Epidemiology and Infection最新文献_第8页

Post-pandemic immunity debt for paediatric infectious diseases in Japan between 2014 and 2024. 2014年至2024年间日本儿科传染病大流行后免疫债务。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101587

Noriko Kitamura, Natsumi Kondo, Sophearen Ith, Mai Okuyama, Taro Kamigaki, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takashi Tsukakoshi, Motoi Suzuki

{"title":"Post-pandemic immunity debt for paediatric infectious diseases in Japan between 2014 and 2024.","authors":"Noriko Kitamura, Natsumi Kondo, Sophearen Ith, Mai Okuyama, Taro Kamigaki, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takashi Tsukakoshi, Motoi Suzuki","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101587","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101587","url":null,"abstract":"Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic were known to create an immunity debt. This study aimed to quantify the immunity debt for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and influenza in Japan between 2014 and 2024. We conducted a retrospective observational study using national surveillance data and electronic health records in 23 clinics. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of NPIs. The number of RSV cases declined by 84% in the 2020-2021 season and increased by 39% in the 2021-2022 season, primarily due to an increase in cases among 2-year-old children (94%). Adenovirus, GAS, and influenza were suppressed during the 2020-2022 season by 58-99%. Adenovirus cases increased by 195% in 2023, with a 458% increase among children aged 5-9 years. GAS increased by 36% in 2024, with a 96% increase among 10- to 14-year-olds. Influenza increased by 158% in 2023, with a 299% increase among 10- to 14-year-olds. Surveillance data and 23 clinics' data showed similar trends. The study suggests that the intensity and timing of the immunity debt differed by pathogen.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e67"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13231238/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147835143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Association between chronic hepatitis B virus infection and stroke risk: a propensity score-matched analysis. 慢性乙型肝炎病毒感染与卒中风险之间的关系：倾向评分匹配分析。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882610154X

Amir Yahav, Doaa Ryan, Nael Tuma, Anat Arbel, Nili Stein, Eitan Auriel, Walid Saliba

{"title":"Association between chronic hepatitis B virus infection and stroke risk: a propensity score-matched analysis.","authors":"Amir Yahav, Doaa Ryan, Nael Tuma, Anat Arbel, Nili Stein, Eitan Auriel, Walid Saliba","doi":"10.1017/S095026882610154X","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S095026882610154X","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence on the association between chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and stroke is limited, inconsistent, and confined predominantly to endemic regions in Asia. This study investigated the association between chronic HBV infection and stroke using data from the largest healthcare provider in Israel. All individuals aged 20 and older who were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) between 2005 and 2023 were identified. Newly diagnosed HBV patients (HBsAg-positive) were propensity scorematched to non-HBV subjects (HBsAg-negative) in a 1:4 ratio and followed for stroke occurrence through 2024. The study included 20 544 HBV patients and 82 176 matched controls. Overall stroke was diagnosed in 472 HBV patients and 1 717 controls (incidence rates: 2.13 vs. 1.94 per 1 000 person-years). Hazard ratios were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.98-1.22) for overall stroke, 1.01 (0.89-1.14) for ischemic stroke, and 1.82 (1.35-2.45) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Ischemic stroke risk was specifically increased in younger individuals and females (p-for-interaction = 0.006 and 0.079, respectively). Results remained consistent when excluding patients with prior stroke. Exploratory analysis suggested hepatitis D coinfection is associated with increased ICH risk. In conclusion, chronic HBV infection was associated with significantly increased ICH risk, with subgroup-specific increases in ischemic stroke risk.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13244349/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147835085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Acute COVID-19 mortality in England in the omicron era: a national-level matched cohort study. 欧米克隆时代英格兰COVID-19急性死亡率：一项国家级匹配队列研究

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101472

Katie Hassell, Nick Andrews, Gavin Dabrera, Meaghan Kall, Hester Allen

{"title":"Acute COVID-19 mortality in England in the omicron era: a national-level matched cohort study.","authors":"Katie Hassell, Nick Andrews, Gavin Dabrera, Meaghan Kall, Hester Allen","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101472","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101472","url":null,"abstract":"Fluctuations in disease severity occurred throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in England due to emerging variants and changing population immunity. Deaths caused by COVID-19 reduced from 2022; however, a smaller reduction was observed in deaths following a COVID-19 test. This study examines whether mortality risk within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test remained elevated during a period of reduced disease severity. National-level routinely collected health data containing SARS-CoV-2 test results, vaccination, hospital, and death records were linked to create a population-level cohort. Individuals testing positive and negative were matched on demographic and disease characteristics. Mortality risk was compared using univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression models for the overall time-period (March 2020-April 2022) and the focus time-period (January-April 2022). Individuals testing positive in the overall time-period had a 228% increased risk of death than those testing negative. In the focused time-period, test positive individuals had 63% higher odds of death, accounting for vaccination and previous hospitalisation. The increased risk of death associated with testing positive was greater among unvaccinated individuals (238%) than vaccinated individuals (155%). Mortality risk following COVID-19 remained elevated at the end of the pandemic, especially among unvaccinated individuals, supporting continued COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e70"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13244348/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147835062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interregional outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium linked to fresh cheese: A case-case study guided by whole-genome sequencing (WGS), Portugal, March-June 2024. 与新鲜奶酪有关的鼠伤寒沙门氏菌区域间爆发：全基因组测序（WGS）指导下的个案研究，葡萄牙，2024年3月至6月。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-05-04 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101538

Sebastian von Schreeb, Leonor Silveira, Ângela Pista, João Paulo Gomes, Mónica Oleastro, Sara Gomes Raposo, Valentyna Lutsiv, Juan Rachadell, Helder Pinto, Patrícia Correia Rico, Luísa Pestana, Vera Leal Pessoa, António Carlos Silva, Ana Dinis, Maria Helena Almeida, Kostas Danis, Paula Vasconcelos, Pedro Pinto Leite, Vasco Ricoca Peixoto

{"title":"Interregional outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium linked to fresh cheese: A case-case study guided by whole-genome sequencing (WGS), Portugal, March-June 2024.","authors":"Sebastian von Schreeb, Leonor Silveira, Ângela Pista, João Paulo Gomes, Mónica Oleastro, Sara Gomes Raposo, Valentyna Lutsiv, Juan Rachadell, Helder Pinto, Patrícia Correia Rico, Luísa Pestana, Vera Leal Pessoa, António Carlos Silva, Ana Dinis, Maria Helena Almeida, Kostas Danis, Paula Vasconcelos, Pedro Pinto Leite, Vasco Ricoca Peixoto","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101538","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101538","url":null,"abstract":"In 2024, an outbreak of Salmonella typhimurium affected two regions in Portugal. To identify the vehicle, we conducted a case-case study using a 'same disease, different time period' design. We compared S. typhimurium cases linked by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) (cluster cases) with salmonellosis cases notified in 2023 (historical cases) and calculated odds ratios (OR) for food exposures in surveillance data using logistic regression. We performed WGS on 58 isolates from the outbreak period (11/03/2024-2118/06/2024), and all belonged to a single cgMLST cluster (HierCC HC5_410,410). Compared with the 552 historical cases, cluster cases more frequently reported fresh cheese consumption (OR 18; 95% CI: 8.5-38). We visited the implicated cheese production site, identified food safety non-conformities, and enforced hygiene measures. Environmental and product specimens collected at the visit tested negative for Salmonella spp. Taken together, the most plausible vehicle in this outbreak was fresh cheese. The case-case design enabled a rapid, low-cost analysis to support targeted investigation using surveillance data. Using WGS cluster cases as the case definition, rather than all S. typhimurium cases during the outbreak period, yielded a higher OR in the case-case study, increasing confidence in the findings. We recommend this combined approach as part of the toolkit for foodborne outbreak investigations in Portugal in similar contexts.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e68"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13231226/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147812164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comparison of frequentist and Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies. 诊断测试准确性研究的元分析中频率分析方法和贝叶斯方法的比较。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101551

Xanthoula Rousou, Luis Furuya-Kanamori, Polychronis Kostoulas, Suhail A R Doi, Eleftherios Meletis, Nikolaos Solomakos

{"title":"A comparison of frequentist and Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies.","authors":"Xanthoula Rousou, Luis Furuya-Kanamori, Polychronis Kostoulas, Suhail A R Doi, Eleftherios Meletis, Nikolaos Solomakos","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101551","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101551","url":null,"abstract":"Diagnostic test accuracy studies assess a diagnostic test's performance against a reference standard. In this review, we explore and compare statistical methods used in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies. Specifically, we evaluate two frequentist methods - split component synthesis (SCS) and bivariate model (BM) - alongside two Bayesian approaches: Bayesian hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (BHSROC) and Bayesian bivariate model (BBM). We also include their latent class variants (LC-BHSROC and LC-BBM). Using a meta-analysis of various multiplex nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs/PCRs) against Campylobacter spp. as a case study we illustrate the practical applications of these methods. The reference standard was culture, and due to differences in cut-off values and primers among the NAAT/PCR brands, substantial heterogeneity was anticipated. Our findings reveal that the BM and BBM methods tend to estimate higher sensitivities than the other approaches, even when the number of studies is substantial, and heterogeneity is moderate - as observed in this case study. In such scenario, the SCS method or the BHSROC model may offer more robust and reliable outcomes. While our review is based on a real-life meta-analysis rather than simulations, it offers practical insights into the strengths and limitations of these statistical approaches for diagnostic test accuracy studies.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e61"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13184654/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147766230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influenza vaccination coverage and determinants of vaccination among older adults in Turkey. 土耳其老年人流感疫苗接种覆盖率和疫苗接种决定因素

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101563

Buşra Tozduman, Buğra Taygun Gülle

{"title":"Influenza vaccination coverage and determinants of vaccination among older adults in Turkey.","authors":"Buşra Tozduman, Buğra Taygun Gülle","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101563","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101563","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to identify determinants of influenza vaccination among older adults using nationally representative data from the Turkey Older Persons Profile Survey 2023. Data from 11 657 individuals aged 65 and over, collected by the Turkish Statistical Institute, were analysed. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was employed for variable selection, followed by binary logistic regression to identify significant predictors. Only 19.4% of older adults reported receiving an influenza vaccine during the 2022/2023 influenza season. Higher education, income sufficiency, social security coverage, regular medication use, physical activity, and use of mobile health (mHealth) applications were significantly associated with higher vaccination uptake. Former smoking, alcohol consumption, older age, higher body mass index, and greater independence in daily living were also positive predictors. Traditional barriers to healthcare access (e.g., transportation, waiting times) were not significantly associated. Regional disparities were evident, with lower vaccination rates in the eastern regions. Vaccine uptake among older adults in Turkey is low despite universal access. Promoting engagement with primary healthcare services and increasing the use of mHealth applications may contribute to increasing vaccination coverage. Special attention should be given to socially disadvantaged groups and underperforming regions to enhance preventive healthcare among the aging population.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e59"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13177008/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147766154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Epidemiologic and economic impact of introducing a National Immunization Program for herpes zoster vaccination on the prevention of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in South Korea, an ageing society. 在韩国这个老龄化社会，引入带状疱疹疫苗国家免疫规划对预防带状疱疹和带状疱疹后神经痛的流行病学和经济影响。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101502

Gahee Kim, Jaehee Jung, Dain Lee, Hee-Do Yang, Hye-Young Kang

{"title":"Epidemiologic and economic impact of introducing a National Immunization Program for herpes zoster vaccination on the prevention of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in South Korea, an ageing society.","authors":"Gahee Kim, Jaehee Jung, Dain Lee, Hee-Do Yang, Hye-Young Kang","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101502","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101502","url":null,"abstract":"Herpes zoster (HZ) and its complication, postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), disproportionately affect older adults and impose a considerable disease and economic burden. Although the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency recommends vaccination for adults aged ≥50 years, uptake remains limited. This study assessed the epidemiologic and economic impact of expanding vaccine coverage through inclusion of the live-attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL) and the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in the National Immunization Program (NIP). Using the incidence data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service Open Statistics, along with vaccine effectiveness, coverage rates, and treatment cost estimates adjusted to 2025 values, we projected cases averted and associated cost savings. At the current 10% coverage, ZVL and RZV were estimated to prevent 36269 and 56681 HZ cases and 15988 and 20712 PHN cases, yielding societal cost savings of USD 78.47 million and USD 107.14 million, respectively. Expanding NIP coverage to 70% amplified benefits approximately sevenfold, yielding cost savings of USD 549.34 million (ZVL) and USD 749.98 million (RZV). These results demonstrate the substantial value of zoster vaccination and underscore the need for policy measures to improve vaccine coverage among older adults in South Korea.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e62"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13184655/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147766204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Epidemiological evaluation of cholera outbreak dynamics in conflict-affected Central and Northwestern Tigray, northern Ethiopia: evidence from GEE analysis. 埃塞俄比亚北部受冲突影响的提格雷中部和西北部霍乱暴发动态的流行病学评估：来自GEE分析的证据。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101514

Haftu Gebrehiwot Gebremeskel, Seyoum Desta, Senait Haddis Abebe, Mebrahtom Hafte Amaha, Equbay Gebregziabher Gebru, Goyitom Gebremedhn, Michele Hagos Debesay, Rieye Esayas Belay, Kibrom Gebrehiwot Gebremeskel

{"title":"Epidemiological evaluation of cholera outbreak dynamics in conflict-affected Central and Northwestern Tigray, northern Ethiopia: evidence from GEE analysis.","authors":"Haftu Gebrehiwot Gebremeskel, Seyoum Desta, Senait Haddis Abebe, Mebrahtom Hafte Amaha, Equbay Gebregziabher Gebru, Goyitom Gebremedhn, Michele Hagos Debesay, Rieye Esayas Belay, Kibrom Gebrehiwot Gebremeskel","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101514","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101514","url":null,"abstract":"Cholera remains a major public health concern in conflict-affected Tigray, Ethiopia, where disrupted water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) services and displacement have increased transmission risk. This study analysed outbreak dynamics, attack rates (AR), and predictors of cholera to inform interventions aligned with Ethiopia's Cholera Elimination Plan (2022-2028). A retrospective analysis was conducted on 802 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 25 July to 4 October 2024 across 25 districts in Central and Northwestern Tigray. Data from the Tigray Health Research Institute line list were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, and Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) models. Attack rates were highest in Asgede (357.25/100000) and Endabaguna (88.12/100000). Significant associations were observed with age, sex, occupation, water source, travel history, vaccination, latrine access, and contact history. GEE analysis showed strong intra-cluster correlation (α = 0.949). Higher odds of cholera were associated with males, adults aged 16-45 years, and use of unsafe water sources, while vaccination and latrine availability reduced risk. Strengthening WaSH services, vaccination coverage, surveillance, and targeted risk communication is essential to reduce cholera transmission in Tigray.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e64"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13200026/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147766233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From the field: a case of zoonotic transmission of Giardia duodenalis from wild reindeer? 来自野外——野生驯鹿的十二指肠贾第虫人畜共患传播病例？

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101460

Kjersti Selstad Utaaker, Bjørnar Ytrehus, Tsegabirhan Kifleyohannes, Lucy J Robertson

引用次数: 0

Historical reconstruction of the earliest enterovirus A71 epidemics in Japan in the 1960s. 20世纪60年代日本最早的肠病毒A71流行的历史重建。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-04-20 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101435

Xinhua Chen, Nathanaël Hozé, Margarita Pons-Salort

{"title":"Historical reconstruction of the earliest enterovirus A71 epidemics in Japan in the 1960s.","authors":"Xinhua Chen, Nathanaël Hozé, Margarita Pons-Salort","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101435","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101435","url":null,"abstract":"Enterovirus A71 was first isolated in California in 1969, with the earliest retrospective detection traced back to 1963 in the Netherlands, but its early spread remains unclear. Using age-specific seroprevalence data from children aged 1-10 years in Kawasaki City, Japan, collected annually from 1966-1973, we applied serocatalytic models to estimate annual force of infection during 1959-1973. Several models were tested, incorporating different assumptions about time-varying force of infection, age-dependent susceptibility, and seroreversion, to identify the best fit to the data. Model comparison identified the models with independent annual infection probability or two distinct outbreak periods, both including age-dependent force of infection and seroreversion, as optimal. All top models consistently identified two major transmission periods: 1961-1962 and 1968-1969. The two-outbreak model estimated mean attack rates of 21.8% and 37.8% for the earlier and later outbreaks under seroreversion, and 19.8% and 34.9% under age-dependent force of infection. Our findings provide evidence of enterovirus A71 circulation in Japan during two distinct periods in the 1960s, coinciding with early detections in Europe and the USA, suggesting global distribution by that decade. This study underscores the value of testing archived sera for reconstructing pathogen emergence and spread.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13161800/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147722267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0