{"title":"Analyzing the impacts on passenger yield of incumbent companies after the entry of a new company into the aviation market: The case of Brazil","authors":"Arlley Pereira de Araujo , Maria Rosa Borges","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102682","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102682","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The public air transport market is generally oligopolistic, meaning that the market strategies of some companies can influence the decisions of rivals and impact consumer prices. This sector has been marked by a large flow of airline entries and exits. Considering this scenario, the objective of this work is to evaluate how the revenue from airline tickets of incumbent companies in the national aviation market in Brazil was impacted after the entry of a new company. A fixed-effects Difference-in-Differences model (DID) using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator with panel data is used to assess this impact. To assess the impact of the entrant on yield dispersion, we apply the regression equation to P90 and P10 of the distribution. We also applied the equation, considering the Gini coefficient as the dependent variable. The results showed that the average income of incumbent companies reduced by an estimated magnitude of 5.9% in the period after the new company entered the market. Our findings also indicate an increase in distribution dispersion in the period following market entry, with a more pronounced reduction of 19% in the P10 and 1.5% in the P90. We conclude that the entry of the new company was readily assimilated by the incumbents, so that the competitive effect can explain the identified reduction in average income. The entry of a new competitor was especially beneficial to consumers in the lower tail of the distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102682"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724001479/pdfft?md5=6dc6644036a0ca4bdf4a216c37d3e1ef&pid=1-s2.0-S0969699724001479-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stanislav Bukhman, Mario P. Brito, Ming-Chien Sung
{"title":"Quantifying civilian aircraft vulnerability: A data-driven approach in geo-political conflict zones for improved risk assessment of aircraft shot-down","authors":"Stanislav Bukhman, Mario P. Brito, Ming-Chien Sung","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102674","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current risk analysis methods for quantifying the risk of the shooting down of commercial aircraft rely on the use of risk matrices and risk categorisation classes. We show that these processes are not effective, subject to bias and not adequate to help aviation companies decide whether to fly to or over conflict areas.</div><div>Information concerning terror attacks, wars or conflicts is instantly available through various internet channels, and we argue that this enables more innovative accurate data-driven aircraft shoot down risk assessment. We propose a generalised linear model with logit link to estimate the likelihood of an aircraft being shot down based on technical and geo-political environmental factors. We use our model to estimate the probability of aircraft being shot down in all countries that are currently affected by military conflict. We demonstrate that probability of shooting down civilian aircraft depends on economic indicator such as GDP per capita, type and intensity of the conflict. We validate our model using out-of-sample tests with cross-validation.</div><div>The method proposed in this paper uses data available in open sources, it is easy to implement and utilize in aviation company or other industry bodies for prediction of aircraft shooting risks. It significantly improves currently existing methodologies of aircraft shooting risk assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102674"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096969972400139X/pdfft?md5=80d2e7b70fd9741ce2e3639bf54219d5&pid=1-s2.0-S096969972400139X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raquel Delgado-Aguilera Jurado, Xiaojie Ye, Vicent Ortolá Plaza, María Zamarreño Suárez, Francisco Pérez Moreno, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés
{"title":"An introduction to the current state of standardization and certification on military AI applications","authors":"Raquel Delgado-Aguilera Jurado, Xiaojie Ye, Vicent Ortolá Plaza, María Zamarreño Suárez, Francisco Pérez Moreno, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The main objective of this article is to provide an overview of the current state of development regarding certification and standardization efforts for Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in military aviation. The incorporation of AI capabilities in the military holds the potential for significant strategic advantages in information and decision supremacy. However, AI also brings novel risks and safety considerations that existing certification processes are inadequate to address. Consequently, the need arises for the establishment of an entirely new certification framework, encompassing requirements and standardized processes tailored to the unique demands of AI safe-ty. During the development of such framework, the 7 High Level Requirements of the EU AI High Level Experts Group are taken as reference to develop the successive horizontal (cross-domain) and vertical (domain-specific) standards that would produce legal, robust and ethical AI. To facilitate the creation of a new AI certification framework in military aviation, a review has been done over traditional civil and military certification processes and the current AI certification progress under development, to present an overview of the key elements and processes involved. References from various levels (regulatory, industry, research) have been considered to provide an introduction to the prospective military AI certification framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102685"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724001509/pdfft?md5=25a285bafa175eff67db980bafdcb074&pid=1-s2.0-S0969699724001509-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determining factors affecting the upselling acceptance of business class seats among Filipino passengers: An extended theory of planned behavior approach","authors":"Fernan Patrick Flores , Yogi Tri Prasetyo","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Upselling of business class seats has been implemented by many commercial airlines as part of their revenue management strategies. The purpose of this was to determine factors affecting the upselling acceptance of business class seats among Filipino passengers by utilizing an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) approach. A total 323 Filipinos voluntarily answered an online questionnaire that was distributed through a purposive sampling approach. The questionnaire consisted of 41 items that covered various factors such as Price (PR), Perceived Value (PV), Social Status (SS), Facilitating Conditions (FC), Hedonic Motivation (HM), Subjective Norm (SN), Attitude (A), Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC), and Intention (I). Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) showed SN was the most significant factor affecting passengers' intention to accept business class upselling offer, followed by PBC, PR, A, and FC. In addition, PV, FC, and A had significant effects on PBC which subsequently led to I. Furthermore, HM, P, and SS had significant effects on A which subsequently led to SN and I. Meanwhile, only two hypotheses were not supported by the study. This study is one of the first studies that explored the upselling in the business class seats using behavioral factors and additional variables to determine their intentions. The results of this study could help the airline industry to evaluate their strategy in revenue management. Finally, the findings of this study add to the current literature and help airlines’ marketing strategy and promote seat bidding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102686"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142311677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mark E. Holmes , Tim Ryley , Aletha Ward , Erich C. Fein , Sophia Martin
{"title":"Australasian aviation climate change hazards: A systematic review","authors":"Mark E. Holmes , Tim Ryley , Aletha Ward , Erich C. Fein , Sophia Martin","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This systematic review identifies Australasian aviation climate change hazards to guide evidence-based climate risk management for the Australasian aviation industry. Identifying evidence-based climate hazards is imperative to inform local adaptation strategies. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach, literature from 2005 to 2023 was searched and a qualitative systematic analysis of results undertaken. The search identified 22 records, including grey literature, and showed climate change hazards to flight operations include changes in wind, turbulence, dust, smoke, icing and hail. Hazards to airport operations include changes in precipitation, heat, saltwater inundation, tsunamis, lightning and volcanic ash. A first pass risk assessment was conducted to prioritise these climate change hazards to further guide industry risk management. In response, the Australasian aviation industry needs to introduce evidence-based climate risk management systems and disparate climate literature transferred to the aviation knowledge base. Research from the northern hemisphere needs to be adapted and contextualised to the Australasian setting where feasible, or replicated to meet specific regional needs, enhancing the climate resilience of the local aviation sociotechnical system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102670"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724001352/pdfft?md5=bdf6fef5f72a72422f05fcabc53da1cf&pid=1-s2.0-S0969699724001352-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142230327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancing pilot vigilance assessment: The role of flight data and continuous performance test in detecting random attention loss in short IFR flights","authors":"Alireza Ghaderi, Fariborz Saghafi","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Situational awareness (SA) and fatigue management are crucial aspects of aviation safety, particularly during demanding flight phases. This study introduces an innovative approach employing flight data, machine learning, and Continuous Performance Test (CPT) metrics to predict pilot performance and SA during instrument approaches under Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). Data were collected from over 10 pilots across more than 40 flights in a high-fidelity Cessna 172 analog flight simulator.</p><p>Significant correlations were observed between dynamic cognitive performance parameters and the exceedance shape factor, a novel measure of pilot sustained attention introduced in this research. Key variables identified through correlation analysis included variability, interstimulus change, and reaction time standard deviation.</p><p>Importantly, commission scores and reaction time standard deviation emerged as key predictors in the machine learning model, specifically the Optimizable Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model with a radial basis function kernel. The model achieved a validation R-squared of 0.90 and a test R-squared of 0.70. These systems could incorporate additional data sources, such as eye-tracking and scan pattern analysis, for a better assessment of pilot SA and fatigue levels. While post-flight measurements are inherently reactive, they are effective for monitoring the degradation of pilot CPT scores after each leg of high-frequency, short-duration flights.</p><p>Notable limitations include the need to understand individual cognitive differences among pilots, such as age, experience, and cognitive style. The predictive model also requires validation in actual flight conditions to determine its ecological validity. Future research should aim to address these limitations, generalize the findings, and integrate CPT data with other sensor inputs to provide a more comprehensive understanding of pilot performance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 102673"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142098930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Incorporating CO2 emissions and capacity utilization in the airline inefficiency analysis: A two-stage multiproduct network technology with a nonconvex metafrontier framework","authors":"Kok Fong See , Azwan Abdul Rashid , Ming-Miin Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, the energy and emissions, as well as the capacity utilization and inefficiencies of global airlines in alliance and nonalliance groups, are analyzed using two-stage multiproduct network technology with a nonconvex metafrontier framework. By integrating group frontier and metafrontier analysis, our proposed model allows us to estimate both the constrained technology and unconstrained capacity gaps among airlines operating with different technologies. We examine the simultaneous effect of capacity utilization, energy and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on global airlines using a metafrontier framework. The empirical results indicate that 12 airlines operate inefficiently at the constrained metafrontier, which may be due to group frontier inefficiency, technology gap inefficiency or both. In terms of network capacity utilization inefficiency, 6 airlines are required to scale labor when operating at maximum capacity. Several strategies are recommended to improve metatechnology technical efficiency and network capacity utilization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 102644"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fang Sun , Hao Yin , Xiaoqian Sun , Xinglong Wang , Yu Zhang
{"title":"Resilience analysis of cities' air accessibility under disruptions","authors":"Fang Sun , Hao Yin , Xiaoqian Sun , Xinglong Wang , Yu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Air transportation stands as an indispensable pillar of a city's economy. An effective and reliable air transport service plays an important role for the prosperity of a city. Moreover, in many cases, a city has multiple airports within its catchment area and the collaborative relationships under disruptions between these airport services have often been overlooked in prior studies. To bridge this gap, this paper firstly introduces the concept of “instant air accessibility” for a city and develops a resilience metric aimed at quantifying the impact of airport disruptions on a city's air accessibility, taking into account the perspective of a multi-airport system. We apply the metrics to a network with 48 cities at or above the second-tier level in China. Results of the air accessibility analysis show that some relatively small cities have high accessibility that are comparable to megacities in China, but some provincial capital cities have low accessibilities, although they maintain superior political and economic status among the cities. Most of the cities' accessibility are vulnerable to targeted disruptions. Additionally, we identify critical airports that wield significant influence over the overall accessibility performance of the entire network. The findings from this study offer valuable insights for the management of air transport resources and the enhancement of the resilience of cities' air accessibility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 102671"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142098931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lam Jun Guang Andy, Sameer Alam, Nimrod Lilith, Rajesh Piplani
{"title":"A deep reinforcement learning approach for Runway Configuration Management: A case study for Philadelphia International Airport","authors":"Lam Jun Guang Andy, Sameer Alam, Nimrod Lilith, Rajesh Piplani","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Airports featuring multiple runways have the capability to operate in diverse runway configurations, each with its unique setup. Presently, Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs) heavily rely on their operational experience and predefined procedures (”playbooks”) to plan the utilization of runway configurations. These ’playbooks’ however lack the capacity to comprehensively address the intricacies of a dynamic runway system under increasing weather uncertainties.</p><p>This study introduces innovative methodologies for addressing the Runway Configuration Management (RCM) problem, with the objective of selecting the optimal runway configuration to maximize the overall runway system capacity. A new approach is presented, employing Deep Reinforcement Learning (Deep RL) techniques that leverage real-world data obtained from operations at Philadelphia International Airport (PHL). This approach generates a day-long schedule of optimized runway configurations with a rolling window horizon, until the end of the day, updated every 30 min.</p><p>Additionally, a computational model is introduced to gauge the impact on capacity resulting from transitions between runway configurations which feedback into optimized runway configurations generation. The Deep RL model demonstrates reduction of number of delayed flights, amounting to approximately 30%, when applied to scenarios not encountered during the model’s training phase. Moreover, the Deep RL model effectively reduces the number of delayed arrivals by 27% and departures by 33% when compared to a baseline configuration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 102672"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Murugesan , Rekha A P , Nitish N , Raghavan Balanathan
{"title":"Forecasting airline passengers’ satisfaction based on sentiments and ratings: An application of VADER and machine learning techniques","authors":"R. Murugesan , Rekha A P , Nitish N , Raghavan Balanathan","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To the best of the authors' knowledge, research predicting airline passengers' satisfaction based on their sentiments and ratings is seldom sighted. Additionally, the literature reveals that most studies have primarily concentrated on specific airlines or routes, neglecting to conduct a comparative analysis of satisfaction levels across numerous airlines and routes. Hence, this research aims to predict passengers' satisfaction by combining the sentiment of their reviews and ratings on various parameters like food, entertainment, seat comfort, ground service, and value for money. Using the \"Skytrax Airline Reviews\" dataset, which contains data about 81 airlines and 64440 reviews, our research analyzes and predicts airline passengers' satisfaction based on sentiments and ratings using nine popular machine learning techniques. The study found that the LightGBM obtains an accuracy of 97 percent in predicting customer satisfaction. The results further reveal that 'value for money' and 'ground service' are crucial factors in determining the passengers' satisfaction, whereas 'entertainment' had no significant impact. Our study thus provides a valuable tool for predicting airline industry customer satisfaction and gives insight into the factors contributing to passenger satisfaction. These findings can further help airlines better understand their passengers' needs and improve their services accordingly.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 102668"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}