FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第4页

Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long-Term Horizons 新兴国防技术的战略前瞻：对科技创新政策和短期、中期和长期传播时间表的影响

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70024

Merve Asilogullari Ayan, Serhat Cakir

{"title":"Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long-Term Horizons","authors":"Merve Asilogullari Ayan, Serhat Cakir","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 From past to present, the defense industry has consistently driven technological innovation, acting as a catalyst for breakthroughs that extend beyond military applications. As global defense strategies increasingly rely on cutting-edge technologies, identifying areas of investment that align with Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies has become crucial. Using the Delphi method, this study gathers insights from 74 Turkish defense-sector professionals—academics, engineers, and military officers—to evaluate 14 priority technology domains defined by the European Defense Agency taxonomy. Türkiye's short-, medium-, and long-term roadmap for digital transformation emphasizes immediate-impact areas, including cybersecurity, sensor systems, and design technologies, as well as long-horizon priorities, including photonics, advanced materials, and propulsion systems. Cybersecurity stands out as a disruptive, high-impact domain, reshaping both Türkiye's defense capabilities and the global security paradigm. The results function as a policy roadmap, allowing decision-makers to reconcile near-term readiness with long-term strategic autonomy by aligning investments, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives. These technologies challenge existing norms and demand adaptive policy frameworks that can anticipate and regulate their influence on national security. The integration of such technologies into defense frameworks represents a paradigmatic shift, reshaping military strategies and global power dynamics. The findings of this study contribute to ongoing discussions about the foresight of emerging technologies and their strategic implications within the defense industry, positioning it at the forefront of global technological transformation.\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145739704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Foresighting Scenarios for Green Hydrogen in Portugal: Systematization of Potential Futures and Identification of Bottlenecks and Constraints 葡萄牙绿色氢的预见情景：潜在未来的系统化和瓶颈和约束的识别

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70022

Mário Vieira, Marco Alves, Sofia G. Simoes, Lídia Quental, Justina Catarino, Paulo J. R. Pinto, Paula Oliveira, Teresa Simões

{"title":"Foresighting Scenarios for Green Hydrogen in Portugal: Systematization of Potential Futures and Identification of Bottlenecks and Constraints","authors":"Mário Vieira, Marco Alves, Sofia G. Simoes, Lídia Quental, Justina Catarino, Paulo J. R. Pinto, Paula Oliveira, Teresa Simões","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 The use of green hydrogen has emerged as a promising avenue for facilitating the decarbonization of society. In this study, the potential futures of green hydrogen in Portugal, a key player in Europe's energy transition, are explored. Utilizing General Morphological Analysis combined with advanced clustering, the various political, social, and technological elements are analyzed to create a multifaceted view of the sector's future. This results in seven distinct scenario clusters, each offering unique insights into the challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen. The scenarios span a range of outcomes, from rapid growth fueled by strong policy support and technological advancements to more measured development due to economic or infrastructural hurdles. This study intends to provide stakeholders a deep understanding of the factors influencing green hydrogen's role in Portugal's push towards a sustainable energy landscape by 2030. These results provide a basis for the development of new projects and research directions, providing them with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Moreover, this study will contribute to decision support by facilitating actions aimed at fostering the appropriate development of green hydrogen.\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Discriminative Artificial Intelligence Drives Scenario Planning: A Systematic Literature Review and Research Agenda 判别人工智能如何驱动情景规划：系统的文献综述和研究议程

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70021

Laura M. Berensmeier, Valentin J. Schmitt, Martin G. Moehrle

{"title":"How Discriminative Artificial Intelligence Drives Scenario Planning: A Systematic Literature Review and Research Agenda","authors":"Laura M. Berensmeier, Valentin J. Schmitt, Martin G. Moehrle","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70021","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the potential of discriminative Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance scenario planning, a widely used methodology in strategic planning. Like others, scenario planning also faces the challenge of efficiently integrating available information. We address this challenge by investigating two research questions: First, how is discriminative AI currently applied in scenario planning? Second, how could discriminative AI techniques additionally be used to support the stakeholders of scenario planning? A systematic literature review identifies 58 relevant documents that illustrate the application of discriminative AI in several stages of the scenario process. We present six key findings in relation to the purpose of discriminative AI, the data used and the spectrum of topics. We then formulate seven research propositions that serve as a research agenda and highlight further potential for the utilization of discriminative AI. Our contribution to science is that we show how the roles of stakeholders are going to change. For management, we demonstrate the numerous opportunities offered by discriminative AI to improve the quality of scenario planning.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145407438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When We Work. Delphi Results on Time and Temporality Within Futures of Work 当我们工作时。德尔菲结果在未来工作的时间和时间性

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70020

Veli Virmajoki, Sirkka Heinonen, Riku Viitamäki, Amos Taylor, Juho Ruotsalainen

{"title":"When We Work. Delphi Results on Time and Temporality Within Futures of Work","authors":"Veli Virmajoki, Sirkka Heinonen, Riku Viitamäki, Amos Taylor, Juho Ruotsalainen","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70020","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines time and temporality as central but often overlooked dimensions that shape the futures of work. While workplace transformation discussions often emphasise spatial aspects of working environments, our study reveals that temporal structures fundamentally determine how work is organised, experienced, and valued. In a two-round Delphi study conducted in 2024, we used a novel Delphi approach with provocations and paradox probing. As a result, we gained understanding on how temporal (i.e., time-related) issues function as critical elements in future work environments. Our findings indicate that novel temporal arrangements and understandings are associated with transformations in working environments. However, the possibility of novel temporal arrangements and their utilisation often follow existing power structures, which create inequities between different sectors, roles, and people. To conceptualise time as an active element rather than neutral background, we contextualise the analysis to literature on time in futures studies and related fields. In this way, our research contributes through the Delphi study to understanding how changing temporalities might affect whether workplace innovations succeed in fostering productivity, well-being, and equity or whether they create novel problems and new forms of exclusion. The results of our Delphi study are particularly timely given how workplaces change in the context of the so-called double twin transition of digital/green and virtual/physical transforming our societies. Where and when cannot be separated when it comes to the futures of work, given the double twin transition.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stakeholder-Driven Consequence Modeling Employing Cross-Impact Balance Scenario Analysis 采用交叉影响平衡情景分析的利益相关者驱动的后果建模

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70019

Simon Brauner, Stefan Vögele

{"title":"Stakeholder-Driven Consequence Modeling Employing Cross-Impact Balance Scenario Analysis","authors":"Simon Brauner, Stefan Vögele","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70019","url":null,"abstract":"Future research, including participatory research, can help to explore stakeholder perspectives. This capability is observable in scenario methods such as the cross-impact balance analysis that aggregates factors from which scenarios and further research opportunities are derivable. In this methodologically oriented paper, a modeling idea is explored, in which consequences are considered as flexible factors in the modeling process, rather than drawing on fixed impact-consequence linkages. The study proposes an extension that explicitly models implicitly acting consequences to increase stakeholder involvement and system understanding. In this regard, the manuscript argues that this approach enables reflection on the modeling and potential results during this process, as they are constructed around these consequences or, more generally, system indicators. Thus, this approach provides an opportunity to integrate cross-impact assessment more effectively into stakeholder dialog by facilitating the tracking and discussion of structures. The study also illustrates the methodological approach by highlighting its application to the topic of water governance. In addition to the potential for utilizing this approach in workshops and participatory co-modeling, the most significant initial finding of this study is that the explication of consequences could serve as a suitable foundation for further studies focusing on stakeholder involvement or impact analysis.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Democratization of Tomorrow's Plate: Synergizing Foresight Methods and Design Thinking in Designing Cellular Agriculture Innovations 明日盘子的民主化：设计细胞农业创新的协同预见方法和设计思维

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70018

Simbarashe Nhokovedzo, Petri Tapio, Siyada Witoon, Nikita Uverov, Tawanda Prosper Mushayavanhu

{"title":"Democratization of Tomorrow's Plate: Synergizing Foresight Methods and Design Thinking in Designing Cellular Agriculture Innovations","authors":"Simbarashe Nhokovedzo, Petri Tapio, Siyada Witoon, Nikita Uverov, Tawanda Prosper Mushayavanhu","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70018","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a sustainable design framework for cellular agriculture innovations by integrating foresight methods and design thinking. Importantly, the research connected design thinking, foresight methods and sustainable innovations. The framework systematically aligns foresight methods with the design thinking process, thus enabling cellular agriculture innovators to anticipate long-term challenges and navigate uncertainties. The strengths and limitations of either design thinking or foresight are explored thus rationalizing the need to integrate them. A key research question of the study is: How can foresight methods be systematically integrated with design thinking to enhance the sustainability of Cellular Agriculture innovations? A user-friendly framework is developed by matching foresight methods capabilities and aims of design thinking stages. The paper discusses theoretical and practical implications of the framework while pointing direction of further research in shaping sustainable food systems.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pratixa: A Cognitive Framework for Behavioral Decision-Making and Its Mathematical Formalization 实践：行为决策的认知框架及其数学形式化

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70017

Santhosh Kareepadath Rajan

{"title":"Pratixa: A Cognitive Framework for Behavioral Decision-Making and Its Mathematical Formalization","authors":"Santhosh Kareepadath Rajan","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 The present study introduces pratixa, an internal cognitive structure that functions as a reference architecture guiding human decision-making. Pratixa is a dynamic, event-sensitive archive of anticipated outcomes of behavior, learned event-behavior-outcome associations, and adaptive behavioral responses, drawing on the theories from decision science, psychology, and behavioral adaptation. Past experiences shape pratixa, and iterative learning reinforces it. It supports predictive mental representations by enabling individuals to anticipate the outcomes of their own behavioral responses and adjust those responses when discrepancies arise between anticipated and actual outcomes. Pratixa supports anticipatory learning and real-time correction, making it a future-oriented cognitive structure for decision making. It matures in a spiral progression, from null pratixa, where no prior event-behavior-outcome associations exist, through quixotic pratixa, characterized by illusory or arbitrary associations, to realistic pratixa, where causal relationships are adequately approximated. This spiral maturation reflects how individuals adapt through experiential learning and reinforcement, transitioning from effortful reasoning to increasingly automatic and context-sensitive decision-making. By positioning decision-making within this evolving structure, pratixa offers a distinct perspective on predictive cognition in complex and ambiguous contexts, with implications for strategic foresight, behavioral economics, and adaptive behavioral decision making. The study also proposes a mathematical formulation to represent how this reference architecture evolves through reinforcement-based learning and guides decision-making, providing a computational basis for modeling human foresight and adaptation.\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interactive Horizon Scanning of the Forest Bioeconomy With a Nested Business Environment Framework 嵌套商业环境框架下森林生物经济的交互式水平扫描

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70015

Tuomas Mauno, Päivi Pelli, David N. Bengston, Jouni Pykäläinen, Teppo Hujala

{"title":"Interactive Horizon Scanning of the Forest Bioeconomy With a Nested Business Environment Framework","authors":"Tuomas Mauno, Päivi Pelli, David N. Bengston, Jouni Pykäläinen, Teppo Hujala","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70015","url":null,"abstract":"In sectors based on renewable resources, foresight studies have often been macro-scale, quantitative outlook studies. As a result, in the complex operating environment of the forest bioeconomy, the organizations and professionals of the emerging bioeconomic sector have not been able to fully utilize futures information in their decision-making processes. This study sought to find solutions to this issue by utilizing a nested business environment framework (NEST framework) in signal interpretation as part of piloting interactive horizon scanning of the forest bioeconomy. In interaction with a diverse group of forest bioeconomy stakeholders, the horizon scanning exercise collected and interpreted signals of change. The aim was to increase forest bioeconomy actors' sense of ownership towards signals information. This study discusses strengths and weaknesses of interactive horizon scanning in the context of the forest bioeconomy and raises awareness of the opportunities and challenges of using a NEST framework in signal interpretation. The study contributes to the analytical tools and has practical implications for interpreting signals of change in the forest bioeconomy and other sectors based on renewable resources. According to the results, the NEST framework used in signal interpretation has strengths, but revealing its full potential requires further development. These developments may include the application of the framework in concrete, timely stakeholder contexts, both involving forest bioeconomy actors and a necessary outside-in perspective from other sectors.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial Scenarios With Real-Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities 具有实时空间德尔菲和渐近共识分析的空间情景：在十个欧洲沿海城市的应用

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70013

Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla, Simone Di Zio

{"title":"Spatial Scenarios With Real-Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities","authors":"Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla, Simone Di Zio","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70013","url":null,"abstract":"Recent climatic events, such as coastal erosion, floods, and elevated temperatures, threaten the planet's sustainability and the well-being of European coastal cities. These events are expected to increase significantly, emphasizing the urgent need for careful analysis to inform policy development and prevent dystopian scenarios. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the development of future scenarios is essential for depicting long-term outcomes and facilitating effective planning, which can be achieved using various methods, including the Real-Time Spatial Delphi. This paper applies to the Delphi-based spatial scenario (DBSS), adopting a novel web-based open platform, to obtain spatial convergence of opinions among a panel of experts using spatial analysis and statistical indicators. The DBSS method was applied to 10 European coastal areas in seven different countries, involving 167 experts to assess climate impacts in 2050. This paper introduces for the first time, the concept of Asymptotic Theoretical Consensus to obtain a deeper understanding of the dynamic process, including duration, smoothness of convergence, and stability. The identified scenarios validate the proposed method and provide significant benefits to stakeholders, policymakers, local authorities, and governmental bodies in formulating efficacious strategies and confronting the challenges presented by climate change.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach 参与式情景框架推动生态系统情景作为环境未来方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70005

Ludwig Weh

{"title":"A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach","authors":"Ludwig Weh","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70005","url":null,"abstract":"Ecosystem scenarios describe possible, probable and desirable developments of the natural environment in the future, often assessed from a natural scientific (biophysical) and social scientific (socioeconomic) perspective. Processing relevant systemic and human behavioral parameters as scenario factors or drivers, different frameworks for ecosystem scenario building have been developed, applied, and evaluated in scientific literature. Increasingly, stakeholder participation has proven a central objective and challenge for these frameworks defining process designs in transdisciplinary domains such as science-society or science-policy interfaces. This article presents a conceptual framework to advance ecosystem scenario projects towards improved stakeholder participation, knowledge inclusivity and process reflexivity. The framework combines epistemological and methodological elements from futures studies with established research practices in ecosystem assessment projects. The framework's dynamic, adaptive character adds deliberative and reflexive elements to process design and application for a more inclusive and stakeholder-oriented research practice. Its novelty lies in the continuous configuration of process variables derived from common dichotomous elements of theoretical scenario classification applied in scenario practice. This approach benefits integrated knowledge management and inclusivity within the framework for multi-method, multi-stakeholder, multi-sector and multi-epistemic scenario processes. In a wider scope of environmental futures approaches, this article details the development, conceptual outline and preliminary application of the participatory framework for testing and evaluation in an ongoing ecosystem scenario project.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"7 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144292866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0