FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"A Decade of Change and Future Prospects of Organic Farming in Iran Using the Multi-Round Delphi Method","authors":"Arezou Babajani,&nbsp;Faezeh Rahmati,&nbsp;Neda Rafizadeh,&nbsp;Sabine Zikeli,&nbsp;Christine Wieck","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, the concept of organic farming has gained increasing attention due to its reduced use of agrochemicals, ecological preservation, and contribution to sustainability. However, the analysis of data from 2013 to 2021 shows that organic agriculture in Iran remained almost unchanged until 2016, with approximately 18,871 hectares under cultivation. After 2016, a period of stagnation ensued, followed by a decline, suggesting a regression rather than a progression in the sector. The present study aims to identify and evaluate the primary indicators influencing the development of organic agriculture in Iran by leveraging the expertise of subject-matter experts. To this end, a four-round, two-phase Delphi method was employed to identify, refine, and validate the indicators. This method entailed conducting interviews with Iranian organic farming experts representing diverse organizations and sectors within organic agriculture. The identified factors were then grouped using the 7S model (Strategy, Structure, System, Skills, Staff, Style, and Shared Values). A nonparametric test was used to determine changes in these indicators over the past decade. The study's findings suggest that structural enhancements, increased knowledge, and growing societal awareness of sustainability have exerted a favorable influence. Nevertheless, systemic and policy constraints have curtailed the comprehensive advancement of organic farming. This research offers significant insights to the dynamics of organic agriculture in Iran and provides concrete recommendations for promoting its development in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145891022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reimagining Digital Labour Futures in Vietnam: A Causal Layered Analysis Case Study of Socio-Technical Transitions in an Emerging Economy","authors":"Thi Van Hoa Tran,&nbsp;Quoc Dung Ngo","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vietnam's rapid digital transformation presents a complex paradox: whilst the digital economy demonstrates exceptional growth exceeding 20% annually, the labour market exhibits deepening precarity and structural inequalities. This study employs a comprehensive Futures Studies approach, utilising Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), scenario planning, and the Futures Wheel, to examine Vietnam's digital labour dynamics through in-depth interviews with 28 stakeholders across five categories: workers, employers, educators, policymakers, and futures experts. Grounded in Inayatullah's Six Pillars Framework for futures thinking, the research reveals four distinct layers of causality: surface trends showing accelerated digitisation and gig economy expansion; systemic causes including policy-driven development and legal grey zones; worldviews characterised by pervasive techno-optimism and partnership illusions; and deep myths positioning Vietnam as an “Asian Tiger” pursuing a “Digital Leapfrog.” Futures Wheel analysis maps the cascading impacts of widespread AI adoption, while scenario planning identifies four potential pathways, ranging from inclusive digital prosperity to stratified precarity. The findings demonstrate how surface-level economic success can coexist with microeconomic vulnerability when social infrastructure fails to keep pace with technological advancements. This rigorous application of established Futures Studies methods provides empirical insights for managing digital labour transitions in emerging economies, contributing substantial case study evidence and practical policy insights for ensuring equitable development outcomes whilst leveraging technological opportunities.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Identification of Emerging Quantum Technologies in the Healthcare Sector: A Horizon Scanning Study","authors":"Oshin Sharma,&nbsp;Ross Fairbairn,&nbsp;Imogen Forsythe,&nbsp;Oleta Williams,&nbsp;Andrew Mkwashi","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantum technologies, driven by principles of quantum mechanics like superposition and entanglement, have shown transformative potential in drug discovery, medical diagnosis, precision medicine, and other therapeutic interventions. However, the research on emerging quantum technologies at early to late stages of development for healthcare applications is limited. The main objective of this study was to identify emerging quantum technologies such as quantum computing, diagnostics, and therapeutics, with a focus on specific applications within healthcare, such as drug discovery, diagnosis assistance, precision medicine, and treatment interventions. We conducted a comprehensive review of this landscape by analyzing data from clinical trials, published literature, and soft intelligence sources. The analysis revealed 116 quantum technologies such as computing algorithms, therapeutics, sensors, and imaging applications that are currently in development or already in the market. Diagnosis assistance-related technologies, including technologies such as magnetoencephalography and quantum dots, constituted the majority of the technologies, while quantum computing-related machine learning and algorithms were significant in drug discovery and precision medicine applications. The integration of quantum technologies into healthcare faces challenges such as infrastructure demands, regulatory frameworks, and the need for professional training. However, with ongoing advancements, quantum technologies are uniquely positioned to revolutionize diagnostic accuracy, computational capacity for drug design, and precision medicine. This horizon scan highlights the current innovation landscape of emerging quantum technologies in healthcare and the challenges in facilitating the integration of these technologies into healthcare systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of Expected Impacts and Scenarios of Adopting Fusion Energy in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Ibrahim A. Alrammah,&nbsp;Meshari Alqahtani,&nbsp;Ahmed A. Basfar,&nbsp;Mohammad Mhareb","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fusion energy is increasingly recognized as a potential game-changer in addressing the grand challenge of achieving deep decarbonization while ensuring long-term energy security. Recognizing the uncertainty surrounding fusion energy's technological maturity, commercialization timelines, and cost trajectories, this study adopts an anticipatory foresight approach tailored to high-uncertainty contexts. The research employs a mixed-methods framework incorporating horizon scanning, expert elicitation, trend analysis, and exploratory scenario planning. These methods were selected to account for deep technological uncertainty (e.g., plasma containment breakthroughs, cost convergence, fuel supply chain development), as well as systemic uncertainties related to sociopolitical acceptance and infrastructure readiness. For the case of Saudi Arabia, three distinct scenarios—Optimistic, Moderate, and Conservative—are developed to reflect a spectrum of plausible futures. Under the Optimistic Scenario, fusion could supply 10%–15% of Saudi Arabia's electricity mix by 2045 (50–75 TWh annually). The Moderate Scenario forecasts a 5%–10% contribution by 2050 (25–50 TWh), while the Conservative case sees fusion reaching under 5% by 2060 (&lt; 25 TWh). These projections are framed within the broader uncertainty landscape, with sensitivity analyses on cost assumptions, technological learning curves, and policy interventions. A comparative assessment of anticipatory methodologies under these uncertainty levels underscores the limitations of deterministic forecasting and the value of scenario-based planning in guiding long-term energy policy. While fusion's economic feasibility remains uncertain, potential cost parity with advanced nuclear fission and gas-fired plants by mid-century is plausible. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations to reduce uncertainty and accelerate fusion adoption: increasing national R&amp;D funding, fostering international and public-private collaborations, investing in adaptive grid infrastructure, and developing flexible regulatory frameworks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145750670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long-Term Horizons","authors":"Merve Asilogullari Ayan,&nbsp;Serhat Cakir","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>From past to present, the defense industry has consistently driven technological innovation, acting as a catalyst for breakthroughs that extend beyond military applications. As global defense strategies increasingly rely on cutting-edge technologies, identifying areas of investment that align with Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies has become crucial. Using the Delphi method, this study gathers insights from 74 Turkish defense-sector professionals—academics, engineers, and military officers—to evaluate 14 priority technology domains defined by the European Defense Agency taxonomy. Türkiye's short-, medium-, and long-term roadmap for digital transformation emphasizes immediate-impact areas, including cybersecurity, sensor systems, and design technologies, as well as long-horizon priorities, including photonics, advanced materials, and propulsion systems. Cybersecurity stands out as a disruptive, high-impact domain, reshaping both Türkiye's defense capabilities and the global security paradigm. The results function as a policy roadmap, allowing decision-makers to reconcile near-term readiness with long-term strategic autonomy by aligning investments, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives. These technologies challenge existing norms and demand adaptive policy frameworks that can anticipate and regulate their influence on national security. The integration of such technologies into defense frameworks represents a paradigmatic shift, reshaping military strategies and global power dynamics. The findings of this study contribute to ongoing discussions about the foresight of emerging technologies and their strategic implications within the defense industry, positioning it at the forefront of global technological transformation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145739704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foresighting Scenarios for Green Hydrogen in Portugal: Systematization of Potential Futures and Identification of Bottlenecks and Constraints","authors":"Mário Vieira,&nbsp;Marco Alves,&nbsp;Sofia G. Simoes,&nbsp;Lídia Quental,&nbsp;Justina Catarino,&nbsp;Paulo J. R. Pinto,&nbsp;Paula Oliveira,&nbsp;Teresa Simões","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The use of green hydrogen has emerged as a promising avenue for facilitating the decarbonization of society. In this study, the potential futures of green hydrogen in Portugal, a key player in Europe's energy transition, are explored. Utilizing General Morphological Analysis combined with advanced clustering, the various political, social, and technological elements are analyzed to create a multifaceted view of the sector's future. This results in seven distinct scenario clusters, each offering unique insights into the challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen. The scenarios span a range of outcomes, from rapid growth fueled by strong policy support and technological advancements to more measured development due to economic or infrastructural hurdles. This study intends to provide stakeholders a deep understanding of the factors influencing green hydrogen's role in Portugal's push towards a sustainable energy landscape by 2030. These results provide a basis for the development of new projects and research directions, providing them with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Moreover, this study will contribute to decision support by facilitating actions aimed at fostering the appropriate development of green hydrogen.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Discriminative Artificial Intelligence Drives Scenario Planning: A Systematic Literature Review and Research Agenda","authors":"Laura M. Berensmeier,&nbsp;Valentin J. Schmitt,&nbsp;Martin G. Moehrle","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article explores the potential of discriminative Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance scenario planning, a widely used methodology in strategic planning. Like others, scenario planning also faces the challenge of efficiently integrating available information. We address this challenge by investigating two research questions: First, how is discriminative AI currently applied in scenario planning? Second, how could discriminative AI techniques additionally be used to support the stakeholders of scenario planning? A systematic literature review identifies 58 relevant documents that illustrate the application of discriminative AI in several stages of the scenario process. We present six key findings in relation to the purpose of discriminative AI, the data used and the spectrum of topics. We then formulate seven research propositions that serve as a research agenda and highlight further potential for the utilization of discriminative AI. Our contribution to science is that we show how the roles of stakeholders are going to change. For management, we demonstrate the numerous opportunities offered by discriminative AI to improve the quality of scenario planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145407438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When We Work. Delphi Results on Time and Temporality Within Futures of Work","authors":"Veli Virmajoki,&nbsp;Sirkka Heinonen,&nbsp;Riku Viitamäki,&nbsp;Amos Taylor,&nbsp;Juho Ruotsalainen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines time and temporality as central but often overlooked dimensions that shape the futures of work. While workplace transformation discussions often emphasise spatial aspects of working environments, our study reveals that temporal structures fundamentally determine how work is organised, experienced, and valued. In a two-round Delphi study conducted in 2024, we used a novel Delphi approach with provocations and paradox probing. As a result, we gained understanding on how temporal (i.e., time-related) issues function as critical elements in future work environments. Our findings indicate that novel temporal arrangements and understandings are associated with transformations in working environments. However, the possibility of novel temporal arrangements and their utilisation often follow existing power structures, which create inequities between different sectors, roles, and people. To conceptualise time as an active element rather than neutral background, we contextualise the analysis to literature on time in futures studies and related fields. In this way, our research contributes through the Delphi study to understanding how changing temporalities might affect whether workplace innovations succeed in fostering productivity, well-being, and equity or whether they create novel problems and new forms of exclusion. The results of our Delphi study are particularly timely given how workplaces change in the context of the so-called double twin transition of digital/green and virtual/physical transforming our societies. Where and when cannot be separated when it comes to the futures of work, given the double twin transition.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stakeholder-Driven Consequence Modeling Employing Cross-Impact Balance Scenario Analysis","authors":"Simon Brauner,&nbsp;Stefan Vögele","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Future research, including participatory research, can help to explore stakeholder perspectives. This capability is observable in scenario methods such as the cross-impact balance analysis that aggregates factors from which scenarios and further research opportunities are derivable. In this methodologically oriented paper, a modeling idea is explored, in which consequences are considered as flexible factors in the modeling process, rather than drawing on fixed impact-consequence linkages. The study proposes an extension that explicitly models implicitly acting consequences to increase stakeholder involvement and system understanding. In this regard, the manuscript argues that this approach enables reflection on the modeling and potential results during this process, as they are constructed around these consequences or, more generally, system indicators. Thus, this approach provides an opportunity to integrate cross-impact assessment more effectively into stakeholder dialog by facilitating the tracking and discussion of structures. The study also illustrates the methodological approach by highlighting its application to the topic of water governance. In addition to the potential for utilizing this approach in workshops and participatory co-modeling, the most significant initial finding of this study is that the explication of consequences could serve as a suitable foundation for further studies focusing on stakeholder involvement or impact analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Democratization of Tomorrow's Plate: Synergizing Foresight Methods and Design Thinking in Designing Cellular Agriculture Innovations","authors":"Simbarashe Nhokovedzo,&nbsp;Petri Tapio,&nbsp;Siyada Witoon,&nbsp;Nikita Uverov,&nbsp;Tawanda Prosper Mushayavanhu","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a sustainable design framework for cellular agriculture innovations by integrating foresight methods and design thinking. Importantly, the research connected design thinking, foresight methods and sustainable innovations. The framework systematically aligns foresight methods with the design thinking process, thus enabling cellular agriculture innovators to anticipate long-term challenges and navigate uncertainties. The strengths and limitations of either design thinking or foresight are explored thus rationalizing the need to integrate them. A key research question of the study is: <i>How can foresight methods be systematically integrated with design thinking to enhance the sustainability of Cellular Agriculture innovations?</i> A user-friendly framework is developed by matching foresight methods capabilities and aims of design thinking stages. The paper discusses theoretical and practical implications of the framework while pointing direction of further research in shaping sustainable food systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}