FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第2页

The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare 战争时间的整体框架

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.200

Elina Hiltunen, Aki-Mauri Huhtinen

引用次数: 0

Calibration Feedback With the Practical Scoring Rule Does Not Improve Calibration of Confidence 使用实用评分规则的校准反馈不能提高校准置信度

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.199

Matthew Martin, David R. Mandel

{"title":"Calibration Feedback With the Practical Scoring Rule Does Not Improve Calibration of Confidence","authors":"Matthew Martin, David R. Mandel","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.199","url":null,"abstract":"People are often overconfident in their probabilistic judgments of future events or the state of their own knowledge. Some training methods have proven effective at reducing bias, but these usually involve intensive training sessions with experienced facilitators. This is not conducive to a scalable and domain-general training program for improving calibration. In two experiments (N1 = 610, N2 = 871), we examined the effectiveness of a performance feedback calibration training paradigm based on the Practical scoring rule, a modification of the logarithmic scoring rule designed to be more intuitive to facilitate learning. We examined this training regime in comparison to a control group and an outcome feedback group. Participants were tasked with selecting which of two world urban agglomerations had a higher population and to provide their confidence level. The outcome feedback group received information about the correctness of their choice on a trial-by-trial basis as well as a summary of their percent correct after each experimental block. The performance feedback group received this information plus the Practical score on a trial-by-trial basis and information about their overall over- or underconfidence at the end of each block. We also examined whether Actively Open-Minded Thinking (AOMT) was predictive of calibration and its change across blocks. We found no improvement in calibration due to either training regime. Good calibration overall was predicted by AOMT, but not its change across blocks. The results shed light on the generalizability of other findings showing positive effects of performance training using the Practical scoring rule.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.199","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions: The Role of Institutionalization 理解前瞻与政策的相互作用：制度化的作用

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.197

Max Priebe, Sylvia Veit, Philine Warnke

{"title":"Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions: The Role of Institutionalization","authors":"Max Priebe, Sylvia Veit, Philine Warnke","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.197","url":null,"abstract":"Public administration in governments strives to develop forward-looking capacities. Foresight has come to the fore as a set of practices that is mobilized to counter political myopia. Despite this increasing interest in governmental foresight, research suggests that diverging institutional practices, organizational structures, and epistemic cultures between foresight practices and policy-making result in loose coupling. This article aims to contribute to understanding these complicated foresight-policy interactions. To this end, we draw on findings from public administration scholarship. The concept of institutionalization is employed to analyze how foresight aligns with working practices and routines in government. Based on an in-depth case study on the institutionalization of foresight practices within the German Federal Government, we demonstrate that scrutinizing the multiple dimensions of institutionalization helps not only to understand where and why loose ends occur but also provides new insights into some of the causes of the lacking impact. The article does not aim to provide an easy fix. Instead, we want to sensitize foresight practitioners, reduce both disappointment and overstating regarding the role of foresight in policy-making, and provide a nuanced understanding of foresight practices in government.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.197","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Future of Humanity—From Global Civilization to Great Civilization By Zhouying Jin, Chicago: Intellect, the University of Chicago Press. 2022. 2nd ed. Translated by Lane Jennings and Ying Bai. 338 pp of text + references (no index) 《人类的未来——从全球文明到伟大文明》，金周颖著，芝加哥：智力，芝加哥大学出版社，2022年。第2版，由莱恩·詹宁斯和白英译，338页文本+参考文献（无索引）

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.198

Alan Clardy

引用次数: 0

Under what conditions? A scenario-based approach for exploring the prerequisites of future events

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.196

Tommi Ekholm, Theresa Schaber

{"title":"Under what conditions? A scenario-based approach for exploring the prerequisites of future events","authors":"Tommi Ekholm, Theresa Schaber","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.196","url":null,"abstract":"In an increasingly complex world, futures thinking can be used to understand the conditions that define future events' realization. This paper presents a novel approach to explore under what conditions some chosen future event would occur. The approach can be seen as a fusion of exploratory scenarios with the backward-looking perspective of backcasting while resembling cross-impact methods in how future events' realization arises from the interaction of several uncertain assumptions. The approach maps the causal mechanisms and assumptions that lead to the investigated event's realization, and results in a subset of assumption combinations that lead to the event being realized or not, and scenario sets where the event is either realized or not. This analysis provides insights beyond “Is the event likely to occur?”, revealing the various circumstances under which it can occur. We also provide ways for considering probabilities and deliberate decisions within the approach. We illustrate the approach with three example cases from different problem domains, such as reaching long-term climate targets, and employing various methods, such as causal mapping, influence diagrams, and optimization. We conclude with a discussion on the approach's potential to enhance foresight practice, emphasizing its synergistic relation to existing methods and its contribution to a richer, more nuanced anticipation of the future.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.196","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate 企业前瞻有利于企业的创新气候

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.195

Bernhard Wach, Jan O. Schwarz, Felix von Held

引用次数: 0

Simulation-based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering 基于仿真的基于时间序列聚类的多维未来情景生成与分析

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.194

Patrick Steinmann, Koen van der Zwet, Bas Keijser

引用次数: 0

Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis 在危机时刻将判断纳入预测模型

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.193

Philip Hans Franses

引用次数: 0

A review of the future: A very short introduction 对未来的回顾：一个非常简短的介绍

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.192

Nicholas J. Rowland, Alexis Ordess

引用次数: 0

Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment 在探索未来挑战时采用假想后代和系统思维的兼容效应：来自审议实验的证据

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.191

Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai, Yutaka Nomaguchi

{"title":"Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment","authors":"Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai, Yutaka Nomaguchi","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.191","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.191","url":null,"abstract":"We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141814838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0