Epidemiology and Infection最新文献

Yersinia enterocolitica 2/O:9 outbreak in France linked to raw cow milk cheese, 2024. 2024年，法国爆发与生牛奶奶酪有关的小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌2/O:9疫情。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-29 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102209

Sabrina Tessier, Cyril Savin, Elodie Terrien, Joëlle Remonnay, Pierre Pamart, Nathalie Fredriksen, Laura Guichard, Carine Martins, Emmanuelle Houard, Christine Girardin, François Clinard, Edith Laurent, Joël Mossong, Olivier Retel, Martine Denis, Anne-Sophie Le Guern, Fanny Chereau

{"title":"Yersinia enterocolitica 2/O:9 outbreak in France linked to raw cow milk cheese, 2024.","authors":"Sabrina Tessier, Cyril Savin, Elodie Terrien, Joëlle Remonnay, Pierre Pamart, Nathalie Fredriksen, Laura Guichard, Carine Martins, Emmanuelle Houard, Christine Girardin, François Clinard, Edith Laurent, Joël Mossong, Olivier Retel, Martine Denis, Anne-Sophie Le Guern, Fanny Chereau","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826102209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268826102209","url":null,"abstract":"Enteric yersiniosis represents the fourth most frequently reported bacterial foodborne zoonosis in Europe and has been responsible for several outbreaks. Infections are primarily caused by Yersinia enterocolitica and, to a lesser extent, by Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Investigation of an outbreak caused by Y. enterocolitica bioserotype 2/O:9 with isolates belonging to a single genomic cluster (0-3 alleles distances mismatch between isolates) identified common exposure to a raw cow's milk cheese, leading to an international product recall. The outbreak affected 167 confirmed cases between 17 September 2024 and 07 March 2025 in France and 5 cross-border cases. Y. enterocolitica isolates belonging to the same genomic cluster were detected in the cheese at the cheese factory and in a milking machine filter of a milk producer. This investigation is a reminder of the risks associated with raw milk cheese consumption. We emphasize the need for producers of milk to identify and prevent critical contamination points for Y. enterocolitica.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e142"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149285918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effectiveness of live-animal and environmental samples for detecting high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in live-bird markets in Southeast Asia, 2015-2022. 2015-2022年东南亚活禽市场高致病性禽流感病毒活体动物和环境样本检测效果分析

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-28 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102246

Brandon Hayes, Gaël Lamielle, MuGyeom Moon, Pawin Padungtod, Pham Thanh Long, Makara Hak, Sothyra Tum, Phouvong Phommachanh, Filip Claes, Timothée Vergne

引用次数: 0

Divide and reduce: systematic review and mathematical modelling of the impact of within-farm compartmentalisation on avian influenza transmission in poultry. 分而治之：系统回顾和数学建模农场内部划分对家禽中禽流感传播的影响。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102350

Sophie Planchand, Christelle Nivoix, Egil A J Fischer, Timothee Vergne, Sébastien Lambert

引用次数: 0

Measles transmission-related epidemiological parameter estimates: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 麻疹传播相关流行病学参数估计：系统回顾和荟萃分析。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826101848

Kusala Pussegoda, Mavra Qamar, Melanie Sterian, Austyn Baumeister, Tricia Corrin, Abhinand Thaivalappil, Lisa A Waddell

{"title":"Measles transmission-related epidemiological parameter estimates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Kusala Pussegoda, Mavra Qamar, Melanie Sterian, Austyn Baumeister, Tricia Corrin, Abhinand Thaivalappil, Lisa A Waddell","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826101848","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826101848","url":null,"abstract":"With the recent resurgence of global measles outbreaks, it is crucial to understand measles transmission dynamics to guide timely and effective public health responses and parameterize infectious disease models for accurate outbreak projections. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive resource of measles transmission-related epidemiological parameters. A search was conducted from inception to 14 May 2024. English and French primary studies of transmission-related epidemiological parameters were included, and standard systematic review methodology was followed. Evidence was synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses and descriptive plots. Subgroup analyses by World Health Organization (WHO) region, population, decade, and quality of reporting were conducted to explore heterogeneity. Between 1910 and 2024, 1 209 estimates across 32 transmission-related epidemiological parameters from 612 studies were reported. Measles was characterized by a pooled incubation period (13.5 days, 95%CI 12.6-14.4; I2 = 95.9%), serial interval (12.4 days, 95%CI 11.5-13.4; I2 = 97.6%), symptom onset to hospitalization (4.8 days, 95%CI 3.7-5.8, I2 = 99.7%), and basic reproduction number median 11.5 (range of 0-57). This work is part of a global epidemic preparedness and response project to establish an accessible living Global Repository of Epidemiological Parameters aimed at reducing duplicative efforts in identifying and summarizing epidemiological parameters.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e141"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149264574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An investigation into post-pandemic ethnic group and deprivation inequalities in influenza and COVID-19 hospitalizations. 流感和COVID-19大流行后住院的种族和剥夺不平等调查

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-26 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102180

Meg Scott, Lucy Browning, Tirion Roberts, Jessica De Boer, Zoe Richardson, Leonardo Gada

{"title":"An investigation into post-pandemic ethnic group and deprivation inequalities in influenza and COVID-19 hospitalizations.","authors":"Meg Scott, Lucy Browning, Tirion Roberts, Jessica De Boer, Zoe Richardson, Leonardo Gada","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826102180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268826102180","url":null,"abstract":"Health system decision-makers need evidence on how modifiable factors contribute to inequalities to inform effective interventions. We examined ethnic group and deprivation inequalities in influenza and COVID-19 hospitalizations in England (2023-2024) among vaccine-eligible individuals, using causal mediation analysis to assess the roles of deprivation, vaccination uptake and comorbidities. For influenza, hospitalization odds were highest among Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups, compared with White British individuals. Deprivation mediated 26% of the total ethnic group effect for the Pakistani group and 41% for the Bangladeshi group, whilst comorbidities contributed little. Ethnic group differences in COVID-19 hospitalizations were minimal in this post-pandemic period. For both infections, the most deprived group had disproportionately high hospitalization compared to the least deprived. For influenza, vaccination uptake mediated 17%-26% of deprivation effects, whilst for COVID-19, there were no meaningful residual deprivation inequalities after including vaccination uptake and comorbidities. Vaccination uptake and deprivation mediate a substantial proportion of inequalities in hospitalization for influenza and COVID-19 in the vaccine-eligible cohort. Improving vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated groups should remain a public health priority.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e139"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149264540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence from seroprevalence surveys accounting for time-varying seroreversion: A fully Bayesian methodology. 考虑时变血清逆转的血清患病率调查估计COVID-19累积发病率：一种完全贝叶斯方法

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102325

Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Mark J Meyer, Daniel Herrera-Esposito, Lucas Böttcher, Maria Lukz, Sydney Cook, Michael A Stoto, John D Kraemer

{"title":"Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence from seroprevalence surveys accounting for time-varying seroreversion: A fully Bayesian methodology.","authors":"Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Mark J Meyer, Daniel Herrera-Esposito, Lucas Böttcher, Maria Lukz, Sydney Cook, Michael A Stoto, John D Kraemer","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826102325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268826102325","url":null,"abstract":"Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning - or seroreversion - biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149243785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The presence of Histoplasma capsulatum in environments from the state of Nayarit, Mexico, reveals a potential risk of infection for human populations. 墨西哥纳亚里特州环境中存在荚膜组织浆体，表明存在人群感染的潜在风险。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-19 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102143

Gabriela Rosario Peña-Sandoval, José Rafael Nolasco-Luna, Evelyn Janeth Aquino-Navarro, Arlette Galván-González, Gabriela Rodríguez-Arellanes, Maria Lucia Taylor

{"title":"The presence of Histoplasma capsulatum in environments from the state of Nayarit, Mexico, reveals a potential risk of infection for human populations.","authors":"Gabriela Rosario Peña-Sandoval, José Rafael Nolasco-Luna, Evelyn Janeth Aquino-Navarro, Arlette Galván-González, Gabriela Rodríguez-Arellanes, Maria Lucia Taylor","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826102143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268826102143","url":null,"abstract":"The Histoplasma capsulatum complex clusters cryptic species with genetic diversities linked to their geographic distribution and virulence. The American continent harbours its highest diversity, making this region the main axis for H. capsulatum spread. Species of this complex cause respiratory-systemic mycosis known as histoplasmosis. Infection occurs through the inhalation of fungal propagules that grow in sites such as caves, mines, and abandoned buildings, where environments rich in organic matter containing micronutrients present in bat and bird guano favour the development of these fungal pathogens. This research was conducted in the state of Nayarit, Mexico, where the combination of environmental factors and the constant occurrence of bats in urban and rural areas contributes to the proliferation of H. capsulatum. The presence of the fungus was detected by nested-PCR using a specific marker (Hcp100) for H. capsulatum, either in guano or in bat organ samples collected in the municipalities of Tepic, Santa María del Oro (SAMAO), and La Yesca, Nayarit. Out of 27 guano samples analysed by nested-PCR, 21 were positive for H. capsulatum, while of the 12 bats studied, only five revealed infections. The fungus was isolated from a lung sample of a nectarivorous bat (Glossophaga mutica) by culture. The results suggest a potential risk to exposed populations, including different specialized workers and tourists who explored bat roosts. Avoiding guano accumulation, restricting access to bat roosts, and implementing bat-exclusion strategies in homes are general recommendations to prevent fungal infections.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149220011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sample size in social contact surveys for epidemic modelling and risk prediction. 用于流行病建模和风险预测的社会接触调查的样本量。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882610212X

Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon

{"title":"Sample size in social contact surveys for epidemic modelling and risk prediction.","authors":"Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon","doi":"10.1017/S095026882610212X","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S095026882610212X","url":null,"abstract":"Social contact surveys, measuring who contacts whom, are widely used for epidemic intelligence and public health decision-making. Despite their widespread use, sample size calculations are not performed. We conducted a review of social contact surveys (2008-2025) to characterize current practice. We characterized the impact of survey size on epidemic metrics using two social contact surveys, the UK Social Contact Survey and POLYMOD (Europe), and two methods. For each dataset and approach, we generated repeated subsamples and calculated the resulting reproduction numbers, characterized their distributions, and measured uncertainty. We identified 107 unique social contact surveys from 57 studies. Sample sizes ranged from 30 to more than 10 000 participants, with a median of 1 438. One quarter of surveys contained fewer than 1 000 participants. Our analysis supports recruiting at least 1 000 participants for general-population social contact surveys used for epidemic modelling. Increasing sample size to 2 000 participants provides worthwhile gains in the precision of epidemic estimates, particularly for analyses using finer age stratification or individual-level approaches. Beyond approximately 3 000 participants, additional improvements in precision were small for the epidemic metrics analysed. This provides a practical balance between precision and participant burden.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e131"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149180190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ethnic inequities in mathematical models for respiratory infectious disease: A systematic review. 呼吸道传染病数学模型中的种族不平等：系统综述。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268826102118

Zoe Kumbaroff, Emily P Harvey, Jesse Whitehead, Dion R J O'Neale

{"title":"Ethnic inequities in mathematical models for respiratory infectious disease: A systematic review.","authors":"Zoe Kumbaroff, Emily P Harvey, Jesse Whitehead, Dion R J O'Neale","doi":"10.1017/S0950268826102118","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268826102118","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 was the most recent pandemic to highlight profound ethnic inequities. However, most mathematical epidemiological models do not adequately represent these inequities, limiting the potential for such models to inform equitable public health responses and interventions. This systematic review identifies mathematical models of infectious respiratory disease transmission that report results by ethnic group and surveys the different mathematical modelling approaches used to attempt to capture ethnicity-related outcomes. Only 28 studies met the inclusion criteria, which is rare relative to the volume of infectious disease modelling literature. The most common model frameworks were compartmental models (11 studies), individual-based models (12 studies), and metapopulation models (5 studies). Across these studies, ethnic heterogeneities were represented directly by incorporating some combination of ethnic group population demographics, ethnicity-specific interaction patterns, and ethnicity-specific disease parameters, or indirectly through spatial differences in interaction patterns or disease transmission. Consideration of ethnicity in mathematical models of disease transmission is in its infancy, with only three of the studies published before 2020, but it has the potential to provide improved evidence for public health action that reduces the epidemic burden and inequities across ethnic groups.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e130"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149180216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Establishing influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity levels in Türkiye using the moving epidemic method and assessing concordance with WHO transmission zones: A sentinel surveillance analysis of ten seasons, 2013-2025. 使用移动流行病方法确定<s:1>基耶病毒的流感流行阈值和强度水平，并评估与世卫组织传播区的一致性：2013-2025年10个季节的哨点监测分析。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882610209X

Eray Ontas

{"title":"Establishing influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity levels in Türkiye using the moving epidemic method and assessing concordance with WHO transmission zones: A sentinel surveillance analysis of ten seasons, 2013-2025.","authors":"Eray Ontas","doi":"10.1017/S095026882610209X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026882610209X","url":null,"abstract":"The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) is the ECDC/WHO-Europe-endorsed approach for establishing influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity levels, yet no positivity-based MEM analysis exists for Türkiye or any country in the WHO Western Asia transmission zone. Weekly influenza positivity rates from FluNet sentinel surveillance were analysed for ten of twelve seasons (2013/2014-2024/2025, excluding two COVID-19 pandemic seasons) using the mem R package with cross-validated optimized slope parameter, and Türkiye's average epidemic curve and thresholds were compared with the Western Asia (excluding Türkiye) and South West Europe zones using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), root mean square deviation (RMSD) and complementary correlation metrics. The epidemic threshold was 10.59% positivity, with intensity thresholds at 42.56% (medium), 60.92% (high), and 71.38% (very high); cross-validated sensitivity was 0.77, specificity 0.88, and Matthews correlation coefficient 0.65. Türkiye's average curve showed higher concordance with Western Asia (CCC=0.890; RMSD=4.22 percentage points) than South West Europe (CCC=0.672; RMSD=12.48) despite similar Pearson correlations (0.922 vs. 0.939), and the Western Asia epidemic threshold (11.50%) closely matched Türkiye's. These first operational MEM thresholds for Türkiye and the first positivity-based thresholds for the Western Asia zone confirm alignment with the current WHO transmission zone classification and support integration into routine surveillance.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"154 ","pages":"e129"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149180211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0