FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

Correction to “The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare”

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70008

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the Use and Utility of Domain Mapping: A Comparative Study of the Future(s) of Diplomacy and International Affairs

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70006

Alex Wilner, Talya Stein

{"title":"Revisiting the Use and Utility of Domain Mapping: A Comparative Study of the Future(s) of Diplomacy and International Affairs","authors":"Alex Wilner, Talya Stein","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Domain mapping is a necessary yet too-easily overshadowed component of strategic foresight. A domain is defined as any topic that serves as the central focus of a foresight project. Domain mapping is the process of conceptually framing its scope, often by way of participatory brainstorming sessions with subject matter experts. Domain mapping should be thought of as a prerequisite to robust foresight research, a crucial and necessary preliminary step that animates all subsequent processes. Our article has two objectives: to reinvigorate the discussion on the use and utility of domain mapping by illustrating how, why, and when to use the technique; and, using a series of nine domain maps created with hundreds of Canadian public servants between 2018 and 2024, to test a novel approach for empirically evaluating the cumulative results of domain mapping by comparatively assessing the thematic shifts policy practitioners have attributed to the future(s) of diplomacy and international affairs. Our approach illustrates how longitudinal empirical studies of domain maps can shed light on the emerging and shifting perspectives of foresight experts and policy practitioners. The paper highlights nine separate uses for the technique, identifies where foresight and domain mapping are currently used within the Canadian government, analyzes an original set of related domain maps, and provides lessons on facilitating, using, and applying domain mapping with a focus on representation, group dynamics, and data quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143690172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

State of the Future 20.0 By Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, and the Millenium Project Team, The Millenium ProjectWashington DC, 470 p text plus appendixes with sources and further information, available through https://millennium-project.org/

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70004

Nikos Kastrinos

引用次数: 0

Collective Sensemaking and Reframing in Futures Thinking Engagements: Lessons From a Responsible Futuring Learning Trajectory

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70002

Julieta Matos-Castaño, Maartje Huinink, Cristina Zaga, Mascha van der Voort

{"title":"Collective Sensemaking and Reframing in Futures Thinking Engagements: Lessons From a Responsible Futuring Learning Trajectory","authors":"Julieta Matos-Castaño, Maartje Huinink, Cristina Zaga, Mascha van der Voort","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How can we facilitate collective sensemaking and reframing processes to foster futures thinking? This paper explores the use of Responsible Futuring, a design-oriented approach, in a learning trajectory for professionals facing complex digital transformations in their organizations. Responsible Futuring supports collective sensemaking and reframing processes across four cognitive and experiential levels: (1) understanding values, (2) imagining, (3) tangibilizing, and (4) introspecting. While the trajectory enabled participants to incorporate diverse perspectives and embrace long-term thinking, our findings revealed a tendency towards solutionism, where participants prematurely focused on specific solutions rather than exploring broader, values-driven futures. In response, we propose four critical areas of attention, including (1) iterative guidance to redirect focus towards broader perspectives, (2) zooming processes to mitigate risks of actor and stakeholder inclusion/exclusion, (3) clearly defined goals in speculative activities to align with learning objectives, and (4) grounding speculative futures in everyday realities to enhance relevance. By addressing these areas, we offer insights for researchers and practitioners aiming to integrate futures-oriented activities into lifelong learning trajectories for communities navigating complex transformations.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can Narrative-Based Scenarios Support Quantitative Judgmental Forecasting?

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70003

Paul Goodwin, George Wright

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Integrating Anticipatory Governance and Causal Layered Analysis: A Novel Theoretical Framework for Long-Term Socioeconomic Development Forecasting

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70001

Quoc Dung Ngo, Vu Hiep Hoang, Thi Van Hoa Tran

{"title":"Integrating Anticipatory Governance and Causal Layered Analysis: A Novel Theoretical Framework for Long-Term Socioeconomic Development Forecasting","authors":"Quoc Dung Ngo, Vu Hiep Hoang, Thi Van Hoa Tran","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This research advances the theoretical foundation of futures studies by developing an innovative methodological framework that integrates anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis (CLA). Contemporary challenges in long-term Socioeconomic development forecasting necessitate more sophisticated analytical approaches capable of addressing increasing complexity and uncertainty. Through systematic synthesis of AG's governance mechanisms with CLA's multi-layered analytical framework, this study establishes a comprehensive methodology for understanding and shaping future trajectories. The research employs a sophisticated mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative economic analysis with qualitative societal assessment across multiple analytical layers. The findings reveal significant theoretical and practical implications through the framework's enhanced capability for simultaneous consideration of immediate governance requirements and deeper societal transformations. The integrated framework demonstrates particular utility in scenario development, yielding four distinct future trajectories ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects substantial economic advancement whilst maintaining social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This research contributes to both theoretical advancement and practical application in futures studies, providing policymakers with sophisticated tools for navigating complex socioeconomic challenges. The framework's emphasis on combining systematic governance approaches with deep cultural analysis establishes a foundation for more nuanced understanding of development trajectories in emerging economies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143380487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Envisioning Future Workforce Adaptability: A Multi-Layered Analysis of Skills Ecosystems in Vietnam's Emerging Economy

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70000

Quoc Dung Ngo, Quynh Hoa Nguyen, Cuong Vu

{"title":"Envisioning Future Workforce Adaptability: A Multi-Layered Analysis of Skills Ecosystems in Vietnam's Emerging Economy","authors":"Quoc Dung Ngo, Quynh Hoa Nguyen, Cuong Vu","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70000","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study employs an innovative integration of Causal Layered Analysis and Futures Studies methodologies to examine persistent skills mismatch issues in rapidly developing labor markets. Through a multi-layered analysis of cultural, systemic, and metaphorical factors, combined with the development of future scenarios, we provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics underlying skills gaps in fast-growing economies. Our research reveals that traditional perceptions of education, systemic inefficiencies, and evolving economic demands contribute significantly to the misalignment between workforce skills and market needs. The study develops four alternative future scenarios, with the “Adaptive Innovation Ecosystem” emerging as the preferred vision for addressing skills mismatch challenges. This scenario emphasizes lifelong learning, AI-driven skills forecasting, and deep industry–education collaboration. Our findings contribute to theoretical understanding and practical policy formulation by bridging deep cultural analysis with forward-looking scenario planning, offering insights for cultivating adaptive workforces in rapidly transforming economies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Horizon Scanning Methods for Identification of New and Repurposed Medicines for Stakeholders in the United Kingdom

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.210

Sarah Khan, Ross Fairbairn, Rhiannon Potter, Amy Hussain, Alex Inskip, Gill Norman

{"title":"Horizon Scanning Methods for Identification of New and Repurposed Medicines for Stakeholders in the United Kingdom","authors":"Sarah Khan, Ross Fairbairn, Rhiannon Potter, Amy Hussain, Alex Inskip, Gill Norman","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.210","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Horizon scanning (HS) is a method for the identification of emerging change through systematic analysis of trusted sources using a defined scope and prespecified methods. In health research, it can provide early awareness of potential developments ahead of market access. Within the medicines space, HS is supported by international requirements for clinical trial registration, conduct and reporting, and by transparent regulatory processes. Potential changes can be identified at different stages of development, emerging, transitional, and imminent to launch. This paper delineates a comprehensive methodological approach for medicines HS within the transitional horizon from a national HS center, the National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory (IO) in the United Kingdom. The UK single-payer healthcare system supports access to medicines approved by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); the assessment process for this requires an early awareness program ahead of regulatory approval. We report an expansive step-by-step HS process at the IO that has been tailored to meet stakeholder requirements. Manual and automated methods are used in tandem to extract and sift data from clinical trial registries, industry databases and medical databases. Intensive industry engagement and news media sources are used to supplement data collection. Data are sifted and triangulated to populate an internal database. Records are monitored to allow tracking of technologies through the pipeline and to trigger our notification processes. This HS program is a potential model for other agencies wishing to establish such an early awareness program internationally.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.210","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who Will Govern Cybersecurity in Spain by 2035? Results From a Delphi Study

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.208

Cristina Del-Real, Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández

{"title":"Who Will Govern Cybersecurity in Spain by 2035? Results From a Delphi Study","authors":"Cristina Del-Real, Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.208","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study explores the future of cybersecurity governance in Spain by 2035, focusing on the roles of public and private actors. Using a two-round Delphi method, we collected insights from experts to evaluate the probability, desirability, and impact of 20 projections for Spain's cybersecurity landscape. The findings suggest a consolidation of multi-stakeholder forms of governance, with public agencies like INCIBE and CCN guiding policy and oversight while private entities deliver essential services. Experts foresee continued collaboration between national and EU institutions, with the EU playing a key role in regulatory coordination. Three governance scenarios emerged: public-centric cybersecurity governance, state-driven cybersecurity assurance, and private monopolistic provision. These scenarios underscore a complex multistakeholder model shaped by collaboration and tension between public and private actors, particularly in light of fragmented ownership over cyberspace resources. This study highlights the need for adaptable governance frameworks that balance regulatory oversight with private sector efficiency, providing insights for stakeholders as they prepare for evolving cyber threats.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.208","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring Pathways for Change: A Practice-Oriented Integration of Foresight and Sustainability Transitions

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.209

Björn Martin Persson, Johnn Andersson, Petter Bertilsson Forsberg

{"title":"Exploring Pathways for Change: A Practice-Oriented Integration of Foresight and Sustainability Transitions","authors":"Björn Martin Persson, Johnn Andersson, Petter Bertilsson Forsberg","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.209","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The world is on a trajectory to exceed the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement. As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, there is a pressing need to fundamentally transform our societies towards just and sustainable futures. This paper presents a practical methodology for guiding collaborative transformation processes towards sustainability. Our aim is to contribute to the development of tools that combine insights from foresight with theories from the sustainability transitions literature, specifically scenario planning and multi-level perspective (MLP) approaches. Foresight and sustainability transitions both aim to understand long-term trends shaping production and consumption systems and guide transitions to more desirable socio-technical regimes. However, few scholars have examined overlaps between the fields and explored the potential for practical integration in workshop settings. The MLP can benefit from scenario planning by incorporating directionality and pluralism of futures in transition processes, while the MLP provides a structure for understanding system dynamics and socio-technical change to scenario planning. In this paper, we share our experiences using an integrated MLP-scenario planning framework in a workshop setting where actors from the Swedish food system explored prospective transitions. Using backcasting and pre-mortem related to regime dimensions from the MLP, participants built a common understanding of events, barriers and pathways associated with four normative scenarios of sustainable food systems. Our results show that the MLP and scenario planning can be integrated and implemented on a practical level to facilitate dialogues on current regime lock-ins and thereby pave the way for transformative change.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.209","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0