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The Future of Humanity—From Global Civilization to Great Civilization By Zhouying Jin, Chicago: Intellect, the University of Chicago Press. 2022. 2nd ed. Translated by Lane Jennings and Ying Bai. 338 pp of text + references (no index) 《人类的未来——从全球文明到伟大文明》，金周颖著，芝加哥：智力，芝加哥大学出版社，2022年。第2版，由莱恩·詹宁斯和白英译，338页文本+参考文献（无索引）
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.198
Alan Clardy
{"title":"The Future of Humanity—From Global Civilization to Great Civilization By \u0000 Zhouying Jin, Chicago: Intellect, the University of Chicago Press. 2022. \u0000 2nd ed. Translated by Lane Jennings and Ying Bai. 338 pp of text + references (no index)","authors":"Alan Clardy","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.198","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.198","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Under what conditions? A scenario-based approach for exploring the prerequisites of future events
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.196
Tommi Ekholm, Theresa Schaber
{"title":"Under what conditions? A scenario-based approach for exploring the prerequisites of future events","authors":"Tommi Ekholm,&nbsp;Theresa Schaber","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.196","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In an increasingly complex world, futures thinking can be used to understand the conditions that define future events' realization. This paper presents a novel approach to explore under what conditions some chosen future event would occur. The approach can be seen as a fusion of exploratory scenarios with the backward-looking perspective of backcasting while resembling cross-impact methods in how future events' realization arises from the interaction of several uncertain assumptions. The approach maps the causal mechanisms and assumptions that lead to the investigated event's realization, and results in a subset of assumption combinations that lead to the event being realized or not, and scenario sets where the event is either realized or not. This analysis provides insights beyond “Is the event likely to occur?”, revealing the various circumstances under which it can occur. We also provide ways for considering probabilities and deliberate decisions within the approach. We illustrate the approach with three example cases from different problem domains, such as reaching long-term climate targets, and employing various methods, such as causal mapping, influence diagrams, and optimization. We conclude with a discussion on the approach's potential to enhance foresight practice, emphasizing its synergistic relation to existing methods and its contribution to a richer, more nuanced anticipation of the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.196","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate 企业前瞻有利于企业的创新气候
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.195
Bernhard Wach, Jan O. Schwarz, Felix von Held
{"title":"Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate","authors":"Bernhard Wach,&nbsp;Jan O. Schwarz,&nbsp;Felix von Held","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.195","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Corporate foresight (CF) can be considered a future-oriented capability that incorporates perceiving and prospecting. Extant CF-related studies tackle the CF−innovation relationship but do not provide details on how CF relates to innovation climate. As we assume that the innovation climate of companies is a relevant antecedent to innovation, we conduct a quantitative empirical study with 147 upper-tier managers to investigate how CF and the respective training of managers relate to a corporate's innovation climate. Results show that strong perceiving and prospecting positively influence the innovation climate, whereby prospecting is of particular importance. Further, we find that training managers in future-oriented capabilities is only under certain circumstances (i.e., low prospecting) beneficial to the innovation climate in companies.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.195","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Simulation-based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering 基于仿真的基于时间序列聚类的多维未来情景生成与分析
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.194
Patrick Steinmann, Koen van der Zwet, Bas Keijser
{"title":"Simulation-based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering","authors":"Patrick Steinmann,&nbsp;Koen van der Zwet,&nbsp;Bas Keijser","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.194","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scenarios are commonly used for decision support and future exploration of complex systems. Using simulation models to generate these scenarios, called scenario discovery, has received increased attention in the literature as a principled method of capturing the uncertainty, complexity, and dynamics inherent in such problems. However, current methods of incorporating dynamics into scenario discovery are limited to a single outcome of interest. Furthermore, there is little work on the post-generation evaluation of the generated scenarios. In this work, we extend scenario discovery to multiple dynamic outcomes of interest, and present a number of visual and statistical approaches for evaluating the resulting scenario sets. These innovations make model-based scenario generation more widely applicable in decision support for complex societal problems, and open the door to multimethod scenario generation combining model-based and model-free methods such as Intuitive Logics or futures cones.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.194","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis 在危机时刻将判断纳入预测模型
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.193
Philip Hans Franses
{"title":"Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis","authors":"Philip Hans Franses","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.193","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces a simple and reproducible method to modify model forecasts using expert forecasts which is useful in crisis times. The idea is to add the expert forecast as an additional observation of the dependent variable, and to extend the model with an additional explanatory variable such as the square of a deterministic trend. Next, the new model forecast is combined with the expert forecast using equal weights. We show that it works well for gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2020 for 12 countries and that it improves upon an equal-weighted combination of the original model forecast and expert forecast.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.193","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A review of the future: A very short introduction 对未来的回顾：一个非常简短的介绍
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.192
Nicholas J. Rowland, Alexis Ordess
{"title":"A review of the future: A very short introduction","authors":"Nicholas J. Rowland,&nbsp;Alexis Ordess","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.192","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.192","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment 在探索未来挑战时采用假想后代和系统思维的兼容效应：来自审议实验的证据
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.191
Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai, Yutaka Nomaguchi
{"title":"Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment","authors":"Keishiro Hara,&nbsp;Yukari Fuchigami,&nbsp;Takanobu Arai,&nbsp;Yutaka Nomaguchi","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.191","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141814838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time and futures. Analysis of time-needs in futures research 时间与期货。期货研究中的时间需求分析
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.190
Veli Virmajoki, Mika-Petri Laakkonen
{"title":"Time and futures. Analysis of time-needs in futures research","authors":"Veli Virmajoki,&nbsp;Mika-Petri Laakkonen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.190","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper discusses temporalities in futures research in terms of a novel notion of time-need. It is argued that this notion contributes to the theoretical and critical discussion about time in futures research. The paper uses as an illustrative case study a railway transportation system to highlight how different actors within a system have unique temporal needs that shape their perceptions, actions, and relation to the future. The authors discuss the interplay of power, control, utilization, and the strategic manipulation of temporal information. This paper argues for a novel conceptual approach to temporal phenomena that can be used to (i) understand and plan a technological system better, but also (ii) provide critical reflection on the power and control implicit in such systems. Moreover, the paper suggests that futures research as a field has its own time-needs that shape how it approaches the future. Recognizing these time-needs enables a more nuanced understanding of futures research. Scenarios, knowledge, and power are all intimately related to time.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141677858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data 评分规则和绩效，对专家判断数据的新分析
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.189
Gabriela F. Nane, Roger M. Cooke
{"title":"Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data","authors":"Gabriela F. Nane,&nbsp;Roger M. Cooke","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.189","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A review of scoring rules highlights the distinction between rewarding honesty and rewarding quality. This motivates the introduction of a scale-invariant version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) which enables statistical accuracy (SA) testing based on an exact rather than an asymptotic distribution of the density of convolutions. A recent data set of 6761 expert probabilistic forecasts for questions for which the actual values are known is used to compare performance. New insights include that (a) variance due to assessed variables dominates variance due to experts, (b) performance on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is weakly related to SA (c) scale-invariant CRPS combinations compete with the Classical Model (CM) on SA and MAPE, and (d) CRPS is more forgiving with regard to SA than the CM as CRPS is insensitive to location bias.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141700691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures 评论员作为职业消费者：从法律角度看评论员的未来
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.188
Liudmila Sivetc
{"title":"Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures","authors":"Liudmila Sivetc","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.188","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.188","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Internet technologies have empowered commentators to participate in information production. This phenomenon has been studied as citizen journalism and media convergence. However, one perspective has remained underdeveloped: commentators are empowered as prosumers who are neither consumers nor producers. Commentators prosume comments for themselves and their communities rather than for sale. Therefore, in terms of Toffler, prosumers can raise the Sector A economy, which is typical of agricultural society, and which is overshadowed by the market or the Sector B economy in industrial society. This article highlights prosumers' freedom to post lawful comments and the implications for this freedom coming from moderation standards imposed in the EU by the European Court of Human Rights and the Digital Services Act. The analysis led to the construction of three models of information production/prosumption and the anticipatin of their futures. The article concludes by suggesting how prosumers' freedom to post lawful comments and moderators' control over comments prosumption can be balanced better from a legal perspective.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.188","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141272096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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