FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

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Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021 期货领域的严谨性和多样性:Fergnani和Chermack评论2021
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.69
Matti Minkkinen
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引用次数: 1
The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute-force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting 模拟宣言:蛮力经验主义在地缘政治预测中的局限性
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-13 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.64
Ian S. Lustick, Philip E. Tetlock
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引用次数: 15
The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it 在未来和预见中对科学理论的抵制,以及如何应对
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.61
Alessandro Fergnani, Thomas J. Chermack
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引用次数: 20
Thematic reflections on 18 expert commentaries 对18篇专家评论的专题思考
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-10-18 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.57
Paul J. H. Schoemaker
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引用次数: 0
Future-ography Future-ography
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-10-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.53
David J. Staley
{"title":"Future-ography","authors":"David J. Staley","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.53","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.53","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"2 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.53","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132005491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Mont Fleur scenarios and particular histories: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020 弗勒山的场景和特殊历史:对Schoemaker 2020的评论
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-09-11 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.54
Pieter le Roux
{"title":"The Mont Fleur scenarios and particular histories: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020","authors":"Pieter le Roux","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.54","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.54","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"2 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.54","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92999964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Past‐future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020 过去与未来的协同效应:Schoemaker 2020评论
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.51
D. Önkal, Shari De Baets
{"title":"Past‐future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020","authors":"D. Önkal, Shari De Baets","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.51","url":null,"abstract":"Historical Analysis Can Scenario the differences and similarities between historical analysis and historians are on the Schoemaker an informative analysis of how operate and the with a scenario planning exer cise on South Africa's post-apartheid the notion that and planners very much learn each other” with the and","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86628212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foresight, hindsight and postcolonial thought: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020 远见,后见之明和后殖民思想:评论舍梅克2020
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.52
Eilidh Wright
{"title":"Foresight, hindsight and postcolonial thought: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020","authors":"Eilidh Wright","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.52","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.52","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"2 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.52","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"106039203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Past-future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020 过去与未来的协同效应:对Schoemaker 2020的评论
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.51
Dilek Önkal, Shari De Baets
{"title":"Past-future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020","authors":"Dilek Önkal,&nbsp;Shari De Baets","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.51","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Schoemaker's paper “How Historical Analysis Can Enrich Scenario Planning” expertly portrays the differences and similarities between historical analysis and scenario planning. While both fields study developments over time, historians are focused on looking backward while scenario planners look forward. Examining the parallels, Schoemaker gives an informative analysis of how both fields operate and illustrates the challenges with a 1992 scenario planning exercise on South Africa's post-apartheid future. He concludes with the notion that “..historians and scenario planners can very much learn from each other” with the qualifier that this will be challenging, as both disciplines are still developing learning and research methods within their own respective fields.</p><p>The paper is extremely timely as academics and practitioners are trying to make sense of (and learn from) the unexpected developments perturbing world platforms via Covid-19. Ironically, many countries and organizations have had scenarios for pandemic outbreaks for years. Still, COVID-19 came as a surprise. It appears that no effective planning was done, no proactive measures were taken and governments were overwhelmed while experts warned for similarities to historical outbreaks and drew attention to lessons learned from past epidemics (Snowden, <span>2020</span>). The turbulence surrounding Covid-19 presents a productive living and learning laboratory that confirms the importance of how historical analysis can enrich scenario planning as suggested by Schoemaker; and it also highlights how constructing scenarios are not sufficient if they do not translate to forecasts and actions.</p><p>Our efforts to better understand how historical analysis-scenario planning dynamics could lead to improved forecasts and decisions will need to include studies on biases and informational asymmetries that permeate past–future synergies. Biases are systematic deviations from norm or rationality in judgment, influenced by the context and framing of information (Hasselton, Nettle, &amp; Andrew, <span>2005</span>). The literature on biases is extensive and reaches back to Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's seminal work (Tversky &amp; Kahneman, <span>1974</span>). Biases play a key role in the context of foresight and scenario processes (Bradfield, <span>2008</span>; Schirrmeister, Göhring, &amp; Warnke, <span>2019</span>; Schoemaker, <span>1993</span>; Wack, <span>1985</span>), while also affecting the way we view historical events (Mccullagh, <span>2002</span>; Mukharji &amp; Zeckhauser, <span>2019</span>).</p><p>The work on biases can provide an additional perspective to Schoemaker's portrayal of similarities and differences between the two fields. One crucial lesson learned from this paper is that we will be better in looking forward (scenario planning) if we learn how to look back (historical analysis of information). While this is a valid point, historical analysis can be subject to misinformati","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"2 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.51","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91852433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020 社会科学中的历史方法:对Schoemaker 2020的评论
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.55
Johann Peter Murmann
{"title":"Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020","authors":"Johann Peter Murmann","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.55","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.55","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"2 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.55","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"98148899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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