FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"When We Work. Delphi Results on Time and Temporality Within Futures of Work","authors":"Veli Virmajoki,&nbsp;Sirkka Heinonen,&nbsp;Riku Viitamäki,&nbsp;Amos Taylor,&nbsp;Juho Ruotsalainen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines time and temporality as central but often overlooked dimensions that shape the futures of work. While workplace transformation discussions often emphasise spatial aspects of working environments, our study reveals that temporal structures fundamentally determine how work is organised, experienced, and valued. In a two-round Delphi study conducted in 2024, we used a novel Delphi approach with provocations and paradox probing. As a result, we gained understanding on how temporal (i.e., time-related) issues function as critical elements in future work environments. Our findings indicate that novel temporal arrangements and understandings are associated with transformations in working environments. However, the possibility of novel temporal arrangements and their utilisation often follow existing power structures, which create inequities between different sectors, roles, and people. To conceptualise time as an active element rather than neutral background, we contextualise the analysis to literature on time in futures studies and related fields. In this way, our research contributes through the Delphi study to understanding how changing temporalities might affect whether workplace innovations succeed in fostering productivity, well-being, and equity or whether they create novel problems and new forms of exclusion. The results of our Delphi study are particularly timely given how workplaces change in the context of the so-called double twin transition of digital/green and virtual/physical transforming our societies. Where and when cannot be separated when it comes to the futures of work, given the double twin transition.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stakeholder-Driven Consequence Modeling Employing Cross-Impact Balance Scenario Analysis","authors":"Simon Brauner,&nbsp;Stefan Vögele","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Future research, including participatory research, can help to explore stakeholder perspectives. This capability is observable in scenario methods such as the cross-impact balance analysis that aggregates factors from which scenarios and further research opportunities are derivable. In this methodologically oriented paper, a modeling idea is explored, in which consequences are considered as flexible factors in the modeling process, rather than drawing on fixed impact-consequence linkages. The study proposes an extension that explicitly models implicitly acting consequences to increase stakeholder involvement and system understanding. In this regard, the manuscript argues that this approach enables reflection on the modeling and potential results during this process, as they are constructed around these consequences or, more generally, system indicators. Thus, this approach provides an opportunity to integrate cross-impact assessment more effectively into stakeholder dialog by facilitating the tracking and discussion of structures. The study also illustrates the methodological approach by highlighting its application to the topic of water governance. In addition to the potential for utilizing this approach in workshops and participatory co-modeling, the most significant initial finding of this study is that the explication of consequences could serve as a suitable foundation for further studies focusing on stakeholder involvement or impact analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Democratization of Tomorrow's Plate: Synergizing Foresight Methods and Design Thinking in Designing Cellular Agriculture Innovations","authors":"Simbarashe Nhokovedzo,&nbsp;Petri Tapio,&nbsp;Siyada Witoon,&nbsp;Nikita Uverov,&nbsp;Tawanda Prosper Mushayavanhu","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a sustainable design framework for cellular agriculture innovations by integrating foresight methods and design thinking. Importantly, the research connected design thinking, foresight methods and sustainable innovations. The framework systematically aligns foresight methods with the design thinking process, thus enabling cellular agriculture innovators to anticipate long-term challenges and navigate uncertainties. The strengths and limitations of either design thinking or foresight are explored thus rationalizing the need to integrate them. A key research question of the study is: <i>How can foresight methods be systematically integrated with design thinking to enhance the sustainability of Cellular Agriculture innovations?</i> A user-friendly framework is developed by matching foresight methods capabilities and aims of design thinking stages. The paper discusses theoretical and practical implications of the framework while pointing direction of further research in shaping sustainable food systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pratixa: A Cognitive Framework for Behavioral Decision-Making and Its Mathematical Formalization","authors":"Santhosh Kareepadath Rajan","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study introduces <i>pratixa</i>, an internal cognitive structure that functions as a reference architecture guiding human decision-making. <i>Pratixa</i> is a dynamic, event-sensitive archive of anticipated outcomes of behavior, learned event-behavior-outcome associations, and adaptive behavioral responses, drawing on the theories from decision science, psychology, and behavioral adaptation. Past experiences shape <i>pratixa</i>, and iterative learning reinforces it. It supports predictive mental representations by enabling individuals to anticipate the outcomes of their own behavioral responses and adjust those responses when discrepancies arise between anticipated and actual outcomes. <i>Pratixa</i> supports anticipatory learning and real-time correction, making it a future-oriented cognitive structure for decision making. It matures in a spiral progression, from null <i>pratixa</i>, where no prior event-behavior-outcome associations exist, through quixotic <i>pratixa</i>, characterized by illusory or arbitrary associations, to realistic <i>pratixa</i>, where causal relationships are adequately approximated. This spiral maturation reflects how individuals adapt through experiential learning and reinforcement, transitioning from effortful reasoning to increasingly automatic and context-sensitive decision-making. By positioning decision-making within this evolving structure, <i>pratixa</i> offers a distinct perspective on predictive cognition in complex and ambiguous contexts, with implications for strategic foresight, behavioral economics, and adaptive behavioral decision making. The study also proposes a mathematical formulation to represent how this reference architecture evolves through reinforcement-based learning and guides decision-making, providing a computational basis for modeling human foresight and adaptation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interactive Horizon Scanning of the Forest Bioeconomy With a Nested Business Environment Framework","authors":"Tuomas Mauno,&nbsp;Päivi Pelli,&nbsp;David N. Bengston,&nbsp;Jouni Pykäläinen,&nbsp;Teppo Hujala","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In sectors based on renewable resources, foresight studies have often been macro-scale, quantitative outlook studies. As a result, in the complex operating environment of the forest bioeconomy, the organizations and professionals of the emerging bioeconomic sector have not been able to fully utilize futures information in their decision-making processes. This study sought to find solutions to this issue by utilizing a nested business environment framework (NEST framework) in signal interpretation as part of piloting interactive horizon scanning of the forest bioeconomy. In interaction with a diverse group of forest bioeconomy stakeholders, the horizon scanning exercise collected and interpreted signals of change. The aim was to increase forest bioeconomy actors' sense of ownership towards signals information. This study discusses strengths and weaknesses of interactive horizon scanning in the context of the forest bioeconomy and raises awareness of the opportunities and challenges of using a NEST framework in signal interpretation. The study contributes to the analytical tools and has practical implications for interpreting signals of change in the forest bioeconomy and other sectors based on renewable resources. According to the results, the NEST framework used in signal interpretation has strengths, but revealing its full potential requires further development. These developments may include the application of the framework in concrete, timely stakeholder contexts, both involving forest bioeconomy actors and a necessary outside-in perspective from other sectors.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Scenarios With Real-Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities","authors":"Yuri Calleo,&nbsp;Francesco Pilla,&nbsp;Simone Di Zio","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent climatic events, such as coastal erosion, floods, and elevated temperatures, threaten the planet's sustainability and the well-being of European coastal cities. These events are expected to increase significantly, emphasizing the urgent need for careful analysis to inform policy development and prevent dystopian scenarios. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the development of future scenarios is essential for depicting long-term outcomes and facilitating effective planning, which can be achieved using various methods, including the Real-Time Spatial Delphi. This paper applies to the Delphi-based spatial scenario (DBSS), adopting a novel web-based open platform, to obtain spatial convergence of opinions among a panel of experts using spatial analysis and statistical indicators. The DBSS method was applied to 10 European coastal areas in seven different countries, involving 167 experts to assess climate impacts in 2050. This paper introduces for the first time, the concept of Asymptotic Theoretical Consensus to obtain a deeper understanding of the dynamic process, including duration, smoothness of convergence, and stability. The identified scenarios validate the proposed method and provide significant benefits to stakeholders, policymakers, local authorities, and governmental bodies in formulating efficacious strategies and confronting the challenges presented by climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach","authors":"Ludwig Weh","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecosystem scenarios describe possible, probable and desirable developments of the natural environment in the future, often assessed from a natural scientific (biophysical) and social scientific (socioeconomic) perspective. Processing relevant systemic and human behavioral parameters as scenario factors or drivers, different frameworks for ecosystem scenario building have been developed, applied, and evaluated in scientific literature. Increasingly, stakeholder participation has proven a central objective and challenge for these frameworks defining process designs in transdisciplinary domains such as science-society or science-policy interfaces. This article presents a conceptual framework to advance ecosystem scenario projects towards improved stakeholder participation, knowledge inclusivity and process reflexivity. The framework combines epistemological and methodological elements from futures studies with established research practices in ecosystem assessment projects. The framework's dynamic, adaptive character adds deliberative and reflexive elements to process design and application for a more inclusive and stakeholder-oriented research practice. Its novelty lies in the continuous configuration of process variables derived from common dichotomous elements of theoretical scenario classification applied in scenario practice. This approach benefits integrated knowledge management and inclusivity within the framework for multi-method, multi-stakeholder, multi-sector and multi-epistemic scenario processes. In a wider scope of environmental futures approaches, this article details the development, conceptual outline and preliminary application of the participatory framework for testing and evaluation in an ongoing ecosystem scenario project.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144292866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supporting Scenario-Based Decision-Making With Multi-Objective Optimization","authors":"Pekka Korhonen,&nbsp;Juuso Liesiö,&nbsp;Aapo Siljamäki,&nbsp;Jyrki Wallenius","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scenarios are commonly used to support decision-making by evaluating how each decision alternative performs in each scenario. These evaluations are then used to identify the preferred alternative in view of all scenarios. Many suggested approaches interpret scenarios as mutually exclusive states, which enables the use of subjective expected utility (SEU) to aggregate the scenario-specific performance but requires estimates on the scenario probabilities. Other approaches treat scenarios as attributes and utilize multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) to capture alternatives' overall performance, in which case both the likelihood and importance of scenarios are captured by attribute weights. In this paper, we establish a series of theoretical results demonstrating that Pareto optimality serves as a noncontroversial solution concept for both approaches and thus propose using the alternatives' performances in each scenario as the objective functions of a multi-objective optimization model. This allows the use of existing multi-objective optimization approaches, such as Pareto Race and robust portfolio modeling, to support the decision-maker in identifying the preferred alternative. The use of multi-objective optimization avoids the difficult task of eliciting scenario probabilities. We illustrate our ideas with a small-scale example and a scenario-based foresight application, with data from a real-world application.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144185896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Participatory Methods in Corporate Foresight: A Systematic Literature Review of Case Studies and Guidelines for Reporting","authors":"Jörg M. Delhaes,&nbsp;Ana C. L. Vieira,&nbsp;João F. Pimenta,&nbsp;Mónica D. Oliveira","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Case studies developed in real settings are essential to generate insights into Corporate Foresight research, as they provide evidence of the relevance of foresight approaches in practical contexts while inspiring new approaches and applications. Proper reporting of methods used in case study publications is necessary to communicate the results' validity, enable studies' replicability, and learn from practice. A key component of case studies in Corporate Foresight is the design and implementation of participation. Aiming to show how participation has been utilized in the Corporate Foresight field, this study presents a systematic literature review that examines the participatory component of Corporate Foresight case studies published between 2003 and 2023. The review was designed to inform about which contexts have case studies been applied to and which decisions have been supported; which participatory processes and methods have been adopted over time, and whether new processes and methods are being used and shaped by emerging technologies; and whether participatory processes and methods have been documented to enable study replicability and an understanding of participatory processes. For this later purpose, we built a taxonomy to enable analysis of the level of documentation of participation in the reviewed case studies. Results show (i) literature is diverse and growing, but the application of participatory methods is often limited to traditional setups; (ii) few case studies comprehensively describe their participatory component, revealing significant gaps in the documentation required to understand how and why it was designed and implemented. An integrative review helped understand the reasons for these findings and make a case for improving the documentation of participation and exploring the use of novel technologies in Corporate Foresight research. We propose guidelines to help future researchers better document their case studies, enable research replicability, and generate more insights and learnings for future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144185898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avoiding Nightmare Forests: Insights From a Co-Creative Workshop","authors":"Ayonghe Nebasifu,&nbsp;Hanna Ekström,&nbsp;Bogomil Iliev,&nbsp;Sampo Pihlainen,&nbsp;Stefanie Linser,&nbsp;Fredy D. Polo-Villanueva,&nbsp;Anne Viljanen,&nbsp;Martin Charlier,&nbsp;Md. Rayhanur Rahman,&nbsp;Krzysztof Niedzialkowski,&nbsp;Juulia Kuhlman,&nbsp;Aino Assmuth,&nbsp;Derek Garfield,&nbsp;Dalia D'Amato,&nbsp;Nils Droste","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the 1987 UN report “Our Common Future”, aimed at bridging divides among various stakeholders by advocating for “sustainable development”, renewed demands for environmentally adjusted measures have emerged, calling for a future that consolidates socially just, ecologically sound, and economically viable outcomes through sustainable forest management. For Nordic forests, this means policy measures focused on enhancing the forest-based bioeconomy, transitioning to a fossil-free society, adapting to climate change and combatting rapid biodiversity loss while securing continuous timber supply and valuable livelihoods. With expectations for Nordic forests to meet these demands, an impending challenge is how to bring about a desirable future while minimizing uncertainties. Given this urgency, we present a backcasting method applied to a co-creative workshop among research scholars to examine prospective scenarios for Nordic forests, ranging from nightmarish futures to risk-mitigation strategies. The workshop builds on an interdisciplinary research project to provide policy support for sustainable governance. We found that despite fears expressed about an adverse intensive forestry scenario, most participants identified multifunctionality and delivering multiple ecosystem services as critical to the future sustainability of Nordic forests. In addition, participants highlighted the coming need to incorporate hybrid forest management approaches for high-value biodiversity and to consider precautionary measures in forestry decisions. We conclude that approaching the future through a backcasting workshop promises to bring together a broad range of participants to create a common vision.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}