Epidemiology and Infection最新文献

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data. 通过重复联合检测监测 SARS-CoV-2 流行情况：应用于瑞士常规数据。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000876

Julien Riou, Erik Studer, Anna Fesser, Tobias Magnus Schuster, Nicola Low, Matthias Egger, Anthony Hauser

{"title":"Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data.","authors":"Julien Riou, Erik Studer, Anna Fesser, Tobias Magnus Schuster, Nicola Low, Matthias Egger, Anthony Hauser","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824000876","url":null,"abstract":"Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 through reported positive RT-PCR tests is biased due to non-random testing. Prevalence estimation in population-based samples corrects for this bias. Within this context, the pooled testing design offers many advantages, but several challenges remain with regards to the analysis of such data. We developed a Bayesian model aimed at estimating the prevalence of infection from repeated pooled testing data while (i) correcting for test sensitivity; (ii) propagating the uncertainty in test sensitivity; and (iii) including correlation over time and space. We validated the model in simulated scenarios, showing that the model is reliable when the sample size is at least 500, the pool size below 20, and the true prevalence below 5%. We applied the model to 1.49 million pooled tests collected in Switzerland in 2021-2022 in schools, care centres, and workplaces. We identified similar dynamics in all three settings, with prevalence peaking at 4-5% during winter 2022. We also identified differences across regions. Prevalence estimates in schools were correlated with reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (coefficient 0.84 to 0.90). We conclude that in many practical situations, the pooled test design is a reliable and affordable alternative for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142016771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and precipitation with infections from five food-borne bacterial pathogens. 环境温度和降水与五种食源性细菌病原体感染的系统回顾和荟萃分析。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000839

Naveen Manchal, Megan K Young, Maria Eugenia Castellanos, Peter Leggat, Oyelola Adegboye

{"title":"A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and precipitation with infections from five food-borne bacterial pathogens.","authors":"Naveen Manchal, Megan K Young, Maria Eugenia Castellanos, Peter Leggat, Oyelola Adegboye","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000839","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000839","url":null,"abstract":"Studies on climate variables and food pathogens are either pathogen- or region-specific, necessitating a consolidated view on the subject. This study aims to systematically review all studies on the association of ambient temperature and precipitation on the incidence of gastroenteritis and bacteraemia from Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Vibrio, and Listeria species. PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched up to 9 March 2023. We screened 3,204 articles for eligibility and included 83 studies in the review and three in the meta-analysis. Except for one study on Campylobacter, all showed a positive association between temperature and Salmonella, Shigella, Vibrio sp., and Campylobacter gastroenteritis. Similarly, most of the included studies showed that precipitation was positively associated with these conditions. These positive associations were found regardless of the effect measure chosen. The pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the three studies that included bacteraemia from Campylobacter and Salmonella sp. was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI): 1.03, 1.06) for extreme temperature and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) for extreme precipitation. If current climate trends continue, our findings suggest these pathogens would increase patient morbidity, the need for hospitalization, and prolonged antibiotic courses.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142016768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High Campylobacter diversity in retail chicken: epidemiologically important strains may be missed with current sampling methods. 零售鸡肉中弯曲杆菌的高度多样性：目前的采样方法可能会遗漏具有流行病学意义的菌株。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000906

Agata H Dziegiel, Samuel J Bloomfield, George M Savva, Raphaëlle Palau, Nicol Janecko, John Wain, Alison E Mather

{"title":"High Campylobacter diversity in retail chicken: epidemiologically important strains may be missed with current sampling methods.","authors":"Agata H Dziegiel, Samuel J Bloomfield, George M Savva, Raphaëlle Palau, Nicol Janecko, John Wain, Alison E Mather","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824000906","url":null,"abstract":"Campylobacter spp. are leading bacterial gastroenteritis pathogens. Infections are largely underreported, and the burden of outbreaks may be underestimated. Current strategies of testing as few as one isolate per sample can affect attribution of cases to epidemiologically important sources with high Campylobacter diversity, such as chicken meat. Multiple culture method combinations were utilized to recover and sequence Campylobacter from 45 retail chicken samples purchased across Norwich, UK, selecting up to 48 isolates per sample. Simulations based on resampling were used to assess the impact of Campylobacter sequence type (ST) diversity on outbreak detection. Campylobacter was recovered from 39 samples (87%), although only one sample was positive through all broth, temperature, and plate combinations. Three species were identified (Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter coli, and Campylobacter lari), and 33% of samples contained two species. Positive samples contained 1-8 STs. Simulation revealed that up to 87 isolates per sample would be required to detect 95% of the observed ST diversity, and 26 isolates would be required for the average probability of detecting a random theoretical outbreak ST to reach 95%. An optimized culture approach and selecting multiple isolates per sample are essential for more complete Campylobacter recovery to support outbreak investigation and source attribution.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142016769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Prevalence and persistence of Neisseria meningitidis carriage in Swedish university students - CORRIGENDUM. 瑞典大学生脑膜炎奈瑟氏菌携带率和持久性 - CORRIGENDUM。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000840

Olof Säll, Lorraine Eriksson, Idosa Asfaw Berhane, Alexander Persson, Anders Magnuson, Sara Thulin Hedberg, Martin Sundqvist, Per Olcén, Hans Fredlund, Bianca Stenmark, Eva Särndahl, Paula Mölling, Susanne Jacobsson

引用次数: 0

Risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections during COVID-19 pandemic in intensive care patients in a tertiary care centre in Saudi Arabia. 沙特阿拉伯一家三级医疗中心的重症监护患者在 COVID-19 大流行期间发生中心静脉相关血流感染 (CLABSI) 的风险。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000736

Majid M Alshamrani, Aiman El-Saed, Omar Aldayhani, Abdulaziz Alhassan, Abdullah Alhamoudi, Mohammed Alsultan, Mohammed Alrasheed, Fatmah Othman

{"title":"Risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections during COVID-19 pandemic in intensive care patients in a tertiary care centre in Saudi Arabia.","authors":"Majid M Alshamrani, Aiman El-Saed, Omar Aldayhani, Abdulaziz Alhassan, Abdullah Alhamoudi, Mohammed Alsultan, Mohammed Alrasheed, Fatmah Othman","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000736","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000736","url":null,"abstract":"This retrospective study compared central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates per 1 000 central line days, and overall mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in adult, paediatric, and neonatal ICU patients at King Abdul-Aziz Medical City-Riyadh who had a central line and were diagnosed with CLABSI according to the National Healthcare Safety Network standard definition. The study spanned between January 2018 and December 2019 (pre-pandemic), and January 2020 and December 2021 (pandemic). SARS-CoV-2 was confirmed by positive RT-PCR testing. The study included 156 CLABSI events and 46 406 central line days; 52 and 22 447 (respectively) in pre-pandemic, and 104 and 23 959 (respectively) during the pandemic. CLABSI rates increased by 2.02 per 1 000 central line days during the pandemic period (from 2.32 to 4.34, p < 0.001). Likewise, overall mortality rates increased by 0.86 per 1 000 patient days (from 0.93 to 1.79, p = 0.003). Both CLABSI rates (6.18 vs. 3.7, p = 0.006) and overall mortality (2.72 vs. 1.47, p = 0.014) were higher among COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 patients. The pandemic was associated with a substantial increase in CLABSI-associated morbidity and mortality.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141199754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

International travel as a risk factor for gastrointestinal infections in residents of North East England. 国际旅行是英格兰东北部居民胃肠道感染的一个风险因素。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000827

Nicola K Love, Claire Jenkins, Noel McCarthy, Kate S Baker, Petra Manley, Deborah Wilson

{"title":"International travel as a risk factor for gastrointestinal infections in residents of North East England.","authors":"Nicola K Love, Claire Jenkins, Noel McCarthy, Kate S Baker, Petra Manley, Deborah Wilson","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000827","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000827","url":null,"abstract":"International travel is thought to be a major risk factor for developing gastrointestinal (GI) illness for UK residents. Here, we present an analysis of routine laboratory and exposure surveillance data from North East (NE) England, describing the destination-specific contribution that international travel makes to the regional burden of GI infection.Laboratory reports of common notifiable enteric infections were linked to exposure data for cases reported between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2022. Demographic characteristics of cases were described, and rates per 100,000 visits were determined using published estimates of overseas visits from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) International Passenger Survey (IPS).About 34.9% of cases reported international travel during their incubation period between 2013 and 2022, although travel-associated cases were significantly reduced (>80%) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2013 and 2019, half of Shigella spp. and non-typhoidal Salmonella infections and a third of Giardia sp., Cryptosporidium spp., and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections were reported following travel. Rates of illness were highest in travellers returning from Africa and Asia (107.8 and 61.1 per 100,000 visits), with high rates also associated with tourist resorts like Turkey, Egypt, and the Dominican Republic (386.4-147.9 per 100,000 visits).International travel is a major risk factor for the development of GI infections. High rates of illness were reported following travel to both destinations, which are typically regarded as high-risk and common tourist resorts. This work highlights the need to better understand risks while travelling to support the implementation of guidance and control measures to reduce the burden of illness in returning travellers.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141154332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis and forecasting of syphilis trends in mainland China based on hybrid time series models. 基于混合时间序列模型的中国大陆梅毒趋势分析与预测

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000694

Zhen D Wang, Chun X Yang, Sheng K Zhang, Yong B Wang, Zhen Xu, Zi J Feng

{"title":"Analysis and forecasting of syphilis trends in mainland China based on hybrid time series models.","authors":"Zhen D Wang, Chun X Yang, Sheng K Zhang, Yong B Wang, Zhen Xu, Zi J Feng","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000694","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000694","url":null,"abstract":"Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141154327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A large cryptosporidiosis outbreak associated with an animal contact event in England: a retrospective cohort study, 2023. 英格兰与动物接触事件相关的大规模隐孢子虫病爆发；一项回顾性队列研究，2023 年。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000591

Lewis Peake, Megan Bardsley, Samantha Bartram, Shireen Bharuchi, Josh Howkins, Guy Robinson, André Charlett, Rachel Chalmers, Sarah Bird, Nick Young

{"title":"A large cryptosporidiosis outbreak associated with an animal contact event in England: a retrospective cohort study, 2023.","authors":"Lewis Peake, Megan Bardsley, Samantha Bartram, Shireen Bharuchi, Josh Howkins, Guy Robinson, André Charlett, Rachel Chalmers, Sarah Bird, Nick Young","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000591","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000591","url":null,"abstract":"Development of gastrointestinal illness after animal contact at petting farms is well described, as are factors such as handwashing and facility design that may modify transmission risk. However, further field evidence on other behaviours and interventions in the context of Cryptosporidium outbreaks linked to animal contact events is needed. Here, we describe a large outbreak of Cryptosporidium parvum (C. parvum) associated with a multi-day lamb petting event in the south-west of England in 2023 and present findings from a cohort study undertaken to investigate factors associated with illness. Detailed exposure questionnaires were distributed to email addresses of 647 single or multiple ticket bookings, and 157 complete responses were received. The outbreak investigation identified 23 laboratory-confirmed primary C. parvum cases. Separately, the cohort study identified 83 cases of cryptosporidiosis-like illness. Associations between illness and entering a lamb petting pen (compared to observing from outside the pen; odds ratio (OR) = 2.28, 95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI) 1.17 to 4.53) and self-reported awareness of diarrhoeal and vomiting disease transmission risk on farm sites at the time of visit (OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.84) were observed. In a multivariable model adjusted for household clustering, awareness of disease transmission risk remained a significant protective factor (adjusted OR (aOR) = 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.78). The study demonstrates the likely under-ascertainment of cryptosporidiosis through laboratory surveillance and provides evidence of the impact that public health messaging could have.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141154326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Barriers to vaccine acceptance in the adult population of mainland Finland, 2021 - ERRATUM. 2021 年芬兰本土成年人接受疫苗的障碍 - ERRATUM。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000621

Mervi Lasander, Kimmo Elo, Katja Joronen, Timothée Dub

引用次数: 0

Household transmission of human metapneumovirus and seasonal coronavirus. 人类偏肺病毒和季节性冠状病毒的家庭传播。

IF 2.5 4区医学

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000517

Cristalyne Bell, Cecilia He, Derek Norton, Maureen Goss, Guanhua Chen, Jonathan Temte

{"title":"Household transmission of human metapneumovirus and seasonal coronavirus.","authors":"Cristalyne Bell, Cecilia He, Derek Norton, Maureen Goss, Guanhua Chen, Jonathan Temte","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000517","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000517","url":null,"abstract":"We analyzed data from a community-based acute respiratory illness study involving K-12 students and their families in southcentral Wisconsin and assessed household transmission of two common seasonal respiratory viruses - human metapneumovirus (HMPV) and human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 (HCOV). We found secondary infection rates of 12.2% (95% CI: 8.1%-17.4%) and 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8%-25.7%) for HMPV and HCOV, respectively. We performed individual- and family-level regression models and found that HMPV transmission was positively associated age of the index case (individual model: p = .016; family model: p = .004) and HCOV transmission was positively associated with household density (family model: p = .048). We also found that the age of the non-index case was negatively associated with transmission of both HMPV (individual model: p = .049) and HCOV (individual model: p = .041), but we attributed this to selection bias from the original study design. Understanding household transmission of common respiratory viruses like HMPV and HCOV may help to broaden our understanding of the overall disease burden and establish methods to prevent the spread of disease from low- to high-risk populations.","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141070685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0