Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献

{"title":"Comprehensive Evaluation of Eight Methods for Generating 1-km Monthly Composite Hourly Land Surface Temperature in 2011 Under Clear Sky","authors":"Dazhong Wang,&nbsp;Wenfeng Zhan,&nbsp;Shasha Wang,&nbsp;Frank-M. Göttsche,&nbsp;Pan Dong,&nbsp;Zihan Liu,&nbsp;Chenguang Wang,&nbsp;Sida Jiang,&nbsp;Yingying Ji,&nbsp;Lu Jiang,&nbsp;Yuyue Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD040986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD040986","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The monthly composite hourly land surface temperature (LST) under clear sky at 1-km resolution (denoted as <i>T</i>_mh) plays a critical role in various fields such as urban and agricultural managements. Existing methods for estimating <i>T</i>_mh fall into four categories: single-source methods employing spatial downscaling or diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) models and multisource methods employing spatiotemporal fusion or DTC models. Despite this methodological diversity, a comprehensive evaluation of their respective strengths and weaknesses remains lacking, posing a challenge for advancing <i>T</i>_mh estimation. To address this critical gap, we performed a wide-ranging comparison of eight representative approaches for estimating <i>T</i>_mh, comprising two from each category. Their accuracies were assessed over various timescales and conditions, utilizing <i>in situ</i> LST observations from 77 ground-based stations worldwide. Our evaluations show that DTC-based multisource approaches exhibit the highest overall accuracy, outperforming both spatial downscaling-based single-source approaches and spatiotemporal fusion-based multisource approaches. Conversely, the performance of DTC-based single-source methods exhibits substantial disparity. This observed pattern of overall accuracy remains valid across months, seasons, land cover types, and climatic zones. Furthermore, our assessments indicate that accuracies are time-of-day dependent. Spatial downscaling and spatiotemporal fusion approaches are most effective around 2 hr after sunrise, while DTC-based approaches show better performance around midday. Our findings suggest that this work holds potential significance for generating fine-resolution hourly LST data with enhanced accuracy.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Improved Surface Flux Parameterization on Simulation of Radiation Fog Formation in the Yangtze River Delta, China","authors":"Naifu Shao,&nbsp;Chunsong Lu,&nbsp;Yubin Li,&nbsp;Xingcan Jia,&nbsp;Yuan Wang,&nbsp;Yan Yin,&nbsp;Bin Zhu,&nbsp;Tianliang Zhao,&nbsp;Duanyang Liu,&nbsp;Shengjie Niu,&nbsp;Shuxian Fan,&nbsp;Shuqi Yan,&nbsp;Jingjing Lv,&nbsp;Xiaoli Qu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042345","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Meteorological conditions within the boundary layer play significant roles in radiation fog formation, which typically occur under stable conditions. The stratification conditions in the surface layer are represented by the stability parameter (<i>ζ</i>), calculated as the ratio of the reference height <i>z</i> to the Monin-Obukhov length <i>L</i> (i.e., <i>ζ</i> = <i>z</i>/<i>L</i>). Current surface layer schemes exhibit uncertainties under strong stable conditions (<i>ζ</i> &gt; 1). The Grachev2007 scheme for <i>ζ</i> &gt; 1 and the Li2014 and Li2015 schemes for calculating <i>ζ</i> are implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Two successive radiation fog events in the Yangtze River Delta are simulated to compare the improved scheme with the default scheme. Both fog events occur under high-pressure conditions characterized by clear sky and light wind during the nighttime. The results indicate that strong stable conditions dominate before fog formation, and the improved scheme improves threat scores for fog formation. Regarding surface flux, due to reduced surface thermal resistance in parameterization, increased surface heat exchange in the improved scheme enhances cooling from sensible heat flux for <i>ζ</i> &gt; 1, which is conducive to fog formation. Regarding turbulent thermal mixing, the increased surface dynamic exchange in the improved scheme enhances surface drag and reduces wind speed for <i>ζ</i> &gt; 1. This weakens the contribution of wind shear to turbulent kinetic energy, ultimately promoting fog formation. The findings of this paper are applicable to radiation fog simulations in other regions, such as plain areas covered with grassland, cropland, or other vegetation, providing support for improving fog simulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inter-Model Variability of Tropical Total Ice Water Path Simulated by the Convection Permitting DYAMOND Models","authors":"Karol Ćorko,&nbsp;Ulrike Burkhardt,&nbsp;Florian Ewald,&nbsp;Martin Köhler","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041954","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cirrus clouds have a large impact on radiation, yet coarse resolution models struggle to simulate their properties and structure realistically. Employing globally resolutions of below 5 km, the models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project do not require a parameterization for deep convection. This can be expected to lead to a better representation of cloudiness, particularly in the tropics where most of the total ice water path (TIWP) results from convection. We study the inter-model variability of TIWP simulated by the DYAMOND models during boreal summer, compare to the TIWP from a lower-resolution numerical weather prediction model and evaluate using satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. We disentangle dynamical reasons for the inter-model variability in monthly and daily mean TIWP from reasons connected with the cloud response to convective forcing. As expected, we find that differences in the models' cloud response are mainly responsible for the inter-model variability. The ratio of TIWP to TIWP plus total liquid water path (TLWP), which is controlled by convective de- and entrainment, and the models' microphysical scheme lead to a large inter-model variability in TIWP. Differences in convective dynamics also impact cloudiness with some models compensating a low TIWP in areas of low vertical ascent by an increased probability of large TIWP connected with large vertical velocities. Finally, the spatial distribution of convective events varies with models that parameterize convection simulating a larger fraction of the tropical TIWP in areas of high sea surface temperature.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041954","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Decline: Responses of Atmospheric Dynamics","authors":"Yasemin Ezber,&nbsp;Deniz Bozkurt,&nbsp;Mehmet Ilicak","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapidly changing climate in polar regions not only impacts their local environments but also influences weather patterns in tropical and mid-latitude regions. A key indicator of these changes is the accelerated decline of sea ice in polar areas. In this study, we investigated the atmospheric impacts of Antarctic sea ice reduction in response to intensified ocean surface winds. We employed the Polar-WRF model, driven by ERA5 initial and boundary conditions between 2005 and 2011. The sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions were derived from two realistic regional Southern Ocean MITgcm simulations, consisting of a control and a wind sensitivity experiment. In the latter, the zonal wind stress over the Southern Ocean is increased by a factor of 1.5, leading to a significant decrease in SIC and an increase in SST. Our Polar-WRF simulations indicate that the winter and spring seasons are marked by significant meteorological changes, including a notable increase in surface air temperature (over 2.4°C) and sea level pressure (over 2 hPa). These atmospheric changes are particularly large in the Bellingshausen Sea, adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula and the Western Pacific Ocean. The intensified advection of warm-moist air may further contribute to sea ice decline, with potential implications for increased melting of ice shelves in the Weddell and Ross Seas. The simulations illustrate that variations in wind stress could provide insights into the atmospheric-sea ice dynamics driving recent record lows in Antarctic sea ice, underscoring the importance of such modeling for understanding and predicting changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041558","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Evaluation of Hydroclimatic Variables Over Nordic Fennoscandia Using WRF-CTSM","authors":"Iris Mužić,&nbsp;Øivind Hodnebrog,&nbsp;Yeliz A. Yilmaz,&nbsp;Terje K. Berntsen,&nbsp;David M. Lawrence,&nbsp;Negin Sobhani","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043103","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study is the first to evaluate the state-of-the-art coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model WRF-CTSM. It comprises the Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF, and the Community Terrestrial Systems Model, CTSM (using a configuration that is the same as the Community Land Model Version 5, CLM5). The evaluation is conducted over Nordic Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland) since there is uncertainty in climate models' representation of key hydroclimatic variables in high-latitude regions as they experience accelerated transformation in a changing climate. A 13-year WRF-CTSM simulation (2010–2022) is performed using a 10.5 km horizontal grid spacing to assess the model biases in simulating mean, minimum, and maximum 2 m temperature, precipitation, snow cover (snow depth, snow water equivalent, fractional snow-covered duration), and surface energy balance components. The analysis is based on annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily mean comparisons against openly available observational data sets, comprising regional scale gridded station-based and satellite-based data sets, as well as point scale observations from ground stations. The model shows robust agreement with the evaluation data sets across all considered variables. Furthermore, in situ scale conditions in 2 m temperature, precipitation, snow cover variables, and latent heat are captured with considerable precision. WRF-CTSM is thus considered a powerful research tool for the assessment of land-atmosphere interactions over Nordic Fennoscandia.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD043103","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the Unexploited Potential of Dual-Polarization Radar in Rainfall Kinetic Energy Prediction","authors":"Qiqi Yang,&nbsp;Lin Zhang,&nbsp;Shuliang Zhang,&nbsp;Yule Zhang,&nbsp;Yuhan Jin","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043225","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately predicting rainfall kinetic energy (RKE) is critical for assessing soil erosion and mitigating related environmental hazards. Traditional methods rely on rainfall intensity (<i>R</i>) as a proxy, oversimplifying the complex microphysical processes of raindrop formation. In contrast, our study introduces a physically based framework that leverages dual-polarization radar (DPR) variables—capturing key raindrop properties—to enhance RKE prediction through methods ranging from statistical regression to advanced machine learning. Statistical regression models with DPR variables show superior accuracy over traditional <i>R</i>-based methods in RKE prediction. Meanwhile, machine learning models, developed through four algorithms to create 12 advanced models, surpass linear DPR models by better handling extreme conditions. Among these, the Local Cascade Ensemble model utilizing DPR variables and simple environmental conditions (LCE-DPRS) stands out for its balance of effectiveness and ease of use, making it the recommended approach for RKE estimation. Specifically, this model achieves reductions exceeding 70% in both root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error compared to traditional rainfall <i>R</i>-based methods. Additionally, 1 month of X-band dual-polarization radar observations was validated using in situ raindrop size distributions measured by disdrometers. The LCE-DPRS model demonstrated effective high-resolution, real-time spatiotemporal predictions, significantly reducing errors during intense rainfall events. This study establishes a new benchmark for leveraging radar technology in hydrological forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Networks in China From 2013 to 2022: Implications for Exposure Assessment","authors":"Heming Bai,&nbsp;Wenkang Gao,&nbsp;Dasa Gu,&nbsp;Muhammad Jawad Hussain,&nbsp;Shuai Wang,&nbsp;Fanhua Kong,&nbsp;Yang Cao","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043027","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The spatial representativeness (SR) of air quality monitoring sites is critical for ensuring that gathered data accurately reflect the broader area's air quality. Evaluating the SR of sites at a national scale and its long-term trends is particularly important for countries like China, where both air quality and monitoring networks have changed dramatically over time. Here, we used 1-km daily air pollutant concentrations from the China High Air Pollutants dataset to assess the yearly SR of state-controlled sites in China from 2013 to 2022 for multiple pollutants. With the number of sites increasing from 460 in 2013 to 1,590 in 2022, our results showed that the total SR area of sites increased by 89% for PM_2.5, 149% for PM₁₀, and 2,190% for O₃. While the number of sites mainly drove these increases, its impact varied at different phases. Interestingly, the rise in sites from 2020 to 2022 actually led to a decrease in the total SR area for PM_2.5 (−18,300 km²) and PM₁₀ (−14,200 km²). Additionally, we found that applying SR to pollution exposure assessments did not improve their accuracy at national and city levels when compared to the official method, which involves exposure calculation using arithmetic mean aggregation of monitoring sites. This was related to poor SR performance, with more than half of the population being uncovered by SR areas in more than 85% of Chinese cities. Nevertheless, we demonstrated the benefits of applying SR for city-level air quality attainment.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deriving Non-Methane Hydrocarbon Emissions and Improving Source Apportionment by the Boundary Layer Mass Balance Technique","authors":"Jiale Fan,&nbsp;Ziwei Mo,&nbsp;Bin Yuan,&nbsp;Shan Huang,&nbsp;Min Shao,&nbsp;Jipeng Qi,&nbsp;Baolin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041721","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although high-resolution emission inventory (EI) has been compiled, there are still large uncertainties. This study employs a boundary layer mass balance (MB) method (also known as the hypothetical box model) to calculate the nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) emission fluxes based on the ground surface and tower measurements between September and November 2018 in the urban core of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China. The MB method estimated the propane, toluene, n-butane, m,p-xylene, and i-butane as the major species, which are in reasonable agreement with the estimates by mixed layer gradient technique. The physical dispersion term explained over 80% of the emission flux variations for most species while the chemical loss term took up nearly 60% for the highly reactive species (e.g., isoprene and styrene). Higher emission fluxes were identified during daytime than nighttime, well reflecting the daily activities. The flux-based positive matrix factorization (FLU-PMF) and traditional concentration-based apportionment both revealed that vehicular emissions and oil and gas evaporation were the dominant sources of NMHC emissions. FLU-PMF attributed a higher contribution to biogenic emissions and a reduced contribution to fuel combustion by accounting for chemical loss and atmospheric dilution. Higher NMHC emission flux was found by MB estimates than EI grids near the measurement sites. It was suggested that EI underestimated the emission fluxes due to missing information for the residential fugitive emissions, while industrial contributions were overestimated. The findings provide useful information for policy-makers and government to better constrain volatile organic compound emissions and improving the source apportionment in urban areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143892942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationship Between X-Rays and the Propagation Speed of Downward Negative Leaders in Rocket-Triggered Lightning","authors":"Yuan Wang,&nbsp;Baofeng Cao,&nbsp;Yanfeng Fan,&nbsp;Xiaoqiang Li,&nbsp;Yang Zhang,&nbsp;Xiao Li,&nbsp;Zongxiang Li,&nbsp;Yongli Wei,&nbsp;Lihua Wang,&nbsp;Gaopeng Lu,&nbsp;Peng Li,&nbsp;Xiong Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042818","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On 18 July 2023, X-ray emissions associated with two rocket-triggered lightning flashes were observed at the Field Experiment Base for Lightning Sciences, China Meteorological Administration. In this paper, the relationship between X-ray characteristics and propagation speed of downward negative dart leaders is analyzed for the first time. Results show that within the same lightning flash, there is a strong positive correlation between the leader brightness and its 2D speed, as evidenced by a high correlation coefficient, <i>R</i>, of +0.94. Consistently, the intensity of X-rays generally exhibits a positive correlation with the leader 2D speed. Conversely, the average X-ray pulse interval is negatively correlated with the leader 2D speed, with a significant correlation coefficient, <i>R</i>, of −0.93. Furthermore, the intervals of partial steps of dart leader can be characterized by the intervals between the X-ray pulses.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Saturation in Forcing Efficiency and Temperature Response of Large Volcanic Eruptions","authors":"Eirik Rolland Enger,&nbsp;Rune Graversen,&nbsp;Audun Theodorsen","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041098","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Volcanic eruptions cause climate cooling due to the reflection of solar radiation by emitted and subsequently produced aerosols. The climate effect of an eruption may last for about a decade and is nonlinearly tied to the amount of injected &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;SO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{SO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; from the eruption. We investigate the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, ranging from Mt. Pinatubo-sized events to supereruptions. The study is based on ensemble simulations in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) climate model applying the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6) atmosphere model, using a coupled ocean and fixed sea surface temperature setting. Our analysis focuses on the impact of different levels of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;SO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{SO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; injections on stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), effective radiative forcing (ERF), and global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomalies. We uncover a notable time-dependent decrease in aerosol forcing efficiency (ERF normalized by SAOD) for all eruption &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;SO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{SO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; levels during the first posteruption year. In addition, it is revealed that the largest eruptions investigated in this study, including several previous supereruption simulations, provide peak ERF anomalies bounded at &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;65&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;W&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;m&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${-}65,mathrm{W},{mathrm{m}}^{-2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;. Further, a close linear relationship between peak GMST and ERF effectively bounds the GMST anomaly to, at most, approximately &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;K&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}