在探索未来挑战时采用假想后代和系统思维的兼容效应:来自审议实验的证据

Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai, Yutaka Nomaguchi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们采用了一种创新方法,将系统思考与 "想象中的未来世代"(IFGs)(一种激活人们 "未来性 "的方法)相结合,讨论未来社会的问题和需求,并验证了这种方法的有效性和价值。我们进行了五个系列的辩论实验,在这些实验中,由公司员工和大学生组成的小组共同制定了 2050 年未来社会的愿景、社会问题和社会需求,并研究了未来几年应采取的政策。对小组辩论的文本分析和对辩论参与者的问卷调查结果表明:(1) 在描绘未来社会状态的图像时,采用综合框架图有助于探索新的问题和需求;(2) 采用综合框架图会使辩论参与者产生公认的认知变化;(3) 将综合框架图方法与系统思考工具因果循环图(CLDs)相结合,可以在保持 "未来一代 "视角的同时产生系统思考的效果。最重要的是,研究结果表明,综合框架方法和因果循环图可以相互兼容。这些研究结果表明,综合框架方法和系统思考相结合,可以有效地用于处理与未来社会有关的复杂问题的讨论和决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.

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