FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"Avoiding Nightmare Forests: Insights From a Co-Creative Workshop","authors":"Ayonghe Nebasifu,&nbsp;Hanna Ekström,&nbsp;Bogomil Iliev,&nbsp;Sampo Pihlainen,&nbsp;Stefanie Linser,&nbsp;Fredy D. Polo-Villanueva,&nbsp;Anne Viljanen,&nbsp;Martin Charlier,&nbsp;Md. Rayhanur Rahman,&nbsp;Krzysztof Niedzialkowski,&nbsp;Juulia Kuhlman,&nbsp;Aino Assmuth,&nbsp;Derek Garfield,&nbsp;Dalia D'Amato,&nbsp;Nils Droste","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the 1987 UN report “Our Common Future”, aimed at bridging divides among various stakeholders by advocating for “sustainable development”, renewed demands for environmentally adjusted measures have emerged, calling for a future that consolidates socially just, ecologically sound, and economically viable outcomes through sustainable forest management. For Nordic forests, this means policy measures focused on enhancing the forest-based bioeconomy, transitioning to a fossil-free society, adapting to climate change and combatting rapid biodiversity loss while securing continuous timber supply and valuable livelihoods. With expectations for Nordic forests to meet these demands, an impending challenge is how to bring about a desirable future while minimizing uncertainties. Given this urgency, we present a backcasting method applied to a co-creative workshop among research scholars to examine prospective scenarios for Nordic forests, ranging from nightmarish futures to risk-mitigation strategies. The workshop builds on an interdisciplinary research project to provide policy support for sustainable governance. We found that despite fears expressed about an adverse intensive forestry scenario, most participants identified multifunctionality and delivering multiple ecosystem services as critical to the future sustainability of Nordic forests. In addition, participants highlighted the coming need to incorporate hybrid forest management approaches for high-value biodiversity and to consider precautionary measures in forestry decisions. We conclude that approaching the future through a backcasting workshop promises to bring together a broad range of participants to create a common vision.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Continuous Distributions and Measures of Statistical Accuracy for Structured Expert Judgment","authors":"Guus Rongen,&nbsp;Gabriela F. Nane,&nbsp;Oswaldo Morales-Napoles,&nbsp;Roger M. Cooke","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70009","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;This study evaluates five scoring rules, or measures of statistical accuracy, for assessing uncertainty estimates from expert judgment studies and model forecasts. These rules — the Continuously Ranked Probability Score (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;CRPS&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${CRPS}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;KS&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${KS}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), Cramer-von Mises (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;CvM&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${CvM}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), Anderson Darling (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;AD&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${AD}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), and chi-square test — were applied to 6864 expert uncertainty estimates from 49 Classical Model (CM) studies. We compared their sensitivity to various biases and their ability to serve as performance-based weight for expert estimates. Additionally, the piecewise uniform and Metalog distribution were evaluated for their representation of expert estimates because four of the five rules require interpolating the experts' estimates. Simulating biased estimates reveals varying sensitivity of the considered test statistics to these biases. Expert weights derived using one measure of statistical accuracy were evaluated with other measures to assess their performance. The main conclusions are (1) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;CRPS&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${CRPS}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; overlooks important biases, while chi-square and &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;AD&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${AD}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; behave similarly, as do &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;KS&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${KS}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; and &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;CvM&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${CvM}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;. (2) All measures except &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;CRPS&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foresight-Related Dynamic Capabilities in Finnish Forest-Based Bioeconomy SMEs","authors":"Anu Laakkonen,&nbsp;Aleksi Heiskanen,&nbsp;Annukka Näyhä,&nbsp;Anne Toppinen,&nbsp;Elias Hurmekoski","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A highly uncertain and complex operating environment with numerous sustainability challenges creates pressure on companies and other societal actors to renew their practices and business models. Practicing corporate foresight, that is, applying foresight methods in strategic decision-making, together with a futures-conscious mindset, can help diverse companies to maintain their competitive advantage. Companies' dynamic capabilities on foresight and futures consciousness can facilitate sensing unexpected events, seizing emerging opportunities, and reconfiguring their business models and strategies to respond to changes in the operating environment. This study explored the foresight-related dynamic capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Finnish forest-based bioeconomy. A mixed methods approach was followed in which data were collected from Finnish SMEs using semi-structured interviews and an online questionnaire. The data were analyzed using interpretive content analysis and descriptive statistics. The findings suggest that the included Finnish forest-based bioeconomy SMEs do have the capability to sense and seize opportunities within the changing operating environment. However, the managements' perceptions emphasize short-term operational planning of their activities occurring in a rather closed and predictable environment. There were only limited indications of the capability to reconfigure business models in a futures-conscious way. Thus, it can be suggested that nurturing a more open mindset toward alternative future pathways, recognizing how company actions impact other actors and the operating environment, and utilizing foresight-generated knowledge in strategic planning and decision-making can provide opportunities to create new sources of sustainable competitive advantage.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare”","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hiltunen, E., and Huhtinen, A.-M. 2025. “The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare.” <i>Futures &amp; Foresight Science</i> 7: e200. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.200.</p><p>We apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the Use and Utility of Domain Mapping: A Comparative Study of the Future(s) of Diplomacy and International Affairs","authors":"Alex Wilner,&nbsp;Talya Stein","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Domain mapping is a necessary yet too-easily overshadowed component of strategic foresight. A domain is defined as any topic that serves as the central focus of a foresight project. Domain mapping is the process of conceptually framing its scope, often by way of participatory brainstorming sessions with subject matter experts. Domain mapping should be thought of as a prerequisite to robust foresight research, a crucial and necessary preliminary step that animates all subsequent processes. Our article has two objectives: to reinvigorate the discussion on the use and utility of domain mapping by illustrating how, why, and when to use the technique; and, using a series of nine domain maps created with hundreds of Canadian public servants between 2018 and 2024, to test a novel approach for empirically evaluating the cumulative results of domain mapping by comparatively assessing the thematic shifts policy practitioners have attributed to the future(s) of diplomacy and international affairs. Our approach illustrates how longitudinal empirical studies of domain maps can shed light on the emerging and shifting perspectives of foresight experts and policy practitioners. The paper highlights nine separate uses for the technique, identifies where foresight and domain mapping are currently used within the Canadian government, analyzes an original set of related domain maps, and provides lessons on facilitating, using, and applying domain mapping with a focus on representation, group dynamics, and data quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143690172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State of the Future 20.0 By Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, and  the Millenium Project Team, The Millenium ProjectWashington DC, 470 p text plus appendixes with sources and further information, available through https://millennium-project.org/","authors":"Nikos Kastrinos","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Collective Sensemaking and Reframing in Futures Thinking Engagements: Lessons From a Responsible Futuring Learning Trajectory","authors":"Julieta Matos-Castaño,&nbsp;Maartje Huinink,&nbsp;Cristina Zaga,&nbsp;Mascha van der Voort","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How can we facilitate collective sensemaking and reframing processes to foster futures thinking? This paper explores the use of Responsible Futuring, a design-oriented approach, in a learning trajectory for professionals facing complex digital transformations in their organizations. Responsible Futuring supports collective sensemaking and reframing processes across four cognitive and experiential levels: (1) understanding values, (2) imagining, (3) tangibilizing, and (4) introspecting. While the trajectory enabled participants to incorporate diverse perspectives and embrace long-term thinking, our findings revealed a tendency towards solutionism, where participants prematurely focused on specific solutions rather than exploring broader, values-driven futures. In response, we propose four critical areas of attention, including (1) iterative guidance to redirect focus towards broader perspectives, (2) zooming processes to mitigate risks of actor and stakeholder inclusion/exclusion, (3) clearly defined goals in speculative activities to align with learning objectives, and (4) grounding speculative futures in everyday realities to enhance relevance. By addressing these areas, we offer insights for researchers and practitioners aiming to integrate futures-oriented activities into lifelong learning trajectories for communities navigating complex transformations.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Narrative-Based Scenarios Support Quantitative Judgmental Forecasting?","authors":"Paul Goodwin,&nbsp;George Wright","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Narrative-based scenario planning and forecasting are often regarded as distinct methods for informing decisions subject to risk and uncertainty. This paper compares the approaches and explores the extent to which narrative scenarios can enhance quantitative judgmental forecasts. It argues that scenarios can provide a transparent rationale and context for forecasts, thereby increasing their acceptability. While there is little extant evidence that scenarios can be effective in mitigating judgmental biases in forecasting, this may result from the abbreviated form of the scenarios provided and the non-involvement of forecasters in their development. However, the integration of quantitative forecasting models with scenarios can enhance the former's value—by exposing inconsistencies and discrepancies that may require resolution, and revealing underlying forecast assumptions that need to be both appreciated and monitored.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143497004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Anticipatory Governance and Causal Layered Analysis: A Novel Theoretical Framework for Long-Term Socioeconomic Development Forecasting","authors":"Quoc Dung Ngo,&nbsp;Vu Hiep Hoang,&nbsp;Thi Van Hoa Tran","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This research advances the theoretical foundation of futures studies by developing an innovative methodological framework that integrates anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis (CLA). Contemporary challenges in long-term Socioeconomic development forecasting necessitate more sophisticated analytical approaches capable of addressing increasing complexity and uncertainty. Through systematic synthesis of AG's governance mechanisms with CLA's multi-layered analytical framework, this study establishes a comprehensive methodology for understanding and shaping future trajectories. The research employs a sophisticated mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative economic analysis with qualitative societal assessment across multiple analytical layers. The findings reveal significant theoretical and practical implications through the framework's enhanced capability for simultaneous consideration of immediate governance requirements and deeper societal transformations. The integrated framework demonstrates particular utility in scenario development, yielding four distinct future trajectories ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects substantial economic advancement whilst maintaining social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This research contributes to both theoretical advancement and practical application in futures studies, providing policymakers with sophisticated tools for navigating complex socioeconomic challenges. The framework's emphasis on combining systematic governance approaches with deep cultural analysis establishes a foundation for more nuanced understanding of development trajectories in emerging economies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143380487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Envisioning Future Workforce Adaptability: A Multi-Layered Analysis of Skills Ecosystems in Vietnam's Emerging Economy","authors":"Quoc Dung Ngo,&nbsp;Quynh Hoa Nguyen,&nbsp;Cuong Vu","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70000","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study employs an innovative integration of Causal Layered Analysis and Futures Studies methodologies to examine persistent skills mismatch issues in rapidly developing labor markets. Through a multi-layered analysis of cultural, systemic, and metaphorical factors, combined with the development of future scenarios, we provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics underlying skills gaps in fast-growing economies. Our research reveals that traditional perceptions of education, systemic inefficiencies, and evolving economic demands contribute significantly to the misalignment between workforce skills and market needs. The study develops four alternative future scenarios, with the “Adaptive Innovation Ecosystem” emerging as the preferred vision for addressing skills mismatch challenges. This scenario emphasizes lifelong learning, AI-driven skills forecasting, and deep industry–education collaboration. Our findings contribute to theoretical understanding and practical policy formulation by bridging deep cultural analysis with forward-looking scenario planning, offering insights for cultivating adaptive workforces in rapidly transforming economies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}