Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献_第2页

Sources, Sinks, and Oxidation Pathways of Phenolic Compounds in South Korea Constrained Using KORUS-AQ Airborne Observations 使用KORUS-AQ机载观测限制韩国酚类化合物的来源、汇和氧化途径

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD043110

Stephen M. MacFarlane, Jenny A. Fisher, Lu Xu, Paul O. Wennberg, John D. Crounse, Katherine Ball, Shixian Zhai, Kelvin H. Bates, Younha Kim, Qiang Zhang, Donald R. Blake

{"title":"Sources, Sinks, and Oxidation Pathways of Phenolic Compounds in South Korea Constrained Using KORUS-AQ Airborne Observations","authors":"Stephen M. MacFarlane, Jenny A. Fisher, Lu Xu, Paul O. Wennberg, John D. Crounse, Katherine Ball, Shixian Zhai, Kelvin H. Bates, Younha Kim, Qiang Zhang, Donald R. Blake","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043110","url":null,"abstract":"Aromatics are an important class of volatile organic compounds with impacts on human health. The impacts of aromatics and their oxidation products vary. While the chemistry and major pathways of the precursor aromatics are relatively well understood, the same is not true for their phenolic oxidation products. Here, we use new observations of aromatic oxidation products collected during the Korea-United States Air Quality aircraft campaign to evaluate the aromatic chemical mechanism in the GEOS-Chem v13.4.0 chemical transport model. Based on these results, we implement changes to emissions, add ethylbenzene chemistry, and introduce phenol production from ethylbenzene and toluene oxidation. These changes improve simulation of benzene (reducing normalized mean bias from 24% to −9%) and phenol (−71% to −42%). Model biases increase for toluene, xylene, and cresol, but simulated mixing ratios remain within measurement uncertainties and observed interquartile ranges. We identify potential toluene emission overestimates from petrochemical complexes in Ulsan and Daesan and underestimates from the Daegu dyeing industrial complex, and underestimates of benzene emissions from China. Using the updated model, we find benzene and toluene contribute equally to phenol production in the boundary layer (accounting for 40% of phenol production each), and that toluene and ethylbenzene are atmospherically relevant precursors of phenol. Phenol and cresol loss is found to be dominated by OH oxidation (73% for both phenol and cresol). We find that benzaldehyde is the dominant source of nitrophenol production (67%), although phenol dominates nitrophenol production at night.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD043110","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Energy and Clean Air Policies Will Overcome the Adverse Effect of Climate Change and Reduce China's Ozone Pollution in the Future: The Insight From a New Two-Stage Model 能源和清洁空气政策将在未来克服气候变化的不利影响并减少中国的臭氧污染：一个新的两阶段模型的见解

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD043182

Yutong Wang, Yu Zhao

{"title":"Energy and Clean Air Policies Will Overcome the Adverse Effect of Climate Change and Reduce China's Ozone Pollution in the Future: The Insight From a New Two-Stage Model","authors":"Yutong Wang, Yu Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043182","url":null,"abstract":"Near-surface ozone pollution is one of the biggest challenges for Chinese air quality improvement, whereas its future spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors have not been fully investigated. Here, we developed a two-stage model combining a machine learning technique (XGBoost) and a chemical transport model (WRF-CMAQ) to assess the ozone change till 2060 in China under three scenarios with various trajectories of climate change, energy transition, and pollution controls. The new model effectively corrected overestimation and underestimation of ozone levels by WRF-CMAQ and global climate models, respectively. Anthropogenic efforts will overcome the adverse effect of climate and reduce future ozone concentration especially in eastern China and warm season with greater ozone pollution. From a long-term perspective, energy structure transition was estimated to play a more important role than end-of-pipe emission controls with a former to latter ratio of ozone reduction during 2017–2060 at 2.7. With observational information incorporated, our model was demonstrated to better capture the ozone response to precursor emission change than WRF-CMAQ and corrected the underestimation of ozone reduction for developed urban areas.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of the East Asian Stratospheric Intrusion on Lower Tropospheric Ozone in the Yangtze River Delta 东亚平流层入侵对长江三角洲对流层下层臭氧的影响

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042349

Jinpeng Lu, Xin Huang, Xueyu Zhou, Lijie Yang, Sijia Lou, Zilin Wang, Jiawei Xu, Aijun Ding

{"title":"Impact of the East Asian Stratospheric Intrusion on Lower Tropospheric Ozone in the Yangtze River Delta","authors":"Jinpeng Lu, Xin Huang, Xueyu Zhou, Lijie Yang, Sijia Lou, Zilin Wang, Jiawei Xu, Aijun Ding","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042349","url":null,"abstract":"Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution has aroused increasing attention in past decades, especially in China, with escalating near-surface O3 levels. Apart from photochemical reactions, stratospheric intrusion (SI) also contributes to tropospheric O3 pollution. In this study, a strong SI event that greatly influenced the near-surface O3 pollution was identified in May 2023. To quantitatively analyze the contribution to surface O3 over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), meteorological reanalysis data, in situ observations, and a regional meteorology-chemistry coupled model were integrated. Our findings reveal that the severe O3 pollution observed over the YRD region cannot be solely attributed to photochemical processes. Noteworthily, a distinct signal of stratospheric air masses injecting into the troposphere was observed, indicating a more complex interplay between atmospheric chemical and physical processes. The clustering analysis of the backward trajectories shows that the O3-rich air masses injected into the lower troposphere are primarily driven by westerly jets and downwelling behind the troughs accompanying the low-pressure weather system at 46°N–60°N. The stratospheric O3-rich air masses can be transported to the YRD region driven by the strong downwelling occurring with a high-altitude wind field toward the south. Using the regional meteorology-chemistry model Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with real-time input of the upper chemical boundary conditions, it is estimated that such regionally transported SI O3 contributed more than 12 ppb to surface O3 pollution over the YRD region.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Radiation Power Density of a Natural Ball Lightning Estimated by Its Spectra 用光谱估计天然球状闪电的辐射功率密度

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043587

Ping Yuan, Tingting An, Jianyong Cen, Rubin Jiang, Shengxin Huang, Zhengshi Chang, Hong Deng, Ruibin Wan, Guorong Liu, Xuejuan Wang

{"title":"The Radiation Power Density of a Natural Ball Lightning Estimated by Its Spectra","authors":"Ping Yuan, Tingting An, Jianyong Cen, Rubin Jiang, Shengxin Huang, Zhengshi Chang, Hong Deng, Ruibin Wan, Guorong Liu, Xuejuan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043587","url":null,"abstract":"The energy and its source of ball lightning (BL) have long been a mystery. At present, there is no consensus on the energy source of BL. The radiation power density and its evolution of a BL are investigated based on its spectra for the first time. The results show that the radiation power density calculated by O I spectral lines is the highest, and its average value is about 37.40 × 107 W/m2. The average radiation power densities calculated by Si I and Fe I spectral lines are only around 3.04 × 107 W/m2 and 2.56 × 107 W/m2, which remained basically steady during the stable luminescence stage. The spectral and energy feature indicated that the BL maybe exist a core with higher energy. The radiation power density shows a periodic pulse feature in the energy core and maintains basically stable in the bright periphery with lower energy. The highest energy of this BL can only excite light radiation of the near infrared band from the O I atoms in the air. The BL moved toward the nearby power line. Deduced from the energy distribution and moving direction that this BL should be associated with small gap intermittent discharge at the bottom of previous cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning channel, meanwhile, the strong atmospheric electric field during thunderstorm and its distribution should be a potential outside source that drives the discharge and moving direction of this BL. This work has important reference significance to reveal the mystery of BL and the application of BL phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Divergent Risks of Dry and Wet Heat Waves Across China: Historical Trends and Future Projections 中国干湿热浪的不同风险：历史趋势和未来预测

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043935

Shanjun Cheng, Shanshan Wang, Jinqing Zuo, Yongli He, Yanting Zhang

{"title":"Divergent Risks of Dry and Wet Heat Waves Across China: Historical Trends and Future Projections","authors":"Shanjun Cheng, Shanshan Wang, Jinqing Zuo, Yongli He, Yanting Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043935","url":null,"abstract":"Heat waves have been intensifying with climate change, presenting a growing risk to human health and ecosystems. However, the differential impacts of dry versus wet heat waves and their future trajectories remain underexplored. Here, we introduce a data-driven approach to classify heat waves by relative humidity, revealing dry heat waves predominantly affect China's arid northwest, while wet heat waves are more prevalent in its humid south. These events' frequency and persistence have increased substantially over recent decades. Under a high socioeconomic scenario, the intensified dry and wet heat waves will continue expanding, with increases of approximately 141% ± 48% and 224% ± 59% by the 21st century's end. Population exposure to wet heat waves is projected to increase by about 100% ± 36%, nearly doubling that of dry heat waves, with North China facing the highest risks. By then, an estimated 10% and 40% of China's population will face exposure to dangerous dry and wet heat waves. Adopting a moderate socioeconomic development pathway could substantially mitigate these risks. Our findings indicate that climate change is reshaping these heat wave threats, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies to address these evolving challenges.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital Holographic Microscopy and Machine Learning for Quantitative 3D Analysis and Automatic Classification of Volcanic Ash Particles 用于定量三维分析和火山灰颗粒自动分类的数字全息显微镜和机器学习

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD043283

A. C. Monaldi, J. I. Díaz, M. F. Martínez, N. Budini, W. A. Báez

{"title":"Digital Holographic Microscopy and Machine Learning for Quantitative 3D Analysis and Automatic Classification of Volcanic Ash Particles","authors":"A. C. Monaldi, J. I. Díaz, M. F. Martínez, N. Budini, W. A. Báez","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043283","url":null,"abstract":"Determining the shapes, sizes and optical properties of volcanic ash presents a significant challenge in volcanology, the aviation industry and atmospheric models involving transport and dispersion of particles. Eruptive dynamics, including fragmentation mechanisms, magma viscosity and particle transport processes, among others, are encoded in the intricate shapes and sizes of these particles. Traditionally, the analysis of ash particles' morphology has relied on quantitative non-dimensional parameters, primarily derived from their 2D silhouette projected area, using conventional microscopy or particle analyzers. However, these fail to capture the 3D structure of their morphology. Additionally, atmospheric dispersion models often assume spherical particles with uniform refractive indices, introducing uncertainties in particle size estimations and dispersion calculations. In this study, we introduce a novel 3D characterization method for volcanic ash using digital holographic microscopy (DHM) combined with machine learning (ML). We implemented an off-axis interferometer to register holograms of volcanic ash samples. We show that segmented phase maps from the reconstructed holograms can be used to derive both 2D and 3D phase-based morphological parameters for individual ash particles or to estimate their refractive index. To illustrate the potential of this technique, we analyzed morphological differences between ashes acccording to their transport mechanism: fallout and flow. A ML algorithm based on support vector machine (SVM) was trained to classify particles into one of these two categories, achieving an average accuracy of 76%. These results show that the proposed approach serves as a valuable tool for monitoring volcanic eruptions providing insights on their characteristics and associated environmental impact.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Meteorological Impact of Glacier Retreat and Proglacial Lake Temperature in Western Norway 挪威西部冰川退缩和前冰湖温度的气象影响

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042715

K. F. Haualand, T. Sauter, J. Abermann, S. D. de Villiers, A. Georgi, B. Goger, I. Dawson, S. D. Nerhus, B. A. Robson, K. H. Sjursen, D. J. Thomas, M. Thomaser, J. C. Yde

{"title":"Meteorological Impact of Glacier Retreat and Proglacial Lake Temperature in Western Norway","authors":"K. F. Haualand, T. Sauter, J. Abermann, S. D. de Villiers, A. Georgi, B. Goger, I. Dawson, S. D. Nerhus, B. A. Robson, K. H. Sjursen, D. J. Thomas, M. Thomaser, J. C. Yde","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042715","url":null,"abstract":"Glaciers are retreating worldwide, yet, little is known about the influence of these changes on local weather and climate in glacial landscapes. Changes in glacier extent and proglacial lakes alter the thermodynamic forcing in glacier-lake-valley systems, and it is still an open question if their importance for future microclimate is greater than direct effects of global warming. To study the impact of these changes, we combine the first set of high-density spatiotemporal observations of a glacier-lake-valley system at Nigardsbreen in western Norway with high-resolution numerical simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The sensitivity of the thermodynamic circulation to glacier extent and proglacial lakes is tested using glacier outlines from 2006 to 2019 and varying lake surface temperature. The model represents the evolution of glacier winds and cold air pools well when thermal forcing dominates over large-scale forcing. During a persistent down-glacier wind regime, the glacier-valley circulation is sensitive to lake temperature and glacier extent, with strong impacts on wind speed, convection in the valley, and interaction with mountain waves. However, when the large-scale forcing dominates and the down-glacier wind is weak and shallower, impacts on atmospheric circulation are smaller, especially those related to lake temperature. This high sensitivity to meteorological conditions is related to whether the wind regime promotes thermal coupling between the glacier and the lake. The findings of this study highlight the need for accurate representation of glacier extent and proglacial lakes when evaluating local effects of past and future climate change in glacial regions.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042715","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fingerprint-Based Attribution and Constrained Projection of Global Risk of Daily Compound Hot Extremes 日复合极端高温全球风险的指纹归因与约束预测

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041986

Liangwei Li, Xihui Gu, Yansong Guan, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Louise J. Slater, Xueying Li, Lunche Wang, Khosro Ashrafi, Xiongpeng Tang, Dongdong Kong, Xiang Zhang

{"title":"Fingerprint-Based Attribution and Constrained Projection of Global Risk of Daily Compound Hot Extremes","authors":"Liangwei Li, Xihui Gu, Yansong Guan, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Louise J. Slater, Xueying Li, Lunche Wang, Khosro Ashrafi, Xiongpeng Tang, Dongdong Kong, Xiang Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041986","url":null,"abstract":"Compound hot extremes (CHEs)—the concurrence of daytime and nighttime heat—have been increasing under anthropogenic warming, causing serious damage to human society and ecosystems. However, the anthropogenic fingerprint in past and future changes in daily CHEs and the corresponding population exposure remain unclear. Here, using a fingerprint-based detection and attribution method, we quantify contributions of different external forcings to the historical increase in CHEs by defining three daily scale metrics: the probability ratio (PR) of CHEs and the proportion of CHEs in the number of extreme hot days/nights (PTday/PTnight). All three metrics increased significantly by 117.9%, 128.7%, and 133.4% globally from 1950 to 2014. It is very likely (>90%) for human to leave fingerprints in increasing daily CHEs. The increases in PR, PTday, and PTnight that are attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are 121.2%, 123.1%, and 121.5%, respectively. By the end of the 21st century under a high-emission scenario, fingerprint-constrained projections show the PR of CHEs will be about 60 times higher than the climatological period, with around 41% of hot days and 49% of hot nights as CHEs, reducing the magnitude compared to raw projections. In some regions such as mid and high-latitudes, almost all daytime or nighttime extreme-heat events would become CHEs. The growing difference between CHE days per person and per unit of land area suggests that CHEs will disproportionately affect densely populated areas. Our results indicate that adaptive measures are required to alleviate the increasing proportion of CHEs and the disproportionate population exposure in densely populated areas.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of the Turbulence Parameterization on Simulations of Fog Over Complex Terrain 湍流参数化对复杂地形雾模拟的影响

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042610

Shweta Singh, Juerg Schmidli, Ivan Bašták Ďurán, Stephanie Westerhuis

{"title":"Impact of the Turbulence Parameterization on Simulations of Fog Over Complex Terrain","authors":"Shweta Singh, Juerg Schmidli, Ivan Bašták Ďurán, Stephanie Westerhuis","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042610","url":null,"abstract":"Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of radiation fog, particularly over complex terrain, remains a formidable challenge. Many operational NWP models often struggle with slow or no fog formation after sunset and too rapid dissipation in the morning. This study investigates the role of physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in shaping the limitations of fog and low stratus representation within the operational ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model. Specifically, it evaluates the effects of turbulence parameterizations and vertical resolution on fog simulations. ICON simulations were conducted for selected winter periods characterized by persistent radiation fog, nocturnal fog, low stratus, and high pollutant concentrations over the Swiss Plateau. The simulations involved different configurations of the operational turbulence scheme (ICON-TKE) and the newly developed two-energies turbulence scheme (ICON-2TE). The performance of these model configurations was assessed using an ABL profiler and surface observations from the Payerne weather station in Switzerland. The results indicate that ICON-2TE, with its refined turbulence representation, allows fog to persist longer and aligns more closely with observations than ICON-TKE. This improvement is attributed to a more sophisticated treatment of stability dependence and turbulence length scale in the ICON-2TE scheme. Notably, an increase in vertical resolution improves fog representation in the ICON-2TE scheme, while it shows almost no effect in the ICON-TKE scheme. The lack of improvement in ICON-TKE is likely due to an overestimation of turbulence mixing, which overrides the effect of changes in vertical resolution.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042610","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Intrinsic Predictability From the Troposphere to the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere (MLT) 从对流层到中间层/低层热层（MLT）的内在可预测性

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043363

H. Garny

{"title":"Intrinsic Predictability From the Troposphere to the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere (MLT)","authors":"H. Garny","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043363","url":null,"abstract":"The atmosphere's flow becomes unpredictable beyond a certain time due to the inherent growth of small initial-state errors. While many research studies have focused on tropospheric predictability, predictability of the middle atmosphere remains less studied. This work contrasts the intrinsic predictability of different layers, with a focus on the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT, 50–120 km altitude). Ensemble simulations with the UA-ICON model for an austral winter/spring season are conducted with a gravity-wave-permitting horizontal resolution of 20 km. Initially small perturbations grow fastest in the MLT, reaching 10% of saturation after 5–6 days, compared to 10 days in the troposphere and 2 weeks in the stratosphere. A saturation level of 50% is reached only after about 2 weeks in the MLT, similar to the troposphere. Saturation times are overestimated in a coarser resolution model (grid size 160 km) by up to a factor of two, highlighting the need for gravity wave-resolving models. Predictability in the MLT depends on horizontal scales. Motions on scales of hundreds of kilometers are predictable for less than 5 days, while larger scales (thousands of kilometers) remain predictable for up to 20 days. This scale-dependent progression of predictability cannot be explained by simple scaling for upscale error growth. Vertical wave propagation plays a significant role, with gravity waves transmitting perturbations upward at early lead times and planetary waves enhancing long-term predictability. In summary, the study shows that MLT predictability is scale-dependent and highlights the necessity of high-resolution models to capture fast-growing perturbations and assess intrinsic predictability limits accurately.","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD043363","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0