Latin American Journal of Central Banking最新文献_第3页

Transmission mechanisms in HANK: An application to Chile HANK 的传播机制：在智利的应用

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100125

Benjamín García, Mario Giarda, Carlos Lizama, Ignacio Rojas

{"title":"Transmission mechanisms in HANK: An application to Chile","authors":"Benjamín García, Mario Giarda, Carlos Lizama, Ignacio Rojas","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Households in emerging economies are subject to significant income risk and have low access to financial markets. Leveraging multiple administrative microdata sources, this paper documents significant heterogeneity in asset holdings, income, and income cyclicality across the distribution of Chilean households, as well as considerable income risk. Considering this evidence, we compare the transmission mechanisms between Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian models with search and matching (SAM) and sticky wage frictions (SW), and between one-liquid-asset (OA) and two-asset (TA) specifications. We propose a decomposition of consumption responses into direct, indirect, average, and cross-sectional effects. We show that the transmission mechanisms depend on the labor market setup: in SAM-OA the transmission operates through average and direct effects, while in SW-OA it is through cross-sectional effects. Assets also matter, the transmission in the SW-TA has stronger direct and average effects than SW-OA.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000073/pdfft?md5=79433764c4c97cfc1aab8628e9d513d0&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000073-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140341921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy surprises on the banking sector: The role of the information and pure monetary shocks 货币政策对银行业的意外影响：信息和纯货币冲击的作用

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100127

Felipe Beltrán , David Coble

引用次数: 0

Fiscal dominance and the financial resource curse: The Paradoxes of Plenty and Banking 财政主导与金融资源诅咒：富裕与银行业的悖论

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100131

Collin Constantine

引用次数: 0

GDP nowcasting: A machine learning and remote sensing data-based approach for Bolivia 国内生产总值预测：基于机器学习和遥感数据的玻利维亚方法

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-03-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100126

Osmar Bolivar

引用次数: 0

Labor market transitions in Bolivia during the Covid-19 pandemic 玻利维亚在 Covid-19 大流行期间的劳动力市场转型

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100118

Angélica del Carmen Calle Sarmiento

{"title":"Labor market transitions in Bolivia during the Covid-19 pandemic","authors":"Angélica del Carmen Calle Sarmiento","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a descriptive way, this paper analyzes the transitions in the Bolivian labor market during the Covid19 pandemic to comprehend the patterns and trends of worker transitions across states related to employment, unemployment, temporarily inactive, permanently inactive; also for employed people like salaried, self-employed, unpaid family worker, other and finally for different economic activities. The information used corresponds to the Continuous Employment Survey reported by the National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia which has the virtue of following the same individuals in more than two periods. Labor transition probabilities according to the Markov chain process between the first and third quarter for 2019 and 2020 were obtained and allowed to observe important changes in the Bolivian labor market during the Covid-19 pandemic. Particularly, unemployed persons were in a more vulnerable situation than those who were inactive; however, due to the measures implemented during the peak of the pandemic the probability to flow to inactivity was higher. On the other hand, at first the emergency reduces the possibility for self-employed people to remain in this category; nevertheless, in the following period the self-employed status was an advantageous one.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 2","pages":"Article 100118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266614382300039X/pdfft?md5=4d6150fa785049608ef9cae8c6fd6f88&pid=1-s2.0-S266614382300039X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140052072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Worker reallocation in Italy and Spain after the COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 大流行后意大利和西班牙的劳动力重新分配

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100105

Ángel Luis Gómez , Salvatore Lattanzio

引用次数: 0

The effect of the Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of the future retirees and its fiscal costs Covid 退休金提取和全民保障养老金对未来退休人员收入的影响及其财政费用

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100122

Carlos Madeira

引用次数: 0

A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil 衡量巴西产出缺口的马尔科夫-转换 DSGE 模型

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100121

Eleonora de Oliveira , Andreza A. Palma , Marcelo S. Portugal

{"title":"A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil","authors":"Eleonora de Oliveira , Andreza A. Palma , Marcelo S. Portugal","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap face criticism for being purely statistical and lacking economic theory. Conversely, estimates derived from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models encounter challenges stemming from the assumption of constant parameters over time. This study focuses on estimating the output gap for Brazil, employing a full specified DSGE model that incorporates Markov-Switching elements (MS-DSGE) to account for potential regime shifts. We introduce four model versions, some of which incorporate variations in volatilities and Taylor’s rule parameters. In order to compare our output gap estimate with other approaches, we perform prediction tests, both with the central bank’s reaction function and with the free price inflation Phillips curve. Our results in the first test indicate that the HP (Hodrick–Prescott) filter estimate performs better in the short and mid-term, but the MS-DSGE estimate presented better results in the long run. In the second exercise, no output gap series stands out among the approaches considered. In this context, the estimated output gap from the MS-DSGE framework emerges as a valuable asset within the arsenal available to policymakers, contributing meaningfully to their analytical toolkit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 1","pages":"Article 100121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000036/pdfft?md5=a0ce2a4c1d65904db6ee3b9343027edc&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000036-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139674349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How do adaptive learning expectations rationalize stronger monetary policy response in Brazil? 适应性学习预期如何合理化巴西更强有力的货币政策反应？

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100119

Allan Dizioli, Hou Wang

{"title":"How do adaptive learning expectations rationalize stronger monetary policy response in Brazil?","authors":"Allan Dizioli, Hou Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptative learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in Brazil. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe front-loading monetary policy tightening and easing earlier than the estimated monetary policy rule in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 1","pages":"Article 100119"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000012/pdfft?md5=b0249be0420f4c216a6f04193c48b16d&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000012-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139653985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Are prudent monetary and fiscal policy drivers of FDI inflows? 审慎的货币和财政政策是外国直接投资流入的驱动力吗？

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100120

Helder Ferreira de Mendonça , Bruno Pires Tiberto

引用次数: 0