FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

Simplification errors in predictive models 预测模型的简化误差

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.184

Barbara L. van Veen, J. Roland Ortt

{"title":"Simplification errors in predictive models","authors":"Barbara L. van Veen, J. Roland Ortt","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.184","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.184","url":null,"abstract":"Organizational and political responses to strategic surprises such as the credit crunch in 2008 and the pandemic in 2020 are increasingly reliant on scientific insights. As a result, the accuracy of scientific models has become more critical, and models have become more complex to capture the real-world phenomena as best as they can. So much, so that appeals for simplification are beginning to surface. But unfortunately, simplification has its issues. Too simple models are so generic that they no longer accurately describe or predict real-world cause-effect relationships. On the other hand, too complex models are hard to generalize. Somewhere on the continuum between too simple and too complex lies the optimal model. In this article, the authors contribute to the ongoing discussion on model complexity by presenting a logical and systematic framework of simplification issues that may occur during the conceptualization and operationalization of variables, relationships, and model contexts. The framework was developed with the help of two cases, one from foresight, a relatively young discipline, and the other from the established discipline of innovation diffusion. Both disciplines have a widely accepted foundational predictive model that could use another look. The shared errors informed the simplification framework. The framework can help social scientists to detect possible oversimplification issues in literature reviews and inform their choices for either in- or decreases in model complexity.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140973011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research 不要按错按钮期货研究中的微观视角概念

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.183

Veli Virmajoki, Mika-Petri Laakkonen

{"title":"Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research","authors":"Veli Virmajoki, Mika-Petri Laakkonen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.183","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.183","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we introduce the notion of a microperspective to futures research. Contrary to the more traditional timespans of futures research that are measured in years or decades, a microperspective focuses on shorter timespans that can be measured even in minutes. We point out that the use of a microperspective can provide an understanding of the central issues of futures research from a new angle. These issues involve the difficulties in estimating the future, the entanglement of the future with accounts of it, and the (in)ability to relate to certain futures. We argue that a microperspective can provide an understanding of how patterns shaping the future are created, how people respond to patterns, and how conflicts and misunderstandings shape the future. As an illustrative case, we discuss how the workings of elevators and the development of predictive algorithms in Kone corporation shape the future moment-by-moment in an interaction between the users and the developers. A microperspective shows how the different temporal orientations of the actors and their different interpretations of the environment interact. The case indicates that a microperspective can provide a novel way to study some of the central issues in futures research. The case also indicates that the notion of a microperspective is not merely an academic concept but has practical utility in planning and creating the future.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.183","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141020770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036 军事规划中的科幻小说--盟军指挥转型与 2036 年战争构想

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.181

Elina Hiltunen, Aki-Mauri Huhtinen

{"title":"Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036","authors":"Elina Hiltunen, Aki-Mauri Huhtinen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.181","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.181","url":null,"abstract":"This article focuses on using science fiction for military purposes to anticipate the future of warfare and presents a new tool for creating military science fiction. As technology is a significant driver in the future of warfare, science fiction has increased its popularity for military purposes. Armies and defense organizations have begun utilizing science fiction to anticipate and prepare for future wars. Examples can be found in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Australia, and NATO. Even though military sci-fi is on the rise, there is a lack of a more profound analysis of the sci-fi narratives of the military and its foundations. Allied Command Transformation's, (NATO's Strategic Warfare Development Command) report called Visions of Warfare 2036 (2016) exhibits an example of military-based science fiction employed to anticipate and get prepared for the future of warfare. It includes 12 narratives of the future of warfare varying from gene-manipulated soldiers to AI-generated warfare. By analyzing the report qualitatively using the Atlas.ti program and manual methods, the basic elements of the stories were identified. One of the findings of the analysis was that the stories were somewhat similar to each other. To create more diverse military science fiction scenarios, a new tool: the Military Science Fiction Scenario Card was created. This tool can be used in practical work when thinking about the war of the future and in particular the role of technology in it. It can also be seen as a new tool in the field of futures research.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140659697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Arts-based approaches for futures workshops: Creating and interpreting artistic futures images 以艺术为基础的未来研讨会：创造和诠释未来艺术形象

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.182

Kai Lehikoinen, Satu Tuittila

引用次数: 0

Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty 极端的不确定性需要极端的复原力：确定面临严重不确定性的复杂社会系统的复原力特征

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.179

Leena Ilmola-Sheppard, Phillip White

引用次数: 0

Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach 恢复民主稳定：逆向预测轮方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.180

Rick Szostak

引用次数: 0

Corporate foresight in light of the COVID-19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver? 从 COVID-19 大流行看企业远见--危机是驱动力？

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.178

Theresa C. Schropp, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Fabian Buder

引用次数: 0

Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app 利用互动应用程序进行校准训练，提高概率判断能力

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.177

Ross Gruetzemacher, Kang Bok Lee, David Paradice

引用次数: 0

Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience 整合系统动力学和情景：基于个人经验的框架

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.174

Martin Kunc

引用次数: 0

Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London 公民展望 2040 年的生活：伦敦企业展望定性研究

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.175

Pauli Komonen, Susanne Jacobson

{"title":"Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London","authors":"Pauli Komonen, Susanne Jacobson","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.175","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.175","url":null,"abstract":"Urban living is changing. Citizens explore new lifestyles in practice and envision alternative urban futures. Companies, as significant stakeholders in cities, are building urban infrastructure and serving citizens' needs. To succeed in the future, companies must be able to navigate the complexity and diversity of evolving cities. However, former corporate foresight research on cities is sparse. This participatory corporate foresight study examines city life in 2040 by engaging a group of London citizens with a lead user profile. A qualitative multimethod approach, consisting of online diaries, a futures imagining workshop, and in-depth interviews, explores citizens' images of the future and lifestyle changes. The lifestyle adjustments experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic period have acted as a catalyst for novel personal and communal futures. The broad range of visions included both continuity and discontinuity, with a moderately optimistic undertone, and featured communal, infrastructural, ecological, and technological aspects of life. These visions emphasized sustainability in multiple areas of life and demonstrated the dynamic relationship of the past, present, and future. The methodological contribution of this paper lies in its multimethod approach, which enabled an agile collection of textual and audio-visual datasets in both online and face-to-face contexts. This agility is particularly relevant in a corporate foresight context, where companies must balance efficiency, depth, and applicability while operating under resource constraints. The article also extends the lead user approach's use from individual products and services to the city environment and urban lifestyle in general.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139240017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0