FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"Drivers of Change: Experts' Perceptions of European Agri-Food and Livestock Farming Systems","authors":"Hermine Mitter,&nbsp;Christina Bolkart,&nbsp;Katrin Karner","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Transforming agri‑food and livestock farming systems to increase their sustainability and climate resilience requires a clear understanding of what drives change and how driving forces are related. This study increases systems knowledge by identifying driving forces and actors that shape European agri-food and livestock farming systems, examining changes in experts' perceptions over a 5-year period, and exploring perceived relationships among the driving forces. We conducted semi-structured interviews and an expert workshop in two research phases and examined the collected data with a qualitative content analysis to identify driving forces, actors, and causal relationships. We then calculated three similarity coefficients to quantify the overlap between reported driving forces in these phases for each engaged organization and performed structural analyses of the empirically derived system diagram. In total, we identified 50 (79) driving forces for European agri-food (livestock farming) systems, 50%–71% of which were mentioned consistently in both phases. Four driving forces, namely the <i>European import of agricultural commodities, per-capita-meat demand, speed of agricultural technology development</i>, and <i>technology uptake</i>, were universally recognized as important by all participating experts in both phases. The study identified two additional promising drivers of change in livestock farming systems: <i>increasing political attention to climate change mitigation and adaptation</i> and <i>citizens' environmental awareness</i>. By integrating diverse perspectives, this study enhances our system‑level understanding of drivers of change in European agri‑food and livestock farming systems. This increased knowledge supports the alignment of agricultural and climate policies that can transform these systems, thus increasing their sustainability and climate resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148994392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seniority and Decision-Making Performance in Critical Facilities Management: A Single-Round Delphi-Calibrated Simulation Approach","authors":"Robson Quinello","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70051","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This exploratory study examines how professional seniority relates to decision-making performance in critical facilities management (CFM), focusing on stage-level variation in response quality and operational response time during critical incidents. A sequential multi-phase design was adopted. A single-round Delphi-calibrated expert assessment (<i>n</i> = 14) was used to construct an expert-informed exploratory benchmark for sequential decision alignment across six operational stages. This was followed by a controlled simulation (<i>n</i> = 41) in which participants responded to a standardized server-room overheating scenario characterized by uncertainty, time pressure, and incomplete information. Performance was evaluated using response time and two complementary indicators: strict alignment with the expert-informed benchmark and a continuous metric based on normalized distance from the calibrated decision reference structure. The results showed substantial stage-level variation in performance quality, with the diagnostic stage presenting the greatest divergence from the expert-informed benchmark. More experienced participants were descriptively faster, although exploratory analyses suggested limited association between response time and benchmark alignment. No consistent differences in overall performance quality were observed between experience groups. Additional exploratory findings indicated that domain-specific technical exposure may contribute to closer alignment with expert-informed decisions among less-experienced professionals. The findings should be interpreted within the constraints of an exploratory single-scenario simulation design. The use of a single-round Delphi-calibrated procedure, subgroup imbalance, and group-based comparisons limits causal inference and external generalizability. Even so, the study contributes methodologically by integrating simulation-based assessment with a continuous benchmark-alignment metric capable of preserving stage sensitivity and capturing partial decision proximity in complex socio-technical operational environments.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148965577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural Analysis of Urban Resilience Indicators in Future-Oriented Urban Development in Tabriz","authors":"Masoud Haghlesan","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70054","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Urban resilience has become a cornerstone of sustainable urban development in an increasingly hazardous world, driven by climate change, rapid socio-economic transformations, and persistent environmental degradation. Despite its recognized importance, a forward-looking, structural analysis of the key determinants of resilience, particularly in developing regions, remains lacking. Addressing this gap, this study aims to identify the most influential urban resilience indicators and determine their cause-and-effect relationships to prioritize future development strategies for Tabriz, Iran. The research methodology unfolded in two phases: first, a Delphi survey with 25 experts identified the most critical variables; subsequently, a cross-impact analysis using MICMAC software systematically examined the interrelationships among four principal dimensions, comprising 20 indicators. The findings reveal a clear hierarchy of influence. The environmental indicator emerged as the most influential (impact score: 216), exerting the strongest effect on Tabriz's capacity to adapt to change. It was followed, in descending order, by the physical (191), economic (183), and social (173) indicators. These results underscore the critical importance of prioritizing environmental considerations in urban resilience planning. By offering a structured and prospective framework for assessing resilience, this study contributes to the field and provides practical insights for planners and policymakers in Iran and other developing contexts to build more robust and sustainable cities.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148965580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Augmenting Expertise in Organizational Foresight: The Role of GenAI in Collaborative Settings","authors":"Lukas Zumbrunn","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the transformative potential of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) in organizational foresight by examining not only whether human−AI collaboration occurs, but how different collaboration designs shape foresight quality. As organizations navigate increasingly complex and uncertain environments, the traditional reliance on human expertise for foresight activities requires re-evaluation. Drawing on bounded rationality, dual-process theory, and sensemaking as an integrated set of microfoundations, the paper argues that GenAI roles alter attention, search breadth, and cognitive friction in ways that influence scenario diversity, weak signal detection, assumption surfacing, and strategic recommendation quality. Through a literature review and the application of a 2 × 2 matrix deductive scenarios method, four ideal-typical roles of GenAI in organizational foresight are identified: Resilience Builder, Ally Insider, Provoking Catalyst, and Critical Outsider. The findings suggest that these roles are best understood as contingent collaboration modes that can be sequenced across different phases of the foresight process, expanding debate on expertise, workflow design, and the conditions under which GenAI strengthens or weakens strategic foresight.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70052","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148965579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foundations for Anticipating Future Reactions to an Astrobiological Discovery on Mars: A Mixed-Methods Study in Greece","authors":"George Profitiliotis,&nbsp;Kostas Theologou","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This work demonstrates a preliminary empirical investigation of key psychological foundations underpinning Greek adult nonexperts' prospections about a future announcement of an astrobiological discovery on Mars. A mixed-methods exploratory sequential design was used to study the breadth and depth of imagined individual reactions. Our results revealed the presence of common patterns, both in imaginings of a speculative extraterrestrial microorganism on Mars and in the cognitive, affective, and behavioral components that construe people's imagined attitude toward it. Our findings also lent support to the presence of an existential psychological mechanism by which an astrobiological discovery suggesting higher relative degree of extraterrestrial cognitive capability can have a larger relative impact on one's worldview, for both “believers” and “nonbelievers” in extraterrestrial life. These outcomes contribute to the advancement of a nonpredictive, anticipatory research program for proactively guiding humans' reactions to a discovery of extraterrestrial life—especially toward protecting any extant Martian lifeforms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148965656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bias in Expert Judgment Within Large-Scale Science and Technology Delphis: What Do We Know (and Not Know) and Can Utilization of Panelists' Rationales Help Reduce Potential Bias?","authors":"Xinyu Jiang,&nbsp;Ian Belton,&nbsp;George Wright","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we offer a critique of Sokolov, Grebenyuk, and Urashima's paper, “Biases in expert judgments in large-scale S&amp;T Delphi surveys: how to cope with them?”, published in the journal <i>Technological Forecasting &amp; Social Change</i> in 2025. Although their paper makes a valuable contribution by drawing attention to the \u0000<span>potential</span> existence of bias in expert judgment, the authors misunderstand both the purpose of Delphi applications and the concept of bias, and, further, their analysis of secondary data lacks rigor. Together, these shortcomings negate the validity of their inferences on the prevalence of expert bias in large-scale Science &amp; Technology (S&amp;T) Delphi applications as well as the relevance of their proposed remedial interventions. We argue that future empirical work should adopt a more conceptually grounded and methodologically robust approach, one that distinguishes between (i) legitimate expert/non-expert divergence in opinions and (ii) genuine cognitive or motivational bias in expert judgment. We recommend the utilization of panelists' rationales as a key component of both future practice and underpinning laboratory-based research.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148467139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Delphi Participant as an Ancestor: Introducing the Ubuntu Intergenerational Primer for Mitigating Future Discounting Bias in Southern Africa Collectivist Culture","authors":"Simbarashe Nhokovedzo,&nbsp;Norbert Kolos,&nbsp;Petri Tapio,&nbsp;Geci Karuri-Sebina","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces the Ubuntu Intergenerational Primer (UIP), a culturally grounded cognitive debiasing intervention designed to mitigate future discounting bias among Real-Time Delphi (RTD) participants in Southern Africa. Learning from prior research engagements and informed by the region's cultural settings, we innovated around the Rip Van Winkle (RVW) technique to produce a more contextually appropriate debiasing tool. In contrast to the RVW individualistic orientation, the UIP situates the Delphi participant within the collectivist Ubuntu-Intergenerational relationship. The tool positions a Delphi participant as an ancestor fielding questions about the future to a hypothetical future grandchild living in 2070. Implemented as a pre-survey cognitive priming exercise, the UIP preceded the main RTD survey that explored the futures of cultured meat in Southern Africa by 2070. The RTD data from 35 participants (<i>n</i> = 35) were analyzed through the Social Practice Theory (SPT) lens. The findings suggest that the UIP functioned as a cognitive scaffold that extended participant's temporal horizons and hence reduced future discounting bias. From the SPT perspective, the primer influenced the meanings associated with cultured meat more than the materials and competencies as enquiries on legacy, responsibility and obligations to future generations dominate. However, while the primer appeared to mitigate future discounting, it may also have simultaneously introduced kinship and legacy biases by directing focus towards imagined descendants. The study contributes methodologically to futures studies by demonstrating how culturally embedded intergenerational cognitive scaffolding deepens engagement with long-term futures, contextually to Southern Africa. Overall, the findings suggest that UIP offers a promising mechanism for enriching participatory foresight while recommending some further experimental validation.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148467349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Greatest Mystery of Futures Studies","authors":"Veli Virmajoki","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Futures studies has long lived with a puzzle: every domain the field investigates is already studied by some special science. Three familiar replies—that futures studies extracts insights, takes a longer view, or includes lay perspectives—each capture something real but do not, on closer inspection, individuate the field at the level of its object. A proper object, we argue, is the <i>possibility space</i>, a structured field that is, in essence, constitutively modal, multi-domain, anchored in contested presents, and reflexively shaped by accounts of itself. Futures studies and the special sciences are, probably, doing complementary cognitive labor rather than competing.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148324244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calibration of Retrospective and Prospective Life Satisfaction Judgments Around the World","authors":"David R. Mandel,&nbsp;Ethan A. Meyers,&nbsp;Philip Omorogbe","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is both a physical and psychological fact that humans have access to records of the past but not to records of the future. Due to this epistemic asymmetry in time, we hypothesized that retrospection about past psychological states will be better calibrated than prospection about future psychological states. Leveraging data from the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, involving 61,271 participants sampled across 34 countries, we examined the calibration and bias of individuals' evaluations of past and future life satisfaction relative to present evaluations. We employed novel methods for the analysis of calibration and bias in multi-wave, cross-sectional data. A multi-method analysis contrasted individual and national-level evaluations of life satisfaction across two cross-sectional waves, 5 years apart, with numerous control variables to account for potential confounding factors. We observed miscalibration in prospective judgments of future life satisfaction, whereas retrospective judgments of past life satisfaction showed no meaningful miscalibration. The findings support the epistemic asymmetry hypothesis that there is a psychological effect of the physical arrow of time on human judgment, robust across diverse samples worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148282108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Choices and Individuals' Attitudes From the Perspective of Imaginary Future Generations—A Discussion Experiment With City Officials on Carbon Neutrality","authors":"Keishiro Hara,&nbsp;Yutaka Iwasaki,&nbsp;Yukari Fuchigami","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we demonstrate the effects of adopting “imaginary future generations (IFGs),” which has been proven to be effective for generating futurability in individuals, on policy choices and individual attitudes toward environmentally friendly behavior. We conducted a series of discussion experiments on the theme of carbon neutrality with the participation of city officials in Suita City, Osaka, Japan. Based on the discussion results, as well as those of a questionnaire survey administrated to the same participants, we analyzed the effects of adopting IFGs. We found that as a result of adopting IFGs, (1) changes occur in policymaking details and policy selection; and (2) changes could occur in individual behavior, possibly creating motivation for installing photovoltaics and purchasing environmentally friendly cars. We conclude that the practices to discuss future issues and policy measures from the perspective of IFGs may not only lead to changes in decision-making of policy choices, but also provide incentives to change the perception and attitude of policymakers. We found that by looking at the issues from the perspective of future generations, incentives can be created to change personal attitudes toward pro-environmental behavior. This exploratory study provides important insights both for Future Design and research fields related to pro-environmental behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148282072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}