FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"From Scenario Thinking to Scenario Doing: Strategic Management as Wayfinding","authors":"Harry Sminia","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper blends the ingredients of practice-oriented theorizing, scenarios, and dynamic capability to propose wayfinding as an alternative to strategic management as planning. It will augment the notion of “scenario thinking” by placing it within the “scenario doing” of participating in developmental trajectories by which a firm evolves into the future. Wayfinding is presented as being done by way of practical coping, conscious reflecting, or practical solutioning. A firm engaging in practical coping utilizes practical intelligibility—an understanding or “knowhow” and “know why“ of how to enact practices—to generate a ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory that is reflected in a baseline scenario: a cognitive and discursive representation of how this trajectory moves the firm into the future. A firm experiences a breakdown IN practical coping when a lack of practical intelligibility makes a firm unable to participate in the ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory. Scenario thinking then has to take on the form of conscious reflecting to identify which additional practical intelligibility the firm needs to draw in to restore a firm's practical coping. Practical solutioning deals with a breakdown OF practical coping when practical intelligibility is non-existent and is to be newly created. Scenario thinking thus becomes speculative imagination to develop new practical intelligibility. Dynamic capability then is elaborated as a firm's ability to participate in ongoing developmental trajectories by way of practical coping, conscious reflecting, and practical solutioning. The argumentation is illustrated with the case of how MP3 became part of the recorded music field.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Must One Imagine Sisyphus Happy? An Archetypal Risk Scenario Approach to the Administrative Unification of a Public School of Engineering","authors":"Christian Monni,&nbsp;Henrique Martins Rocha,&nbsp;Andrei Bonamigo","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates institutional risks and resilience in the administrative unification of a Brazilian public engineering school, a context marked by complex organizational change in the absence of formal risk governance. Employing a qualitative action-research design, this study integrates PESTEL analysis with a novel archetypal diagnostic framework. Drawing on foresight methods, it examines deep structural and cultural tensions. Four archetypal scenarios—Kafka, Sisyphus, Zombie, and Confucius—are used as structured analytical narratives that synthesize recurrent internal configurations through which the institution responds to environmental pressures and institutional uncertainty. The key findings reveal a central institutional tension between emergent sociocultural resilience, grounded in collaboration and the mediating role of local leadership, and persistent vulnerabilities linked to administrative discontinuity, budget instability, and technological obsolescence. Questionnaire data triangulated and validated the qualitative analysis, confirming strong consensus on centralization and resource scarcity as key perceived risks, while indicating divergent assessments regarding governance arrangements. The study concludes that this integrated framework offers a practical diagnostic approach for public managers, supporting institutional reflection and adaptive capacity by rendering systemic risks and cultural patterns visible, open to discussion, and actionable.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Vulnerability Lens for Intuitive-Logic Scenarios","authors":"Guido Fioretti","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploration of possibilities by means of intuitive logic is hampered by a large number of scenarios, which easily exceed the limits imposed by human bounded rationality. While many practitioners constrain their scenarios within a <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 \u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 \u0000 <mo>×</mo>\u0000 \u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $2times 2$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> matrix by design, more structured approaches point to rationales such as eliminating contradictory possibilities, adding opposites to increase diversity, and checking the vulnerability of scenarios with respect to contingencies that are out of control. In general, vulnerability evaluation is based on the assessment of probabilities. With this paper, I propose an evaluation of scenarios' vulnerability based on the structure of connections between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences. Since this method does not require any probability assessment, it can be applied even when reliable estimates of probabilities are not available.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146176677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Automated Technology Foresight for Urban Innovation Ecosystems: A Machine Learning Approach to Real-Time Startup Detection and Technology Trend Mapping in a Mid-Sized City","authors":"Emmanuel Candido Soriente Santos,&nbsp;Hien Duc Han","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of technology-driven enterprises in Adelaide, South Australia, from 2019 to 2022, introducing a novel automated foresight methodology that combines natural language processing, machine learning, and geographic visualization. Using web scraping techniques and social media analytics, we analyzed 4001 posts from 856 founder and employee profiles, 20,000 tweets, and 10,000 news articles to map the emergence of technology hotspots across Greater Adelaide. The findings reveal significant clustering patterns in five key technological categories: machine learning and big data analytics, digital health and medical technology, agricultural technology, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy. Our analysis identifies four primary innovation districts as emerging technology hotspots. The study demonstrates a 40% increase in technology-related activities between 2019 and 2022, with renewable energy showing the most dramatic growth trajectory. The methodology successfully addresses the critical gap between static policy planning and rapidly evolving startup landscapes, providing policymakers and innovation stakeholders with dynamic, fine-grained insights into emerging technology clusters and future innovation trajectories. These findings contribute to understanding regional innovation systems and provide a scalable framework for technology foresight in regional innovation ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146096618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anticipatory Methods for the Emergence of Radically New Technologies: Navigating Uncertainty","authors":"Barbara L. van Veen,&nbsp;J. Roland Ortt","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anticipating the emergence of radically new technologies poses significant methodological challenges due to high uncertainty surrounding their development and diffusion. Conventional forecasting approaches, which rely on stable relationships and historical data extrapolation, are often ill-suited to such conditions. This editorial examines how different anticipatory methods address uncertainty and what this implies for method selection in technology foresight. Drawing on four case studies—quantum technologies in healthcare, fusion energy, defense technologies, and the emergence of technology clusters—the special issue compares horizon scanning, scenario planning, Delphi-based expert elicitation, and computational weak-signal analysis. Using an emerging-technology framework that treats uncertainty as a defining and evolving attribute rather than a temporary knowledge gap, the editorial shows that method suitability depends on the nature and degree of uncertainty; the time horizon becomes meaningful only under specific uncertainty conditions. Foresight methods that structure exploration across multiple plausible futures remain applicable across uncertainty contexts, whereas forecasting is conditionally applicable and depends on predominantly epistemic uncertainty. The comparison further demonstrates that each method has structural limitations, underscoring the need for strategic combinations under higher uncertainty. By positioning uncertainty as the central organizing principle for methodological choice, this editorial contributes to futures and foresight research and offers guidance for designing anticipatory approaches that remain robust under radical uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146083375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leveraging Organizational Ambidexterity for Sustained Growth in Agri-Food Born Global Firms: A Strategic Foresight Approach","authors":"María Reyes-Parga,&nbsp;Àlex Rialp-Criado,&nbsp;Viviana Gutierrez-Rincon","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study advances Strategic Foresight research by developing and applying a hybrid framework to delineate optimal scenarios that balance exploratory and exploitative strategies, fostering sustainable growth in agri-food Born Global Firms navigating post-internationalization complexity and heightened environmental uncertainty. The framework combines grounded qualitative analysis through inductive methods with advanced quantitative and structural techniques, including Fuzzy-MICMAC for mapping interdependencies, Dynamic Causal Loop Diagrams to quantify feedback dynamics, and morphological analysis complemented by hierarchical clustering. Building on recent participatory and computational foresight innovations, this integrative methodology contributes to the diversification of anticipation methods by enabling the systematic quantification of systemic interdependencies and the exploration of multi-dimensional uncertainties in a computationally rigorous yet context-sensitive manner. The resulting scenarios provide actionable strategic roadmaps for BGFs, emphasizing export-oriented alliances, innovation-driven technological exploration, and adherence to international quality standards. These insights support managers and policymakers in designing adaptive strategies that enhance Organizational Ambidexterity and strengthen competitive positioning in volatile global markets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146057900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Knightian Forecasting: Mathematical Models of Ambiguity and the Limits of Probabilistic Prediction","authors":"Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper develops a theoretical framework for forecasting under Knightian uncertainty, where probabilities are not uniquely defined, and ambiguity fundamentally constrains predictive inference. Traditional forecasting relies on single-model probabilistic structures, yet such approaches are often fragile in environments characterized by structural breaks, limited information, and unforeseen shocks. To address this limitation, the study introduces ambiguity envelopes and set-valued forecasts, formalizing predictions that reflect multiple admissible models rather than a single distribution. Building on decision-theoretic foundations, the paper integrates max–min expected utility, variational preferences, and minimax regret to link forecasts directly to robust decision-making. The mathematical models provide empirical foundations for ambiguity-aware forecasting while highlighting implications for evaluation, communication, and practical implementation. The results indicate that forecasting under Knightian uncertainty requires a paradigm shift: moving from precision-oriented prediction toward robustness and resilience. This framework offers a foundation for applying ambiguity-aware forecasting across economics, finance, and policy domains, while it also complements existing robust decision-making methods by providing a formal structure for ambiguity-aware forecast construction within the broader shift from prediction to robustness.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146058009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic Foresight as Policy Infrastructure for Financial Governance: A Multi-Layered Framework for Anticipatory Policymaking in Emerging Economies","authors":"Amir Bahador Morovat,&nbsp;Farhad Nazarizadeh,&nbsp;Ahmad Radan","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article develops a multi-layered framework for understanding how strategic foresight can function as a form of policy infrastructure within financial governance systems, with a particular focus on emerging economies. Drawing on recent literature on anticipatory governance, data-driven regulation, and institutional capacity-building, the paper argues that effective foresight depends not only on methodological tools but on the alignment of political, technical, participatory, and regulatory conditions. A structured review of secondary sources (2020–2024), complemented by descriptive analysis of the experiences of Singapore, India, and the OECD, is used to highlight common patterns in how financial authorities incorporate anticipation into their decision-making environments. These insights are then applied to the Iranian banking sector to illustrate how the proposed framework can organize existing information and reveal practical constraints and opportunities. The paper also outlines three exploratory scenarios for Iran in 2030, derived from the interplay of key technological, regulatory, and geopolitical drivers identified in the study. Rather than offering predictive claims, the analysis provides a structured way of interpreting institutional dynamics and clarifying the types of capabilities required for anticipatory governance in constrained settings. The findings underscore the importance of coherent political sponsorship, reliable data ecosystems, participatory mechanisms, and channels for translating foresight insights into regulatory action. The framework offers policymakers a way to diagnose systemic gaps and consider how foresight can be embedded more effectively within financial governance architectures.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Futures of Everyday Life: A Qualitative Content Analysis of Future Personas in Scenarios","authors":"Gerhard Schönhofer,&nbsp;Pauli Komonen,&nbsp;Jan Oliver Schwarz,&nbsp;Laura Bechthold","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scenario reports, holding a long-standing tradition in foresight and futures studies, act as an essential document for organizations to prepare for possible, plausible, and alternative futures. Focusing on descriptions and representations of everyday life, we examined 29 future persona narratives from six publications—covering a wide field from public to private sector—through qualitative content analysis. Our guiding question is: How can anthropological perspectives such as cultural relativism or postcolonial discourses contribute to an in-depth, qualitative interpretation depictions of future everyday life? Acknowledging anthropology's colonial origins and its growing commitment to the interests of indigenous and other marginalized groups, we offer alternative readings of prominent scenario reports. Our findings suggest that scenario reports, in addition to anticipating possible futures, construct certain futures based on a systematic analysis of empirical data but also speculative interpretation. The results of these interpretative acts often appear elitist, stereotypical, and technocratic, often replicating dominant societal narratives rather than fostering substantive shifts in how the future is imagined. We therefore call for a more polyphonic representation of futures in scenario writing and foresight work that can produce more discontinuous and transformative images of the future. We understand polyphonic representations as coined by various independent, predominant as well as subaltern perspectives on the same issue at stake while being offered the same amount of space. Therefore, as we will indicate in our analysis, most of the reports referred to are rather monophonic and do not offer discuptive perspectives on the future of everyday life. As an avenue of methodological development, we propose a more nuanced and comprehensive perception of culture and social structures in scenario narrative writing. In addition, ethnographic methods could increase our understanding of how futures are collaboratively constructed and produced by different actors and their respective backgrounds and knowledge in scenario processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145904773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic Foresight in the Digital Transformation Era: Roadmapping Inspired by Design Thinking","authors":"Hung Nguyen,&nbsp;Shalini Mohanty,&nbsp;Jae-Yun Ho","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Despite its usefulness as an innovation tool for strategic foresight, conventional roadmapping has several limitations in practice, such as linear tendency, poor articulation of value, difficulty and delay in implementation, and implicit certainty and persistent prejudice, as identified in existing literature. These limitations are further exacerbated in the digital transformation era due to radical and disruptive changes that fundamentally alter systems, calling for more innovative roadmapping practices for strategic foresight to navigate transformative changes. This study examines the potential of integrating design thinking principles and tools with roadmapping to address these challenges. An improved roadmapping process is proposed, by combining conceptual theories from a literature review of strategic roadmapping and design thinking. This process model is tested and further developed via an in-depth case study of an airline company undergoing digital transformation, based on participant observation. Feedbacks and verification interviews demonstrate the benefits of the new roadmapping approach, which incorporates principles of design thinking (e.g., human-centeredness, creative reframing, learning by doing, and divergence and convergence) and relevant tools (e.g., persona, customer journey map, and ideas menu) that are effective for forward-oriented strategic decision making under uncertainty. The proposed roadmapping process can improve firms' strategic foresight by providing informed and practical guidance for systematically designing, organizing, and executing roadmaps in rapidly evolving and highly disruptive environments of digital transformation. This study advances the literature on strategic roadmapping, and enables academic researchers to further explore how design thinking principles and tool-kits can enhance firms' foresight processes and capabilities in managing digital transformation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145887782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}