Ecological Indicators最新文献

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Toward convergence in social-ecological systems resilience assessment: A systematic review and conceptual framework 社会生态系统弹性评估趋同:系统回顾与概念框架
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114792
Hamid Balali , Craig R. Allen , Frank A. Ward , Gholamreza Eslamifar , Alexander Fernald
{"title":"Toward convergence in social-ecological systems resilience assessment: A systematic review and conceptual framework","authors":"Hamid Balali ,&nbsp;Craig R. Allen ,&nbsp;Frank A. Ward ,&nbsp;Gholamreza Eslamifar ,&nbsp;Alexander Fernald","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience is widely used to describe how social-ecological systems (SES) respond to disturbance, yet its assessment remains conceptually fragmented due to diverse definitions, theories, and methods.</div><div>A broad range of approaches, most notably indicator-based and system-based methods, have been applied to assess SES resilience. Existing reviews typically focus on specific sectors, regions, or techniques rather than the coherence of resilience assessment across the SES literature.As a result, there is limited consensus on how resilience should be assessed, and many studies inadequately represent SES dynamics, uncertainty, cross-scale interactions, and the interplay of endogenous and exogenous shocks, reducing comparability across assessments.A systematic literature review was conducted using Google Scholar and the Web of Science Core Collection. From 1335 identified publications, 121 peer-reviewed articles were selected and analyzed to examine how resilience is defined, assessed, and operationalized in SES contexts.The review finds that 59% of studies rely on static assessments, 74% do not explicitly account for uncertainty, and 96% neglect cross-scale dynamics or the interconnectedness of endogenous and exogenous shocks. Indicator-based approaches dominate (63%) but commonly lack standardized measurement criteria.The analysis is limited to identifying conceptual gaps and methodological patterns in existing SES resilience assessments and does not assess the empirical accuracy, predictive performance, or policy effectiveness of specific resilience measures.Rather than proposing new metrics, this study offers a unifying framework to guide more consistent, theoretically grounded SES resilience assessments and support future methodological development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114792"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retraction notice to “An integrated approach for evaluating the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services and ecological risk urban agglomerations in China” [Ecol. Indic. 172 (2025) 113248] “中国城市群生态系统服务功能与生态风险时空动态的综合评价方法”[j] .生态学报。第172(2025)113248号法令]
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114773
Zerong Li , Nawal Abdalla Adam , Sanjar Mirzaliev , Shakhzod Saydullaev , Hua Bai
{"title":"Retraction notice to “An integrated approach for evaluating the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services and ecological risk urban agglomerations in China” [Ecol. Indic. 172 (2025) 113248]","authors":"Zerong Li ,&nbsp;Nawal Abdalla Adam ,&nbsp;Sanjar Mirzaliev ,&nbsp;Shakhzod Saydullaev ,&nbsp;Hua Bai","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114773","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114773"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retraction notice to “Integrating ecological indicators into economic and financial decision-making management” [Ecol. Indic. 174 (2025) 113482] 关于“将生态指标纳入经济金融决策管理”的撤稿通知[Ecol.]第174(2025)条113482]
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114782
Meixi Chen , Nawal Abdalla Adam , Fatima Gulzar , Xiaokun Li , Munira Azlarova , Basu Roos
{"title":"Retraction notice to “Integrating ecological indicators into economic and financial decision-making management” [Ecol. Indic. 174 (2025) 113482]","authors":"Meixi Chen ,&nbsp;Nawal Abdalla Adam ,&nbsp;Fatima Gulzar ,&nbsp;Xiaokun Li ,&nbsp;Munira Azlarova ,&nbsp;Basu Roos","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114782","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114782"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retraction notice to “Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of the coupling relationship between regional urban development and green space ecological quality” [Ecol. Indic. 179 (2025) 114009] 关于“区域城市发展与绿地生态质量耦合关系的时空动态及驱动因素”的撤回通知[Ecol. 2011]。第179(2025)号法令114009]
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114775
Manya Luo , Yujie Zhou , Mammadova Simuzar Sultan , Hakimov Hakimjon , Yang Yu
{"title":"Retraction notice to “Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of the coupling relationship between regional urban development and green space ecological quality” [Ecol. Indic. 179 (2025) 114009]","authors":"Manya Luo ,&nbsp;Yujie Zhou ,&nbsp;Mammadova Simuzar Sultan ,&nbsp;Hakimov Hakimjon ,&nbsp;Yang Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114775","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114775"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147710181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retraction notice to "An integrated framework for assessing the dynamics of urban eco-resilience in China’s urban agglomerations" [Ecol. Indic. 176 (2025) 113647] 对“中国城市群城市生态弹性动态评估的综合框架”的撤回通知[Ecol.]。第176(2025)号法令113647]
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114776
Qiming Yang , Ronghui Zhou
{"title":"Retraction notice to \"An integrated framework for assessing the dynamics of urban eco-resilience in China’s urban agglomerations\" [Ecol. Indic. 176 (2025) 113647]","authors":"Qiming Yang ,&nbsp;Ronghui Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114776","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114776","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114776"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147710182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamics of soil conservation service supply-demand coordination and its driving factors in China 中国土壤保持服务供需协调动态及其驱动因素
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114811
Muqi Xiong , Jialei Li , Ranhao Sun , Youcun Qi
{"title":"Dynamics of soil conservation service supply-demand coordination and its driving factors in China","authors":"Muqi Xiong ,&nbsp;Jialei Li ,&nbsp;Ranhao Sun ,&nbsp;Youcun Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil conservation service (SCS) is critical for maintaining ecological security and achieving sustainable development goals. As China implements ambitious national soil conservation policies, including the “Overall Plan for Major Projects of National Important Ecosystem Protection and Restoration (2021–2035)”, scientifically evaluating the coordination between SCS supply and demand is essential for optimizing resource allocation across diverse landscapes. This study applied an evaluation framework integrating the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and an elasticity coefficient method to analyze supply-demand relationships across China from 1990 to 2019, and constructed a coupling patterns indicator to classify the spatiotemporal dynamics of SCS supply and CCD. Results show that national SCS supply increased by 16.1% while demand rose by 22.6% from the 1990s to the 2010s. Approximately 32% of China's area, identified as hotspot regions (HRs), contributed 94.1% of the national supply increase and 82.1% of the demand increase. Within HRs, average CCD improved from 0.55 to 0.58, with “moderate balance” areas expanding from 30.8% to 39.4%. Coupling patterns analysis revealed that 61.5% of HRs exhibited simultaneous increases in both SCS supply and CCD, while 15.5% displayed increased supply but decreased CCD. Elasticity coefficient analysis identified that rainfall erosivity dominated CCD changes in 66.3% of HRs, whereas vegetation cover and management dominated in 33.7%. These findings provide a scientific foundation for implementing China's differentiated soil conservation policies, demonstrating that supply-side improvements alone are insufficient without integrated demand management, and offering region-specific guidance for prioritizing vegetation restoration in C-factor-dominated areas and climate adaptation in R-factor-dominated regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114811"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal patterns of drought-driven mechanism transition in the mu us Sandy land: A multi-scale observational perspective based on vegetation dynamics 毛乌素沙地干旱驱动机制转变的时空格局:基于植被动力学的多尺度观测视角
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114832
Xue Shang , Zhaoquan He , Wenbo Chen , Xiukang Wang , Yingying Xing , Xiaoze Jin
{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of drought-driven mechanism transition in the mu us Sandy land: A multi-scale observational perspective based on vegetation dynamics","authors":"Xue Shang ,&nbsp;Zhaoquan He ,&nbsp;Wenbo Chen ,&nbsp;Xiukang Wang ,&nbsp;Yingying Xing ,&nbsp;Xiaoze Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates a potential transition in vegetation drought-driving mechanisms within arid and semi-arid regions—from traditional water-supply dominance toward growing atmospheric-demand dominance. Focusing on China's Mu Us Sandy Land (2000−2022), we characterise this transition's spatiotemporal dynamics using multi-source remote sensing data integrated with Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall change detection, moving window regression, and spatial autocorrelation. The key findings are as follows: (1) Significant vegetation greening occurred (NDVI increased at 95.7% of sites), concurrently with stable water supply (SPI) and intensifying atmospheric aridity. This ‘greening-while-drying’ pattern challenges traditional water-supply-centric models. (2) Moving window regression identified a critical transition circa 2012, during which the dominance of the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) strengthened markedly. By 2016, a new regional steady-state had emerged, signifying a gradual transition from “water supply limitation” to “water demand limitation”. (3) Spatial differentiation was pronounced: atmospheric demand-driven zones (26.4%) formed patchy clusters in central-eastern and southern low-elevation areas, while water supply-driven zones (11.2%) were dispersed in eastern and southern regions. (4) Land use and topography jointly moderated this pattern. Forests exhibited the highest sensitivity to atmospheric drought (55.6% atmosphere-driven), in contrast to the more resilient grasslands. Low-elevation areas proved more vulnerable to atmospheric drought stress. The absence of “Coordinated Improvement” and “Water-Limited Degradation” types provides supporting evidence for the mechanism transition, corroborating that historical vegetation degradation is linked to atmospheric drought rather than precipitation decline. These findings necessitate a strategic reorientation in arid-land management: moving from pursuing vegetation coverage alone toward building climate-resilient ecosystems adapted to the “demand-dominant” paradigm.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114832"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the ecological effectiveness of ecological conservation and restoration on the Qinghai Plateau from 2000 to 2020 2000 - 2020年青海高原生态保护与修复生态效果评价
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114804
Quanqin Shao , Meiqi Chen , Jingsong Ge , Li Deng , Tingjing Zhang , Siyu Jin , Fan Yang , Shuchao Liu , Jiangwen Fan , Shan Han , Haibo Huang
{"title":"Assessment of the ecological effectiveness of ecological conservation and restoration on the Qinghai Plateau from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Quanqin Shao ,&nbsp;Meiqi Chen ,&nbsp;Jingsong Ge ,&nbsp;Li Deng ,&nbsp;Tingjing Zhang ,&nbsp;Siyu Jin ,&nbsp;Fan Yang ,&nbsp;Shuchao Liu ,&nbsp;Jiangwen Fan ,&nbsp;Shan Han ,&nbsp;Haibo Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114804","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114804","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has embarked on various ecological initiatives to protect the ecological environment of the Qinghai Plateau, which have achieved positive results. However, ecological restoration is a long-term challenge, necessitating regular assessments of its progress. Such evaluations can provide both theoretical and practical guidance for future regional ecological management. This study developed an evaluation index system comprising six indicators across three ecosystem service categories: supporting, regulating, and provisioning services. Specifically, it proposed the Ecological Restoration Index (ERI) to quantify the ecological effectiveness of ecological conservation and restoration on the Qinghai Plateau from 2000 to 2020. The study also examined the relative contributions of climate factors and human activities to ecosystem changes. This study revealed significant spatial variations in ecological restoration across the Qinghai Plateau. Areas with more advanced ecological restoration were predominantly located in the eastern part, accounting for 60.62% of the plateau. In contrast, ecosystem degradation, which constituted only 2.07% of the plateau, was primarily concentrated in the northern Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, NDVI changes from 2000 to 2020 across 64.36% of the Qinghai Plateau were primarily attributed to climate factors, whereas 14.59% of the region was primarily attributed to human activities. In the future, the limiting effects of natural conditions should be fully considered when formulating strategies for managing the ecological environment through regional zoning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114804"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elevational patterns and thresholds of plant functional traits across China's biomes 中国各生物群系植物功能性状的海拔格局与阈值
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114818
Yujuan Zheng , Chengguang Zhong , Tong Lyu , Jinran Wu , Le Zhang , Jingwen Wang , Jie Gao , Tong Li , Yuchuan Fan , Rajiv Pandey
{"title":"Elevational patterns and thresholds of plant functional traits across China's biomes","authors":"Yujuan Zheng ,&nbsp;Chengguang Zhong ,&nbsp;Tong Lyu ,&nbsp;Jinran Wu ,&nbsp;Le Zhang ,&nbsp;Jingwen Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Gao ,&nbsp;Tong Li ,&nbsp;Yuchuan Fan ,&nbsp;Rajiv Pandey","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elevational gradients integrate coordinated variation in temperature, water availability, and soil conditions, providing a natural experiment for examining large-scale trait–environment relationships. Using a nationwide dataset of 20,774 vascular plant species across China, we quantified elevational patterns in leaf area, plant height, seed size, and cone size, evaluated environmental drivers, and explored potential responses under future climate scenarios. All four traits exhibited significant nonlinear relationships with elevation, with statistically supported breakpoints at approximately 1838 m (leaf area), 2925 m (plant height), 2585 m (seed size), and 2275 m (cone size). Beyond these breakpoints, vegetative traits showed steeper negative scaling with elevation, whereas reproductive traits varied more gradually, suggesting differential sensitivity to high-elevation constraints. Structural equation modeling indicated that trait–environment coupling differed between elevation zones: indirect environmental mediation was more pronounced at low elevations, while direct elevation effects became relatively stronger at high elevations. Scenario-based projections derived from core climatic drivers suggested that vegetative traits may exhibit greater sensitivity to future hydrothermal changes than reproductive traits. Together, these findings highlight elevation-dependent shifts in trait–environment relationships and emphasize trait-specific sensitivities across heterogeneous landscapes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114818"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biotic interactions outweigh direct climate effects in shaping subarctic mountain birch ecosystem: Insights from four decades of integrated monitoring 在形成亚北极山地桦树生态系统中,生物相互作用大于直接的气候影响:来自四十年综合监测的见解
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114806
Anneli Poska , Annika Saarto , Triin Reitalu , Jüri Vassiljev , Olga Lisitsyna , Tommi Andersson , Pekka Helenius , Kai Ruohomäki , Saija Saarni , Timo Saarinen , Otso Suominen , Ilkka Syvänperä , Elina Vainio , Sheila Hicks
{"title":"Biotic interactions outweigh direct climate effects in shaping subarctic mountain birch ecosystem: Insights from four decades of integrated monitoring","authors":"Anneli Poska ,&nbsp;Annika Saarto ,&nbsp;Triin Reitalu ,&nbsp;Jüri Vassiljev ,&nbsp;Olga Lisitsyna ,&nbsp;Tommi Andersson ,&nbsp;Pekka Helenius ,&nbsp;Kai Ruohomäki ,&nbsp;Saija Saarni ,&nbsp;Timo Saarinen ,&nbsp;Otso Suominen ,&nbsp;Ilkka Syvänperä ,&nbsp;Elina Vainio ,&nbsp;Sheila Hicks","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-latitude ecosystems are undergoing rapid climate warming, yet long-term ecological response remain poorly understood due to the scarcity of sustained monitoring records. We analyse a unique 40-year dataset from a subarctic mountain birch (<em>Betula pubescens</em> ssp. <em>czerepanovii</em>) ecosystem in northern Fennoscandia, integrating climate, plant reproduction, insect herbivory, phenology, and large herbivore performance. Mean annual temperature increased by 0.6 °C per decade since 1981. Despite strong warming signal, ecosystem dynamics were dominated by cyclic biotic interactions rather than linear effects of climate warming. Birch reproductive indicators (pollen accumulation rate and catkin production) and reindeer calving success exhibited 2–4-year cycles, while geometrid moth populations showed recurrent ∼10-year outbreak dynamics. While warming weakly correlates with birch reproduction, it is strongly associated with increased moth abundance, establishment of the previously temperature-limited winter moth, and reindeer calving success. Moth outbreaks, combined with reindeer grazing pressure, led to birch defoliation and delayed post-outbreak recovery lasting 6–8 years. Potential positive effect of climate warming on mountain birch reproduction in subarctic ecosystem is, therefore, largely counterbalanced by increased herbivory pressure. Birch flowering and moth larval emergence phenology remained tightly synchronized, with no detectable phenological mismatch under warming. This indicates substantial phenological plasticity, likely reflecting adaptation to historically high interannual climate variability. Our results demonstrate that climate impacts in subarctic ecosystems are best captured by multi-trophic biotic indicators reflecting trophic interactions, disturbance regimes, and species redistribution. We highlight the critical role of long-term monitoring for adaptive ecosystem management planning under continued climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 114806"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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