Journal of Air Transport Management最新文献_第5页

The impact of network optimization on airline financial performance: Evidence from China domestic routes 网络优化对航空公司财务绩效的影响：来自中国国内航线的证据

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102848

Yueer Zhou , Wenliang Ma , Yuchao Xu , Xiangru Wu , Linbo Li

{"title":"The impact of network optimization on airline financial performance: Evidence from China domestic routes","authors":"Yueer Zhou , Wenliang Ma , Yuchao Xu , Xiangru Wu , Linbo Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Network structure is a crucial strategic factor influencing airline revenue. A hub-and-spoke network can reduce airline costs due to economies of scale; however, it may lead to passenger leakage when alternative transportation modes are available. On the other hand, a point-to-point network offers greater convenience for passengers but is generally less profitable for airlines. This paper develops an optimization algorithm (Self-Regulated Ant Colony Optimization) to design a hybrid airline network that can simultaneously optimize route design and frequency setting. Then, applying a case study of the airline network of China Southern Airlines, we find that the designed hybrid network generates better financial performance, manifesting as higher revenue and larger load factors compared to the original network. At the same time, the airlines' operating time is significantly reduced. The results also indicate that, following network optimization, airlines tend to use smaller aircraft. Finally, we identify the characteristics of the suspended and newly generated routes after optimization. This paper has important policy implications for airline operations and network design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102848"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Air transportation and inclusive growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag and wavelet coherence approach 突尼斯的航空运输和包容性增长：来自自回归分布滞后和小波相干方法的证据

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102849

Manel Ouni , Rafaa Mraihi

{"title":"Air transportation and inclusive growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag and wavelet coherence approach","authors":"Manel Ouni , Rafaa Mraihi","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The inclusive growth paradigm has gained significant attention, with several organizations emphasizing its importance. However, while the concept of inclusive growth remains a topic of ongoing debate, the specific role of air transportation in promoting inclusive growth remains underexplored, particularly in its capacity to enhance accessibility, promote regional development, and integrate marginalized areas into national and global economies. This study investigates the relationship between air transportation and inclusive growth in Tunisia using annual data from 1965 to 2021. This study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze both short- and long-term relationships between the variables. At the same time, the wavelet coherence approach is used to examine how these relationships evolve over time and across different frequencies. The results from the ARDL model indicate that air transport, foreign direct investment, and social globalization are key determinants of inclusive growth in Tunisia. Moreover, the wavelet coherence analysis reveals that these factors positively influence inclusive growth, while the wavelet causality identifies a bidirectional causality between inclusive growth and the regressors, with variations in the timing and frequency of causality. This study contributes to the growing literature on transport infrastructure and inclusive growth by providing robust methodological insights and practical policy recommendations. These findings show the critical role of air transportation as a catalyst for sustainable and inclusive growth, emphasizing the importance of targeted investments and strategic policy interventions in Tunisia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102849"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144514265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-agent learning for data-driven air traffic management applications 数据驱动的空中交通管理应用的多智能体学习

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102843

Chuhao Deng, Hong-Cheol Choi, Hyunsang Park, Inseok Hwang

{"title":"Multi-agent learning for data-driven air traffic management applications","authors":"Chuhao Deng, Hong-Cheol Choi, Hyunsang Park, Inseok Hwang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research in developing data-driven models for Air Traffic Management (ATM) has gained tremendous interest in recent years. However, data-driven models are known to have long training time and require large datasets to achieve good performance, and the majority of proposed data-driven models ignores ATM system’s multi-agent characteristic. To fill the research gaps, this paper proposes a Multi-Agent Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (MA-BERT) model, which fully considers the multi-agent characteristic of the ATM system and outputs results based on all agents in the airspace. Additionally, compared to most data-driven models that are designed for a single application, the proposed MA-BERT’s encoder architecture enables it to be pre-trained through a self-supervised method and fine-tuned for a variety of data-driven ATM applications, saving a substantial amount of training time and data usage. The proposed MA-BERT is tested and compared with other widely used models using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data recorded in three airports in South Korea in 2019. The results show that MA-BERT can achieve much better performance than the comparison models, and by pre-training MA-BERT on a large dataset from a major airport and then fine-tuning it to other airports and applications, a significant amount of the training time can be saved. For newly adopted procedures and constructed airports where no historical data is available, the results show that the pre-trained MA-BERT can achieve high performance by updating regularly with small amount of data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102843"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The economic impact of the inoperability of the airport at a small-island tourism destination: The case of Madeira 小岛屿旅游目的地机场无法运作的经济影响：以马德拉岛为例

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102845

António Almeida , Luiz Pinto Machado , Brian Garrod

引用次数: 0

Why a multi-airport system? A tale of three metropolitan areas in China 为什么是多机场系统？中国三个大都市区的故事

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102847

Fan Xiao , Frédéric Dobruszkes , Huihui Mo , Jiaoe Wang

引用次数: 0

Runway capacity expansion planning for public airports under demand uncertainty 需求不确定性下的公共机场跑道扩容规划

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824

Ziyue Li , Joseph Y.J. Chow , Qianwen (Vivian) Guo

{"title":"Runway capacity expansion planning for public airports under demand uncertainty","authors":"Ziyue Li , Joseph Y.J. Chow , Qianwen (Vivian) Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flight delay is a significant issue affecting air travel. The runway system, frequently falling short of demand, serves as a bottleneck. As demand increases, runway capacity expansion becomes imperative to mitigate congestion. However, the decision to expand runway capacity is challenging due to inherent uncertainties in demand forecasts. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling air traffic demand growth as a jump diffusion process, incorporating two layers of uncertainty: Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) for continuous variability and a Poisson process to capture the impact of crisis events, such as natural disasters or public health emergencies, on decision-making. We propose a real options model to jointly evaluate the interrelated factors of optimal runway capacity and investment timing under uncertainty, with investment timing linked to trigger demand. The findings suggest that increased uncertainty indicates more conservative decision-making. Furthermore, the relationship between optimal investment timing and expansion size is complex: if the expansion size remains unchanged, the trigger demand decreases as the demand growth rate increases; if the expansion size experiences a jump, the trigger demand also exhibits a sharp rise. This work provides valuable insights for airport authorities for informed capacity expansion decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102824"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic prediction of aircraft turnaround milestone times using a cascaded gradient boosting model for improved airport collaborative decision-making 基于级联梯度推进模型的飞机周转里程碑时间动态预测改进机场协同决策

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842

Xiaowei Tang , Jiaqi Wu , Cheng-Lung Wu , Ye Ding , Shengrun Zhang

{"title":"Dynamic prediction of aircraft turnaround milestone times using a cascaded gradient boosting model for improved airport collaborative decision-making","authors":"Xiaowei Tang , Jiaqi Wu , Cheng-Lung Wu , Ye Ding , Shengrun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of milestone times in aircraft turnaround operations is crucial for enhancing flight on-time performance and airport operational efficiency within the airport collaborative decision-making framework. This study proposed a multi-output gradient boosting regression tree-based model in a cascaded framework to dynamically predict crucial milestone times of aircraft turnaround operations, with predictions continuously updated throughout the operational timeline. A comprehensive feature set, incorporating flight-related attributes and hierarchical information transmission features from preceding predictions, was developed using operational data from a study airport. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with an initial prediction accuracy higher than 80% within ±5 min for the actual turnaround activity times. Prediction performance improves progressively as turnaround operations advance, with over 60% of activities ultimately attaining prediction accuracy above 95% within the same threshold. Feature importance analysis indicates significant differences in feature contributions to different milestones of the ground handling process. This methodology provides stakeholders with actionable insights to support airport collaborative decision-making initiatives, enabling delay minimization and reduced slot wastage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102842"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-agent Estimated Time of Arrival prediction and dynamic arrival sequencing by Emulating Air Traffic Controllers 模拟空中交通管制员的多智能体估计到达时间预测与动态到达排序

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828

Hong-Cheol Choi , Chuhao Deng , Hyunsang Park , Jaeyoung Ryu , Hak-Tae Lee , Inseok Hwang

{"title":"Multi-agent Estimated Time of Arrival prediction and dynamic arrival sequencing by Emulating Air Traffic Controllers","authors":"Hong-Cheol Choi , Chuhao Deng , Hyunsang Park , Jaeyoung Ryu , Hak-Tae Lee , Inseok Hwang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is critical to the air traffic management system including aircraft sequencing for which Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) are responsible. Although significant advancements have been achieved in both ETA prediction and arrival sequencing, the development of decision support tools can be further improved by learning the expertise of ATCs and reflecting on their practical considerations. To fill the research gap, in this paper, we propose a multi-agent model for both ETA prediction and arrival sequencing based on the attention mechanism that can account for the current air traffic situation and capture the decisions made by ATCs. The proposed model is demonstrated with real air traffic surveillance data recorded at Incheon International Airport in South Korea and compared with existing models in terms of ETA prediction, sequence similarity, and arrival sequencing performance. The experimental results show that, in a real-time manner, the proposed model can provide landing sequences more acceptable to ATCs as well as more accurate ETAs than those of comparison models. Specifically, sequence similarity is measured by two rank correlation coefficients, which shows the superiority of the proposed model in emulating ATC decisions. Furthermore, important considerations in arrival sequencing are discussed based on actual ATC feedback.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102828"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling endogeneity in seat capacity and Fares: Time series econometric models for airline origin-destination passengers forecasting 座位容量和票价的内生性：航空公司始发目的地乘客预测的时间序列计量模型

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832

Ahmed Abdelghany , Khaled Abdelghany , Vitaly S. Guzhva , Mary Kai

{"title":"Unraveling endogeneity in seat capacity and Fares: Time series econometric models for airline origin-destination passengers forecasting","authors":"Ahmed Abdelghany , Khaled Abdelghany , Vitaly S. Guzhva , Mary Kai","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of origin-destination (O-D) air travel passengers is critical for airline schedule profitability analysis, as it enables airlines to align capacity with demand, optimize fare structures, and minimize operational inefficiencies. Reliable forecasts also support strategic decision-making by identifying profitable routes, reducing overcapacity risks, and enhancing network connectivity. This study explores the role of seat capacity and fares in forecasting O-D passengers through the development of three experimental models: the baseline Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Vector Autoregression (VAR) models with endogenous variables, and SARIMAX models with exogenous variables. The models are applied to two O-D pairs, LAX-JFK and IST-LHR, and extended to a larger sample of 2000 O-D pairs for more comprehensive analysis. Results reveal that treating seat capacity and fares as exogenous variables significantly improves forecasting accuracy of passengers, with the SARIMAX models outperforming the VAR models, which incorporate these variables as endogenous factors. The findings suggest that seat capacity is best modeled as an exogenous variable, consistent with airlines’ scheduling practices, where seat capacity may vary across different scheduling periods. This study contributes to the literature by providing insights into the complex relationships between seat capacity, fares, and passengers, while offering a scalable approach for forecasting across large airline networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102832"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-objective four-dimensional trajectory planning for free-route operations considering weather forecast uncertainty 考虑天气预报不确定性的自由航路作业多目标四维轨迹规划

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831

Yi Zhou , Minghua Hu , Daniel Delahaye , Lei Yang

{"title":"Multi-objective four-dimensional trajectory planning for free-route operations considering weather forecast uncertainty","authors":"Yi Zhou , Minghua Hu , Daniel Delahaye , Lei Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Free-route Operations (FRO) represent a significant shift in the future air traffic management, offering enhanced system capacity and operational efficiency. However, there remains a lack of trajectory management methods tailored to FRO that can effectively address the challenges of unstructured traffic flows, high traffic complexity, and uncertain weather conditions. This paper proposes a novel multi-module framework for 4D free-routing trajectory management, including trajectory prediction, airspace configuration, and strategic and tactical trajectory planning. Trajectory prediction incorporates ensemble-based weather forecasts to address uncertainty. A routing method tailored to FRO is adopted, combining a two-layer network with a K-shortest path algorithm to generate alternative routes. The core of this framework is a strategic trajectory planning method, integrating flow management and conflict management to optimize safety, efficiency, and flexibility. A complexity metric based on the linear dynamical system is adopted for safety evaluation. A distributed multi-objective optimization method is designed based on the decomposition mechanism, solving subproblems in parallel. The proposed framework is validated through a simulation scenario based on historical data from the western China airspace. Results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces operational risk by 88.52 % and increases flexibility by 51.66 %, with only a 6.84 % increase in cost. Additionally, trade-offs among three objectives are identified from non-dominated solutions, and a multi-criteria decision-making method guides the selection of the ideal solution and maneuver type. The proposed method also demonstrates high computational efficiency, making it a practical decision-support tool for future free-route operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102831"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0