The Scenario Quality Assessment Method: A New Technique for Verifying the Quality of Scenarios

Abstract

In a modern world faced by increasing uncertainty and crises, the importance of scenarios to inform the strategic decision-making processes of governments and corporations has become paramount. This necessitates that those scenarios are rigorous and of high quality. A challenge is that research articulating how to classify and ensure the quality of a scenario is not prolific. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a framework of criteria for assessing scenario quality based on the futures and foresight literature and then using this to offer a new method for specifically assessing the quality of scenarios in the context of crisis management. The Scenario Quality Assessment Method infuses both the critical thinking and creativity required to develop quality scenarios. The method was empirically verified with scholars and practitioners in the industry to determine inter-rater reliability before its intended use in the analysis of a data set for a scenario planning research project in the context of crisis management. This paper contributes theoretically to future and foresight research by including the concept of creativity when assessing the quality of scenarios and offers practitioners in crisis management an effective technique to assess the quality of their own scenarios.