整合预期治理与因果分层分析:长期社会经济发展预测的新理论框架

Quoc Dung Ngo, Vu Hiep Hoang, Thi Van Hoa Tran
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过开发一种整合预期治理(AG)和因果分层分析(CLA)的创新方法框架,为期货研究奠定了理论基础。长期社会经济发展预测的当代挑战需要更复杂的分析方法,能够解决日益增加的复杂性和不确定性。本研究通过将公司治理机制与CLA的多层分析框架系统地综合起来,建立了一个理解和塑造未来轨迹的综合方法。该研究采用复杂的混合方法,将定量经济分析与跨多个分析层的定性社会评估相结合。研究结果揭示了重要的理论和实践意义,因为该框架增强了同时考虑当前治理需求和更深层次社会变革的能力。综合框架在情景发展中显示出特别的效用,产生了从低增长到变革性变化的四种不同的未来轨迹。首选方案以适应性变化为特征,在保持社会凝聚力和环境可持续性的同时,实现经济的实质性发展。本研究对未来研究的理论发展和实际应用都有贡献,为政策制定者应对复杂的社会经济挑战提供了先进的工具。该框架强调将系统化的治理方法与深入的文化分析相结合,为更细致地理解新兴经济体的发展轨迹奠定了基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Integrating Anticipatory Governance and Causal Layered Analysis: A Novel Theoretical Framework for Long-Term Socioeconomic Development Forecasting

This research advances the theoretical foundation of futures studies by developing an innovative methodological framework that integrates anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis (CLA). Contemporary challenges in long-term Socioeconomic development forecasting necessitate more sophisticated analytical approaches capable of addressing increasing complexity and uncertainty. Through systematic synthesis of AG's governance mechanisms with CLA's multi-layered analytical framework, this study establishes a comprehensive methodology for understanding and shaping future trajectories. The research employs a sophisticated mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative economic analysis with qualitative societal assessment across multiple analytical layers. The findings reveal significant theoretical and practical implications through the framework's enhanced capability for simultaneous consideration of immediate governance requirements and deeper societal transformations. The integrated framework demonstrates particular utility in scenario development, yielding four distinct future trajectories ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects substantial economic advancement whilst maintaining social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This research contributes to both theoretical advancement and practical application in futures studies, providing policymakers with sophisticated tools for navigating complex socioeconomic challenges. The framework's emphasis on combining systematic governance approaches with deep cultural analysis establishes a foundation for more nuanced understanding of development trajectories in emerging economies.

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CiteScore
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