FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

{"title":"Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios","authors":"Kristian Skånberg,&nbsp;Åsa Svenfelt","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.116","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight-step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man-made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back-bone instrument in making the energy system fossil-free will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137506921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A timely (and timeless) blend of theory and practice: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)","authors":"Gary Bowman","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.113","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.113","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The integration of theory and practice is a significant aspect of modern academia. Prompted by Rowland and Spaniol's review and celebration of <i>Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation</i>, I reflect briefly on the impact of Kees van der Heijden and his contribution to the theoretical and practical development of scenario planning research.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84304923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt","authors":"Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy, D. Tuckett","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.111","url":null,"abstract":"Institutional decisions about the future, that matter, are usually made in a context of considerable uncertainty. Although the intention is success the possibility of failure must inevitably be present, whether recognized or not. The principal purposes of this study are twofold. First, we argue that uncertainty contexts require that decisions to create the future are supported by a particular type of future oriented or foresight narrative which we call a conviction narrative . Its essential function is to combine available knowledge about how to achieve desired outcomes with the feeling that the selected action will achieve the aim. Second, we introduce two states, in which conviction may be achieved, divided, and integrated, to argue that research into how conviction is achieved by individuals or institutions making decisions, can be an extremely promising and practical avenue for foresight studies, throwing light on several issues, particularly the oft ‐ noted reluctance to change course and attachment to single stories of the future. The focus on the reality of uncertainty and the two states in which it can be met, can also enhance the research and practice of narrative foresight, through more systematic theorization of the role of emotion and ambivalence in narrative thought and in the processes through which future ‐ focused narratives generate action under uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82200918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Shell engineer to social architect and thought leader: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)","authors":"Paul J. H. Schoemaker","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.115","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.115","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77045091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Professor Kees van der Heijden: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)","authors":"Ronald M. Bradfield","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.114","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.114","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Working with Kees as his apprentice scenario planner, I have been fortunate to have participated in many scenario workshops, both on the Strathclyde MBA program and with organizations. Alongside these workshops, I am also very privileged to have been an assistant to Kees on a number of scenario projects with organizations in a range of countries. I have learned many things in the time spent with Kees, and consider his book, “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation” to be the definitive field guide to the art and craft of scenario planning, albeit there have been a plethora of books on the subject since. The objective of this commentary is to discuss from a practical perspective, three things I have learned from my years of experience with Kees which have proved useful in my scenario work with client organizations, namely the elicitation of client views and insights, the value of the “Business Idea” and the scenario development timescale</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89571198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management","authors":"Arbrie Jashari,&nbsp;Victor Tiberius,&nbsp;Marina Dabić","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.109","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.109","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Business and management research on scenarios has been highly productive over the decades but led to a complex literature that is hard to oversee. To organize the field and identify distinguishable research clusters, we conducted a co-citation analysis focusing on the long-term history of research. We compare our findings with a previously published bibliographic coupling, focusing on the more recent research to trace its development over time. Our study revealed six research clusters: (1) Planning the Future with Scenarios, (2) Scenario Planning in Strategic Management, (3) Reinforcing the Scenario Technique, (4) Integration of Scenario Planning and MCDA, (5) Combination of Different Methods, and (6) Decision-making through Stochastic Programming, whereas the bibliographic coupling generated 11 clusters. Some former research clusters were divided into separate new clusters, while others were united. Additionally, completely new clusters emerged. Future research on scenarios is expected (1) to further differentiate into strategy and operations, (2) to be based on “behavioral futures” or “behavioral foresight” as a new research stream, (3) to advance the scenario technique methodically and include new specific scenario generation methods, and (4) to put forth new application areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.109","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90144541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Start-ups and the art of ignoring the future: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021","authors":"Rixa Georgi-Kröhl","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.108","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.108","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Record amounts of money flowed into start-ups in 2020 and yet, founders are acting detached from the future. At the same time, the range of entrepreneurship-related programs has multiplied. Scenario-based planning must become a mandatory part of those programs. To keep the strategic conversation with and about scenarios going.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72790908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)","authors":"Heiko A. von der Gracht","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.107","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.107","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This commentary refers to the retrospective review by Rowland and Spaniol in <i>Futures and Foresight Science</i> (2021), which provides interesting insights into Kees van der Heijden's character and work 25 years after his famous book <i>Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation</i> was first published. The commentator draws on his own personal experience of Kees' work and book, including a seminar with him at the University of Oxford in 2011, as well as applying the book's fundamentals in his own research and advisory work over the past ten years.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.107","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"103386192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kees van der Heijden, a personal reflection: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021","authors":"Trudi Lang","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.110","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.110","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This piece is a personal reflection on the work and impact of Kees van der Heijden as part of the retrospective book review by Rowland and Spaniol (2021).</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.110","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91519149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“It depends on the client”—Kees van der Heijden and client-centric scenario planning: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021","authors":"Rafael Ramirez","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.106","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>October 9, 2021</p><p>The “it depends on the client” mantra highlighted by Matt Spaniol in this essay about Kees van der Heijden's approach to scenario planning brought me back to an experience, from 1986 to 1991, when Kees and the late Jaap Leemhuis were the clients with whom Richard Normann and I worked in the so-called “Shell Manufacturing Reorientation Project”.</p><p>The way Jaap and Kees acted as clients, with Richard and I as advisors, taught me a lot about how clients and advisors can collaborate effectively and work together in scenario planning and beyond.</p><p>My recollection of this intervention benefits from its having been written up already twice. The first write-up of that experience was by Peter Checkland and Scholes (<span>1999</span>). I find it fascinating how Checkland, who was a consultant to Shell alongside Normann and Ramirez, saw “the same” engagement so differently from how I remember seeing it. This difference is reminiscent of Gareth Morgan's excellent 1983 book “<i>Beyond Method</i>” (Morgan, <span>1983</span>), where he contrasted 20 well-accepted methods in the social sciences with which to consider organizational phenomena, and where he showed how a given situation is seen uniquely with the lens of one method, while it is inescapably to be seen very differently with the lens of another. Importantly, for efforts in scenario planning to mix methods and to attempt to produce “hybrid” methods, Morgan found that as there is no meta-method providing a “neutral” (meta-)stance from which to assess different methods. Instead, he found that any comparison among methods must inevitably be from the stance of one single method. The one method whose stance is used to assess the other methods frames all of them, and this perspective in effect entails a “hostile” takeover of the other methods which are compared from its own specific stance. Morgan's conclusion was that all we can do is see a situation from the individual points of view afforded by different methods, and then seek to learn about the situation we are examining from and with these differences. Not coincidentally, this is also what scenario planning seeks to help its users to do—to see the here and now from the point of view of different and contrasting stances in the conceptual future.</p><p>My experience of this intervention was also about how difficult it is to work with soft systems and scenario planning concurrently (cf., Lang &amp; Allen, <span>2008</span>). But if anyone has the intelligence, skill, nuance, and patience to do so, Kees certainly would come top of mind as someone who can succeed—and indeed he adapted the CATWOE mnemonic from soft systems methodology in the second edition of his book, repurposing it into the VOCATE analysis as part of contracting with a client. My colleague Trudi Lang tells me that this emerged after a strategic conversation organized at Curtin Business School in Perth in which Kees and Peter were hosted to explore the two met","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81314743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}