Gabrielle Elizabeth Kelly, Stefano Petti, Norman Noah
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study analyzed standardized excess mortality due to specific causes during the Covid-19 pandemic across 33 European countries, using Eurostat data (2016-2021) and Our World in Data databases. Causes included circulatory and respiratory diseases, neoplasms, transport accidents, and "other" causes (e.g., diabetes, dementia, ill-defined conditions). Additional variables such as vaccination rates, economic and health indicators, demographics, and government stringency measures were also examined. Key findings include: (1) Most European countries (excluding Central and Eastern Europe), recorded lower than expected excess mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and transport accidents. Ireland had the lowest excess respiratory mortality in both 2020 and 2021; (2) Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey showed significant positive excess mortality from "other" causes, potentially linked to public health restrictions, with Turkey as an exception; (3) Regression analysis found that higher human development index and vaccination rates were associated with lower excess mortality. Policy Implications are: (1) Statistically significant positive or negative cause-specific excess mortality may indicate future health trends; (2) The pandemic and government stringency measures negatively affected mortality from "other" causes; (3) Strengthening health system resilience, investing in digital medicine, directing aid to countries with weaker systems, and supporting disadvantaged groups are key recommendations.
本研究使用欧盟统计局数据(2016-2021年)和Our World in data数据库,分析了33个欧洲国家在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间因特定原因导致的标准化超额死亡率。原因包括循环系统和呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤、交通事故和“其他”原因(如糖尿病、痴呆、疾病不明确)。还审查了其他变量,如疫苗接种率、经济和健康指标、人口统计和政府严格措施。主要发现包括:(1)大多数欧洲国家(不包括中欧和东欧)记录的循环系统和呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤和交通事故造成的超额死亡率低于预期。爱尔兰在2020年和2021年的呼吸系统超额死亡率最低;(2)克罗地亚、塞浦路斯、马耳他和土耳其显示出可能与公共卫生限制有关的“其他”原因导致的显著超额死亡率,但土耳其是个例外;(3)回归分析发现,人类发展指数和疫苗接种率越高,超额死亡率越低。政策影响包括:(1)统计上显著的正因或负因超额死亡率可能表明未来的健康趋势;(2)大流行和政府的严格措施对“其他”原因造成的死亡率产生了负面影响;(3)加强卫生系统复原力、投资数字医学、向卫生系统较弱的国家提供援助以及支持弱势群体是主要建议。
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.