FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第2页

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-05-26

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FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-05-04

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FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-05-04

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FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-14

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FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-14

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From Scenario Thinking to Scenario Doing: Strategic Management as Wayfinding 从情景思考到情景行动：作为寻路的战略管理

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-03-22 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70038

Harry Sminia

{"title":"From Scenario Thinking to Scenario Doing: Strategic Management as Wayfinding","authors":"Harry Sminia","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper blends the ingredients of practice-oriented theorizing, scenarios, and dynamic capability to propose wayfinding as an alternative to strategic management as planning. It will augment the notion of “scenario thinking” by placing it within the “scenario doing” of participating in developmental trajectories by which a firm evolves into the future. Wayfinding is presented as being done by way of practical coping, conscious reflecting, or practical solutioning. A firm engaging in practical coping utilizes practical intelligibility—an understanding or “knowhow” and “know why“ of how to enact practices—to generate a ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory that is reflected in a baseline scenario: a cognitive and discursive representation of how this trajectory moves the firm into the future. A firm experiences a breakdown IN practical coping when a lack of practical intelligibility makes a firm unable to participate in the ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory. Scenario thinking then has to take on the form of conscious reflecting to identify which additional practical intelligibility the firm needs to draw in to restore a firm's practical coping. Practical solutioning deals with a breakdown OF practical coping when practical intelligibility is non-existent and is to be newly created. Scenario thinking thus becomes speculative imagination to develop new practical intelligibility. Dynamic capability then is elaborated as a firm's ability to participate in ongoing developmental trajectories by way of practical coping, conscious reflecting, and practical solutioning. The argumentation is illustrated with the case of how MP3 became part of the recorded music field.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Must One Imagine Sisyphus Happy? An Archetypal Risk Scenario Approach to the Administrative Unification of a Public School of Engineering 一定要想象西西弗斯快乐吗？公立工程学院行政统一的原型风险情景方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70037

Christian Monni, Henrique Martins Rocha, Andrei Bonamigo

{"title":"Must One Imagine Sisyphus Happy? An Archetypal Risk Scenario Approach to the Administrative Unification of a Public School of Engineering","authors":"Christian Monni, Henrique Martins Rocha, Andrei Bonamigo","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates institutional risks and resilience in the administrative unification of a Brazilian public engineering school, a context marked by complex organizational change in the absence of formal risk governance. Employing a qualitative action-research design, this study integrates PESTEL analysis with a novel archetypal diagnostic framework. Drawing on foresight methods, it examines deep structural and cultural tensions. Four archetypal scenarios—Kafka, Sisyphus, Zombie, and Confucius—are used as structured analytical narratives that synthesize recurrent internal configurations through which the institution responds to environmental pressures and institutional uncertainty. The key findings reveal a central institutional tension between emergent sociocultural resilience, grounded in collaboration and the mediating role of local leadership, and persistent vulnerabilities linked to administrative discontinuity, budget instability, and technological obsolescence. Questionnaire data triangulated and validated the qualitative analysis, confirming strong consensus on centralization and resource scarcity as key perceived risks, while indicating divergent assessments regarding governance arrangements. The study concludes that this integrated framework offers a practical diagnostic approach for public managers, supporting institutional reflection and adaptive capacity by rendering systemic risks and cultural patterns visible, open to discussion, and actionable.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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A Vulnerability Lens for Intuitive-Logic Scenarios 直观逻辑场景的漏洞镜头

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70036

Guido Fioretti

{"title":"A Vulnerability Lens for Intuitive-Logic Scenarios","authors":"Guido Fioretti","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploration of possibilities by means of intuitive logic is hampered by a large number of scenarios, which easily exceed the limits imposed by human bounded rationality. While many practitioners constrain their scenarios within a <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 \u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 \u0000 <mo>×</mo>\u0000 \u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $2times 2$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> matrix by design, more structured approaches point to rationales such as eliminating contradictory possibilities, adding opposites to increase diversity, and checking the vulnerability of scenarios with respect to contingencies that are out of control. In general, vulnerability evaluation is based on the assessment of probabilities. With this paper, I propose an evaluation of scenarios' vulnerability based on the structure of connections between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences. Since this method does not require any probability assessment, it can be applied even when reliable estimates of probabilities are not available.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146176677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Automated Technology Foresight for Urban Innovation Ecosystems: A Machine Learning Approach to Real-Time Startup Detection and Technology Trend Mapping in a Mid-Sized City 城市创新生态系统的自动化技术预测：中型城市实时启动检测和技术趋势映射的机器学习方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70026

Emmanuel Candido Soriente Santos, Hien Duc Han

{"title":"Automated Technology Foresight for Urban Innovation Ecosystems: A Machine Learning Approach to Real-Time Startup Detection and Technology Trend Mapping in a Mid-Sized City","authors":"Emmanuel Candido Soriente Santos, Hien Duc Han","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of technology-driven enterprises in Adelaide, South Australia, from 2019 to 2022, introducing a novel automated foresight methodology that combines natural language processing, machine learning, and geographic visualization. Using web scraping techniques and social media analytics, we analyzed 4001 posts from 856 founder and employee profiles, 20,000 tweets, and 10,000 news articles to map the emergence of technology hotspots across Greater Adelaide. The findings reveal significant clustering patterns in five key technological categories: machine learning and big data analytics, digital health and medical technology, agricultural technology, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy. Our analysis identifies four primary innovation districts as emerging technology hotspots. The study demonstrates a 40% increase in technology-related activities between 2019 and 2022, with renewable energy showing the most dramatic growth trajectory. The methodology successfully addresses the critical gap between static policy planning and rapidly evolving startup landscapes, providing policymakers and innovation stakeholders with dynamic, fine-grained insights into emerging technology clusters and future innovation trajectories. These findings contribute to understanding regional innovation systems and provide a scalable framework for technology foresight in regional innovation ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146096618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Anticipatory Methods for the Emergence of Radically New Technologies: Navigating Uncertainty 新技术出现的预期方法：导航不确定性

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70035

Barbara L. van Veen, J. Roland Ortt

{"title":"Anticipatory Methods for the Emergence of Radically New Technologies: Navigating Uncertainty","authors":"Barbara L. van Veen, J. Roland Ortt","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anticipating the emergence of radically new technologies poses significant methodological challenges due to high uncertainty surrounding their development and diffusion. Conventional forecasting approaches, which rely on stable relationships and historical data extrapolation, are often ill-suited to such conditions. This editorial examines how different anticipatory methods address uncertainty and what this implies for method selection in technology foresight. Drawing on four case studies—quantum technologies in healthcare, fusion energy, defense technologies, and the emergence of technology clusters—the special issue compares horizon scanning, scenario planning, Delphi-based expert elicitation, and computational weak-signal analysis. Using an emerging-technology framework that treats uncertainty as a defining and evolving attribute rather than a temporary knowledge gap, the editorial shows that method suitability depends on the nature and degree of uncertainty; the time horizon becomes meaningful only under specific uncertainty conditions. Foresight methods that structure exploration across multiple plausible futures remain applicable across uncertainty contexts, whereas forecasting is conditionally applicable and depends on predominantly epistemic uncertainty. The comparison further demonstrates that each method has structural limitations, underscoring the need for strategic combinations under higher uncertainty. By positioning uncertainty as the central organizing principle for methodological choice, this editorial contributes to futures and foresight research and offers guidance for designing anticipatory approaches that remain robust under radical uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146083375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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