FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

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Leveraging Organizational Ambidexterity for Sustained Growth in Agri-Food Born Global Firms: A Strategic Foresight Approach 利用组织双重性促进农业食品诞生的全球性公司的持续增长:战略前瞻方法
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70034
María Reyes-Parga, Àlex Rialp-Criado, Viviana Gutierrez-Rincon
{"title":"Leveraging Organizational Ambidexterity for Sustained Growth in Agri-Food Born Global Firms: A Strategic Foresight Approach","authors":"María Reyes-Parga,&nbsp;Àlex Rialp-Criado,&nbsp;Viviana Gutierrez-Rincon","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study advances Strategic Foresight research by developing and applying a hybrid framework to delineate optimal scenarios that balance exploratory and exploitative strategies, fostering sustainable growth in agri-food Born Global Firms navigating post-internationalization complexity and heightened environmental uncertainty. The framework combines grounded qualitative analysis through inductive methods with advanced quantitative and structural techniques, including Fuzzy-MICMAC for mapping interdependencies, Dynamic Causal Loop Diagrams to quantify feedback dynamics, and morphological analysis complemented by hierarchical clustering. Building on recent participatory and computational foresight innovations, this integrative methodology contributes to the diversification of anticipation methods by enabling the systematic quantification of systemic interdependencies and the exploration of multi-dimensional uncertainties in a computationally rigorous yet context-sensitive manner. The resulting scenarios provide actionable strategic roadmaps for BGFs, emphasizing export-oriented alliances, innovation-driven technological exploration, and adherence to international quality standards. These insights support managers and policymakers in designing adaptive strategies that enhance Organizational Ambidexterity and strengthen competitive positioning in volatile global markets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146057900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knightian Forecasting: Mathematical Models of Ambiguity and the Limits of Probabilistic Prediction 奈特预测:模糊的数学模型和概率预测的极限
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70033
Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas
{"title":"Knightian Forecasting: Mathematical Models of Ambiguity and the Limits of Probabilistic Prediction","authors":"Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper develops a theoretical framework for forecasting under Knightian uncertainty, where probabilities are not uniquely defined, and ambiguity fundamentally constrains predictive inference. Traditional forecasting relies on single-model probabilistic structures, yet such approaches are often fragile in environments characterized by structural breaks, limited information, and unforeseen shocks. To address this limitation, the study introduces ambiguity envelopes and set-valued forecasts, formalizing predictions that reflect multiple admissible models rather than a single distribution. Building on decision-theoretic foundations, the paper integrates max–min expected utility, variational preferences, and minimax regret to link forecasts directly to robust decision-making. The mathematical models provide empirical foundations for ambiguity-aware forecasting while highlighting implications for evaluation, communication, and practical implementation. The results indicate that forecasting under Knightian uncertainty requires a paradigm shift: moving from precision-oriented prediction toward robustness and resilience. This framework offers a foundation for applying ambiguity-aware forecasting across economics, finance, and policy domains, while it also complements existing robust decision-making methods by providing a formal structure for ambiguity-aware forecast construction within the broader shift from prediction to robustness.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146058009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategic Foresight as Policy Infrastructure for Financial Governance: A Multi-Layered Framework for Anticipatory Policymaking in Emerging Economies 战略远见作为金融治理的政策基础设施:新兴经济体前瞻性政策制定的多层次框架
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70031
Amir Bahador Morovat, Farhad Nazarizadeh, Ahmad Radan
{"title":"Strategic Foresight as Policy Infrastructure for Financial Governance: A Multi-Layered Framework for Anticipatory Policymaking in Emerging Economies","authors":"Amir Bahador Morovat,&nbsp;Farhad Nazarizadeh,&nbsp;Ahmad Radan","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article develops a multi-layered framework for understanding how strategic foresight can function as a form of policy infrastructure within financial governance systems, with a particular focus on emerging economies. Drawing on recent literature on anticipatory governance, data-driven regulation, and institutional capacity-building, the paper argues that effective foresight depends not only on methodological tools but on the alignment of political, technical, participatory, and regulatory conditions. A structured review of secondary sources (2020–2024), complemented by descriptive analysis of the experiences of Singapore, India, and the OECD, is used to highlight common patterns in how financial authorities incorporate anticipation into their decision-making environments. These insights are then applied to the Iranian banking sector to illustrate how the proposed framework can organize existing information and reveal practical constraints and opportunities. The paper also outlines three exploratory scenarios for Iran in 2030, derived from the interplay of key technological, regulatory, and geopolitical drivers identified in the study. Rather than offering predictive claims, the analysis provides a structured way of interpreting institutional dynamics and clarifying the types of capabilities required for anticipatory governance in constrained settings. The findings underscore the importance of coherent political sponsorship, reliable data ecosystems, participatory mechanisms, and channels for translating foresight insights into regulatory action. The framework offers policymakers a way to diagnose systemic gaps and consider how foresight can be embedded more effectively within financial governance architectures.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Futures of Everyday Life: A Qualitative Content Analysis of Future Personas in Scenarios 日常生活的未来:情景中未来人物角色的定性内容分析
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70030
Gerhard Schönhofer, Pauli Komonen, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Laura Bechthold
{"title":"Futures of Everyday Life: A Qualitative Content Analysis of Future Personas in Scenarios","authors":"Gerhard Schönhofer,&nbsp;Pauli Komonen,&nbsp;Jan Oliver Schwarz,&nbsp;Laura Bechthold","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scenario reports, holding a long-standing tradition in foresight and futures studies, act as an essential document for organizations to prepare for possible, plausible, and alternative futures. Focusing on descriptions and representations of everyday life, we examined 29 future persona narratives from six publications—covering a wide field from public to private sector—through qualitative content analysis. Our guiding question is: How can anthropological perspectives such as cultural relativism or postcolonial discourses contribute to an in-depth, qualitative interpretation depictions of future everyday life? Acknowledging anthropology's colonial origins and its growing commitment to the interests of indigenous and other marginalized groups, we offer alternative readings of prominent scenario reports. Our findings suggest that scenario reports, in addition to anticipating possible futures, construct certain futures based on a systematic analysis of empirical data but also speculative interpretation. The results of these interpretative acts often appear elitist, stereotypical, and technocratic, often replicating dominant societal narratives rather than fostering substantive shifts in how the future is imagined. We therefore call for a more polyphonic representation of futures in scenario writing and foresight work that can produce more discontinuous and transformative images of the future. We understand polyphonic representations as coined by various independent, predominant as well as subaltern perspectives on the same issue at stake while being offered the same amount of space. Therefore, as we will indicate in our analysis, most of the reports referred to are rather monophonic and do not offer discuptive perspectives on the future of everyday life. As an avenue of methodological development, we propose a more nuanced and comprehensive perception of culture and social structures in scenario narrative writing. In addition, ethnographic methods could increase our understanding of how futures are collaboratively constructed and produced by different actors and their respective backgrounds and knowledge in scenario processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145904773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategic Foresight in the Digital Transformation Era: Roadmapping Inspired by Design Thinking 数字化转型时代的战略前瞻:设计思维的路径规划
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70029
Hung Nguyen, Shalini Mohanty, Jae-Yun Ho
{"title":"Strategic Foresight in the Digital Transformation Era: Roadmapping Inspired by Design Thinking","authors":"Hung Nguyen,&nbsp;Shalini Mohanty,&nbsp;Jae-Yun Ho","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Despite its usefulness as an innovation tool for strategic foresight, conventional roadmapping has several limitations in practice, such as linear tendency, poor articulation of value, difficulty and delay in implementation, and implicit certainty and persistent prejudice, as identified in existing literature. These limitations are further exacerbated in the digital transformation era due to radical and disruptive changes that fundamentally alter systems, calling for more innovative roadmapping practices for strategic foresight to navigate transformative changes. This study examines the potential of integrating design thinking principles and tools with roadmapping to address these challenges. An improved roadmapping process is proposed, by combining conceptual theories from a literature review of strategic roadmapping and design thinking. This process model is tested and further developed via an in-depth case study of an airline company undergoing digital transformation, based on participant observation. Feedbacks and verification interviews demonstrate the benefits of the new roadmapping approach, which incorporates principles of design thinking (e.g., human-centeredness, creative reframing, learning by doing, and divergence and convergence) and relevant tools (e.g., persona, customer journey map, and ideas menu) that are effective for forward-oriented strategic decision making under uncertainty. The proposed roadmapping process can improve firms' strategic foresight by providing informed and practical guidance for systematically designing, organizing, and executing roadmaps in rapidly evolving and highly disruptive environments of digital transformation. This study advances the literature on strategic roadmapping, and enables academic researchers to further explore how design thinking principles and tool-kits can enhance firms' foresight processes and capabilities in managing digital transformation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145887782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Decade of Change and Future Prospects of Organic Farming in Iran Using the Multi-Round Delphi Method 使用多轮德尔菲法的伊朗有机农业的十年变化和未来展望
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70028
Arezou Babajani, Faezeh Rahmati, Neda Rafizadeh, Sabine Zikeli, Christine Wieck
{"title":"A Decade of Change and Future Prospects of Organic Farming in Iran Using the Multi-Round Delphi Method","authors":"Arezou Babajani,&nbsp;Faezeh Rahmati,&nbsp;Neda Rafizadeh,&nbsp;Sabine Zikeli,&nbsp;Christine Wieck","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, the concept of organic farming has gained increasing attention due to its reduced use of agrochemicals, ecological preservation, and contribution to sustainability. However, the analysis of data from 2013 to 2021 shows that organic agriculture in Iran remained almost unchanged until 2016, with approximately 18,871 hectares under cultivation. After 2016, a period of stagnation ensued, followed by a decline, suggesting a regression rather than a progression in the sector. The present study aims to identify and evaluate the primary indicators influencing the development of organic agriculture in Iran by leveraging the expertise of subject-matter experts. To this end, a four-round, two-phase Delphi method was employed to identify, refine, and validate the indicators. This method entailed conducting interviews with Iranian organic farming experts representing diverse organizations and sectors within organic agriculture. The identified factors were then grouped using the 7S model (Strategy, Structure, System, Skills, Staff, Style, and Shared Values). A nonparametric test was used to determine changes in these indicators over the past decade. The study's findings suggest that structural enhancements, increased knowledge, and growing societal awareness of sustainability have exerted a favorable influence. Nevertheless, systemic and policy constraints have curtailed the comprehensive advancement of organic farming. This research offers significant insights to the dynamics of organic agriculture in Iran and provides concrete recommendations for promoting its development in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145891022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reimagining Digital Labour Futures in Vietnam: A Causal Layered Analysis Case Study of Socio-Technical Transitions in an Emerging Economy 重塑越南的数字劳动力未来:新兴经济体社会技术转型的因果分层分析案例研究
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70027
Thi Van Hoa Tran, Quoc Dung Ngo
{"title":"Reimagining Digital Labour Futures in Vietnam: A Causal Layered Analysis Case Study of Socio-Technical Transitions in an Emerging Economy","authors":"Thi Van Hoa Tran,&nbsp;Quoc Dung Ngo","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vietnam's rapid digital transformation presents a complex paradox: whilst the digital economy demonstrates exceptional growth exceeding 20% annually, the labour market exhibits deepening precarity and structural inequalities. This study employs a comprehensive Futures Studies approach, utilising Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), scenario planning, and the Futures Wheel, to examine Vietnam's digital labour dynamics through in-depth interviews with 28 stakeholders across five categories: workers, employers, educators, policymakers, and futures experts. Grounded in Inayatullah's Six Pillars Framework for futures thinking, the research reveals four distinct layers of causality: surface trends showing accelerated digitisation and gig economy expansion; systemic causes including policy-driven development and legal grey zones; worldviews characterised by pervasive techno-optimism and partnership illusions; and deep myths positioning Vietnam as an “Asian Tiger” pursuing a “Digital Leapfrog.” Futures Wheel analysis maps the cascading impacts of widespread AI adoption, while scenario planning identifies four potential pathways, ranging from inclusive digital prosperity to stratified precarity. The findings demonstrate how surface-level economic success can coexist with microeconomic vulnerability when social infrastructure fails to keep pace with technological advancements. This rigorous application of established Futures Studies methods provides empirical insights for managing digital labour transitions in emerging economies, contributing substantial case study evidence and practical policy insights for ensuring equitable development outcomes whilst leveraging technological opportunities.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Identification of Emerging Quantum Technologies in the Healthcare Sector: A Horizon Scanning Study 医疗保健领域新兴量子技术的识别:一项水平扫描研究
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70025
Oshin Sharma, Ross Fairbairn, Imogen Forsythe, Oleta Williams, Andrew Mkwashi
{"title":"The Identification of Emerging Quantum Technologies in the Healthcare Sector: A Horizon Scanning Study","authors":"Oshin Sharma,&nbsp;Ross Fairbairn,&nbsp;Imogen Forsythe,&nbsp;Oleta Williams,&nbsp;Andrew Mkwashi","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantum technologies, driven by principles of quantum mechanics like superposition and entanglement, have shown transformative potential in drug discovery, medical diagnosis, precision medicine, and other therapeutic interventions. However, the research on emerging quantum technologies at early to late stages of development for healthcare applications is limited. The main objective of this study was to identify emerging quantum technologies such as quantum computing, diagnostics, and therapeutics, with a focus on specific applications within healthcare, such as drug discovery, diagnosis assistance, precision medicine, and treatment interventions. We conducted a comprehensive review of this landscape by analyzing data from clinical trials, published literature, and soft intelligence sources. The analysis revealed 116 quantum technologies such as computing algorithms, therapeutics, sensors, and imaging applications that are currently in development or already in the market. Diagnosis assistance-related technologies, including technologies such as magnetoencephalography and quantum dots, constituted the majority of the technologies, while quantum computing-related machine learning and algorithms were significant in drug discovery and precision medicine applications. The integration of quantum technologies into healthcare faces challenges such as infrastructure demands, regulatory frameworks, and the need for professional training. However, with ongoing advancements, quantum technologies are uniquely positioned to revolutionize diagnostic accuracy, computational capacity for drug design, and precision medicine. This horizon scan highlights the current innovation landscape of emerging quantum technologies in healthcare and the challenges in facilitating the integration of these technologies into healthcare systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Expected Impacts and Scenarios of Adopting Fusion Energy in Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯采用核聚变能源的预期影响和情景评估
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70023
Ibrahim A. Alrammah, Meshari Alqahtani, Ahmed A. Basfar, Mohammad Mhareb
{"title":"Evaluation of Expected Impacts and Scenarios of Adopting Fusion Energy in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Ibrahim A. Alrammah,&nbsp;Meshari Alqahtani,&nbsp;Ahmed A. Basfar,&nbsp;Mohammad Mhareb","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fusion energy is increasingly recognized as a potential game-changer in addressing the grand challenge of achieving deep decarbonization while ensuring long-term energy security. Recognizing the uncertainty surrounding fusion energy's technological maturity, commercialization timelines, and cost trajectories, this study adopts an anticipatory foresight approach tailored to high-uncertainty contexts. The research employs a mixed-methods framework incorporating horizon scanning, expert elicitation, trend analysis, and exploratory scenario planning. These methods were selected to account for deep technological uncertainty (e.g., plasma containment breakthroughs, cost convergence, fuel supply chain development), as well as systemic uncertainties related to sociopolitical acceptance and infrastructure readiness. For the case of Saudi Arabia, three distinct scenarios—Optimistic, Moderate, and Conservative—are developed to reflect a spectrum of plausible futures. Under the Optimistic Scenario, fusion could supply 10%–15% of Saudi Arabia's electricity mix by 2045 (50–75 TWh annually). The Moderate Scenario forecasts a 5%–10% contribution by 2050 (25–50 TWh), while the Conservative case sees fusion reaching under 5% by 2060 (&lt; 25 TWh). These projections are framed within the broader uncertainty landscape, with sensitivity analyses on cost assumptions, technological learning curves, and policy interventions. A comparative assessment of anticipatory methodologies under these uncertainty levels underscores the limitations of deterministic forecasting and the value of scenario-based planning in guiding long-term energy policy. While fusion's economic feasibility remains uncertain, potential cost parity with advanced nuclear fission and gas-fired plants by mid-century is plausible. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations to reduce uncertainty and accelerate fusion adoption: increasing national R&amp;D funding, fostering international and public-private collaborations, investing in adaptive grid infrastructure, and developing flexible regulatory frameworks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145750670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long-Term Horizons 新兴国防技术的战略前瞻:对科技创新政策和短期、中期和长期传播时间表的影响
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70024
Merve Asilogullari Ayan, Serhat Cakir
{"title":"Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long-Term Horizons","authors":"Merve Asilogullari Ayan,&nbsp;Serhat Cakir","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>From past to present, the defense industry has consistently driven technological innovation, acting as a catalyst for breakthroughs that extend beyond military applications. As global defense strategies increasingly rely on cutting-edge technologies, identifying areas of investment that align with Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies has become crucial. Using the Delphi method, this study gathers insights from 74 Turkish defense-sector professionals—academics, engineers, and military officers—to evaluate 14 priority technology domains defined by the European Defense Agency taxonomy. Türkiye's short-, medium-, and long-term roadmap for digital transformation emphasizes immediate-impact areas, including cybersecurity, sensor systems, and design technologies, as well as long-horizon priorities, including photonics, advanced materials, and propulsion systems. Cybersecurity stands out as a disruptive, high-impact domain, reshaping both Türkiye's defense capabilities and the global security paradigm. The results function as a policy roadmap, allowing decision-makers to reconcile near-term readiness with long-term strategic autonomy by aligning investments, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives. These technologies challenge existing norms and demand adaptive policy frameworks that can anticipate and regulate their influence on national security. The integration of such technologies into defense frameworks represents a paradigmatic shift, reshaping military strategies and global power dynamics. The findings of this study contribute to ongoing discussions about the foresight of emerging technologies and their strategic implications within the defense industry, positioning it at the forefront of global technological transformation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145739704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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