The alphacoronavirus 229E MAGs from camels formed a distinct clade separate from the human alphacoronavirus 229E lineage. SIAU MAG04 clustered with PIV3 sequences recovered from <em>Camelus dromedarius</em> in the United Arab Emirates.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Overall, respiratory viruses belonging to alpha and beta coronaviruses, notably MERS-CoV, recognized by the World Health Organization as an emerging infectious disease of critical concern, were observed in dromedary camels from African origins, potentially posing a risk of transmission to humans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102908"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-mumps parotitis associated with influenza A/H3N2: A case series from Southern Italy during the 2024–2025 influenza season","authors":"Francesca Centrone ,&nbsp;Raffaella Melilli ,&nbsp;Alfredo Marziani ,&nbsp;Valentina Annachiara Orlando ,&nbsp;Lucia Peccarisi ,&nbsp;Daniele Casulli ,&nbsp;Anna Sallustio ,&nbsp;Maria Chironna","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102907","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102907","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Parotitis, commonly associated with the mumps virus, can also result from other viral infections. We report a case series of 21 children and preadolescents presenting with mumps-like parotitis in Southern Italy between January and February 2025, all of whom had been vaccinated against mumps. In all cases, mumps virus was not detected by real-time PCR in clinical samples. Alternative etiologies were investigated by testing for a broad panel of pathogens. Viral infections were identified in 16 cases (76.2 %), with influenza A/H3N2 being the most common pathogen (14 cases, 87.5 %), followed by rhinovirus and coronavirus NL63. Of the 14 patients positive for influenza A/H3N2, 10 had received influenza vaccine. Whole genome sequencing of A/H3N2 viruses from three samples was performed, and phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene revealed that they belonged to the A/H3N2 subclade 2a.3a.1 (J.2), clustering with other regional viruses from the 2024 ̶ 2025 season. No unexpected genetic variations were found in target genes that would suggest changes in tissue tropism. Given the emergence of influenza A/H3N2 as a potential etiological agent of non-mumps parotitis, particularly during epidemic periods, enhanced surveillance and comprehensive diagnostic approaches are needed to improve understanding of the epidemiology of non-mumps parotitis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102907"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does prioritization of COVID vaccine distribution to communities with the highest COVID burden reduce health inequity?","authors":"Hae-Young Kim ,&nbsp;Anna Bershteyn ,&nbsp;Rienna Russo ,&nbsp;Jessica Mcgillen ,&nbsp;Julia Sisti ,&nbsp;Charles Ko ,&nbsp;Jaimie Shaff ,&nbsp;Remle Newton-Dame ,&nbsp;R. Scott Braithwaite","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102904","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102904","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Communities hardest-hit by early SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks accrued more immunity, but prioritizing these communities for vaccination could reduce health disparities. Optimal vaccine allocation depends on inequality aversion, i.e., willingness to trade off aggregate health benefits to increase distributional equity. We evaluated the impact of vaccine prioritization strategies on COVID-19 infections and mortality in New York City (NYC).</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered COVID-19 transmission model calibrated to NYC neighborhood-level data to compare three vaccine distribution strategies: 1) uniform across neighborhoods (<em>no prioritization</em>); 2) prioritizing hardest-hit neighborhoods (<em>exposure-based prioritization</em>); and 3) prioritizing hardest-hit neighborhoods while maintaining mitigation measures in other neighborhoods (<em>exposure-based prioritization plus mitigation</em>). The model accounted for vaccine efficacy, rollout pace, pre-vaccine immunity, and heterogeneous neighborhood exposure risk. We categorized 42 NYC neighborhoods into quintiles of cumulative COVID-19 mortality rates from March 1, 2020, until first vaccine availability (December 14, 2020). We modeled total deaths and equally-distributed-equivalent (EDE) deaths (i.e., the equally preferred number of deaths, considering equity and efficiency) across a range of inequality aversion (Atkinson’s index, ε=0–20).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Exposure-based prioritization plus mitigation was estimated to avert the most citywide COVID-19 deaths (32.5 %) relative to no vaccination, regardless of adjustment for inequality aversion. Relative to <em>no prioritization</em>, <em>exposure-based prioritization</em> was estimated to avert 45 % fewer citywide deaths but generated 2.5 % more EDE-adjusted deaths at an Atkinson index of 10. <em>Exposure-based prioritization</em> outperformed <em>no prioritization</em> at an Atkinson index of ≥ 6.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Prioritizing vaccination within the hardest-hit communities, paired with sustained mitigation efforts in communities with the greatest advantage, resulted in the greatest overall reduction in mortality and inequities. Emergency response teams should consider a community’s ability to continue non-pharmaceutical mitigation efforts when allocating limited pharmaceutical supplies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102904"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Outcomes of patients admitted to the intensive care unit with sepsis and septic shock in Saudi Arabia over 16 years","authors":"Yaseen M. Arabi ,&nbsp;Musharaf Sadat ,&nbsp;Hasan M. Al-Dorzi ,&nbsp;Hani Tamim ,&nbsp;Saad AlQahtani ,&nbsp;Haytham Tlajyeh ,&nbsp;Farhan Zayed Alenezi ,&nbsp;Tarek Dabbagh ,&nbsp;Rasha Alanazi ,&nbsp;Asma Alanazi ,&nbsp;Nabiha Tashkandi ,&nbsp;Wejdan Alrassasmah ,&nbsp;Abdulaziz Al-Dawood","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>We examined the outcomes of patients with sepsis and septic shock admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia over 16 years.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A retrospective cohort study was carried out using data collected prospectively in an ICU database. We included all patients admitted between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2017, with sepsis defined by Sepsis-3 criteria. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. In addition, adjusted logistic regression models was used to evaluate the change in hospital mortality over time.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Of 12,645 patients admitted to the ICU during the study period, 5917 patients (46.8 %) met the criteria for sepsis (median age= 65 years [interquartile range: 52, 75], median Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation Score II [APACHE II] score= 24 [interquartile range: 19, 31], 44.8 % were women and 32.3 % had septic shock). Among patients with sepsis and septic shock, chronic comorbidities were common. Between 2002 and 2017, there was a progressive decrease in APACHE II score and hospital mortality (among patients with sepsis: crude odds ratio (OR) for each 1-year increase 0.95, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.94–0.97; APACHE II-adjusted OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.95–0.98; among patients with septic shock: crude OR 0.93, 95 % CI 0.91–0.95; APACHE II-adjusted OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.94–0.98). The mortality reduction in patients with sepsis seems to have occurred in the 2010–2017 period (adjusted OR for each 1-year increase 0.88, 95 % CI 0.85–0.91 versus adjusted OR 0.99, 95 % CI 0.96–1.04 for the 2002–2009 period). A similar pattern was observed in patients with septic shock.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Patients with sepsis constituted almost half of patients admitted to the ICU. During the 16-year study period, there was a decline in hospital mortality over time among patients admitted with sepsis and septic shock, which occurred mainly from 2010 to 2017.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102911"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SARS-CoV-2, influenza, HRSV and other respiratory pathogens during the post-COVID-19 era: Epidemic circulation in Italy in the 2023/2024 season","authors":"Serena Marchi ,&nbsp;Valentina Salvestroni ,&nbsp;Bianca Maria Bocci ,&nbsp;Giovanni Guarducci ,&nbsp;Giovanna Milano ,&nbsp;Anna Carmina De Francesco ,&nbsp;Emanuele Montomoli ,&nbsp;Giovanni Bova ,&nbsp;Andrea Camarri ,&nbsp;Ilaria Manini","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study aimed at describing the epidemiological aspects of respiratory pathogens involved in cases of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Siena (Tuscany, Italy) during the 2023/2024 season.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Oropharyngeal swabs were collected from enrolled patients in the University Hospital Trust of Siena. Swabs were tested by qRT-PCR for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 and other 21 respiratory pathogens, including influenza and human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). Swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 and/or influenza were further analyzed by Next-Generation sequencing (NGS).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>From January to June 2024, 138 patients diagnosed with SARI were enrolled, with an average age of 76.7 years and a frequent presence of comorbidities. Among the patients, 40 % tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, followed by 20 % positivity for influenza and 13 % positivity for HRSV. For SARS-CoV-2, variants belonging to the JN.1, EG.5 and BA.5 lineages were found. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strains were found to belong to the 6B.1a.5a.2a clade, while for influenza A(H3N2), the strains belonged to two different clades (3 C.2a1b.2a.1a and 3 C.2a1b. 2a.2a.3a.1).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>This study contributes to the understanding of the spread of respiratory viruses and the genetic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza in patients with SARI, underlining the importance of continuous surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102905"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting mosquito-borne disease outbreaks using poisson and negative binomial models: A comparative study","authors":"Abdullah Al-Manji ,&nbsp;Adil Al Wahaibi ,&nbsp;Mohammed Al-Azri ,&nbsp;Moon Fai Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Dengue fever, a major mosquito-borne disease (MBD), continues to impose a growing global burden fueled by urbanization, climate change, and increased human mobility. Accurate predictive models are crucial for early detection and outbreak mitigation. This study aimed to develop and compare hierarchical models, with and without lagged predictors, for forecasting dengue cases in Oman.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly data from 2020 to 2024 across multiple districts. Predictors included climate variables (temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall), mosquito surveillance indicators (trap positivity, mosquito density), and population demographics. Four hierarchical Bayesian models were developed: Poisson without lag, Poisson with lag, Negative Binomial without lag, and Negative Binomial with lag. Models incorporated fixed effects and random intercepts for epidemiological week, district, governorate, year, and seasonal components. Model performance was evaluated through convergence diagnostics, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Area Under the Curve (AUC), confusion matrices, and Leave-One-Out Information Criterion (LOOIC).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>All models demonstrated excellent convergence and fit the historical weekly data (2020–2024) accurately. The Negative Binomial model with lagged variables performed best, achieving the highest AUC (0.881, 95 % CI: 0.858–0.902), the lowest LOOIC (3234.6 ± 109.4), and the smallest MSE. Mosquito trap positivity was consistently the strongest predictor, while wind speed showed a moderate positive effect and temperature showed significant delayed negative effects. Rainfall, humidity, and population size were not significant predictors. Importantly, short-term forecasts for the first weeks of 2025 closely matched the observed case counts, confirming that the models’ prediction metrics reflected both retrospective fit and real-world forecasting performance.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Incorporating delayed climatic and entomological factors using a Negative Binomial hierarchical framework significantly enhanced dengue outbreak prediction in Oman. The findings support the integration of lagged predictors and hierarchical modeling into early warning systems for mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating timely public health interventions and improved outbreak preparedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":"18 11","pages":"Article 102906"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}