Qiaoqiao Li , Aizhong Ye , Reshmita Nath , Yuhang Zhang , Junju Zhou
{"title":"未来全球干旱敏感地区将会扩大","authors":"Qiaoqiao Li , Aizhong Ye , Reshmita Nath , Yuhang Zhang , Junju Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113838","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and human activities are intensifying drought conditions, significantly altering drought propagation processes. However, these changes remain insufficiently understood, particularly for typical drought partitions such as humid, drought-sensitive, and arid types of drought propagation partition. Therefore, this study examines the change on these partitions under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to elucidate global drought trends. The results show that the global drought-sensitive area will expand by 1.89 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, which is roughly the size of Sudan (1.88 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). Notably, in South America alone, the drought-sensitive area is projected to increase by 1.27 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, equivalent to the size of Niger. While in South America the humid partition will shrink by 1.45 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, with nearly 60 % transitioning into drought-sensitive areas. Overall, human activities are expected to drive drought partitions in an unfavorable direction, with approximately 3.26 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> will shift from humid-type partition to drought-sensitive areas or from drought-sensitive areas to arid-type partitions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, similar to the size of India (3.29 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). Among all the climate zones, the changes are most notable in the humid and semi-arid regions. Significant transformations in drought propagation patterns are evident in the Great Plains of the United States of America, southern and central Europe, and the Amazon basin in South America, where declining precipitation and intensifying land–atmosphere coupling are the main driving factors. These findings provide critical insights for drought prediction and management in the context of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 113838"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The global drought-sensitive areas will expand in the future\",\"authors\":\"Qiaoqiao Li , Aizhong Ye , Reshmita Nath , Yuhang Zhang , Junju Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113838\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Climate change and human activities are intensifying drought conditions, significantly altering drought propagation processes. However, these changes remain insufficiently understood, particularly for typical drought partitions such as humid, drought-sensitive, and arid types of drought propagation partition. Therefore, this study examines the change on these partitions under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to elucidate global drought trends. The results show that the global drought-sensitive area will expand by 1.89 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, which is roughly the size of Sudan (1.88 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). Notably, in South America alone, the drought-sensitive area is projected to increase by 1.27 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, equivalent to the size of Niger. While in South America the humid partition will shrink by 1.45 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, with nearly 60 % transitioning into drought-sensitive areas. Overall, human activities are expected to drive drought partitions in an unfavorable direction, with approximately 3.26 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> will shift from humid-type partition to drought-sensitive areas or from drought-sensitive areas to arid-type partitions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, similar to the size of India (3.29 × 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). Among all the climate zones, the changes are most notable in the humid and semi-arid regions. Significant transformations in drought propagation patterns are evident in the Great Plains of the United States of America, southern and central Europe, and the Amazon basin in South America, where declining precipitation and intensifying land–atmosphere coupling are the main driving factors. These findings provide critical insights for drought prediction and management in the context of climate change.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11459,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecological Indicators\",\"volume\":\"178 \",\"pages\":\"Article 113838\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecological Indicators\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500768X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Indicators","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500768X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
The global drought-sensitive areas will expand in the future
Climate change and human activities are intensifying drought conditions, significantly altering drought propagation processes. However, these changes remain insufficiently understood, particularly for typical drought partitions such as humid, drought-sensitive, and arid types of drought propagation partition. Therefore, this study examines the change on these partitions under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to elucidate global drought trends. The results show that the global drought-sensitive area will expand by 1.89 × 106 km2, which is roughly the size of Sudan (1.88 × 106 km2). Notably, in South America alone, the drought-sensitive area is projected to increase by 1.27 × 106 km2, equivalent to the size of Niger. While in South America the humid partition will shrink by 1.45 × 106 km2, with nearly 60 % transitioning into drought-sensitive areas. Overall, human activities are expected to drive drought partitions in an unfavorable direction, with approximately 3.26 × 106 km2 will shift from humid-type partition to drought-sensitive areas or from drought-sensitive areas to arid-type partitions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, similar to the size of India (3.29 × 106 km2). Among all the climate zones, the changes are most notable in the humid and semi-arid regions. Significant transformations in drought propagation patterns are evident in the Great Plains of the United States of America, southern and central Europe, and the Amazon basin in South America, where declining precipitation and intensifying land–atmosphere coupling are the main driving factors. These findings provide critical insights for drought prediction and management in the context of climate change.
期刊介绍:
The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published.
• All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices.
• New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use.
• Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources.
• Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators.
• Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs.
• How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes.
• Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators.
• Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.