Latin American Journal of Central Banking最新文献_第2页

Climate change and technology adoption with a large informal sector 大规模非正规部门的气候变化和技术采用

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100147

Miguel Mascarúa, Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez

引用次数: 0

From bottlenecks to inflation: Impact of global supply-chain disruptions on inflation in select Asian economies 从瓶颈到通胀：全球供应链中断对部分亚洲经济体通货膨胀的影响

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100141

Reizle Platitas, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo

引用次数: 0

Navigating high inflation: A joint analysis of inflation dynamics and long-term inflation expectations in Latin America 驾驭高通胀：对拉丁美洲通胀动态和长期通胀预期的联合分析

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100133

Juan Angel Garcia , Ricardo Gimeno

{"title":"Navigating high inflation: A joint analysis of inflation dynamics and long-term inflation expectations in Latin America","authors":"Juan Angel Garcia , Ricardo Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The return of high inflation in Latin America (and worldwide) since 2021 has renewed concerns about the persistence of above-target inflation and a potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations. This paper shows that trend inflation estimation using forward-looking information can offer important insights for the understanding of inflation dynamics and long-term inflation expectations. Our analysis for 5 large LATAM economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) reveals that a large part of the high inflation observed over 2021–23 mainly reflects transitory influences, and the stability of long-term survey expectations is broadly in line with persistent inflation trends. The risk of a de-anchoring of expectations in those countries therefore seems to be limited. Our findings provide useful information for both monetary policy and market participants in LATAM countries, as well as for central banks and investors worldwide.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100133"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000152/pdfft?md5=9294302768fd25ffa3fc909268dcdb60&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000152-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141067958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal robust monetary policy in a small open emerging-market economy 小型开放新兴市场经济体的最佳稳健货币政策

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100132

Marine Charlotte André , Sebastián Medina Espidio

{"title":"Optimal robust monetary policy in a small open emerging-market economy","authors":"Marine Charlotte André , Sebastián Medina Espidio","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study for a benchmark small open emerging economy an optimal robust monetary policy à la Hansen and Sargent (2003) considering additive model uncertainty. The robust control approach supposes that economic agents are not able to assign probabilities to a set of all plausible models and rather focuses on the worst possible misspecification from a benchmark model. Our findings are threefold. First, conducting a global robust optimal monetary policy can be limited since the departure from the benchmark model leads to multiple equilibria. Second, when model uncertainty arises only from the IS curve or the UIP condition, the space of unique solutions is expanded. In fact, when the central bank has a preference for robustness on the IS curve only, it should be more aggressive to demand and real exchange rate shocks but more conservative to cost-push shocks. On the other hand, when it has a preference for robustness only for the UIP, the central bank should be more aggressive to demand and cost-push shocks. Third, a sensitivity analysis suggests that conducting a global robust optimal monetary policy with the same misspecification in all equations is limited due to the persistence of inflation, the low exchange-rate pass-through and the need to anchor inflation expectations. Finally, we propose a Bayesian estimation for the Sidaoui and Ramos-Francia’s model over the period 2001–2019.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100132"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000140/pdfft?md5=65ba73022bf455dbf45efdfaa84d39d7&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000140-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140914145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An empirical analysis of monetary policy committees composition and its relationship with monetary policy 货币政策委员会组成及其与货币政策关系的实证分析

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100134

Guilherme Spilimbergo Costa , Diogo Abry Guillen

{"title":"An empirical analysis of monetary policy committees composition and its relationship with monetary policy","authors":"Guilherme Spilimbergo Costa , Diogo Abry Guillen","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper compiles a novel and unique dataset encompassing 439 individuals who served as board members on 16 different inflation-targeting central banks’ monetary policy committees (MPCs) from 1999 to 2018. We document relevant trends over the past twenty years: (i) An increasing share of women serving on committees, albeit still a minority; (ii) an increase in the share of members with previous private sector experience and (iii) an increase in the average age and experience among members over time. Moreover, we find that: (i) A higher proportion of members with MBAs and Masters’ in economics is related to lower levels of inflation; (ii) a committee with more members with formations not in economics or law tends to be more lenient towards the monetary policy target; (iii) the average MPC age within a range of 55 and 60 years seems to be linked to less volatile inflation; and (iv) more MPC women members correlates with both lower and less volatile inflation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000164/pdfft?md5=d64fcc5a8c5d3a92c879f49f0a312712&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000164-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nestedness and systemic risk in financial networks 金融网络中的嵌套性和系统性风险

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100136

Michel Alexandre, F. Xavier, T. C. Silva, Francisco A. Rodrigues

引用次数: 0

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting 用于宏观经济预测的冲突、社会动荡和政策不确定性措施的信息含量

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100130

Marina Diakonova , Luis Molina , Hannes Mueller , Javier J. Pérez , Christopher Rauh

{"title":"The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting","authors":"Marina Diakonova , Luis Molina , Hannes Mueller , Javier J. Pérez , Christopher Rauh","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly explained by a certain divide between the economic and political science contributions in this area, as well as the traditional lack of availability of timely high-frequency indicators measuring such phenomena. The latter constraint, though, is becoming less of a limiting factor through the production of text-based indicators. In this paper we assemble a dataset of such monthly measures of what we call “institutional instability”, for three representative emerging market economies: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. We then forecast quarterly GDP by adding these new variables to a standard macro-forecasting model using different methods. Our results strongly suggest that capturing institutional instability above a broad set of standard high-frequency indicators is useful when forecasting quarterly GDP. We also analyse relative strengths and weaknesses of the approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100130"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000127/pdfft?md5=ef3a03ba74582a329c15dcb71e69a706&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000127-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140816467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

CEMLA’s survey on central bank digital currencies in Latin America and the Caribbean 拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会关于拉丁美洲和加勒比地区中央银行数字货币的调查

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100135

Gerardo Hernández del Valle , Karla Chua Mejía , Bernardo Paniagua Zabal , Matias Alfredo Gutierrez Girault , Pablo Villalobos González

{"title":"CEMLA’s survey on central bank digital currencies in Latin America and the Caribbean","authors":"Gerardo Hernández del Valle , Karla Chua Mejía , Bernardo Paniagua Zabal , Matias Alfredo Gutierrez Girault , Pablo Villalobos González","doi":"10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In late 2021 and early 2022, CEMLA conducted a thorough survey involving 12 central banks to analyze key aspects related to the potential implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The findings revealed prevalent issues and objectives regarding digital payments in the region, as well as promising avenues for central bank involvement. However, it highlighted the challenges of creating a universal CBDC framework due to significant disparities among neighboring countries. Nonetheless, the collaborative research approach promises valuable insights for future efforts. To protect participant anonymity, each country’s responses were anonymized with randomly assigned letters.</p><p>The survey extensively examined awareness and understanding of CBDCs across diverse stakeholders in Latin American nations, including the general public, corporations, and financial institutions. These insights could shape educational campaigns and communication strategies, enabling policymakers and central banks to effectively share information about CBDCs.</p><p>Moreover, this research effort sheds light on public perceptions, expectations, and concerns about CBDCs in Latin America. By exploring various dimensions such as awareness, interest, adoption potential, concerns, preferences, and regulatory considerations, the survey offers a comprehensive understanding of the CBDC landscape in the region. This holistic approach provides valuable insights for policymakers, central banks, and stakeholders to navigate the complexities of CBDC implementation effectively and responsibly.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100867,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Journal of Central Banking","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000176/pdfft?md5=25a4468b2ad928921c40d4d30896a671&pid=1-s2.0-S2666143824000176-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140807243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash 不确定性、政治和危机：现金案例

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100128

Gerhard Rösl , Franz Seitz

引用次数: 0

Estimating the output gap in times of COVID-19 估算 COVID-19 时代的产出缺口

Latin American Journal of Central Banking Pub Date : 2024-04-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100129

Luigi Durand, Jorge Alberto Fornero

引用次数: 0