Epidemiology and Infection最新文献

{"title":"Measles and rubella seroprevalence in adults using residual blood samples from health facilities and household serosurveys in Palghar District, Maharashtra, India, 2018 - 2019.","authors":"Christine Prosperi, Alvira Z Hasan, Amy K Winter, Itta Krishna Chaaithanya, Neha R Salvi, Sanjay L Chauhan, Ragini N Kulkarni, Abhishek Lachyan, Poonam Gawali, Mitali Kapoor, Vaishali Bhatt, Ojas Kaduskar, Gururaj Rao Deshpande, Ignacio Esteban, Sabarinathan Ramasamy, Velusamy Saravana Kumar, Shaun A Truelove, Muthusamy Santhosh Kumar, Jeromie W Vivian Thangaraj, Lucky Sangal, Sanjay M Mehendale, Gajanan N Sapkal, Nivedita Gupta, Kyla Hayford, William J Moss, Manoj V Murhekar","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001389","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001389","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Residual blood specimens collected at health facilities may be a source of samples for serosurveys of adults, a population often neglected in community-based serosurveys. Anonymized residual blood specimens were collected from individuals 15 - 49 years of age attending two sub-district hospitals in Palghar District, Maharashtra, from November 2018 to March 2019. Specimens also were collected from women 15 - 49 years of age enrolled in a cross-sectional, community-based serosurvey representative at the district level that was conducted 2 - 7 months after the residual specimen collection. Specimens were tested for IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses. Measles and rubella seroprevalence estimates using facility-based specimens were 99% and 92%, respectively, with men having significantly lower rubella seropositivity than women. Age-specific measles and rubella seroprevalence estimates were similar between the two specimen sources. Although measles seropositivity was slightly higher among adults attending the facilities, both facility and community measles seroprevalence estimates were 95% or higher. The similarity in measles and rubella seroprevalence estimates between the community-based and facility serosurveys highlights the potential value of residual specimens to approximate community seroprevalence.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e161"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626445/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictive model for genital tract infections among men and women in Ghana: An application of LASSO penalized cross-validation regression model.","authors":"Michael Yao Ntumy, John Tetteh, Stephen Aguadze, Swithin M Swaray, Emilia Asuquo Udofia, Alfred Edwin Yawson","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001444","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001444","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To enhance the capacity for early and effective management of genital tract infections at primary and secondary levels of the healthcare system, we developed a prediction model, validated internally to help predict individual risk of self-reported genital tract infections (sGTIs) at the community level in Ghana. The study involved 32973 men and women aged 15-49 years from three rounds of the Ghana Demographic Health Survey, from 2003 to 2014. The outcomes were sGTIs. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalized regression with a 10-fold cross-validation model to 11 predictors based on prior review of the literature. The bootstrapping technique was also employed as a sensitivity analysis to produce a robust model. We further employed discriminant and calibration analyses to evaluate the performance of the model. Statistical significance was set at <i>P</i>-value <0.05. The mean±standard deviation age was 29.1±9.7 years with female preponderance (60.7%). The prevalence of sGTIs within the period was 11.2% (95% CI = 4.5-17.8) and it ranged from 5.4% (95% CI = 4.8-5.86) in 2003 to 17.5% (95% CI = 16.4-18.7) in 2014. The LASSO regression model retained all 11 predictors. The model's ability to discriminate between those with sGTIs and those without sGTIs was approximately 73.50% (95% CI = 72.50-74.26) from the area under the curve with bootstrapping technique. There was no evidence of miscalibration from the calibration belt plot with bootstrapping (test statistic = 17.30; <i>P</i>-value = 0.060). The model performance was judged to be good and acceptable. In the absence of clinical measurement, this prediction tool can be used to identify individuals aged 15-49 years with a high risk of sGTIs at the community level in Ghana. Frontline healthcare staff can use this tool for screening and early detection. We, therefore, propose external validation of the model to confirm its generalizability and reliability in different population.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e160"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11648505/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The predictive values of C-reactive protein-neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio for the risk of refractory <i>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</i> pneumonia in children: a retrospective cohort study.","authors":"Xiaoli Chen, Shanhu Wang, Hailun Cai, Xiaojiao Xia","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001134","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001134","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This cohort study evaluated the associations of C-reactive protein-neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (C-NLR) and lymphocyte-CRP ratio (LCR) with refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP), and the predictive values of C-NLR and LCR for RMPP and prolonged fever in children based on 389 children with MPP. The associations of NLR, C-NLR, and LCR with RMPP and prolonged fever were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. C-NLR was correlated with an increased risk of RMPP in children [odds ratio (OR) = 3.459, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.598-7.491]. A higher risk of RMPP was identified in the C-NLR > 29.9 group (OR = 2.885, 95% CI: 1.599-5.203). LCR > 1584.2 was associated with a decreased risk of RMPP (OR = 0.500, 95% CI: 0.282-0.887). Increased risk of prolonged fever in children was identified with the increase of C-NLR (OR = 5.913, 95% CI: 2.335-14.972) or NLR (OR = 2.413, 95% CI: 1.689-3.446). The AUCs of C-NLR, LCR, and NLR for predicting RMPP were 0.630, 0.623, and 0.608, respectively. In conclusion, C-NLR was associated with increased RMPP risk in children and had good value for predicting RMPP and prolonged fever in children.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e158"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11648507/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Genetically identified <i>Salmonella typhimurium</i> outbreak linked to a rural Butcher's Shop, February-March 2018, North East England.","authors":"Nicola Love, Anaïs Painset, Heather Aird, Hayley Coleman, Shirley Sorrell, Claire Stoker, Petra Manley, Deborah Wilson","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001547","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001547","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Between February and April 2018, <i>Salmonella typhimurium</i> within a unique 5-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) address was isolated from 28 cases with links to a small rural area of Northeast England, with five cases prospectively identified by whole genome sequencing (WGS). Infections had a severe clinical picture with ten cases hospitalized (36%), two cases with invasive disease, and two deaths reported. Interviews determined that 24 cases (86%) had been exposed to a local independent butcher's shop (Butcher A).A case-control study using controls recruited by systematic digit dialling established that cases were 68 times more likely to have consumed cooked meat from Butcher A (Adjusted OR 68.1; 95% CI: 1.9-2387.6; <i>P</i> = 0.02). <i>Salmonella typhimurium</i> genetically highly related to 28 of the outbreak cases was also isolated from a sample of cooked meat on sale in the premises.Epidemiological and microbiological investigations suggest this outbreak was likely associated with the consumption of ready-to-eat foods supplied by the implicated butcher. A relatively large number of cases were involved despite the rurality of the food business, with cases resident across the Northeast and Yorkshire identified using WGS, demonstrating the benefit of timely sequencing information to community outbreak investigations.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e154"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626450/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A scoping review on the community dividend resulting from testing and treating hepatitis C infection in people living in detention.","authors":"Eszter Kiss-Farina, Chizoba Esio-Bassey, Emma Plugge, Nick De Viggiani","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001419","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001419","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A scoping review was conducted to map out sources, types, characteristics of evidence that substantiate the existence of a community dividend arising from testing and treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in people living in detention - where community dividend is defined as the benefit of prison-related intervention for general population health. Joanna Briggs Institute methodology guidance was used. Literature search was done in EMBASE, Scopus, ASSIA, UWE library, CINAHL Plus, and Medline to find studies published in any country, any language between January 1991 and June 2022. PRISMA ScR flow chart mapped out the number of records identified, included, and reasons for exclusion. Data were extracted and charted in Excel. The findings were systematically reported by charting table headings then synthesized in the discussion. Quality assessment was carried out. The descriptive analysis demonstrated economic, clinical, and epidemiological domains to the community dividend in long-term health expenditure savings, reduction in HCV-related disease sequelae, increase in survival, improvement in quality of life, and reduction in infection transmission, most of which are realized in the community following release. Therefore, targeting marginalized populations affected by HCV could expedite the elimination effort, reduce inequalities, and have a positive impact on the wider population.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e159"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626460/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A nationwide cohort study on pneumonia infections among agriculture and healthcare workers in Taiwan.","authors":"Erik Pieter de Jong, Chi-Hsin Sally Chen, Wei-Chi Lin, Chia-Yu Chang, Chang-Chuan Chan","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001304","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001304","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Bacterial infection risk in work environments has been extensively reported for healthcare workers, while this risk is rarely researched in other occupations. This study aimed to identify occupational environments in Taiwan's agricultural and healthcare industries with elevated bacterial infection risks by comparing risks for general bacterial infections and pneumonia. Using labour and health insurance claim data from 3.3 million workers (January 2004-December 2020), a retrospective cohort was constructed to estimate occupational infection risks with Cox regression and the Anderson-Gill extension. Significantly elevated hazard ratios were found for workers in vegetable growing, crop cultivation service, mushroom growing, flower growing, and fruit growing, ranging from 1.13 to 1.39 for general bacterial infections and 1.68 to 3.06 for pneumonia infections. In afforestation and the inland fishing industry, pneumonia risk was significantly elevated with, respectively, 1.87 and 1.21. In the healthcare section, especially workers in residential care services and residential care services for elderly stand out regarding their pneumonia risk, with significant hazard ratios of 3.49 and 1.75. The methods used in this study were proven to be effective in identification of occupation environments at risk and can be used in other settings. These findings call for prioritization of bacterial infection prevention by occupation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e156"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626447/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A web-based dynamic nomogram for estimating talaromycosis risk in hospitalized HIV-positive patients.","authors":"Xu Li, Zhongsheng Jiang, Shenglin Mo, Xiaohong Huang, Tao Chen, Peng Zhang, Linghua Li, Bin Huang, Yanqiu Lu, Ying Wu, Jiaguang Hu","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001456","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001456","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Our study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to assess talaromycosis risk in hospitalized HIV-positive patients. Prediction models were built using data from a multicentre retrospective cohort study in China. On the basis of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, we collected data from 1564 hospitalized HIV-positive patients in four hospitals from 2010 to 2019. Inpatients were randomly assigned to the training or validation group at a 7:3 ratio. To identify the potential risk factors for talaromycosis in HIV-infected patients, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. Through multivariate logistic regression, we determined ten variables that were independent risk factors for talaromycosis in HIV-infected individuals. A nomogram was developed following the findings of the multivariate logistic regression analysis. For user convenience, a web-based nomogram calculator was also created. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination in both the training and validation groups [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.883 vs. 0.889] and good calibration. The results of the clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the model. Clinicians will benefit from this simple, practical, and quantitative strategy to predict talaromycosis risk in HIV-infected patients and can implement appropriate interventions accordingly.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e153"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626453/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global epidemiology of serogroup Y invasive meningococcal disease: a literature review.","authors":"Myint Tin Tin Htar, Jamie Findlow, Paul Balmer, David Swerdlow","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001535","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001535","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Serogroup epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is constantly evolving, varying by time and location. Surveillance reports have indicated a rise in meningococcal serogroup Y (MenY) in some regions in recent years. This systematic literature review explores the evolving epidemiology of MenY IMD globally based on review of recent articles and national surveillance reports published between 1 January 2010 and 25 March 2021. Generally, MenY incidence was low (<0.2/100,000) across all ages in most countries. The reported incidence was more frequent among infants, adolescents, and those aged ≥65 years. More than 10% of all IMD cases were MenY in some locations and time periods. Implementation of vaccination evolved over time as the rise in MenY IMD percentage occurred. Cases decreased in countries with quadrivalent vaccine programs (e.g., United Kingdom, the Netherlands, United States, and Australia), whereas the MenY burden increased and made up a large proportion of cases in areas without vaccine programs. Continuous monitoring of epidemiologic changes of IMD is essential to establish MenY burden and for implementation of prevention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e157"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11648504/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142784728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identification of risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in domestic poultry in Mali using the GIS-MCDA approach.","authors":"Idrissa Nonmon Sanogo, Maxime Fusade-Boyer, Sophie Molia, Ousmane A Koita, Christelle Camus, Mariette F Ducatez","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001390","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824001390","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mali is a country where little information is known about the circulation of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in poultry. Implementing risk-based surveillance strategies would allow early detection and rapid control of AIVs outbreaks in the country. In this study, we implemented a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method coupled with geographic information systems (GIS) to identify risk areas for AIVs occurrence in domestic poultry in Mali. Five risk factors associated with AIVs occurrence were identified from the literature, and their relative weights were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Spatial data were collected for each risk factor and processed to produce risk maps for AIVs outbreaks using a weighted linear combination (WLC). We identified the southeast regions (Bamako and Sikasso) and the central region (Mopti) as areas with the highest risk of AIVs occurrence. Conversely, northern regions were considered low-risk areas. The risk areas agree with the location of HPAI outbreaks in Mali. This study provides the first risk map using the GIS-MCDA approach to identify risk areas for AIVs occurrence in Mali. It should provide a basis for designing risk-based and more cost-effective surveillance strategies for the early detection of avian influenza outbreaks in Mali.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e152"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626446/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142767154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population.","authors":"Flavio Finger, Joseph Lemaitre, Stanley Juin, Brendan Jackson, Sebastian Funk, Justin Lessler, Eric Mintz, Patrick Dely, Jacques Boncy, Andrew S Azman","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000888","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000888","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Most infections with pandemic <i>Vibrio cholerae</i> are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100 infections per case). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"152 ","pages":"e149"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11626459/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142767155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}