Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第6页

Salt marsh litter decomposition varies more by litter type than by extent of sea-level inundation 盐沼枯落物分解因枯落物类型而异，因海平面淹没程度而异

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01855-0

Marie Arnaud, Melissa Bakhos, Cornelia Rumpel, Marie-France Dignac, Nicolas Bottinelli, Richard J. Norby, Philippe Geairon, Jonathan Deborde, Pierre Kostyrka, Julien Gernigon, Jean-Christophe Lemesle, Pierre Polsenaere

{"title":"Salt marsh litter decomposition varies more by litter type than by extent of sea-level inundation","authors":"Marie Arnaud, Melissa Bakhos, Cornelia Rumpel, Marie-France Dignac, Nicolas Bottinelli, Richard J. Norby, Philippe Geairon, Jonathan Deborde, Pierre Kostyrka, Julien Gernigon, Jean-Christophe Lemesle, Pierre Polsenaere","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01855-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01855-0","url":null,"abstract":"Salt marshes are among the most efficient blue carbon sinks worldwide. The fate of this carbon is uncertain due to limited knowledge about organic matter (OM) decomposition processes under sea-level rise. In an in-situ manipulative experiment, we compared salt marsh OM decomposition and quality across simulated sea-level scenarios (by modifying the inundation) and litter types (absorptive root, fine transportive root, leaves, and rhizomes of Halimione portulacoide) for 170 days. The litter decomposition varied only between the inundation treatments with the longest and shortest durations, while the decomposition differed significantly across litter types, with absorptive roots releasing up to 40% less carbon than other litters. Changes in lignin composition were minimal for absorptive roots and were unaffected by sea-level rise scenarios. Our study suggests that (i) current projections of sea-level rise are unlikely to decrease litter decomposition; (ii) separating litter types might lead to better assessments of salt marshes’ OM dynamics. Global estimates of salt marsh organic matter decomposition dynamics can be improved by taking into account the differences in decomposition rates among litter types, according to an in situ manipulative experiment in a French temperate salt marsh","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01855-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Psychological health declined during the post-monsoon season in communities impacted by sea-level rise in Bangladesh 孟加拉国受海平面上升影响的社区季风后季节心理健康水平下降

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01862-1

Sajjad Kabir, Elizabeth Newnham, Ashraf Dewan, Md. Monirul Islam, Takeshi Hamamura

{"title":"Psychological health declined during the post-monsoon season in communities impacted by sea-level rise in Bangladesh","authors":"Sajjad Kabir, Elizabeth Newnham, Ashraf Dewan, Md. Monirul Islam, Takeshi Hamamura","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01862-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01862-1","url":null,"abstract":"Sea level rise affects the long-term psychological health of coastal communities. However, research on long-term and seasonal impacts on vulnerable communities’ psychological health is limited. Here, we explore the effect of sea-level rise on the psychological health of the coastal population in Satkhira and Khulna districts of southwest Bangladesh across two seasons: before monsoon (March to April) and post-monsoon months (October to November) in 2021. We leveraged the longitudinal research that involved 1144 participants. We collected data on psychological health using established scales for distress, depression, anxiety, and stress and also measured environmental factors and resource losses. Results indicate that psychological health, particularly distress, depression, anxiety, and stress, increased during the post-monsoon months in communities more vulnerable to sea-level rise. Highly vulnerable communities showed increased psychological distress post-monsoon. Environmental stressors and resource loss escalated during the post-monsoon period, especially in moderate and highly vulnerable communities. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted support and resilience-building interventions in affected communities to alleviate the psychological health impacts of sea-level rise. In Bangladesh, the vulnerable communities to sea level rise experience an increase in distress, depression, anxiety, and stress due to environmental stressors and resource loss during the post-monsoon months, according to an analysis that uses the survey of 1144 participants and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01862-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region 气候变暖导致的积雪深度对比推动了整个北极-北方地区土壤碳流失的未来轨迹

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1

Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, Adrian Gustafson, Sam S. Rabin, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier

{"title":"Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region","authors":"Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, Adrian Gustafson, Sam S. Rabin, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic-Boreal region is projected to experience spatially divergent trends in snow depth following climate change. However, the impact of these spatial trends has remained largely unexplored, despite potentially large consequences for the carbon cycle. To address this knowledge gap, we forced a customised arctic version of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with daily CMIP6 outputs from a global climate model (MRI-ESM2-0) under three climate scenarios. We find that snow depths increased the most in the coldest, northernmost regions, insulating the soil, which led to increased heterotrophic respiration and reduced carbon residence times. We emphasise the need for improved projections of future snow depth - in particular diverging trends across landscapes - to more accurately simulate the strength of Arctic-Boreal carbon feedbacks and their impact on global climate. In a warming climate, snow depth increases fastest in the coldest Arctic regions, which leads to enhanced respiration and reduced carbon residence times compared to less cold areas, suggest simulations of climate-change scenarios with an Arctic-specific vegetation model.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01838-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimating nutrient stoichiometry and cascading influences on plankton in thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 估算青藏高原恒温湖泊中营养物质的化学计量及其对浮游生物的连锁影响

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01859-w

Ze Ren, Jinlei Yu, Zhenmei Lin, Lixiang Zhang, Mei Wang

{"title":"Estimating nutrient stoichiometry and cascading influences on plankton in thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","authors":"Ze Ren, Jinlei Yu, Zhenmei Lin, Lixiang Zhang, Mei Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01859-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01859-w","url":null,"abstract":"Thermokarst lakes play a critical role in global biogeochemistry. Here we delved into nutrient stoichiometry and its cascading effects on plankton communities across thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings revealed significant variability in nutrient concentrations and stoichiometric ratios in both water and seston, indicating heterogeneous nature of thermokarst lakes. Phytoplankton communities were dominated by cyanobacteria. Zooplankton communities, though simple, varied significantly and responded distinctly to the prevailing nutrient stoichiometry, and particularly shown competitive interactions between copepods and Cladocera. Structural Equation Modeling revealed a complex web of interactions, underscoring the bottom-up influences from nutrient stoichiometry in water to phytoplankton/seston, and finally to zooplankton, although there were no direct relationships between phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. Water nutrient stoichiometry positively affected eukaryotic algae but negatively impacted seston stoichiometry, which. had a negative influence on copepods. Our study highlighted the intertwined relationships between nutrient stoichiometry and plankton communities within thermokarst lakes. Direct sampling of 68 thermokarst lakes across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China suggests significant variability in nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry, as well as complex relationships with plankton communities","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01859-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The unique biogeochemical role of carbonate-associated organic matter in a subtropical seagrass meadow 碳酸盐相关有机物在亚热带海草草甸中的独特生物地球化学作用

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01832-7

Mary A. Zeller, Bryce R. Van Dam, Christian Lopes, Amy M. McKenna, Christopher L. Osburn, James W. Fourqurean, John S. Kominoski, Michael Ernst Böttcher

{"title":"The unique biogeochemical role of carbonate-associated organic matter in a subtropical seagrass meadow","authors":"Mary A. Zeller, Bryce R. Van Dam, Christian Lopes, Amy M. McKenna, Christopher L. Osburn, James W. Fourqurean, John S. Kominoski, Michael Ernst Böttcher","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01832-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01832-7","url":null,"abstract":"The particulate organic matter buried in carbonate-rich seagrass ecosystems is an important blue carbon reservoir. While carbonate sediments are affected by alkalinity produced or consumed in seagrass-mediated biogeochemical processes, little is known about the corresponding impact on organic matter. A portion of particulate organic matter is carbonate-associated organic matter. Here, we explore its biogeochemistry in a carbonate seagrass meadow in central Florida Bay, USA. We couple inorganic stable isotope analyses (δ34S, δ18O) with a molecular characterization of dissolved and carbonate associated organic matter (21 tesla Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry). We find that carbonate-associated molecular formulas are highly sulfurized compared to surface water dissolved organic matter, with multiple sulfurization pathways at play. Furthermore, 97% of the formula abundance of surface water dissolved organic matter is shared with carbonate-associated organic matter, indicating connectivity between these two pools. We estimate that 9.2% of the particulate organic matter is carbonate-associated, and readily exchangeable with the broader aquatic system as the sediment dissolves and reprecipitates. Seagrass-mediated dissolution and reprecipitation of carbonate sediments have consequences for sedimentary organic matter cycling in terms of sulfur content and coupling to dissolved pools, according to an analysis using inorganic stable isotopes combined with molecular characterization.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01832-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ecosystem damage by increasing tropical cyclones 热带气旋增多对生态系统造成的破坏

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01853-2

Colette J. Feehan, Karen Filbee-Dexter, Mads Solgaard Thomsen, Thomas Wernberg, Travis Miles

{"title":"Ecosystem damage by increasing tropical cyclones","authors":"Colette J. Feehan, Karen Filbee-Dexter, Mads Solgaard Thomsen, Thomas Wernberg, Travis Miles","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01853-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01853-2","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is driving an ongoing increase in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While global economic losses are projected to double by 2100, there are no comparable predictions for TC impacts to coastal ecosystems that protect and sustain human lives and livelihoods. Here, rising North Atlantic TC (NATC) activity from 1970 to 2019, influenced by anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, is used to study the ecosystem impacts of intensifying TCs, potentially indicative of broader future climate change scenarios. Analysis of 97 NATC landfalls revealed 891 immediate post-storm impacts on ecosystems, with particularly detrimental effects on mangrove forests. Specifically, NATCs reduced the performance of individual species. Additionally, they altered community structure and processes through impacts on foundation species and their associated organisms. The severity of impacts was directly correlated with NATC landfall intensity (wind speed) for mangroves, whereas changes to waves, surge, sediments, and salinity caused most impacts on coral reefs, salt marshes, seagrass meadows, and oyster reefs (respectively), indicating complex intensity-damage interactions for many ecosystems. The analyses also revealed a positive correlation between very intense NATC activity and ecosystem damages. The research highlights a concerning trend of escalating impacts on coastal ecosystems under rising storm intensities, with the potential to challenge ecosystem resilience. Damage to ecosystem community structure and processes as well as to individual species performance as a result of North Atlantic tropical cyclones show an increasing trend from 1970 to 2019, according to an analysis of post-landfall ecosystem impacts.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01853-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines 近实时故事情节揭示气候变化如何加剧了鲍里斯风暴的极端降雨量

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0

Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Eva Monfort, Thomas Jung, Helge F. Goessling

{"title":"How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines","authors":"Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Eva Monfort, Thomas Jung, Helge F. Goessling","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0","url":null,"abstract":"Disentangling the impact of climate change on environmental extremes is of key importance for mitigation and adaptation. Here we present an automated system that unveils the climate change signal of the day in near-real-time, employing a set of innovative storyline simulations based on a coupled climate model. Its potential to complement probabilistic assessments is showcased for storm Boris, which brought record-breaking rainfall over Central and Eastern Europe in September 2024, leading to devastating floods. Our near-real-time storylines suggest that storm Boris deposited about 9% more rain due to human-induced warming. The area impacted by the same storm’s extreme rainfall (>100 mm) was 18% larger and would continue expanding in a future warmer climate. Results from our prototype storyline system are disseminated publicly via an online tool. The case of Storm Boris demonstrates the potential of near-real-time storylines for rapid evidence-based climate change communication. Rapid and relatable climate change information for the attribution and projection of extreme events such as the devastating rainfall in Europe in September 2024 can be provided with an automated storyline approach within days of the event.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01847-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability triggered by Southern Annular Mode and deep convection 由南环模和深层对流引发的南极海冰十年多变性

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01783-z

Yushi Morioka, Syukuro Manabe, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, William Cooke, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin K. Behera

{"title":"Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability triggered by Southern Annular Mode and deep convection","authors":"Yushi Morioka, Syukuro Manabe, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, William Cooke, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin K. Behera","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01783-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01783-z","url":null,"abstract":"Antarctic sea ice exerts great influence on Earth’s climate by controlling the exchange of heat, momentum, freshwater, and gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Antarctic sea ice extent has undergone a multidecadal slight increase followed by a substantial decline since 2016. Here we utilize a 300-yr sea ice data assimilation reconstruction and two NOAA/GFDL and five CMIP6 model simulations to demonstrate a multidecadal variability of Antarctic sea ice extent. Stronger westerlies associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) enhance the upwelling of warm and saline water from the subsurface ocean. The consequent salinity increase weakens the upper-ocean stratification, induces deep convection, and in turn brings more subsurface warm and saline water to the surface. This salinity-convection feedback triggered by the SAM provides favorable conditions for multidecadal sea ice decrease. Processes acting in reverse are found to cause sea ice increase, although it evolves slower than sea ice decrease. Multidecadal Antarctic sea ice anomalies are preceded by wind anomalies associated with the Southern Annular Mode which may induce upwelling and melting, according to a combined approach using prolonged sea ice reconstructions and coupled model simulations","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01783-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sedimentary facies controlled biogeochemical process of biotic extinction and turnover across the Cambrian SPICE event 寒武纪 SPICE 事件中生物灭绝和更替的沉积面控制生物地球化学过程

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01856-z

Haozhe Wang, Haizu Zhang, Yiman Zhang, Bin Cheng, Qian Deng, Donghui Wang, Guanyu Zhao, Zewen Liao

{"title":"Sedimentary facies controlled biogeochemical process of biotic extinction and turnover across the Cambrian SPICE event","authors":"Haozhe Wang, Haizu Zhang, Yiman Zhang, Bin Cheng, Qian Deng, Donghui Wang, Guanyu Zhao, Zewen Liao","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01856-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01856-z","url":null,"abstract":"The Steptoean positive carbon isotope excursion (SPICE) event, one of the largest carbon cycle perturbations in the Cambrian, coincides with shallow-shelf-fauna extinction and plankton revolution (critical transition of plankton). The event is globally documented, but biogeochemical responses of these biotic evolutions in varying facies environments are not well understood. Here high-resolution paired δ18Ocarb, δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg datasets from varied paleodepth environments in the Tarim Basin, NW China reveal facies-dependent signatures of the event, with globally synchronous patterns but notable intra-basinal variability. Shallow marine facies record the end-Marjuman extinction with a distinct negative δ13Corg excursion prior to the event, while the transitional facies region marks twice positive δ13C excursions corresponding to an asynchronous plankton revolution from shallow and deep areas during the event. The varying isotope responses are interpreted in the context of primary productivity and redox conditions, with deeper basins recording more 13C enriched signals (i.e., higher δ13C) due to greater organic matter preservation under anoxic conditions, compared to the platform area. The biotic extinction, the planktonic revolution and the interaction of organisms along the shallow to deep marine depth gradient were reflected by the significant isotopic shifts recorded during the event, suggesting depth-dependent biogeochemical processes that shaped marine ecosystems. Biogeochemical responses to one of the largest carbon cycle perturbations taking place 497 to 494 million years ago, show variability within sedimentary basins and reflect primary productivity and redox conditions, according to high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotope analyses from the Tarim Basin, China.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01856-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective 从多尺度和全球视角预测 2023/24 年厄尔尼诺现象

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01867-w

Ruikun Hu, Tao Lian, Ting Liu, Jie Wang, Xunshu Song, Hui Chen, Dake Chen

{"title":"Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective","authors":"Ruikun Hu, Tao Lian, Ting Liu, Jie Wang, Xunshu Song, Hui Chen, Dake Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01867-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01867-w","url":null,"abstract":"The 2023/24 El Niño ranks as the second strongest event in the twenty-first century thus far. The event exhibited a two-step warming tendency and two warming centers, which could not be explained by the heat content buildup. Here, by conducting observational analysis and model experiments, we show that the record-breaking pantropical warming in 2023 mitigated this El Niño and confined the warming to the eastern basin, and that a series of westerly wind bursts induced another warming center in the central equatorial Pacific toward the end of 2023. Yet the effects of pantropical forcing and wind bursts coincidentally offset each other, leaving the heat content buildup appearing as the primary cause of the 2023/24 El Niño. Our results not only confirm the essential role of equatorial ocean heat recharge for El Niño development, but also demonstrate the necessity of accounting for multi-scale interactions from a global perspective to predict El Niño. The strong 2023/24 El Niño was affected by heat content buildup, westerly wind bursts, and record-breaking sea surface temperature warming over the tropics, with heat content buildup being the primary cause, according to analysis of observational evidence and model forecast simulations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01867-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0