Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献

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Individual and Combined Impacts of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and ENSO on Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic-Scale Disturbance Intensity 北方夏季季内振荡和ENSO对热带西北太平洋天气尺度扰动强度的个别和联合影响
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD047244
Qinlu Gu, Renguang Wu
{"title":"Individual and Combined Impacts of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and ENSO on Tropical Western North Pacific Synoptic-Scale Disturbance Intensity","authors":"Qinlu Gu,&nbsp;Renguang Wu","doi":"10.1029/2026JD047244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD047244","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs) over tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) are subjected to impacts of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study investigates individual and combined impacts of BSISO and ENSO on the SSD intensity over TWNP. It is found that the impact of the BSISO wet phase on the SSD intensity is pronouncedly different in El Niño and La Niña years, whereas the SSD intensity in the BSISO dry phase is relatively less sensitive to ENSO. El Niño and La Niña induce different SSD intensity changes in the BSISO wet phase. El Niño leads to an increase and eastward shift of large SSD intensity. This is attributed to the increase and eastward shift of cyclonic lower-level wind fields and consequently the barotropic energy conversion from background lower-level wind fields to SSDs. La Niña leads to an increase and northward shift of large SSD intensity. This results from a shift of cyclonic lower-level wind fields and associated barotropic energy conversion from background lower-level wind fields to SSDs to northwestern TWNP. In the BSISO dry phase, the background lower-level wind fields are anticyclonic and the ENSO effects are small due to unfavorable background field. This accounts for the relatively small ENSO effect on the SSD intensity in the BSISO dry phase.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Longwave Scattering Effects on Radiative Kernels 辐射核的长波散射效应
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD046597
Han Huang, Yi Huang, Jason N. S. Cole, Jiangnan Li
{"title":"Longwave Scattering Effects on Radiative Kernels","authors":"Han Huang,&nbsp;Yi Huang,&nbsp;Jason N. S. Cole,&nbsp;Jiangnan Li","doi":"10.1029/2026JD046597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046597","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Longwave (LW) scattering, the redirection of infrared radiation by cloud and aerosol particles, is often neglected in current global climate models (GCMs). However, studies have suggested that LW scattering can influence the Earth's energy budget and climate sensitivity, indicating a need to improve the representation and understanding of this radiative effect. In addition to mean radiative fluxes, LW scattering can also change radiative sensitivities as quantified by radiative kernels. This aspect of the LW scattering effect, especially on the radiative sensitivity of non-cloud variables, has remained largely unexplored. In this study, we use the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM) which accounts for LW scattering to investigate how it affects broadband and spectral flux radiative kernels and subsequently biases kernel-diagnosed climate feedbacks. Our results show that LW scattering generally weakens the non-cloud kernels, reducing the sensitivity of TOA and surface radiative fluxes to non-cloud feedback variables, with the reduction being stronger at the TOA than at the surface. The largest impact occurs in the water vapor TOA kernel, especially in the far-infrared region. Consistent with these radiative kernel changes, non-cloud radiative feedbacks diagnosed using radiative kernels are weaker when LW scattering is included. On the other hand, the cloud feedback is enhanced, corroborating earlier findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026JD046597","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shipborne Measurements of Mineral Dust and Black Carbon Aerosols Over the Southern Ocean in the Austral Summer 南方夏季南大洋上矿物尘埃和黑碳气溶胶的船载测量
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD046729
A. Yoshida, Y. Tobo, H. Kobayashi, K. Adachi, N. Moteki, J. Inoue
{"title":"Shipborne Measurements of Mineral Dust and Black Carbon Aerosols Over the Southern Ocean in the Austral Summer","authors":"A. Yoshida,&nbsp;Y. Tobo,&nbsp;H. Kobayashi,&nbsp;K. Adachi,&nbsp;N. Moteki,&nbsp;J. Inoue","doi":"10.1029/2026JD046729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046729","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric mineral dust and black carbon (BC) aerosols play important roles in the Earth's climate system, yet direct observations over the Southern Ocean (SO) are scarce. In this study, we present the characteristics of airborne water-insoluble particles (WIPs) collected during a cruise of the R/V <i>Shirase</i> in the Australian and Indian sectors of the SO from December 2022 to March 2023. Using a complex amplitude sensor, we measured complex scattering amplitude of individual WIPs to classify into dust-like (0.50–2.5 μm in diameter) and BC-like (0.15–0.50 μm in diameter) particles. The mass concentrations of dust-like and BC-like aerosols were 0.0–6.4 ng m<sup>−3</sup> and 0.079–3.8 ng m<sup>−3</sup>, respectively. The highest concentrations of both were observed when the R/V <i>Shirase</i> was located in a mid-latitude region closest to Australia, indicating strong influence of the emission from mid-latitude sources. The lowest concentration of BC-like aerosols was observed in a sample collected when the ship was near the Antarctic coast and the air mass would be rarely influenced by mid-latitude emissions. However, the dust-like aerosol concentration in the same sample was relatively higher than that collected in the most remote offshore region away from both mid-latitude and Antarctic continents, suggesting a potential source of dust aerosols. Despite a case study based on a limited number of samples, this study fills an observational gap by providing quantitative data of mineral dust and BC aerosols over the SO, providing new insights into their sources and climate effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026JD046729","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aqueous-Phase Processing of Organic Aerosols at the Southern Great Plains: Insights From Integrated Chemical and Microphysical Analyses 南部大平原有机气溶胶的水相处理:来自综合化学和微物理分析的见解
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD047287
J. Trousdell, W. Jiang, J. Shilling, M. Shrivastava, J. D. Fast, Qi Zhang
{"title":"Aqueous-Phase Processing of Organic Aerosols at the Southern Great Plains: Insights From Integrated Chemical and Microphysical Analyses","authors":"J. Trousdell,&nbsp;W. Jiang,&nbsp;J. Shilling,&nbsp;M. Shrivastava,&nbsp;J. D. Fast,&nbsp;Qi Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2026JD047287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD047287","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Aqueous-phase reactions are hypothesized to be a major pathway for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in humid, cloud-influenced environments, yet direct observational constraints remain limited. Here we investigated aqueous SOA (aqSOA) formation and evolution during the spring 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign at the U.S. Department of Energy Southern Great Plains (SGP) site using high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) measurements integrated with particle size distribution and meteorological observations. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) of HR-AMS spectra resolved eight organic aerosol (OA) factors, including biomass burning OA (BBOA) factors with varying levels of oxidation, biogenic SOA (BSOArr), sulfate-associated oxygenated OA (SOOA), nitrate-associated oxygenated OA (NOOA), aged primary, anthropogenic OA, and nitrogen-enriched OA. Four high RH periods associated with cloud presence and stable air masses were identified as favorable for aqueous processing, three of which were cloud- or humid-boundary-layer events with similar chemical evolution. During these events, SOOA, BSOA, and the most aged BBOA factor (BBOA3) collectively contributed 79% of OA mass (vs. 64% outside these events), with BSOA exhibiting the largest fractional increase. Growth-rate analysis revealed size-dependent particle growth consistent with volume-controlled aqueous reactions. Correlations of aqSOA tracer ions (CHO<sup>+</sup>, CHO<sub>2</sub><sup>+</sup>, CH<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub><sup>+</sup>, and C<sub>2</sub>H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub><sup>+</sup>) with BBOA3 and BSOA, and CH<sub>3</sub>SO<sub>2</sub><sup>+</sup> with SOOA, further support aqSOA formation. These findings provide direct field evidence that aqueous-phase chemistry significantly influences aerosol composition and evolution at SGP and demonstrate an integrated chemical-microphysical framework for diagnosing aqSOA processing in ambient AMS data sets.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026JD047287","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Structure and Lifecycle Variability of Compound Dry-Hot and Heavy Rainfall Events Over the North China Plain 华北平原干热强降水复合事件的空间结构与生命周期变异
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD047649
Xiaohu Zhao, Chuyin Tian
{"title":"Spatial Structure and Lifecycle Variability of Compound Dry-Hot and Heavy Rainfall Events Over the North China Plain","authors":"Xiaohu Zhao,&nbsp;Chuyin Tian","doi":"10.1029/2026JD047649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD047649","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spatially compound dry-hot and heavy rainfall events expose neighboring areas to simultaneous water and heat hazards, but regional averages obscure how their components are arranged and evolve. This limits identification of recurrent event structures and the conditions associated with them. We developed an object-based framework to detect and track paired dry-hot and heavy rainfall patches over the North China Plain during May–October 1979–2025. Displacement-based criteria classified spatial arrangement, whereas <i>K</i>-means summarized lifecycle and geometry descriptors into organization regimes. Among 182 events, 121 (66.5%) were meridional dipoles, including 103 wet-north/dry-south cases. The organization analysis identified 87 pulse-active and 95 persistent-migratory events. Persistent-migratory events lasted longer, migrated farther, and maintained stronger 850 hPa meridional moisture transport after onset (<i>q</i> adjusted for the false discovery rate = 0.011). Independent gridded products reproduced anomalies averaged over the domain (<i>r</i> = 0.695–0.953), although patch outlines agreed less closely. Temporally blocked antecedent models discriminated organization regime only weakly (balanced accuracy 0.542; Brier skill −0.407). Under fixed 1979–2010 thresholds, event frequency increased by 133.3% from 1979 to 2001 to 2002–2025. The catalog therefore reveals recurrent spatial and lifecycle structures, but event structure carries only a weak transferable antecedent signal. Its rising frequency broadens the range of configurations that regional risk management must accommodate.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Machine Learning Framework for Objective Definition and Projection of Meteorological Seasons: An Application to the Indian Subcontinent 气象季节客观定义和预测的机器学习框架:在印度次大陆的应用
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD045869
Jacopo Grassi, Elisa Palazzi, Jost von Hardenberg, Paolo Davini
{"title":"A Machine Learning Framework for Objective Definition and Projection of Meteorological Seasons: An Application to the Indian Subcontinent","authors":"Jacopo Grassi,&nbsp;Elisa Palazzi,&nbsp;Jost von Hardenberg,&nbsp;Paolo Davini","doi":"10.1029/2025JD045869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045869","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Meteorological seasons are typically defined through fixed calendar intervals or region-specific thresholds, yet such approaches fail to capture the actual variability of the annual cycle. Here we present a machine learning framework that objectively detects meteorological seasons and projects their future evolution. The method combines Radially Constrained Clustering (RCC) to identify seasons from reanalysis data with a supervised Multinomial Logistic Regression Classifier (MLRC) that allows these definitions to be applied also to climate model projections. We use the Indian subcontinent as a detailed proof of concept region since it has established operational references for monsoon onset and withdrawal, and it includes contrasting seasonal regimes, from monsoon dominated lowlands to high mountain regions influenced by winter disturbances. The RCC-derived seasons recover the main operational seasonal phases adopted by the India Meteorological Department, while also providing consistent definitions of transition periods. Evaluation against a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble shows that models capture the seasonal cycle with high skill in Central and Southern India, but exhibit lower performance in complex mountainous regions. Future projections indicate a robust lengthening of the monsoon season, primarily due to delayed withdrawal, and a concurrent shortening of winter, driven by the loss of days in December–January. These findings highlight the asymmetric nature of seasonal shifts under global warming and demonstrate the potential of data-driven approaches to provide objective and reproducible definitions of seasonality.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD045869","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stratospheric Aerosol From Above: Laser-Ablation Mass Spectrometer Samples Polar Vortex Air for the First Time 平流层气溶胶:激光烧蚀质谱仪首次取样极地涡旋空气
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD045615
G. W. Mann, R. Weigel, C. G. Bardeen, L. R. Marshall, C. V. Brodowsky, M. Norgren, O. B. Toon
{"title":"Stratospheric Aerosol From Above: Laser-Ablation Mass Spectrometer Samples Polar Vortex Air for the First Time","authors":"G. W. Mann,&nbsp;R. Weigel,&nbsp;C. G. Bardeen,&nbsp;L. R. Marshall,&nbsp;C. V. Brodowsky,&nbsp;M. Norgren,&nbsp;O. B. Toon","doi":"10.1029/2025JD045615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045615","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The JGR paper by Lawler et al. (2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043530) marks a significant and historic first, the PALMS single-particle chemical analysis sampling deep stratospheric Arctic vortex air for the first time. The analysis finds ∼90% of sulfate aerosol particles in the deepest stratosphere air (100–130 ppb N<sub>2</sub>O) are meteoric-sulfuric particles, their composition spectra having metal cation peaks strongly indicative of meteoric origin (see Figure 2 of Lawler et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043530). Within this commentary article we note how the research aligns with findings from recent European high-altitude aircraft field campaigns, measuring higher abundance refractory aerosol in similar deep Arctic vortex air (Curtius et al., 2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-3053-2005; Weigel et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12319-2014). The findings also resonate historically, with SABRE-2023 being 60 years after impactors on U-2 high-altitude aircraft from Australia found sub-micron insoluble inclusions were present extensively within stratospheric sulfate aerosol (Bigg, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1945-5100.2012.01346.x; Mossop, 1963, https://doi.org/10.1038/199325a0; Mossop, 1965, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(65)90017-7). We also summarize key related stratospheric aerosol model studies, from early conceptual and 1D stratospheric aerosol models through to today's generation of 3D interactive stratospheric aerosol composition-climate models. Recent modeling is presented indicating that resolving meteoric smoke has a substantial thinning effect on the simulated background stratospheric aerosol layer, making sulfate particles smaller, and reducing global stratospheric mass burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD045615","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Physics-Informed Two-Stage Retrieval Method for EMIT Remote Sensing Methane Plumes 一种基于物理信息的EMIT遥感甲烷羽流两阶段检索方法
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD047122
Yong Wan, Yu Liu, Qian Xiao, Shaokun Xu
{"title":"A Physics-Informed Two-Stage Retrieval Method for EMIT Remote Sensing Methane Plumes","authors":"Yong Wan,&nbsp;Yu Liu,&nbsp;Qian Xiao,&nbsp;Shaokun Xu","doi":"10.1029/2026JD047122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD047122","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hyperspectral satellite missions, particularly EMIT, have revolutionized methane point source monitoring. However, current operational retrieval pipelines typically rely on physically-based matched filters followed by labor-intensive manual verification to mitigate high false alarm rates caused by complex background interference. This dependence on human intervention restricts the scalability and efficiency required for rapid, automated global monitoring. To address these limitations, this paper proposes Plume-Net, a novel Physics-Informed Guided Two-Stage Retrieval Method. Unlike conventional approaches, Plume-Net decouples the task into a “global existence classification” stage and a “local pixel-level regression” stage to maximize reliability without human-in-the-loop. The core innovation lies in the integration of physical priors with deep learning: In the first stage, a Physics-Informed Spectral Gating (PISG) module explicitly injects methane spectral absorption knowledge into the network, dynamically recalibrating channel weights to suppress background noise. In the second stage, to overcome the difficulties of regressing sparse, long-tail plume distributions, we propose a Plume-Focused Sampling Strategy and an Intensity-Aware Pixel-Level Weighted Loss function, forcing the network to prioritize rare but critical high-concentration signals. Evaluated on real-world EMIT observations, Plume-Net achieves an ROC-AUC of 0.961 in detection and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 33.33 ppm·m in quantification. By significantly reducing false positives while maintaining high precision, this method offers a robust, fully automated alternative to current semi-manual retrieval workflows.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of Precipitation and Soil Moisture in CFSv2 Near Gulf Coast Tropical Cyclone Landfall Locations 墨西哥湾沿岸热带气旋登陆点附近CFSv2降水和土壤湿度的分季节预报
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD046700
Wei-Ching Hsu, Gabriel J. Kooperman, J. Marshall Shepherd, Kevin A. Reed
{"title":"Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of Precipitation and Soil Moisture in CFSv2 Near Gulf Coast Tropical Cyclone Landfall Locations","authors":"Wei-Ching Hsu,&nbsp;Gabriel J. Kooperman,&nbsp;J. Marshall Shepherd,&nbsp;Kevin A. Reed","doi":"10.1029/2026JD046700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046700","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) produce intense winds, heavy precipitation, and damaging storm surges along the Gulf and East coast of the U.S. There is growing evidence that high antecedent soil moisture (SM) conditions preceding landfall can maintain or even intensify TCs over land, sustaining strong winds and precipitation further inland. In this study, we investigate the ability of the 9-month Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast to represent near surface SM at forecast lead times (LTs) from hours to weeks over the Gulf coast TC landfalling region. Our results show that the decrease in the predictability of SM and associated precipitation with LTs not only appears at relatively short timescales (e.g., weekly or shorter events), but also evident in the interannual variability and long term (7-year) mean climatology. Moreover, the spatial biases increase with the LT at about one to 2 weeks and act to damp the spatial variability. Nevertheless, even at shorter LTs (i.e., hours to days), the forecasted precipitation fails to capture the more intense events, which contributes to biases in the SM at all LTs. Our results assess the relationship between the predictability of the SM and the related precipitation with LTs. The results suggest that CFSv2 is unlikely to capture the influence of antecedent SM variability associated with preceding convective events on subsequent events (e.g., evaluation of TCs after landfall) on LTs longer than a week, which has implications for overall subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026JD046700","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inter-Comparison of Snow Depth Over Antarctic Sea Ice From Ocean Reanalyzes and Observations 来自海洋再分析和观测的南极海冰雪深的相互比较
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1029/2026JD046705
Haofei Wang, Yafei Nie, Bin Cheng, Petteri Uotila, Hao Luo, Rui Xu, Qinghua Yang
{"title":"Inter-Comparison of Snow Depth Over Antarctic Sea Ice From Ocean Reanalyzes and Observations","authors":"Haofei Wang,&nbsp;Yafei Nie,&nbsp;Bin Cheng,&nbsp;Petteri Uotila,&nbsp;Hao Luo,&nbsp;Rui Xu,&nbsp;Qinghua Yang","doi":"10.1029/2026JD046705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046705","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Snow depth on Antarctic sea ice is a critical climate variable affecting energy and mass balance, yet its observation and modeling remain challenging. We present a systematic intercomparison of snow depth from six ocean reanalysis products, two satellite retrievals, and ship-based and airborne observational constraints. Results indicate that reanalysis and satellite products show consistent large-scale climatological snow depth patterns, with the highest depths in the Weddell Sea. However, substantial differences remain in magnitude, seasonal phasing, spatial variability, and trends. The multi-model mean agrees with satellite-derived products in some integrated metrics, but tends to smooth regional features and may reflect compensation among reanalysis members. The sensitivity of simulated snow depth to atmospheric forcing and simplified snow processes highlights current limitations in representing wind redistribution and snow-to-ice conversion. Improved observations and model physics are needed to better constrain Antarctic sea-ice snow depth.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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