Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Water resources evaluation and driving factor analysis in nine provinces of Western China based on water footprint theory","authors":"Feng Liu ,&nbsp;Chen Yue ,&nbsp;Jianfei Ma ,&nbsp;Sijia Guo ,&nbsp;Long Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Western China is characterized by scarce rainfall and fragile ecological environments. The quantity and utilization of water resources determine the region’s development prospects. Previous studies have assessed water resource changes in this region using the water footprint concept but struggled to quantify actual water consumption, resulting in double counting of blue water and gray water. This study applies the virtual water footprint theory to integrate water footprint and water stress indicators from 2015 to 2023. It establishes a multi-dimensional water resource evaluation system, and uses the LMDI method to identify driving factors. Results show an uneven spatial distribution of per capita water footprint, with virtual water footprint accounting for 67.01% to 86.60% of total water resource consumption. And the results of this method are overall 30% to 40% smaller. Overall water stress is manageable, but water supply–demand conflicts are significant in Ningxia. Economic and technological effects are the main positive and negative driving factors of the study area’s water footprint, respectively. Thus, industrial upgrading and technological innovation could alleviate these regions’ water resource constraints in multiple ways. Our findings indicate weak sustainable water use capacity in the nine western provinces (regions), providing a scientific basis for optimizing western China’s water resource allocation and devising differentiated water-saving policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113457"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term tracking of urban structure and analysis of its impact on urban heat stress: a case study of Xi’an, China","authors":"Kaipeng Huo,&nbsp;Rui Qin,&nbsp;Jingyuan Zhao,&nbsp;Xuan Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization has rapidly transformed the urban thermal environment, significantly impacting the daily lives of urban residents and socio-economic activities. Therefore, analyzing the long-term changes in urban structure and the urban thermal environment is of great importance. This study utilizes the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and remote sensing tools, employing Landsat and Sentinel series satellite imagery, and introduces the LCZ classification system to identify and study the dynamic changes in the urban structure of Xi’an City and its central Yanta District in 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2023. The WRF-SLUCM model is used to conduct mesoscale climate simulations for the central area of Xi’an, with WBGT as the thermal stress indicator. Pearson correlation analysis is employed to explore the long-term relationship between the thermal environment and urban structure in the study area.</div><div>The results show that from 2009 to 2023, the area of built-up land types in Xi’an rapidly increased. The expansion trend is characterized by the rapid spread of LCZ4 to the northern and southern parts of the city, accompanied by a large-scale reduction of LCZ6. The shape and area of the high-temperature zones in Yanta District did not change significantly. However, from 2009 to 2023, the proportion of open high-rise, open mid-rise, and dispersed buildings in Yanta District continued to increase, while the proportion of compact high-rise, compact mid-rise, single-layer dense buildings, and heavy industrial buildings continued to decrease. This indicates a trend of increasing height and decreasing density in the urban structure of the central area of Xi’an over time. Numerical simulation results show that over time, temperature, wind speed, and WBGT in Yanta District exhibited a downward trend, while humidity increased. The average daily temperature decreased by 0.35 °C, average humidity increased by 0.34 g/kg, average wind speed decreased by 0.36 m/s, and average WBGT decreased by 0.25 °C. Correlation analysis results indicate that LCZ7, LCZ8, LCZ10, and LCZE are significantly positively correlated with urban heat stress, while LCZA, LCZD, and LCZG are significantly negatively correlated with WBGT. LCZ8, LCZ10, LCZA, and LCZG have the most significant impact on WBGT, with correlation coefficients of 0.61, 0.44, −0.46, and −0.50, respectively. In future urban planning and development, increasing building height, reducing building density, and decreasing impervious surfaces can improve the comfort and safety of the urban climate. The findings of this study can provide reference for future urban planning and promote the sustainable development of Xi’an.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113418"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How does the water use efficiency of keystone species act on the stand spatial structure and species diversity in a water-scarce karst forest?","authors":"Yingqun Chen ,&nbsp;Xuerong Shao ,&nbsp;Shuo Wang ,&nbsp;Yi Jiang ,&nbsp;Lipeng Zang ,&nbsp;Guangqi Zhang ,&nbsp;Qingfu Liu ,&nbsp;Danmei Chen ,&nbsp;Fangjun Ding ,&nbsp;Mingzhen Sui","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the mechanism of species coexistence remains a prominent topic in ecology, particularly those unique ecosystems. Karst forests, shaped by distinctive geological and hydrological conditions, are characterized by fragile structures and hyper-diverse species assemblages due to water scarcity and habitat heterogeneity. The effects of limited water resources on forest structure and species diversity were investigated across 20 plots in the Maolan Natural Reserve. Water use efficiency (WUE) was quantified using isotopic approaches for keystone species. Significant differences in WUE were observed between evergreen and deciduous keystone species. Topographic factors predominantly influenced the WUE of evergreen species, while soil nutrients were the primary drivers for deciduous species. Additionally, topography impacted species diversity through modifications in the WUE of evergreen species and niche overlap, whereas soil nutrients primarily influenced the stand spatial structure. The results highlight the pivotal role of evergreen species in maintaining the structural stability of evergreen-deciduous mixed forests under resource constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113444"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban bird diversity conservation plan based on the MaxEnt model and InVEST model: A case study of Jinan, China","authors":"Huixuan Yang ,&nbsp;Haoyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yiran Wang ,&nbsp;Xin Jia ,&nbsp;Ling Hao ,&nbsp;Ke Jin ,&nbsp;Jing Song","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to long-standing disturbance by human activities, urban natural habitats have been seriously degraded, and biodiversity is under serious threat. Scientific evaluation of the conservation efficiency of protected areas within cities and identification of biodiversity conservation hotspots and conservation vacancy areas are of great significance to the sustainable development of urbanization. In this study, we collected bird data by field investigation in Jinan City in September of each year from 2020 to 2022 and supplemented the survey data with the online database. We used the MaxEnt and InVEST models to calculate the bird diversity and habitat quality hotspots, respectively, and compared them with the boundaries of protected areas. The results showed that there were 14 orders, 35 families, 53 genera, and 66 species of birds that participated in the MaxEnt model of this study. Land cover, soil, and mean diurnal range are the main environmental variables affecting bird distribution in Jinan City. The core areas for bird diversity conservation in Jinan City cover an area of 218.86 km², mainly in wetlands (51.24 %) and woodlands (26.50 %). The overlap rate between nature reserves and core areas in Jinan City is only 20.73 %, leaving serious protection gaps, which are the key areas to be protected in the future. Finally, we provide suggestions for the nature reserve system optimization and ecological protection. This study improves the accuracy of identifying bird conservation priority areas and conservation vacancy areas in Jinan City, and provides a scientific basis for the protection and effective management of urban biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113463"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental DNA as a tool for soil health monitoring and unveiling new ecological frontiers","authors":"Yuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Weijun Lu ,&nbsp;Kaihang Xing ,&nbsp;Fen Guo ,&nbsp;Qingping Du ,&nbsp;Xinfei Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zongyao Qian ,&nbsp;Feilong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113438","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113438","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil health is essential for sustainable agricultural practices, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem functioning. Recent advancements in environmental DNA (eDNA) technology have revolutionized soil health monitoring by enabling sensitive, non-invasive assessments of soil biodiversity. With the widespread application of eDNA technology in soils, the demand for standardized methods has increased, which determines the comparability of eDNA datasets across studies. Here, we conducted a systematic literature review of 723 peer-reviewed papers on soil eDNA published between January 2001 to September 2023, and emphasized key methodologies, challenges, and emerging trends in the field. We observed a rapid increase in the use of eDNA for soil health, with more than 700 publications on soil eDNA methods since 2001, and an annual growth rate of over 20% since 2017. eDNA has been successfully applied to detect a wide range of taxa in soil, including bacteria, fungi, and metazoans, with bacteria being the most frequently studied group, accounting for 43% of total publications. Recent eDNA research has focused on species invasion, plant-microbial interactions, and fertilizer management, with indicator-based methods increasingly employed to assess soil health. As technology and methods advance, we identified the new frontiers in eDNA research, including its role in agricultural practices, soil biodiversity and agricultural land quality improvement. Overall, the integration of eDNA with emerging technologies such as GIS and remote sensing is expected to expand its applications in soil health monitoring, providing real-time, large-scale insights into soil ecosystem health and resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113438"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water system sustainability of China’s Yellow River Basin: A Refactoring and integrated evaluation based on the sustainable development Goal 6","authors":"Xiujing Guan ,&nbsp;Zihua Liu ,&nbsp;Yang Guan ,&nbsp;Wenhao Wu ,&nbsp;Rongguang Shi ,&nbsp;Bing Rong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective water system management is essential for achieving sustainable development in large river basins, yet the interactions among water resources, environment, ecology, and human actions remain inadequately explored. Focusing on the Yellow River Basin, a critical ecological and economic corridor, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of coupling coordination and environmental equity within the water resource-environment-ecology-actions system from 2015 to 2022. Using coupling coordination analysis, and the Gini index, the results reveal a gradual improvement in environmental equity, as evidenced by a decrease in the Gini index from 0.257 to 0.229, indicating a more equitable distribution of water resources. Despite this progress, the coupling coordination degree remains at the “borderline disorder” stage, with significant regional variability driven by disparities in socio-economic development and geographical conditions. Upstream areas demonstrate improved coordination due to enhanced ecological restoration and governance, whereas downstream regions experience greater pressures from industrial growth and population expansion. Structural equation modeling highlights the stabilizing role of water resources in improving water system sustainability, while the effects of water ecology and human actions exhibit region-specific variations. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic relationships within the water system, emphasizing the need for regionally tailored strategies to address disparities, enhance coordination, and integrate ecological restoration with sustainable water management. These findings and the proposed analytical framework offer valuable guidance for advancing water system sustainability in the Yellow River Basin and other large-scale river systems globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113396"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating indicators of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in New York State","authors":"Philip Savoy,&nbsp;Rebecca M. Gorney,&nbsp;Jennifer L. Graham","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113403","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113403","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) are a global concern for aquatic ecosystem and human health. Limited funding for monitoring programs and inconsistent determination of cyanoHAB occurrence present challenges for identifying commonly effective variables for characterizing cyanoHABs and the development of generalized models. We compiled a combination of water quality measurements, lake morphology, climatology, remote sensing data, and observations of cyanoHAB occurrence across New York State and used this dataset to develop two sets of predictive models. The first model predicted chlorophyll <em>a</em>, a common indicator of algal biomass, and assessed the importance of variables for modeled predictions. The most important variables were then used in a second set of models to classify cyanoHAB occurrence. The irradiance attenuation coefficient (<em>K_d</em>), which was estimated from Secchi depth measurements, and total phosphorus were the two most important variables for predicting chlorophyll <em>a</em>. The second model examined several variables for their ability to classify cyanoHAB occurrence. Predicted cyanoHAB occurrence based on thresholds of chlorophyll <em>a</em>, <em>K_d</em>, or total nitrogen all had moderate agreement and were able to correctly classify approximately 70% of observed cyanoHABs. Our analysis indicated that multiple data types were important for predicting chlorophyll <em>a</em> statewide and that simple widely available water quality parameters could classify cyanoHABs occurrence with reasonable accuracy. Identifying variables that can be monitored with increased frequency and decreased latency to detect cyanoHAB occurrence will better inform water managers and provide valuable additional data for further refining predictive models of the likelihood of cyanoHABs occurrence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113403"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143767548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-temporal variations of evapotranspiration and its driving factors on the Mongolian Plateau","authors":"Xiangyue Lv ,&nbsp;Siqin Tong ,&nbsp;Li Mei ,&nbsp;Jinyuan Ren ,&nbsp;Gang Bao ,&nbsp;Xiaojun Huang ,&nbsp;Yuhai Bao ,&nbsp;Dorjsuren Altantuya","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component for understanding global climate change, optimizing water resource management, and analyzing energy cycles. This study based on GLEAM evapotranspiration data, remote sensing vegetation data, and meteorological datasets, utilized Sen’s trend analysis, multiple regression, path analysis, and correlation analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics, primary drivers, and the impact of vegetation changes on ET and its components—soil evaporation (Eb), vegetation transpiration (Et), and interception evaporation from vegetation canopies (Ei) on the Mongolian Plateau. The findings reveal the following: (1) ET exhibits a decreasing spatial gradient from northeast to southwest across the Mongolian Plateau. Over the past four decades, ET and its components have shown an overall increasing trend, with particularly pronounced growth in the western regions. (2) In arid and semi-arid regions, vegetation transpiration (Et) is the primary contributor to ET, while canopy interception evaporation (Ei) contributes the least. Conversely, in humid and sub-humid regions, Et remains the largest contributor, whereas soil evaporation (Eb) exhibits the lowest contribution. (3) Changes in ET and Et are predominantly driven by direct effects of vegetation growth (positive effect) and indirect effects of relative humidity (negative effect). Meanwhile, Ei is primarily influenced by direct effects of precipitation. (4) Over the past 40 years, significant vegetation greening has occurred across the Mongolian Plateau, leading to enhanced ET. Notably, more than 70 % of the region shows a positive correlation between leaf area index (LAI) and ET.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113415"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A health-service-risk framework for evaluating ecological carrying capacity in arid inland river basins: A case study of the Tarim River Basin","authors":"Rongqin Yang,&nbsp;Zhenxia Mu,&nbsp;Zilong Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Qiu,&nbsp;Jing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) serves as a crucial indicator for evaluating the potential of regional ecosystems and informing sustainable development strategies. However, existing research on arid inland river basins often lacks a comprehensive and integrated assessment framework. Therefore, this study proposes a novel ECC evaluation framework based on ecosystem sustainability, incorporating ecosystem health (EH), ecosystem service (ES), and ecological risk (ER). Using the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a case study, the ecological environmental quality index (EEQI) was introduced to validate the reliability of the assessment results, while spatial correlation analysis was employed to confirm the necessity of the framework. The independent and joint effects of the drivers on ECC were analyzed using the optimal-parameter Geodetector model. The results showed that spatial clustering characteristics such as “low carrying-high health” and “low carrying-high service” exist in the TRB. Healthy ecosystems and those providing multiple services are not necessarily capable of carrying, highlighting the need for a comprehensive evaluation of ECC that combines EH, ES, and ER. The ECC evaluation, based on the “health-service-risk” framework, was significantly correlated with the EEQI (correlation coefficient = 0.694–0.770, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05), indicating that the evaluation results were reliable and accurately reflected the actual status of ECC in the TRB. The overall ECC of the TRB is minimal, with regions of low and medium carrying capacity constituting over 76.83 % of the total area. The ECC condition of the TRB gradually improved from 2000 to 2020, with areas of increased carrying capacity averaging about 16.79 % of the total area in each period. The improvements were most evident in mountainous regions. The joint effects of several factors significantly affect ECC more than the independent effects of individual components. Notably, land use intensity and landscape factors increasingly influence ECC status. This study not only provides a valuable reference for the ecological conservation, restoration, and sustainable regional development of the TRB, but also offers a robust framework for ECC assessment in other arid inland river basins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113427"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in future drought characteristics in the Ili River Basin, China, using the new comprehensive standardized drought index","authors":"Zilong Li ,&nbsp;Zhenxia Mu ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Qiu ,&nbsp;Jing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction of a comprehensive drought index and the evaluation of future drought characteristics are important for drought management decisions. In this study, we constructed a new comprehensive drought index (SWCI) that can comprehensively characterize the meteorological-hydrological-agricultural drought characteristics based on the hydro-meteorological factors (precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil water, surface runoff, and underground runoff, etc.) simulated by the VIC model coupled with the CMIP6 GCMs, and by using the D-Vine Copula function. Then, we applied the SWCI index to the Ili River Basin (IRB) and analyzed the change characteristics of comprehensive drought in the study area under the future climate change scenario. The results show that: (1) The spatial downscaling effects of CMIP6 and the runoff simulation effect of the VIC model were better during the historical period (1961–2014), which can provide reliable runoff and hydro-meteorological prognosis data, (2) The SWCI index comprehensively considers the hydro-meteorological factors closely related to the occurrence and evolution of drought, and can monitor the occurrence and development process of drought well. It can comprehensively describe drought characteristics from meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural perspectives, (3) The comprehensive drought intensity and duration decreased in the eastern basin (IRB1) under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. In contrast, the intensity and duration of the whole basin increased under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, with an average increase of at least 7.40 %, 2.14 %, and 13.78 %, respectively, and (4) The drought return period showed significant differences. In the historical period, the return period of moderate and above drought events (S &gt; 1, P &gt; 1, D &gt; 3) in the IRB was longer. In the future period (2025–2078), the drought return period with S &gt; 1, P &gt; 1 and D &gt; 3 was shorter than that in the historical period, with the greatest reduction in the southern (IRB2) and western (IRB3) of basin. Our results suggest that the comprehensive drought risk in the Ili River Basin will increase during the mid-21st century, and relevant defense preparations should be made for high-risk regions (IRB2 and IRB3).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113412"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}