Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Sources and stability of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) on the Loess Plateau: Implications for soil carbon management","authors":"Yizhe Peng ,&nbsp;Asim Biswas ,&nbsp;Jan F. Adamowski ,&nbsp;Xiaofang Zhang ,&nbsp;Yumei Li ,&nbsp;Lu Li ,&nbsp;Yiyang Peng ,&nbsp;Jianjun Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sources and stability of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) fundamentally determine soil carbon dynamics, yet their characteristics across different land use types remain disputed. We investigated the sources and stability of POM and MAOM across afforested land, grassland, and abandoned cropland on China’s Loess Plateau using biomarker approaches (lignin phenols and amino sugars) in combination with ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and analyzed the primary factors influencing them through measuring soil physicochemical properties and microbial communities. Results showed that across all land use types both POM and MAOM were predominantly derived from microbial residues rather than plant inputs, with amino sugar to lignin phenol ratios exceeding 1.5. POM was more stable than MAOM in all land use types, even though MAOM had a significantly higher ratio of alkyl C/O-alkyl C (1.01) than POM (0.84). In all land use types, POM and MAOM in croplands had the lowest sources of lignin and amino sugars, with 47.62 mg kg^‑1 and 75.08 mg kg^‑1 for the former, respectively, and 18.77 mg kg^‑1 and 88.83 mg kg^‑1 for the latter, respectively, and their stability were poorest. The sources of POM were primarily influenced by belowground biomass, whereas those of MAOM were mainly regulated by soil physical properties and bacterial communities. Interestingly, soil total nitrogen emerged as the dominant factor controlling the stability of both fractions. These findings underscore the importance of developing site-specific tailored carbon management strategies, especially POM management strategies, to achieve nature-based solutions to global climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114162"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying the dominant drivers of grassland degradation in Inner Mongolia, China","authors":"Yong Mei ,&nbsp;Batunacun ,&nbsp;Chang An ,&nbsp;Yongsheng Wu ,&nbsp;Yuhai Bao ,&nbsp;Kaixin Liu ,&nbsp;Yu Feng ,&nbsp;Yunfeng Hu ,&nbsp;Chunxing Hai ,&nbsp;Claas Nendel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114161","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114161","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grassland degradation (GD) is a complex, multi-factorial, and multi-dimensional process. Identifying its drivers requires a multi-level approach that integrates dynamic changes, synergistic interactions, and spatial heterogeneity of various factors. Recognising key drivers at the regional level is essential for effective management, as it supports context-specific strategies to curb GD. In this study, we analysed the spatiotemporal dynamics of GD and restoration in Inner Mongolia (1990–2020) at the league/city level based on land-use/land-cover changes. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, we examined ten driving factors categorised into urbanisation, human disturbance, climate, and livelihood. We applied partial order theory and Hasse diagrams to identify the dominant degradation drivers. Our findings revealed the following. (1) From 1990 to 2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2020, GD affected 3.7%, 2.9%, and 3.2% of the study area, respectively, whereas grassland restoration occurred across 3.5%, 3.8%, and 2.5% of the study area, respectively. Grassland restored overall with partial degraded since 1990. (2) Before 2000, human disturbance was the primary driver, influencing 9 of the 12 leagues/cities, followed by climatic factors and urbanisation. After 2000, urbanisation became the dominant driver in most regions. (3) Economic development and land-use strategies evolved through three phases: grassland privatisation and protection (pre-2000), ecological restoration and industrial transformation (2000–2010), and a ‘win-win’ phase balancing protection and economic growth (post-2010). These policies significantly shaped land-use dynamics and key degradation drivers. Therefore, implementing context-specific policy adjustments can effectively contribute to sustainable regional development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114161"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the spatiotemporal dynamics and coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological environment quality in the Aksu Region, Xinjiang","authors":"Juan Li ,&nbsp;Dong Cui ,&nbsp;Imin Bilal","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114163","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114163","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid socio-economic development in Xinjiang has substantially increased the level of urbanization (UL) in the Aksu region, exerting significant impacts on the ecological environment. As a key component of the strategic ecological security pattern in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the Aksu region plays essential ecological roles, including wind prevention, sand fixation, and improvement of living conditions. In this study, UL was assessed from four dimensions: social, spatial, economic, and population. Ecological environmental quality (EEQ) was evaluated using the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model was then applied to explore the spatiotemporal interactions between UL and EEQ from 2005 to 2021. The results show that: (1) UL displayed significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, as well as a moderate shift in its spatial center of gravity. Overall, UL exhibited a significant upward trend. (2) At the county level, EEQ generally improved, with higher quality in the north and lower quality in the south, showing marked hierarchical differences among counties. Regionally, RSEI values increased over time, though the ecological condition remained relatively poor. (3) The CCD between UL and EEQ rose steadily, indicating enhanced coordination, yet regional disparities persisted, with a continued polarization in coordinated development. These findings provide empirical evidence to support sustainable urban development and ecological governance in arid and semi-arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114163"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Altitudinal differentiation of agricultural drought mechanisms in mountains: From climate-vegetation coupling to human co-dominance","authors":"Mingxiao Chen ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Lin ,&nbsp;Shuangyun Peng ,&nbsp;Rui Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiaying Zhu ,&nbsp;Xianchun Pan ,&nbsp;Yuanmei Jiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive to drought, yet a clear understanding of their driving mechanisms remains elusive due to complex topography and monitoring challenges like “green drought”. The elevation-dependent differentiation of drivers and the true role of human activities remain critical and unresolved questions. Using Yunnan, China, as a natural laboratory, we first developed and validated an improved Kernel-based Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (kVTCI), confirming its superior performance against in-situ soil moisture not only locally but across diverse global mountain regions. We then applied a dynamic spatio-temporal Geodetector model to quantify the explanatory power (q-statistic) of drivers and their interactions across different elevation zones from 2004 to 2022. Results reveal a distinct cascade of “driving regimes” along the elevation gradient, transitioning from a “climate-vegetation coupling” regime co-dominated by precipitation and vegetation conditions at low-to-mid elevations (&lt;2500 m) to a “potential evapotranspiration (PET)-human footprint (HFP) co-dominated” regime at high elevations (&gt;2500 m). Critically, we clarified the true pathway of human impact, revealing its direct and interactive roles vary with elevation. While human activities interact with climate drivers across all zones, the HFP emerges as a direct, co-dominant driver of drought patterns in fragile high-elevation ecosystems (&gt;2500 m), with an explanatory power (mean q ≈ 0.26) comparable to that of PET. This study not only provides a globally validated tool for monitoring mountain drought but also establishes a new theoretical framework by quantitatively identifying the “vertical differentiation” of driving mechanisms and revealing the shift in human influence from an interactive to a direct driving role. Our findings underscore the necessity of shifting from one-size-fits-all policies to differentiated adaptation strategies that include the direct regulation of the human footprint in vulnerable alpine regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114174"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145007780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel insights into methanogen responses to total nitrogen variation in subsurface karst caves","authors":"Pengfei Gao ,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Cheng ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Liu ,&nbsp;Ziqi Yang ,&nbsp;Zhilin Zeng ,&nbsp;Lu Li ,&nbsp;Chuntian Su ,&nbsp;Qibo Huang ,&nbsp;Hongmei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Methanogens play a crucial role in Earth’s carbon biogeochemical cycle, and changes in total nitrogen (TN) may have particular effects on methanogenic communities. However, our understanding of the response of cave-dwelling methanogens and methane (CH₄) generation to TN variation remains limited. To address this, we collected weathered rock and sediment samples from three oligotrophic karst caves in southwestern China, and conducted high-throughput sequencing of the methyl coenzyme M reductase alpha subunit (<em>mcrA</em>) gene. We investigated how TN regulates CH₄ production by methanogens, and how TN affects the assembly and network stability of methanogens within the cave ecosystem. Our results indicated that elevated TN levels significantly increased the absolute abundance of methanogens and the relative abundance of core taxa, further enhanced the CH₄ production. This was because TN input alleviated nitrogen limitation in the caves and increased the availability of substrates for CH₄ metabolism by methanogens. Stochastic processes, especially drift and dispersal limitation, governed methanogen assembly. TN mediated the balance between deterministic and stochastic processes, and its increase resulted in a V-shaped pattern of stochastic process contribution. Elevated TN significantly disrupted methanogen network stability. Our study provides new understanding of nutrient-microbe-climate interactions in subsurface ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114169"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145007778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the effects of land use change on carbon balance: a systematic study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China","authors":"Zhuoran Ma ,&nbsp;Jianjun Wu ,&nbsp;Huicai Yang ,&nbsp;Jianhua Yang ,&nbsp;Jianhang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the advancement of economic development, urbanization, and ecological civilization initiatives, land use patterns are undergoing significant changes. The allocation of land resources among urban areas, croplands, and forest/grass ecosystems has substantial impacts on regional carbon balance. Vegetation carbon sequestration and anthropogenic carbon emissions are two critical components of carbon balance, and their distinct formation mechanisms suggest differing roles of land use in each process. However, few studies have systematically explored the impact of land use on carbon balance from both composite and component perspectives. In this study, a dual-layered indicator system is employed to quantify land use and carbon balance. Based on this, a case study is conducted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region following a “characteristic-relationship-strategy” analytical framework. The results reveal that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the intensity of land development driven by human activities increased across BTH, primarily due to the conversion of cropland to urban areas. In contrast, land use intensity declined in the northwestern and northern areas, where cropland was converted to natural vegetation such as forests and grasslands. (2) BTH exhibited a carbon deficit, with carbon emissions exceeding sequestration. However, since 2011, the increasing trend in this deficit has gradually slowed and eventually reversed. (3) Overall, land use changes had a greater impact on vegetation carbon sequestration than on anthropogenic emissions. Specifically, natural vegetation restoration contributed significantly to increased sequestration; croplands in the plains demonstrated considerable carbon sequestration potential; and urban expansion led to substantial carbon emissions. Urban carbon reduction is the key to improving regional carbon balance. (4) Due to differences in natural endowment, economic development levels, and strategic positioning among BTH cities, the spatial association and temporal response of land and carbon variables exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. Tailored and region-specific strategies, supported by coordinated development and scientific land management, are essential to promote low-carbon development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114109"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Restoring plant-animal interactions: The role of the red-billed curassow (Crax blumenbachii) in shaping tree-seedling communities in an Atlantic forest fragment","authors":"Maria Paula Miranda Xavier Rufino ,&nbsp;Carlos Moreira Miquelino Eleto Torres ,&nbsp;Marielos Penã-Claros ,&nbsp;Fabiano Rodrigues de Melo ,&nbsp;Kesleyane Pereira Camilo ,&nbsp;Paulo Henrique Villanova ,&nbsp;Lausanne Soraya de Almeida ,&nbsp;Otávio Miranda Verly ,&nbsp;Walter da Silva Costa ,&nbsp;Jacinto Moreira de Lana ,&nbsp;Peter van der Sleen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The decline of large frugivores negatively affects tropical forests by disrupting plant-animal interactions, particularly seed dispersal. Reintroduction projects aimed at restoring animal populations offer valuable opportunities to study the importance of these interactions. We used a 33-year old reintroduction project to investigate the effect of the frugivorous bird <em>Crax blumenbachii</em> on tree-seedling communities in a Brazilian Atlantic forest fragment. We hypothesized that <em>C. blumenbachii</em> alters forest understory species composition, particularly where the species is most abundant. We also expected that dissimilarity in plant species composition between forest strata would correlate with <em>C. blumenbachii</em> density, with an increase in understory species commonly in their diet. The study was conducted in a 753-ha forest fragment in Minas Gerais, Brazil, using 23 forest inventory plots. We assessed the reintroduced population through demographic censuses and trap camera data, and their diet through fecal analysis. We found that <em>C. blumenbachii</em> density is moderately associated with variation in plant species composition, as indicated by ordination analysis. Additionally, floristic dissimilarity between canopy and understory tended to increases in areas with higher <em>C. blumenbachii</em> density. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe an increase in the abundance of diet plant species in the understory. This may be due to a mismatch between faeces composition, rich in early-successional species, and floristic sampling areas, located in shaded old-growth forest. Despite the modest effects observed, our findings underscore the challenges of detecting vegetation-level responses to species reintroductions and highlight the importance of integrative approaches for understanding and restoring plant-animal interactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114178"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiscale spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of water supply–demand imbalance in the Yangtze River economic belt","authors":"Xiao Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Kang ,&nbsp;Yan Jiang ,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water resource management is critical to addressing sustainable development challenges. While existing studies often focus on the overall water supply–demand balance, few have examined its seasonal variability and spatial heterogeneity at multiple scales. Even rarer are studies that incorporate both water quantity and quality in assessing supply–demand balance. This study presents a high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment of water supply–demand imbalance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), considering both water quantity and quality. A machine learning approach, specifically random forest modeling, was used to quantify the relative contributions of land use, climate, topography, vegetation, and socio-economic factors to the imbalance. The results show significant spatial and seasonal mismatches: 20.99 % of the basin experiences water deficits, with the most severe imbalances in developed regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Anhui, primarily driven by water quality constraints. Integrating water quality data in Yunnan and Hubei expanded deficit areas by 49.11 % and 7.12 %, respectively. Winter saw the highest proportion of deficits (57.35 %), while summer had the lowest (1.17 %). At the grid scale, cultivated land area was the key factor; at the city scale, forest cover played a crucial role; and at the provincial scale, built-up land had the strongest impact on water quality imbalance. These findings highlight that water supply and demand imbalances result from complex environmental, social, and economic factors varying by scale and season. Effective management must consider spatial differences and both water quantity and quality to ensure sustainable water security in the YREB.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114139"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the decoupling mechanisms and nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities","authors":"Jianpeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Luming Lei ,&nbsp;Yujin Mu ,&nbsp;Min Liu ,&nbsp;Dadao Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decoupling carbon emissions from economic development is crucial for sustainable development and achieving carbon peaking and neutrality goals. However, previous studies primarily assume linear relationships between influencing factors and carbon emissions, with limited attention to nonlinear effects at the urban scale. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions across 232 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2022. Using the Tapio decoupling model, we analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, as well as their spatiotemporal variations. Additionally, an XGBoost-SHAP model is applied to uncover nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions. The results show that, over the past 23 years, total and per capita carbon emissions have increased, while carbon emission intensity has declined. Northern cities, particularly in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin (HBOY) urban agglomeration and Northeast China, exhibit higher emissions and intensity compared to southern cities. From 2000 to 2022, over 94 % of cities achieved decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions, though most were classified as weak decoupling. The proportion of cities achieving strong decoupling increased from 20 % to 40 % over three phases. Expansive negative decoupling and expansive coupling cities are concentrated in the HBOY region and Northeast China. Key determinants of carbon emissions include GDP, population size, industrial structure, and energy intensity. GDP and energy intensity have near-linear positive effects, while industrial structure, green patents, and environmental regulations show inverted U-shaped relationships. Conversely, population size, environmental protection expenditures, environmental rights trading exhibits a U-shaped trend This study highlights the nonlinear effects of various factors on emissions and offers insights for emission reduction strategies in diverse regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114157"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal variation in carbon flux and the driving mechanisms in the grassland ecosystem in a mountain region of Northwest China","authors":"Qingqing Hou,&nbsp;Xiaojun Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon flux is generally influenced by climate, soil, and vegetation factors, with intrinsic relationships existing among these factors. However, few studies have analyzed the effects of these influencing factors on seasonal variations in carbon flux. In the current study, the regional carbon flux (gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE)) of the grassland ecosystem was upscaled using a long-term dataset of carbon flux sites in the Qilian Mountains based on a random forest model. Furthermore, correlation analysis and a piecewise structural equation model were used to identify the driving factors of seasonal carbon fluxes. Our findings indicated that GPP and ER of the grassland ecosystem were highest in the summer and showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2022. The grassland ecosystem acted as a carbon sink in the summer, with an increase in carbon sequestration capacity, while it acted as a carbon source in the spring and autumn (NEE &gt; 0). The trade-off between the different impacts of climate, soil, and vegetation factors on GPP and ER explained the seasonal variation in grassland NEE. Leaf area index had a positive effect on spring NEE. Soil moisture was the most important factor regulating variations in NEE during summer and autumn, having a negative effect on summer NEE and a positive effect on autumn NEE. The influence of atmospheric aridity conditions on NEE was greater than that of water supply conditions, and their impact paths on NEE changes were different. This study underscores the urgent need for analysis of factors influencing grassland carbon flux and its components at the seasonal scale, while also providing important information on the variations in carbon fluxes in the grassland ecosystem of the Qilian Mountains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 114168"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}