1990-2021年中国结核病疾病负担变化趋势及预测分析

IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Shun-Xian Zhang, Jin-Xin Zheng, Yu Wang, Wen-Wen Lv, Jian Yang, Ji-Chun Wang, Zhen-Hui Lu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

结核病(TB)在中国仍然是一个重要的公共卫生问题。使用2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究的数据,我们分析了1990年至2021年结核病的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、患病率(ASPR)、死亡率(ASMR)和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)的趋势。在此期间,hiv阴性结核病的ASIR (AAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: -2.39, -2.28)和ASMR (AAPC = -0.56%, 95% CI: -0.62, -0.59)显著下降。具体而言,药物敏感结核病(DS-TB)的ASIR和ASMR均有所下降,而耐多药结核病(MDR-TB)的ASIR和ASMR略有下降。相反,广泛耐药结核病(XDR-TB)在ASIR和ASMR中均呈现上升趋势。结核病合并艾滋病毒感染(HIV- ds -TB、HIV- mdr -TB、HIV- xdr -TB)近年来呈上升趋势。分析还发现艾滋病毒阴性结核病的asir和asmr与社会人口指数(SDI)呈负相关。从2022年到2035年的预测表明,广泛耐药结核病、HIV-DS-TB、hiv -耐多药结核病和hiv -广泛耐药结核病的ASIR和ASMR将继续增加。广泛耐药结核和艾滋病毒-结核合并感染的负担不断增加,对中国的结核病控制提出了持续的挑战。迫切需要有针对性的预防和控制战略,以减轻这一负担并进一步降低结核病相关的发病率和死亡率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of tuberculosis in China, 1990-2021.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of tuberculosis in China, 1990-2021.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of tuberculosis in China, 1990-2021.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of tuberculosis in China, 1990-2021.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health concern in China. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for TB from 1990 to 2021. Over this period, HIV-negative TB showed a marked decline in ASIR (AAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: -2.39, -2.28) and ASMR (AAPC = -0.56%, 95% CI: -0.62, -0.59). Specifically, drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) showed reductions in both ASIR and ASMR, while multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) showed slight decreases. Conversely, extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) exhibited upward trends in both ASIR and ASMR. TB co-infected with HIV (HIV-DS-TB, HIV-MDR-TB, HIV-XDR-TB) showed increasing trends in recent years. The analysis also found an inverse correlation between ASIRs and ASMRs for HIV-negative TB and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Projections from 2022 to 2035 suggest continued increases in ASIR and ASMR for XDR-TB, HIV-DS-TB, HIV-MDR-TB, and HIV-XDR-TB. The rising burden of XDR-TB and HIV-TB co-infections presents ongoing challenges for TB control in China. Targeted prevention and control strategies are urgently needed to mitigate this burden and further reduce TB-related morbidity and mortality.

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来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
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