FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"Exploring Pathways for Change: A Practice-Oriented Integration of Foresight and Sustainability Transitions","authors":"Björn Martin Persson,&nbsp;Johnn Andersson,&nbsp;Petter Bertilsson Forsberg","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.209","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The world is on a trajectory to exceed the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement. As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, there is a pressing need to fundamentally transform our societies towards just and sustainable futures. This paper presents a practical methodology for guiding collaborative transformation processes towards sustainability. Our aim is to contribute to the development of tools that combine insights from foresight with theories from the sustainability transitions literature, specifically scenario planning and multi-level perspective (MLP) approaches. Foresight and sustainability transitions both aim to understand long-term trends shaping production and consumption systems and guide transitions to more desirable socio-technical regimes. However, few scholars have examined overlaps between the fields and explored the potential for practical integration in workshop settings. The MLP can benefit from scenario planning by incorporating directionality and pluralism of futures in transition processes, while the MLP provides a structure for understanding system dynamics and socio-technical change to scenario planning. In this paper, we share our experiences using an integrated MLP-scenario planning framework in a workshop setting where actors from the Swedish food system explored prospective transitions. Using backcasting and pre-mortem related to regime dimensions from the MLP, participants built a common understanding of events, barriers and pathways associated with four normative scenarios of sustainable food systems. Our results show that the MLP and scenario planning can be integrated and implemented on a practical level to facilitate dialogues on current regime lock-ins and thereby pave the way for transformative change.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.209","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Participation of Civil Society in Security and Defense Foresight Exercises","authors":"Silvia Vicente-Oliva","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.206","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In democratic countries, citizens are informed about economic policies, health systems, and public education, as well as the policy actions addressing these areas. However, the public often only notices security and defense policies when they are lacking. Security and defense foresight exercises are typically seen as the domain of military personnel, technology experts, and politicians, due to their experience with strategic assets and classified information. Although citizens are represented by elected politicians, security and defense issues frequently remain in the political background, overshadowed by more immediate concerns like energy availability and pricing. To increase meaningful citizen participation in security and defense issues, a well-informed citizenry is essential. This requires knowledge of threats, civil rights, technological developments, and international affairs. The multidisciplinary nature of these topics makes selecting suitable participants for foresight exercises complex. While informed citizens can contribute to discussions on future developments and threats, such as artificial intelligence, fake news, and electoral processes, the question remains: how can citizens participate in security and defense foresight exercises? This study, based on the Spanish case, reveals that experts agree on the need for greater citizen participation in defense and security politics. However, they did not offer specific ideas or suggestions for achieving this. Consequently, a review of participatory foresight instruments was conducted, resulting in a proposed workflow for future exercises and recommendations for practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.206","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Scenario Quality Assessment Method: A New Technique for Verifying the Quality of Scenarios","authors":"Steven Curnin,&nbsp;Oliver Brooks,&nbsp;Benjamin Brooks","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.205","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In a modern world faced by increasing uncertainty and crises, the importance of scenarios to inform the strategic decision-making processes of governments and corporations has become paramount. This necessitates that those scenarios are rigorous and of high quality. A challenge is that research articulating how to classify and ensure the quality of a scenario is not prolific. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a framework of criteria for assessing scenario quality based on the futures and foresight literature and then using this to offer a new method for specifically assessing the quality of scenarios in the context of crisis management. The Scenario Quality Assessment Method infuses both the critical thinking and creativity required to develop quality scenarios. The method was empirically verified with scholars and practitioners in the industry to determine inter-rater reliability before its intended use in the analysis of a data set for a scenario planning research project in the context of crisis management. This paper contributes theoretically to future and foresight research by including the concept of creativity when assessing the quality of scenarios and offers practitioners in crisis management an effective technique to assess the quality of their own scenarios.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.205","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing Guidelines for the Future of Visual Art Education: A Delphi Study of the Croatian Case","authors":"Lana Skender,&nbsp;Snježana Dubovicki","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.204","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The qualitative research examined how the Delphi method could be used to develop guidelines for the future of Visual Arts education in Croatia. The study gathered insights from eight experts across various disciplines, including art history, art pedagogy, visual culture, and curriculum theory, to assess the impact of visual culture on Visual Arts education. The experts discussed changes in teaching methods, the influence of visual culture on young people, its effect on curricula, the relationship between fine art and visual culture, and the importance of an interdisciplinary approach. The findings suggest that this methodology could serve as a model for future educational policy reforms and for innovating and creating new Visual Arts curricula.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.204","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Governance Problems: Risks of Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Atte Ojanen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Comparative approaches are rarely utilized in futures studies despite the distinctive nature of different policy problems. Issues like climate change, infrastructure investments, and governance of emerging technology are frequently grouped under the umbrella of the “long-term problems” without adequate consideration for their distinct spatial and temporal attributes. To address this research gap, this paper presents a framework to systematically compare long-term policy problems, such as the risks of climate change and artificial intelligence (AI). I conduct a comparative analysis of the risks of climate change and AI—both widely regarded as pivotal questions of our time—focusing on how they differ across eight attributes that affect their governance: scientific certainty, spatiality, temporality, linearity, path dependence, accountability, capacity to address and the costs involved. The findings suggest that climate change involves a more evident intergenerational conflict between generations than risks of AI and might therefore be a more challenging long-term governance problem. Yet, both problems risk triggering irreversible lock-in effects, specifically in extreme scenarios such as crossing climate tipping points or misaligned advanced AI systems. Mitigating these uncertain lock-in effects requires precautionary governance measures, highlighting the potential of comparative approaches at the intersection of foresight and policy analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.203","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reflections on Building an Artificial Intelligence Bot to Prepare Students to Engage in Strategic Conversations During Foresight Fieldwork","authors":"Rui Pedro Gonçalves,&nbsp;Matthew J. Spaniol,&nbsp;Nicholas J. Rowland,&nbsp;Niels Gorm Malý Rytter","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.202","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper is primarily based on experientially derived insights about building a bot with artificial intelligence (AI)–in this case, chat generative pre-trained transformer (ChatGPT)–to prepare students to engage in strategic conversations during foresight fieldwork. The motivation of the exploratory process outlined in this paper is the pedagogical concern of sending students into the field sufficiently prepared to meet the expectations of external stakeholders. The authors explore a in-class prompt engineering exercise to create a “chief operating bot” (COB) to simulate a C-suite executive. The student-faculty team input hand-selected, industry-specific, company-generated documentation, and, after asking ChatGPT to “roleplay” the COO, the student queries this COB in an exploratory fashion embedded in a contained, consequence-free learning environment. The audience for this paper is faculty responsible for overseeing student engagement experiences like fieldwork, as well as department heads and school deans looking to promote new tools and advance novel applications of AI in their units. The authors explore ways to enhance student readiness for scenario fieldwork based on an exercise drawn from van der Heijden's clairvoyant question, which we refer to colloquially as the “crystal ball thought experiment.” The authors, upon reflection, conclude that the COB can valuably supplement–but not fully replace–face-to-face interactions with a COO. Broadly, leveraging AI to create interactive tools like COBs has the potential to transform business education by bridging academic preparation with real-world demands, enhancing student readiness, advancing AI-assisted curricula, and contributing to strategic planning and regional development.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.202","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using Horizon Scanning to Build Policy Resilience: Case of Waste Crime","authors":"Kenisha Garnett,&nbsp;Alister Wilson,&nbsp;Edith Wilkinson","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Waste crime is a pressing concern for the waste and resource industry as it is undermining investment, growth and jobs within the industry and threatening the natural environment. However, there is little knowledge of the scale of the problem, the types of criminality and motivations involved, and the precise nature of crime. Environmental regulators are building foresight capabilities to better understand the effect of current and future changes in markets, in technology and in the legislative environment on waste crime and associated behaviours. At the heart of this paper is the question: how can horizon scanning be adopted by environmental regulators to shape decision processes and build resilience to waste crime? We report our efforts to build a toolkit and guidance for conducting horizon scanning, aimed at supporting environmental regulators, investigators and intelligence analysts to build an understanding of—and interpretation of the consequences of—behavioural, market, technological and pollution trends in the waste sector. A review of the academic and grey literature provided insights to organisational approaches and design principles for public sector horizon scanning. Outputs guided discussion at a stakeholder workshop with waste regulators, criminal intelligence and industry professionals to explore institutional challenges and to agree broad design principles for a horizon scanning process. The toolkit supports environmental regulators in applying horizon scanning to policy and wider operational and delivery-focused challenges; learning how to: (1) spot weak signals and emerging trends quickly, (2) examine the evidence around potential threats and opportunities for the future, and (3) take action on strategically important issues to minimise the impact of crime on the environment, society and business. The paper sets out further research needed to integrate horizon scanning with data analytics (e.g., predictive and hotspot analyses) to challenge assumptions about the patterns of change, based largely on historical trends, and to better manage these so there is greater adaptability to current and future trends.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare","authors":"Elina Hiltunen,&nbsp;Aki-Mauri Huhtinen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.200","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Futurists are, by definition, interested in the future. Futurists, therefore, work with time. But how does time manifest itself in various domains? The laws of nature, historical inventions and chain of events, international agreements, and cultural and religious beliefs affect the way we see and handle time. Time also appears in our bodies and cells, as we have biological clocks that keep time. The sense of time is affected by our senses, psychological situation, and for example by chemicals. This article continues the work of Virmajoki and Laakkonen and their concept: time-need. Virmajoki and Laakkonen discuss time-need in their article with a case study of railways. This article will focus on another practical example, warfare, and how time manifests itself in it. The article presents <i>the holistic framework of time for warfare</i>, with various levels of time that affect war and a soldier.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.200","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calibration Feedback With the Practical Scoring Rule Does Not Improve Calibration of Confidence","authors":"Matthew Martin,&nbsp;David R. Mandel","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.199","url":null,"abstract":"<p>People are often overconfident in their probabilistic judgments of future events or the state of their own knowledge. Some training methods have proven effective at reducing bias, but these usually involve intensive training sessions with experienced facilitators. This is not conducive to a scalable and domain-general training program for improving calibration. In two experiments (<i>N</i>₁ = 610, <i>N</i>₂ = 871), we examined the effectiveness of a performance feedback calibration training paradigm based on the Practical scoring rule, a modification of the logarithmic scoring rule designed to be more intuitive to facilitate learning. We examined this training regime in comparison to a control group and an outcome feedback group. Participants were tasked with selecting which of two world urban agglomerations had a higher population and to provide their confidence level. The outcome feedback group received information about the correctness of their choice on a trial-by-trial basis as well as a summary of their percent correct after each experimental block. The performance feedback group received this information plus the Practical score on a trial-by-trial basis and information about their overall over- or underconfidence at the end of each block. We also examined whether Actively Open-Minded Thinking (AOMT) was predictive of calibration and its change across blocks. We found no improvement in calibration due to either training regime. Good calibration overall was predicted by AOMT, but not its change across blocks. The results shed light on the generalizability of other findings showing positive effects of performance training using the Practical scoring rule.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.199","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions: The Role of Institutionalization","authors":"Max Priebe,&nbsp;Sylvia Veit,&nbsp;Philine Warnke","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.197","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Public administration in governments strives to develop forward-looking capacities. Foresight has come to the fore as a set of practices that is mobilized to counter political myopia. Despite this increasing interest in governmental foresight, research suggests that diverging institutional practices, organizational structures, and epistemic cultures between foresight practices and policy-making result in loose coupling. This article aims to contribute to understanding these complicated foresight-policy interactions. To this end, we draw on findings from public administration scholarship. The concept of institutionalization is employed to analyze how foresight aligns with working practices and routines in government. Based on an in-depth case study on the institutionalization of foresight practices within the German Federal Government, we demonstrate that scrutinizing the multiple dimensions of institutionalization helps not only to understand where and why loose ends occur but also provides new insights into some of the causes of the lacking impact. The article does not aim to provide an easy fix. Instead, we want to sensitize foresight practitioners, reduce both disappointment and overstating regarding the role of foresight in policy-making, and provide a nuanced understanding of foresight practices in government.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.197","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}