Journal of Air Transport Management最新文献

Runway capacity expansion planning for public airports under demand uncertainty 需求不确定性下的公共机场跑道扩容规划

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824

Ziyue Li , Joseph Y.J. Chow , Qianwen (Vivian) Guo

{"title":"Runway capacity expansion planning for public airports under demand uncertainty","authors":"Ziyue Li , Joseph Y.J. Chow , Qianwen (Vivian) Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flight delay is a significant issue affecting air travel. The runway system, frequently falling short of demand, serves as a bottleneck. As demand increases, runway capacity expansion becomes imperative to mitigate congestion. However, the decision to expand runway capacity is challenging due to inherent uncertainties in demand forecasts. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling air traffic demand growth as a jump diffusion process, incorporating two layers of uncertainty: Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) for continuous variability and a Poisson process to capture the impact of crisis events, such as natural disasters or public health emergencies, on decision-making. We propose a real options model to jointly evaluate the interrelated factors of optimal runway capacity and investment timing under uncertainty, with investment timing linked to trigger demand. The findings suggest that increased uncertainty indicates more conservative decision-making. Furthermore, the relationship between optimal investment timing and expansion size is complex: if the expansion size remains unchanged, the trigger demand decreases as the demand growth rate increases; if the expansion size experiences a jump, the trigger demand also exhibits a sharp rise. This work provides valuable insights for airport authorities for informed capacity expansion decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102824"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic prediction of aircraft turnaround milestone times using a cascaded gradient boosting model for improved airport collaborative decision-making 基于级联梯度推进模型的飞机周转里程碑时间动态预测改进机场协同决策

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842

Xiaowei Tang , Jiaqi Wu , Cheng-Lung Wu , Ye Ding , Shengrun Zhang

{"title":"Dynamic prediction of aircraft turnaround milestone times using a cascaded gradient boosting model for improved airport collaborative decision-making","authors":"Xiaowei Tang , Jiaqi Wu , Cheng-Lung Wu , Ye Ding , Shengrun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of milestone times in aircraft turnaround operations is crucial for enhancing flight on-time performance and airport operational efficiency within the airport collaborative decision-making framework. This study proposed a multi-output gradient boosting regression tree-based model in a cascaded framework to dynamically predict crucial milestone times of aircraft turnaround operations, with predictions continuously updated throughout the operational timeline. A comprehensive feature set, incorporating flight-related attributes and hierarchical information transmission features from preceding predictions, was developed using operational data from a study airport. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with an initial prediction accuracy higher than 80% within ±5 min for the actual turnaround activity times. Prediction performance improves progressively as turnaround operations advance, with over 60% of activities ultimately attaining prediction accuracy above 95% within the same threshold. Feature importance analysis indicates significant differences in feature contributions to different milestones of the ground handling process. This methodology provides stakeholders with actionable insights to support airport collaborative decision-making initiatives, enabling delay minimization and reduced slot wastage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102842"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-agent Estimated Time of Arrival prediction and dynamic arrival sequencing by Emulating Air Traffic Controllers 模拟空中交通管制员的多智能体估计到达时间预测与动态到达排序

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828

Hong-Cheol Choi , Chuhao Deng , Hyunsang Park , Jaeyoung Ryu , Hak-Tae Lee , Inseok Hwang

{"title":"Multi-agent Estimated Time of Arrival prediction and dynamic arrival sequencing by Emulating Air Traffic Controllers","authors":"Hong-Cheol Choi , Chuhao Deng , Hyunsang Park , Jaeyoung Ryu , Hak-Tae Lee , Inseok Hwang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is critical to the air traffic management system including aircraft sequencing for which Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) are responsible. Although significant advancements have been achieved in both ETA prediction and arrival sequencing, the development of decision support tools can be further improved by learning the expertise of ATCs and reflecting on their practical considerations. To fill the research gap, in this paper, we propose a multi-agent model for both ETA prediction and arrival sequencing based on the attention mechanism that can account for the current air traffic situation and capture the decisions made by ATCs. The proposed model is demonstrated with real air traffic surveillance data recorded at Incheon International Airport in South Korea and compared with existing models in terms of ETA prediction, sequence similarity, and arrival sequencing performance. The experimental results show that, in a real-time manner, the proposed model can provide landing sequences more acceptable to ATCs as well as more accurate ETAs than those of comparison models. Specifically, sequence similarity is measured by two rank correlation coefficients, which shows the superiority of the proposed model in emulating ATC decisions. Furthermore, important considerations in arrival sequencing are discussed based on actual ATC feedback.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102828"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling endogeneity in seat capacity and Fares: Time series econometric models for airline origin-destination passengers forecasting 座位容量和票价的内生性：航空公司始发目的地乘客预测的时间序列计量模型

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832

Ahmed Abdelghany , Khaled Abdelghany , Vitaly S. Guzhva , Mary Kai

{"title":"Unraveling endogeneity in seat capacity and Fares: Time series econometric models for airline origin-destination passengers forecasting","authors":"Ahmed Abdelghany , Khaled Abdelghany , Vitaly S. Guzhva , Mary Kai","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of origin-destination (O-D) air travel passengers is critical for airline schedule profitability analysis, as it enables airlines to align capacity with demand, optimize fare structures, and minimize operational inefficiencies. Reliable forecasts also support strategic decision-making by identifying profitable routes, reducing overcapacity risks, and enhancing network connectivity. This study explores the role of seat capacity and fares in forecasting O-D passengers through the development of three experimental models: the baseline Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Vector Autoregression (VAR) models with endogenous variables, and SARIMAX models with exogenous variables. The models are applied to two O-D pairs, LAX-JFK and IST-LHR, and extended to a larger sample of 2000 O-D pairs for more comprehensive analysis. Results reveal that treating seat capacity and fares as exogenous variables significantly improves forecasting accuracy of passengers, with the SARIMAX models outperforming the VAR models, which incorporate these variables as endogenous factors. The findings suggest that seat capacity is best modeled as an exogenous variable, consistent with airlines’ scheduling practices, where seat capacity may vary across different scheduling periods. This study contributes to the literature by providing insights into the complex relationships between seat capacity, fares, and passengers, while offering a scalable approach for forecasting across large airline networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102832"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-objective four-dimensional trajectory planning for free-route operations considering weather forecast uncertainty 考虑天气预报不确定性的自由航路作业多目标四维轨迹规划

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831

Yi Zhou , Minghua Hu , Daniel Delahaye , Lei Yang

{"title":"Multi-objective four-dimensional trajectory planning for free-route operations considering weather forecast uncertainty","authors":"Yi Zhou , Minghua Hu , Daniel Delahaye , Lei Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Free-route Operations (FRO) represent a significant shift in the future air traffic management, offering enhanced system capacity and operational efficiency. However, there remains a lack of trajectory management methods tailored to FRO that can effectively address the challenges of unstructured traffic flows, high traffic complexity, and uncertain weather conditions. This paper proposes a novel multi-module framework for 4D free-routing trajectory management, including trajectory prediction, airspace configuration, and strategic and tactical trajectory planning. Trajectory prediction incorporates ensemble-based weather forecasts to address uncertainty. A routing method tailored to FRO is adopted, combining a two-layer network with a K-shortest path algorithm to generate alternative routes. The core of this framework is a strategic trajectory planning method, integrating flow management and conflict management to optimize safety, efficiency, and flexibility. A complexity metric based on the linear dynamical system is adopted for safety evaluation. A distributed multi-objective optimization method is designed based on the decomposition mechanism, solving subproblems in parallel. The proposed framework is validated through a simulation scenario based on historical data from the western China airspace. Results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces operational risk by 88.52 % and increases flexibility by 51.66 %, with only a 6.84 % increase in cost. Additionally, trade-offs among three objectives are identified from non-dominated solutions, and a multi-criteria decision-making method guides the selection of the ideal solution and maneuver type. The proposed method also demonstrates high computational efficiency, making it a practical decision-support tool for future free-route operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 102831"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Suddenly with little or no warning: Learning from first person accounts of VFR into IMC 突然间，在很少或没有任何警告的情况下：从VFR的第一人称账户学习到IMC

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102830

Stephen O’Mahony

引用次数: 0

Gold for global airline stock indices during COVID-19: Hedge or safe-haven asset? 2019冠状病毒病期间全球航空股指数的黄金：对冲还是避险资产？

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102791

Nedal Al-Fayoumi , Bana Abuzayed , Elie Bouri

引用次数: 0

Airline energy efficiency measurement considering heterogeneity 考虑异质性的航空公司能源效率测量

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102829

Ye Li , Jin-kun Zheng , Xi-xi Luo , Qiang Cui

{"title":"Airline energy efficiency measurement considering heterogeneity","authors":"Ye Li , Jin-kun Zheng , Xi-xi Luo , Qiang Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Characterized by rising labor costs, volatile fuel prices, and a slowdown in the global economy in recent years, the survival and development of airlines are facing a crisis under the influence of this series of internal and external risks. Therefore, it is essential to pay close attention to the efficiency of airlines worldwide. Currently, most studies do not consider the heterogeneity of airlines and treat all types of airlines as homogeneous decision-making units for efficiency evaluation. The results of the airline energy efficiency evaluation are biased. In this study, the meta-frontier model and the Epsilon-Based Measure (EBM) model are combined to measure the efficiency of airlines and, at the same time, open the internal operation process of the airline and analyze the aviation efficiency—three-stage efficiency of company operations, services, and sales. The results show that the efficiency value of the operation stage is the lowest, and the number of high-efficiency airlines in the operation stage is the least. Most airlines' inefficiency comes from the Operations stage. The efficiency under the meta-frontier does not exceed the corresponding efficiency under the group frontier, and ignoring the impact of heterogeneity will bias the airline's energy efficiency evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 102829"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Behavior study on pedestrian avoidance characteristics in aircraft cabin aisle 飞机客舱通道行人避扰特性行为研究

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102825

Zhenxiang Tao , Ying Li , Xubo Huang , Yisen Wang , Guanning Wang , Rui Yang

{"title":"Behavior study on pedestrian avoidance characteristics in aircraft cabin aisle","authors":"Zhenxiang Tao , Ying Li , Xubo Huang , Yisen Wang , Guanning Wang , Rui Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the diversification of transportation, the emergencies encountered by travelers during travel are becoming increasingly complex. The narrow aisle space within aircraft cabins, due to layout limitations, significantly restricts evacuation behavior, thereby escalating the complexity of evacuation procedures. This work studies the impact of common emergency-limiting factors such as obstacle types, initial movement speeds, aisle widths, and movement modes on personnel avoidance behavior within aircraft cabins. Research has found that the presence of suitcase obstacle primarily influenced the choice of avoidance behavior through subjective factors such as movement mode and initial speed. Conversely, in scenarios with pedestrian obstacles, avoidance behavior is shaped by both subjective factors and the evacuation environment (aisle width, obstacle type). Regarding movement trajectory, the lateral movement range of pedestrians is mainly related to the width of the aisle. At the same time, the lateral deviation of pedestrian movement trajectory will be adjusted according to the movement mode and obstacle type, and the safe distance for pedestrians to avoid the obstacles is approximately 0.5 m–1.5 m. In addition, research has found that in a 0.4m wide and obstacle-free aisle, the need for \"obstacle-free\" evacuation has been met, and the speed no longer increases with the width of the aisle. The aisle width is the main factor affecting the distribution of the average movement speed range. When there is suitcase obstacle, the frequency distribution of pedestrians' movement speed is related to their movement mode. The low-speed frequency of the \"individual\" is significantly higher than that of the \"group\".</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 102825"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-forces floor field model simulation of cabin evacuation scenarios for various passenger groups 不同客舱人群疏散场景的多力地板场模型仿真

IF 3.9 2区工程技术

Journal of Air Transport Management Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102819

Quan Shao, Ke Xue, Hui Li, Mingming Yang

{"title":"Multi-forces floor field model simulation of cabin evacuation scenarios for various passenger groups","authors":"Quan Shao, Ke Xue, Hui Li, Mingming Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The behavior of passengers during aircraft cabin evacuations is characterized by its complexity and variability. To investigate the combination, backtracking, and following behaviors of passenger groups with specific social statuses, as well as the evacuation behavior of disabled groups using wheelchairs with the assistance of auxiliary personnel, we assess the influence of group behavior on evacuation efficiency employing the multi-forces floor field cellular automaton model. This model accounts for the logical differences in evacuation behaviors between different-sized and disabled groups. Through simulation, we analyze the effect of the timing of disabled groups joining the evacuation process on the evacuation duration and efficiency of different cabin segments. What is more, we examine the spatial distribution of groups of various sizes during the evacuation process. The results indicate that the early integration of disabled groups has a minimal overall impact, while their delayed involvement exacerbates the imbalance in exit usage time. The presence of groups prolongs the total evacuation time, with pairs exhibiting a denser spatial structure compared to larger groups. The negative impact brought by groups increases with the size of the group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 102819"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0