Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Exploring the assessment scale for small watersheds in the Han river basin using an integrated ecosystem health index","authors":"Chengrong Peng ,&nbsp;Junyan Wu ,&nbsp;Yong Gao ,&nbsp;Yongde Cui ,&nbsp;Haoyan Sun ,&nbsp;Yintao Jia ,&nbsp;Xiong Xiong ,&nbsp;Zhengfei Li ,&nbsp;Wei Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Han River is a crucial water source for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project; however, it also faces a range of ecological and environmental challenges. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive, index-based assessments that integrate multiple biological groups to evaluate the ecological health of small watersheds. This study selects five representative rivers and develops a comprehensive evaluation index at both the sample scale and the river segment scale. The index incorporates three categories of indicators: aquatic life, water quality and hydrologic regime. To construct the river integrated ecosystem health index (R-IEHI), we first selected multiple biological group indicators, including commonly used evaluation groups such as fish, macrobenthos, and phytoplankton. When constructing the river segment-based assessment index, we first developed the F-<em>S_O/E</em> index based on species richness and river segment length. We then combined this with several other group-specific indices to create a simplified comprehensive evaluation index. The calculation of the R-IEHI score involves first normalizing each individual index, followed by a weighted summation. Both the sample-based and river segment-based indices can significantly distinguish different levels of disturbance intensity. However, since rivers are continuous systems, the river segment-based evaluation index is better suited for assessing the health of small watersheds. The river segment-based comprehensive evaluation index, applicable to other small watersheds in subtropical regions, can provide scientific data to support the protection of the Han River water source area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113372"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic processes dominate bacterial and fungal community assembly in ultra-high-altitude areas of southeast Tibet","authors":"Wenzu Liu ,&nbsp;Zhuonan Hou ,&nbsp;Xinjun Zhang ,&nbsp;Ruihong Wang ,&nbsp;Mengyao Dong ,&nbsp;Daqing Luo ,&nbsp;Yuquan Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microbial community assembly processes have gained increasing attention for addressing global biodiversity loss in recent years, especially their relations to different plant habitats succession. However, it remains scarce in the ultra-high-altitude regions of the plateau. This study explored the contribution of deterministic and stochastic processes in shaping bacterial and fungal communities as well as key factors influencing these processes across five habitats in the southeastern ultra-high-altitude area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results indicated that stochastic processes, particularly dispersal limitation and drift, dominated microbial community assembly across all five successive habitats (talus slope, alpine meadow, alpine shrubland, deciduous broadleaf forest, and mixed needle-broadleaf forest) in this study. Their relative importance varied, with drift increasing (bacterial from 31.03% to 47.13% while fungal from 38.07% to 58.88%) and dispersal limitation decreasing (bacterial from 47.29% to 22.91% while fungal from 48.69% to 33.53%), as habitat succession progresses. Bacterial community exhibited wider niche width and higher phenotypic plasticity, making homogeneous selection more significant in bacterial community compared to fungal community. Core genera made more contributions to microbial community assembly, with bacterial core genera having a greater influence than fungal core genera. Our findings firstly provide insights into the distinctive interaction of microbial community assembly with plant habitats heterogeneity in the ultra-high-altitude mountainous ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113394"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inversion of heavy metal elements in characteristic agricultural areas of Shanxi Province: Application of the airborne multimodular imaging spectrometer","authors":"Hongyu Wang ,&nbsp;Juan Wang ,&nbsp;Wei Zhou ,&nbsp;Rongrong Ma ,&nbsp;Jiangfan Wang ,&nbsp;Tianyu Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113393","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113393","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The heavy metal content in soil is a key factor affecting farmland ecosystems, and high-precision aerial remote sensing is an effective tool for monitoring soil contamination. In this study, the Airborne Multimodular Imaging Spectrometer was used to collect data, which are combined with field soil samples, were analyzed to assess the spectral characteristics of Zn, Fe, and Cu. The original bands are combined into band groups, followed by band selection through the successive projections algorithm and optimum index factor. A random forest model was applied to predict metal concentrations, and model accuracy was verified. The results show that higher metal concentrations correspond to greater spectral reflectance. Spatial distribution analysis revealed that high Zn concentrations were found in the northwestern and south-central ravine areas, while low concentrations were in the southwestern and north-central regions. Fe and Cu had higher concentrations in the northwest and lower concentrations in the central and southern areas. The inversion model showed high accuracy, with R² values of 0.918, 0.934, and 0.917 for Zn, Fe, and Cu, respectively. Overall, the contents of the three elements were low, with recommendations to supplement Fe and Cu in areas growing Scutellaria baicalensis and Rehmannia glutinosa to maintain the quality of specialty crops.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113393"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nonlinear threshold effects of environmental drivers on vegetation cover in mountain ecosystems: From constraint mechanisms to adaptive management","authors":"Bin Qiao ,&nbsp;Xiaoyun Cao ,&nbsp;Hao Yang ,&nbsp;Nai’ang Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaojun Liu ,&nbsp;Bingrong Zhou ,&nbsp;Hang Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiao Liu ,&nbsp;Yipeng Wang ,&nbsp;Zhe Wang ,&nbsp;Ye Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on a nonlinear theoretical framework, this study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in the Qilian Mountains and its environmental constraints, providing scientific support for mountain ecosystem restoration and territorial spatial management. By integrating remote sensing inversion, GIS spatial analysis, and the constraint line model, the following key findings were obtained: (1) Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics: From 2000 to 2023, the FVC in the study area exhibited a fluctuating upward trend (annual growth rate of 0.26 %, <em>R</em>² = 0.5654, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), forming a significant longitudinal gradient pattern. A sharp contrast was observed between the high-coverage areas (FVC &gt; 60 %) in the southeast and the lowcoverage areas in the northwest, where bare land and extremely low to low-coverage regions accounted for 56.25 %. Notably, 54.84 % of the region experienced significant vegetation improvement, with the “greening” effect particularly pronounced in the central and western regions. (2) Topographic Vertical Constraint Mechanism: The altitudinal gradient shaped a four-stage response pattern: in the 2000–2900 m range, vegetation cover increased at a rate of + 1.56 %/100 m, mainly driven by water-heat synergy; in the 2900–4000 m range, accumulated environmental stress reversed the growth trend, leading to a decline of −1.32 %/100 m; in the 4000–4800 m range, thermal constraints intensified sharply, accelerating the decline to −8.01 %/100 m; in the 4800–5800 m range, vegetation approached its survival limit, with the decline rate slowing to −0.57 %/100 m. (3) Climatic Regulation Threshold Effects: Temperature control exhibited a biphasic hump-shaped pattern (<em>R</em>² = 0.9449). In the −15 °C to −7°C range, the FVC gain rate reached 14.22 %/°C; between −7°C and 0 °C, the gain rate decreased to 3.07 %/°C, with 0 °C identified as a critical threshold. Above 0 °C, increasing competition pressure led to a decline in FVC (−0.68 %/°C). Moisture regulation showed a diminishing marginal effect: in the 20–300 mm range, each additional 10 mm of precipitation increased FVC by 2.97 %; in the 300–450 mm range, the marginal gain decreased to 0.88 %; above 450 mm, moisture constraints were lifted, and light-heat conditions became the primary limiting factors. This study identifies critical ecological thresholds of 4000 m altitude, an annual mean temperature of 0 °C, and 300 mm annual precipitation, elucidating the nonlinear response mechanisms of mountain ecosystems. Furthermore, it establishes a multidimensional “topography-climate-management” adaptive regulation framework, providing a scientific paradigm for transitioning ecological restoration from “maximum greenness” to “optimal resilience.”</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113328"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Size spectra assess social-ecological impacts on Amazonian fish assemblages","authors":"Victoria J. Isaac ,&nbsp;Leandro Castello ,&nbsp;Nelson A. Gouveia ,&nbsp;Jansen A.S. Zuanon ,&nbsp;Fernanda A. Martins ,&nbsp;Rivetla Edipo Araujo Cruz ,&nbsp;Rodrigo O. Campos ,&nbsp;Caroline C. Arantes ,&nbsp;Gabriel C. Borba ,&nbsp;Morgana Carvalho de Almeida ,&nbsp;Claudia Pereira de Deus ,&nbsp;Carolina R.C. Dória ,&nbsp;Marilia Hauser ,&nbsp;Carlos E. Freitas ,&nbsp;Tommaso Giarrizzo ,&nbsp;Alexandre P. Hercos ,&nbsp;Giulia C. Lopes Carvalho ,&nbsp;Elineide E. Marques ,&nbsp;Raimundo Nonato G. Mendes-Júnior ,&nbsp;Ualerson Iran Peixoto ,&nbsp;Filipe M. França","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Finding easily accessible indicators to assess the biodiversity conservation is crucial in regions where long-term monitoring data is deficient. This is particularly true for tropical freshwater ecosystems, which house most of the known fish biodiversity and faces multiple natural and anthropogenic threats. Fish sizes serve as a key ecological indicator of ecosystem productivity and responses to environmental changes. Using length measurements of 354,465 fish produced by multiple projects and researchers, we investigated the spatial patterns and main drivers of fish productivity and mortality across 11 widely distributed basins in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, we examined if fish mortality and ecosystem productivity vary among environments, water types, Amazon sampling regions, and landscape metrics. Our findings show that fish size structure vary between water types and sampling regions, with Northern regions of the Amazon Basin exhibiting larger fish sizes and lower mortality than Southern region. Human population demography and forest cover also influenced fish productivity and size structure, affecting complexity and diversity of ecosystem trophic chains. We provide evidence that maintaining at least 75% forest cover is critical for supporting fish fauna size structure, highlighting the importance of considering terrestrial-freshwater links in conservation programs aiming to enhance sustainable fishing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113360"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial mismatch and drivers of carbon sequestration services supply-demand in China","authors":"Qi Pang,&nbsp;Jie Xu,&nbsp;Ying Zhou,&nbsp;Meixin He","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services in China, a critical issue for achieving the country’s “dual carbon” goals of peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Using the Carnegie-Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the carbon emission coefficient method, the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services from 2000 to 2020 were quantitatively assessed. The supply–demand ratio index (SDI) and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were employed to analyze the spatial distribution and intensity of the supply–demand relationship. The results reveal that while the supply of carbon sequestration services exhibited an overall increasing trend, demand steadily grew, leading to a widening mismatch, particularly in the economically developed eastern regions and urban agglomerations. The supply was primarily influenced by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land use/land cover change (LUCC), while demand was closely linked to population density (POP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To further analyze the factors driving this mismatch, the Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Random Forest (RF) model were applied to identify the impact of both natural and human activity factors. SEM highlighted complex causal relationships, while RF captured nonlinear interactions between these variables. The findings emphasize the growing tension between insufficient supply and rising demand for carbon sequestration services in key regions. To mitigate this spatial mismatch and support the “dual carbon” goals, several policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening ecosystem protection, promoting sustainable land management practices, establishing carbon markets, and encouraging broader participation in carbon trading. These strategies aim to address the supply–demand imbalance and contribute to sustainable carbon management in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113389"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on carbon compensation zoning guided by major function zones: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta region","authors":"Rui Shen ,&nbsp;Yinan Yang ,&nbsp;Jialong Xu ,&nbsp;Li Wang ,&nbsp;Yuhang Jiang ,&nbsp;Yujing Xie ,&nbsp;Yuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Observing spatial inequities in carbon dynamics at fine scales is critical for formulating precise zoning policies and emission reduction strategies. However, existing research has paid limited attention to the long-term spatiotemporal evolution of carbon budgets at fine scales, often overlooking comparative differences in natural resource endowments and socio-economic conditions across regions. To address this gap, we developed a “carbon source- carbon sequestration ” quantification model using multi-source data and employed a hierarchical analysis approach to examine carbon budget inequities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region at both grid and county scales. A multidimensional evaluation system was constructed to elucidate the interactions among key indicators, and compensation zoning types were refined based on functional zone positioning. The results reveal that: (1) At the grid scale, carbon emissions transitioned from point-like to patchy agglomeration, while carbon sequestration expanded outward from major mountain ranges, forming multi-scale sequestration surfaces. At the county scale, carbon emissions exhibited a “core-periphery” structure, with carbon sequestration showing a “high in the south, low in the north” spatial heterogeneity. (2) The carbon budget characteristics of functional zones aligned with their designated roles, with greater variability in the concentration index of carbon emissions compared to sequestration. (3) Scale background attributes (SBA) and socio-economic attributes (SEA) exhibited a nonlinear negative correlation, while spatial structure attributes (SSA) positively influenced ecological environment attributes (EEA), particularly in Optimized Development Zones (ODZ). (4) Based on the spatial comparative advantages of attribute indicators, 120 payment zones, 95 balancing zones, and 90 compensation zones were identified, further refined into 10 distinct carbon compensation zoning types integrated with major functional zones. This study provides a more equitable framework for cross-regional carbon compensation through fine-scale analysis and functional zone perspectives, offering scientific support for collaborative emission reduction efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113383"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of stand age on sediment bacterial communities in restored mangrove forests","authors":"Jiayong Lai ,&nbsp;Kishneth Palaniveloo ,&nbsp;Sahadev Sharma ,&nbsp;Rozainah Mohamad Zakaria ,&nbsp;Wee Cheah","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microbes in mangrove sediments provide essential ecological functions, acting symbiotically with their mangrove hosts. Investigating their dynamics in restored mangroves over a chrono-sequence offers valuable indications on how microbial diversity is shaped by both restored mangrove age and environmental factors. In this study, we examined the dynamics of the bacterial community and sediment properties in four <em>Rhizophora apiculata</em> forests restored at different times, as well as the sediments of an intact <em>Avicennia marina</em> forest. The result indicated that higher diversity and abundance in older restored mangroves were supported by higher nutrients in sediment, particularly carbon content (ANOVA, p &lt; 0.01). The most dominant bacterial phylum Proteobacteria, showed decreasing relative abundance with sediment depth, while Chloroflexota exhibited increasing relative abundance. The bacterial community demonstrated a strong correlation with sediment properties, especially salinity and carbon content. Co-occurrence network analysis revealed increasing module counts in younger restored mangrove forests, with stabilised counts observed at the 9 years suggesting established bacterial functional dynamics by this age. Random attack of network analysis also indicated that the 5- and 9-year-old mangrove forests were more fragile, while the 16 year-old mangrove forests displayed lowest resilience due to higher salinity levels. In contrast, the 21-year-old restored mangrove and intact <em>A. marina</em> exhibited robust and well-connected networks. In summary, older <em>R. apiculata</em> restored forests fostered enhanced soil nutrient content, especially surface sediment carbon content, and supported a more stable, diverse bacteria community network.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113316"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiscale synergistic effects of urban green space morphology on heat-pollution: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, China","authors":"Junye Zhang ,&nbsp;Song Hong ,&nbsp;Bin Chen ,&nbsp;Shengbiao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113390","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113390","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban heat island and air pollution issues caused by ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (PM_2.5) pose serious threats to the public health. The synergistic impact of urban green space (UGS) on both seasonal heat and air pollution (heat-pollution) from a multiscale perspective remains a scientific challenge. Land surface temperature (LST), O₃ and PM_2.5 were used as research variables. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) was applied to quantify urban green space morphology (UGSM), and the PLUS model was employed to explore the future spatial patterns of UGS under three scenarios. A multiscale perspective combined with multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to reveal the complex impacts of UGSM on heat-pollution. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the area and aggregation degree in the study area decreased. High values of LST, O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations were primarily distributed in main urban expansion zones. The impact of UGSM on LST, O₃ and PM_2.5 exhibited spatial heterogeneity and scale effect, and the degree of impact increased with scale. Moreover, the overall contribution of UGSM indicators to LST, O₃ and PM_2.5 varied at different scales. On the whole, UGSM effectively mitigate LST. Seasonal analysis reveals that UGSs most significantly regulate LST in summer. UGSM indicators also exhibit seasonal variability in their effects on O₃ and PM_2.5. UGSM optimization strategies targeting to heat-pollution were proposed. This study provides recommendations for improving UGS planning and mitigating the heat-pollution problem in the Greater Bay Area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113390"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving mechanisms and threshold identification of landscape ecological risk: A nonlinear perspective from the Qilian Mountains, China","authors":"Bin Qiao ,&nbsp;Hao Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaoyun Cao ,&nbsp;Bingrong Zhou ,&nbsp;Nai’ang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113342","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment is a core component of spatial governance and regional ecological protection, as well as a fundamental task in ecosystem management. This study uses the Qilian Mountains ecosystem as a case study, innovatively integrating the Geo-Detector model, XGBoost-SHAP model, and constraint line method to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) from a nonlinear perspective between 2000 and 2023. The main findings are as follows: (1) Temporal Evolution Characteristics: The annual variation rate of the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (LERI) was 0.0011 yr&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; (&lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.0861, &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt; = 0.1641), showing weak fluctuations. The proportion of Extremely Low-Ecological Risk Areas and Low Ecological Risk Areas remained stable within the range of 50.56 % to 64.07 %, and the ecological security pattern remained relatively stable. The area of Extremely High Ecological Risk Areas decreased significantly, with an annual reduction rate of −0.0791 × 10&lt;sup&gt;4&lt;/sup&gt; km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; (&lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.5655, &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt; &lt; 0.001), indicating continuous improvement in regional ecological quality. (2) Driving Mechanism Analysis: The Geo-Detector model showed that the primary driving factors, ranked by explanatory power, were Grazing Intensity (GI) (Q = 0.2472), Land Surface Temperature (LST) (Q = 0.2145), Elevation (Q = 0.1605), Annual Precipitation (Q = 0.1546), Downward Shortwave Radiation (DSR) (Q = 0.1032), and Annual Mean Temperature (Q = 0.0942), with a total explanatory power of 80.83 %. The XGBoost-SHAP model identified the top six significant factors as GI (SHAP = 0.0918), Specific Humidity (SH) (SHAP = 0.0454), Annual Precipitation (SHAP = 0.0452), DSR (SHAP = 0.0344), Wind Speed (WS) (SHAP = 0.0259), and Elevation (SHAP = 0.0251), with a total contribution rate of 87.46 %. Interaction analysis revealed that the nonlinear synergistic effect between GI and climate factors was the most significant, particularly the interactions between GI and Annual Precipitation (Q = 0.434) and GI and Elevation (Q = 0.419). (3) Threshold Response Characteristics: Elevation exhibited a concave-downward constraint effect (&lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.7867), with a critical threshold at 4200 m. Beyond this threshold, the constraint intensity on LER increased. A significant threshold inflection point for DSR was found at 2502 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. Climate constraint thresholds revealed that when Annual Precipitation &lt; 200 mm, Mean Temperature &lt; -6°C, and Specific Humidity &lt; 2.8068 g/kg, the constraint effect on landscape risk was enhanced. Grazing Intensity exhibited a dual-threshold response: 3.35 SU/ha was the critical point for rapid increases in landscape risk, while 14.36 SU/ha marked the threshold for abrupt ecological stability loss. Beyond this threshold, the fragmentation of landscape structure sharply increased, significantly r","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 113342"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143686316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}