Climate Change Influence on Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production and Its Associated Drivers in CMIP6 Ensemble Projections

Abstract

Climate change poses a threat to the global solar energy potential, but the regional impacts remain poorly understood. Using an ensemble of 32 climate models across four emission scenarios, we project changes in solar photovoltaic potential for 2066–2100 relative to 1980–2014 across 46 global regions. Our analysis employs novel methodologies, including atmospheric forcing decomposition and extreme event attribution, to identify the physical drivers of changes in solar resources. Under high-emission scenarios, tropical regions face severe solar potential losses of 10%–15%, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, driven by increased cloud cover and temperature-induced efficiency declines of 0.4%–0.5% per °C. Conversely, mid- and high-latitude regions could see 5%–10% increases under low-emission scenarios, primarily during summer. Aerosol effects consistently reduce solar potential (up to 10.24 W/m²), while cloud changes show mixed regional impacts. Extremely high-productivity solar days decline drastically (16%–99%) across most seasons and scenarios, posing a threat to grid stability. These findings reveal a fundamental restructuring of global solar resources that could exacerbate energy inequalities. Tropical regions—critical for sustainable development—face the most significant losses, while high-latitude areas may benefit. Substantial climate mitigation preserves solar potential in most regions, while high-emission pathways pose significant risks. Our results suggest the need to integrate climate projections into solar energy planning and develop climate-resilient photovoltaic technologies to ensure equitable energy access in a changing climate.