Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第6页

Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets. 升温1.5°C对极地冰盖来说太高了。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w

Chris R Stokes, Jonathan L Bamber, Andrea Dutton, Robert M DeConto

{"title":"Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.","authors":"Chris R Stokes, Jonathan L Bamber, Andrea Dutton, Robert M DeConto","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w","url":null,"abstract":"Mass loss from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now represents the dominant source of global mean sea-level rise from the cryosphere. This has raised concerns about their future stability and focussed attention on the global mean temperature thresholds that might trigger more rapid retreat or even collapse, with renewed calls to meet the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement and limit warming to +1.5 °C above pre-industrial. Here we synthesise multiple lines of evidence to show that +1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. To avoid this requires a global mean temperature that is cooler than present and which we hypothesise to be closer to +1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower, but further work is urgently required to more precisely determine a 'safe limit' for ice sheets.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"351"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12092291/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144126743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Long term carbon export from mountain forests driven by hydroclimate and extreme event driven landsliding. 水文气候和极端事件驱动的山林长期碳输出。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02382-2

Jamie D Howarth, Sean J Fitzsimons, Adelaine Moody, Jin Wang, Mark H Garnett, Thomas Croissant, Alex L Densmore, Andy Howell, Robert G Hilton

{"title":"Long term carbon export from mountain forests driven by hydroclimate and extreme event driven landsliding.","authors":"Jamie D Howarth, Sean J Fitzsimons, Adelaine Moody, Jin Wang, Mark H Garnett, Thomas Croissant, Alex L Densmore, Andy Howell, Robert G Hilton","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02382-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02382-2","url":null,"abstract":"The export of organic carbon from terrestrial ecosystems by erosion may play a central role in balancing the geological carbon cycle and Earth's climate over millennial timescales. However, constraints on organic carbon yields have come from sampling modern rivers that don't capture variation over decades to millennia driven by changing hydroclimate and erosion during extreme events. Here we use volumetric reconstructions of lake sedimentary fills to generate timeseries of sediment and organic carbon yields from two catchments draining the Southern Alps, New Zealand over the last millennium. The reconstructed yields indicate that earthquake-induced landslides significantly increase sediment and organic carbon yields, contributing to pulsed export that accounts for ~40% of the total. Between extreme events, organic carbon export increased twofold during centuries with a wetter reconstructed climate. Our findings suggest that the link between hydroclimate and organic carbon export may act as a negative feedback in the longer-term carbon cycle.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"432"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12137134/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144246816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Market-based instruments to fund nature-based solutions for flood risk management can disproportionately benefit affluent areas. 以市场为基础的工具为洪水风险管理的基于自然的解决方案提供资金，可以极大地惠及富裕地区。

IF 8.9 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02706-2

Bartholomew Hill, Tim Marjoribanks, Harriet Moore, Lee Bosher, Mark Gussy

{"title":"Market-based instruments to fund nature-based solutions for flood risk management can disproportionately benefit affluent areas.","authors":"Bartholomew Hill, Tim Marjoribanks, Harriet Moore, Lee Bosher, Mark Gussy","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02706-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02706-2","url":null,"abstract":"Market-based instruments, including competitive tenders, are central to funding global environmental restoration and management projects. Recently, tenders have been utilised to fund Nature-based Solutions schemes for Natural Flood Management, with the explicit purpose of achieving co-benefits; flood management and reducing inequities. While multiple studies consider the efficacy of Nature-based Solutions for tackling inequities, no prior research has quantified whether the resource allocation for these projects has been conducted equitably. We analyse two national natural flood management programmes funded through competitive tenders in England to explore who benefits by considering the characteristics of projects, including socio-economic, geographical (e.g. rurality) and flood risk dynamics. Our results suggest that inequity occurs at both the application and funding stages of Nature-based Solutions projects for flood risk management. This reflects wider international challenges of using market-based instruments for environmental resource allocation. Competitive tenders have the potential to undermine the equitable benefits of Nature-based Solutions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"714"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12394074/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144945757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs. 近年来的降雪量减少破坏了帕米尔高原西北部的冰川健康和融水资源。

IF 8.9 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

Achille Jouberton, Thomas E Shaw, Evan Miles, Marin Kneib, Stefan Fugger, Pascal Buri, Michael McCarthy, Abdulhamid Kayumov, Hofiz Navruzshoev, Ardamehr Halimov, Khusrav Kabutov, Farrukh Homidov, Francesca Pellicciotti

{"title":"Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs.","authors":"Achille Jouberton, Thomas E Shaw, Evan Miles, Marin Kneib, Stefan Fugger, Pascal Buri, Michael McCarthy, Abdulhamid Kayumov, Hofiz Navruzshoev, Ardamehr Halimov, Khusrav Kabutov, Farrukh Homidov, Francesca Pellicciotti","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8","url":null,"abstract":"Central Asia hosts some of the world's last relatively healthy mountain glaciers and is heavily dependent on snow and ice melt for downstream water supply, though the causes of this stable glacier state are not known. We combine recent in-situ observations, climate reanalysis and remote sensing data to force a land-surface model to reconstruct glacier changes over the last two decades (1999-2023) and disentangle their causes over a benchmark glacierized catchment in Tajikistan. We show that snowfall and snow depth have been substantially lower since 2018, leading to a decline in glacier health and reduced runoff generation. Remote-sensing observations confirm wider snow depletion across the Northwestern Pamirs, suggesting that a lack of snowfall might be a cause of mass losses regionally. Our results provide an explanation for the recent decline in glacier health in the region, and reinforce the need to better understand the variability of precipitation.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"691"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12404989/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes. 综合火灾管理作为一种适应和减轻火灾制度变化的战略。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9

I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual

{"title":"Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes.","authors":"I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","url":null,"abstract":"Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire prevention, response, and recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, and cultural factors into management strategies. However, Integrated Fire Management remains highly context-dependent, encompassing a wide array of fire management practices with varying degrees of ecological and societal integration. This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"202"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11910340/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143647580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk. 前所未有的英国热浪协调了燃料湿度的驱动因素，造成了极端温带野火的风险。

IF 8.9 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02746-8

Katy Ivison, Kerryn Little, Alice Orpin, Claire M Belcher, Gareth D Clay, Stefan H Doerr, Thomas E L Smith, Roxane Andersen, Laura J Graham, Nicholas Kettridge

{"title":"Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk.","authors":"Katy Ivison, Kerryn Little, Alice Orpin, Claire M Belcher, Gareth D Clay, Stefan H Doerr, Thomas E L Smith, Roxane Andersen, Laura J Graham, Nicholas Kettridge","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02746-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02746-8","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is resulting in more extreme fire weather during major heatwaves. Across temperate Europe, shrub landscapes dominate the area burned, with the moisture content of fuels during these events determining the threat posed. Current controls on the moisture content of temperate fuel constituents and their response to future extreme heatwaves are not known. We took field measurements of live and dead heather (Calluna vulgaris) and organic soil moisture content across the UK over 3 years, including an intensive sampling campaign during the July 2022 heatwave. Here, we show that the fuel moisture content of live fuel is associated significantly with phenological variables, dead fuel only with weather variables, whilst organic-rich ground fuels are more associated with landscape variables. However, during the record 2022 heatwave there was a harmonisation in fuel moisture controls across different fuel constituents, with those controls being driven by weather alone. This caused synchronised extreme dryness outside of current seasonal norms across all fuel constituents at the same time and place. Future intense summer heatwaves can therefore be expected to align the most severe conditions for fire ignition, spread and impact in traditionally non-fire prone regions, producing humid temperate landscapes susceptible to extreme wildfire events.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"727"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12401727/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144991663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental lead risk in the 21st century. 21世纪的环境铅风险。

IF 8.9 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02735-x

Mengli Chen, Ludovica Gazze, Francis J DiTraglia, Reshmi Das, Jerome Nriagu, Yigal Erel, Edward A Boyle, Caroline M Taylor, Dominik Weiss

{"title":"Environmental lead risk in the 21st century.","authors":"Mengli Chen, Ludovica Gazze, Francis J DiTraglia, Reshmi Das, Jerome Nriagu, Yigal Erel, Edward A Boyle, Caroline M Taylor, Dominik Weiss","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02735-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02735-x","url":null,"abstract":"Lead has been central to technological development for centuries; however, its release into the environment and subsequent human exposure pose significant public health risks. The review presented here critically assesses the contemporary environmental lead risk as global lead production and use are rapidly increasing, largely driven by the rising demand for electrification. We show that environmental lead exposure persists today due to legacy contamination, ongoing coal usage, and insufficient protection of workforces during production, use, and recycling of lead-acid batteries and other lead-containing products, particularly in low- and middle- income countries. We estimate that contemporary childhood lead exposure alone leads to an annual global economic loss exceeding $3.4 trillion (2021 US dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity), with pronounced disparities between high- and low- and middle- income countries. To prevent a large-scale resurgence in lead exposure, we identify four critical areas for urgent policy intervention.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"776"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12484081/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145211952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Solid-state ³¹P NMR reveals the biological organophosphorus compounds as the dominant phosphorus species in Saharan dust aerosols. 固体31P核磁共振显示，生物有机磷化合物是撒哈拉沙尘气溶胶中主要的磷种。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w

Kalliopi Violaki, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Claudia Esther Avalos, Pierre Rossi, Ernest Abboud, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes

{"title":"Solid-state 31P NMR reveals the biological organophosphorus compounds as the dominant phosphorus species in Saharan dust aerosols.","authors":"Kalliopi Violaki, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Claudia Esther Avalos, Pierre Rossi, Ernest Abboud, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w","url":null,"abstract":"Phosphorus is a critical nutrient affecting primary productivity across all ecosystems. Many regions worldwide are limited or co-limited by phosphorus availability, which can be alleviated through atmospheric deposition. Dust is known to be a key external source of phosphorus in ecosystems, assumed to be in the form of various insoluble inorganic minerals. We show that this view is largely incomplete and here we present conclusive evidence, that organic phosphorus as diesters, primarily associated with biological materials. Phosphate diesters significantly correlated with soil bacteria found in dust, implying a direct link with microbial soil communities, without excluding the eukaryotic cells. Phosphate diesters in dust, along with abundant alkaline phosphatase, may contribute 70% to daily primary productivity in the eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the potential of organic phosphorus substrates present in dust as airborne microorganisms to impact the biogeochemistry of oligotrophic environments via atmospheric deposition.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"225"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11929610/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143699869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Email outreach attracts the US policymakers' attention to climate change but common advocacy techniques do not improve engagement. 电子邮件外联吸引了美国政策制定者对气候变化的关注，但普通的宣传技巧并不能提高参与度。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02055-0

Riley N Loria, Jessica Pugel, Matthew H Goldberg, Deborah A Halla, Rebecca Bascom, J Taylor Scott, Max Crowley, Elizabeth C Long

{"title":"Email outreach attracts the US policymakers' attention to climate change but common advocacy techniques do not improve engagement.","authors":"Riley N Loria, Jessica Pugel, Matthew H Goldberg, Deborah A Halla, Rebecca Bascom, J Taylor Scott, Max Crowley, Elizabeth C Long","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02055-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02055-0","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most challenging aspects of climate change mitigation today is not identifying solutions but reaching political leaders with climate scientists' existing solutions. Although there is substantial research on climate change communication, research rarely focuses on one of the most impactful groups: policymakers. It is essential to test theoretically sound methods to increase lawmakers' attention to research evidence. In a series of four rapid-cycle randomized controlled email trials (N = 6642-7620 per trial), we test three common and theoretically derived advocacy tactics to increase U.S. policymaker engagement with a climate change fact sheet sent via email (i.e., a norms manipulation, a number focused manipulation, and emotional language manipulation). In all four trials, the control message increased engagement more than messages using advocacy tactics, measured by fact sheet clicks. This demonstrates the importance of testing communication methods within the appropriate populations, especially a population with considerable influence over climate policy.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"76"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11968399/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143794854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Role of evolving sea surface temperature modes of variability in improving seasonal precipitation forecasts. 海温变率模态的演变对改善季节降水预报的作用。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02235-y

Agniv Sengupta, Duane E Waliser, Michael J DeFlorio, Bin Guan, Luca Delle Monache, F Martin Ralph

{"title":"Role of evolving sea surface temperature modes of variability in improving seasonal precipitation forecasts.","authors":"Agniv Sengupta, Duane E Waliser, Michael J DeFlorio, Bin Guan, Luca Delle Monache, F Martin Ralph","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02235-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02235-y","url":null,"abstract":"The value of improving longer-lead precipitation forecasting in the water-stressed, semi-arid western United States cannot be overstated, especially considering the severity and frequency of droughts that have plagued the region for much of the 21st century. Seasonal prediction skill of current operational forecast systems, however, remain insufficient for decision-making purposes across a variety of applications. To address this capability gap, we develop a seasonal forecasting system that leverages the long-term memory of leading global and basin-scale modes of sea surface temperature variability. This approach focuses on characterizing and capitalizing on the spatiotemporal evolution of predictor modes over multiple antecedent seasons, instead of the customary use of predictive information from just the current season. Another distinctive methodological feature is the incorporation of sources of predictability spanning multiple timescales, from interannual to decadal-multidecadal. An evaluation of the forecast system's performance from cross-validation analyses demonstrates skill over core winter precipitation regions-California, Pacific Northwest, and the Upper Colorado River basin. The developed model exhibits superior skill compared to dynamical and statistical benchmarks in predicting winter precipitation. Experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts from the model have the potential to provide critical situational awareness guidance to stakeholders in the water resources, agriculture, and disaster preparedness communities.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"256"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11968401/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143794943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0