FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第4页

Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris 自由意志决定心理预见的极限——评Sam Harris的《自由意志》

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.149

David J. Grüning

{"title":"Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris","authors":"David J. Grüning","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.149","url":null,"abstract":"The existence of free will and its prerequisites have entertained countless debates. The position one takes in these debates dictates their outlook on limitations of predicting human psychology. Sam Harris (2012), in his book, misses out on exploring these consequences accepting or rejecting free will has for the predictability of human decision-making and action-taking. Likewise, referencers of his work addressed this topic only peripherally and, to the best of my knowledge, have never explored its consequences in depth. Therefore, in the present review, I aim to demonstrate and formalize the following: If we understand human cognition and behavior as the result of environmental and individual causes that both are knowable, adding a per definition indeterminable source, namely, free will, can only reduce the maximum possible power of any used prediction model. Accepting a free human will renders error-free foresight theoretically, and empirically, impossible. This has consequences for all forecasting and planning methods that concern human agents as well as their tools’ utility (e.g., scenarios and psychological analysis). I address the consequences free will belief has conceptually for three application fields: management and leadership, historic analysis, and theory building.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50150990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) 考虑场因素以提高情景规划实验的外部有效性：对德比郡等人的评论。（2022）

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.150

Shardul S. Phadnis

引用次数: 1

On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) 论科学中的复制：对德比郡等人的评论（2022）

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.147

Nicholas J. Rowland, Matthew J. Spaniol

引用次数: 2

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning 实验在未来和前瞻科学中的价值——以情景规划为例

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.146

James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton, Dilek Önkal

{"title":"The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning","authors":"James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton, Dilek Önkal","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.146","url":null,"abstract":"An already pressing need to evidence the effectiveness of futures and foresight tools has been further amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, which highlighted more mainstream tools' difficulty with uncertainty. In light of this, the recent discussion in this journal on providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis is welcome. In this discussion critical realism has been proffered as a useful philosophical foundation and experiments a useful method for improving this field's scientific basis. Yet, experiments seek to isolate specific causal effects through closure (i.e., by controlling for all extraneous factors) and this may cause it to jar with critical realism's emphasis on uncertainty and openness. We therefore extend the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science by doing three things. First, we elaborate on critical realism and why the experimental method may jar with it. Second, we explain why the distinction between a conceptual and a direct replication can help overcome this jarring, meaning experiments can still be a valuable research tool for a futures and foresight science underpinned by critical realism. Third, we consider the appropriate unit of analysis for experiments on futures and foresight tools. In so doing, we situate the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science within the much longer running one on improving the scientific basis of business, management and strategy research more broadly. We use the case of scenario planning to illustrate our argument in relation to futures and foresight science.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"5 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.146","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50144390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight “价值观”背后的科学：将道德基础理论应用于战略前瞻

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.145

Brent Mills, Alex Wilner

{"title":"The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight","authors":"Brent Mills, Alex Wilner","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.145","url":null,"abstract":"“Values” play an oversized role in strategic foresight: they help define scanning frameworks, direct scanning efforts, inform change driver and scenario development, and underpin change within various systems and domains (e.g., politics, society, etc.). And yet, values are largely understudied within foresight. They are rarely defined consistently or explored with reference to a theoretical model of how values emerge or evolve. Rather, values are researched using dissimilar methods depending on the foresight research at hand, which can lead to gaps in analysis and inconsistency between foresight projects. Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), a social psychological theory that identifies common human moral values, offers a solution. MFT describes six moral values or “foundations”—care, fairness, loyalty, authority, sanctity, and liberty—each explained through the evolutionary development of humanity and detectable across cultures. Within foresight, MFT can be applied to understand and identify shifts in the influence of different values, which can result in more novel and unexpected conclusions. With these potential benefits available, we propose adopting and adapting MFT for use within the foresight to improve the way it approaches, identifies, and utilizes values. Our article unpacks MFT into its core tenets and illustrates how it can be used to inform scanning, change driver development, and scenario construction.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.145","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness: A supply-side perspective 改善伊朗整体目的地形象和吸引力的未来情景：供应方视角

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.143

Mohammad Nematpour, Masood Khodadadi, Sarasadat Makian, Mohammad Ghaffari

引用次数: 1

Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight 构建技术预见的Delphi语句

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.144

Per Dannemand Andersen

引用次数: 1

Computer-aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city 基于参与式回溯的计算机辅助场景设计——以日本城市可持续视觉创造为例

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.141

Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura, Kazumasu Aoki

{"title":"Computer-aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city","authors":"Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura, Kazumasu Aoki","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.141","url":null,"abstract":"Designing backcasting scenarios is a powerful approach to the development of sustainable visions and pathways for governments or enterprises in the early stage of their policy-making or strategic decision-making process. To date, a number of scholars have proposed various backcasting methods, in which workshops are often used to reflect the voices of stakeholders. However, it is still a challenge to test the validity of scenarios because the process of designing backcasting scenarios is not transparent or shared among involved stakeholders. This also prevents reusing knowledge and intermediate outputs generated during the scenario design process. To solve these problems, this paper aims to develop a method for supporting a backcasting scenario design by introducing computational assistance. A scenario design support system called the sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator is used to visualize a scenario's logical sequence of the scenario in graph format. To demonstrate the proposed method, a case study for the city of Toyama, a Japanese municipality, was performed using three workshops with citizen participation. The results showed that two different scenarios, involving future visions and associated pathways, were developed by reflecting the diversified values of local citizens. The usage of the 3S simulator visualized the logical relations of the described scenarios, which consist of five blocks—problem definition, subgoals to achieve visions, measures to attain these subgoals, verification, and conclusions. This visualization is effective to increase the verifiability and reusability of the scenarios for evidence-based policy-making processes.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50134091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence 平均分位数、方差收缩和过度自信

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.139

Roger M. Cooke

引用次数: 1

Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future-oriented technology analysis 支持分布式集成执行面向未来的技术分析

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-06-07 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.136

Carlos E. Barbosa, Yuri Lima, Matheus Emerick, Fabio Ferman, Fernanda C. Ribeiro, Jano Moreira de Souza

{"title":"Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future-oriented technology analysis","authors":"Carlos E. Barbosa, Yuri Lima, Matheus Emerick, Fabio Ferman, Fernanda C. Ribeiro, Jano Moreira de Souza","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.136","url":null,"abstract":"Large organizations usually spread their research and development (R&D) around the world, hindering coordination efforts when performing future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies. FTA is commonly used in R&D planning, especially on research prioritization. Therefore, we developed an FTA framework for large and geographically spread organizations, named Tiamat. The Tiamat framework is composed of a simplified organization model, which focuses on internal and external interactions during FTA, and an FTA process, which indicates the steps performed by the decision-maker need until the delivery of the FTA final report from the organization. Based on the Tiamat framework, we developed the Tiamat software, a modular tool that implements generic FTA using the concept of workflows of FTA methods. Thus, we describe the architecture and collaboration aspects of the Tiamat software. The Tiamat framework (i.e., model and process) and the Tiamat software were applied in real situations to evaluate its FTA support capability. Besides, we show non-FTA uses of the Tiamat software to showcase its flexibility. Among the contributions, we highlight the use of the Tiamat framework in the management of a standardized FTA process, based on the concept of workflows. The framework was developed to be easily adapted to many types of organizations, such as businesses, universities, and public institutions, either civil or military. The Tiamat software has shown to be capable to support distributed and local FTA studies, as well non-FTA studies.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50123755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5