Economía UNAM最新文献

{"title":"Jaime Ros Bosch (1950-2019)","authors":"Pablo Ruiz Nápoles","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2019.48.486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2019.48.486","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"17 1","pages":"8-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88336056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Un gran debate económico a través de nuestra historia, los liberales frente a los keynesianos desarrollistas","authors":"F. Dávila","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.403","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen Uno de los grandes debates economicos de nuestra historia es el celebrado entre los liberales y los “keynesianos desarrollistas”. Se inicia a partir de la Gran Depresion de 1929, en que el Ministro Montes de Oca, a traves de politicas liberales de equilibrio fiscal profundiza en Mexico la gran caida del ingreso. Como reaccion, el Ministro de Hacienda, Eduardo Suarez, bajo el gobierno de Cardenas, establece las bases de la estrategia desarrollista, aplicando al mismo tiempo politicas keynesianas anticiclicas de corto plazo. El resultado seria el periodo mas exitoso de nuestra historia, de 1933 a 1973: 40 anos de crecimiento al 6% anual. En la ultima parte del periodo, a partir de 1958 con el Ministro Ortiz Mena, se lograria alcanzar tambien la estabilidad de precios: “el desarrollo estabilizador”. El modelo desarrollista seria atacado sistematicamente por el prominente grupo liberal. No pretendemos regresar al pasado. Hacia 1970, la estrategia evidenciaba limitaciones y senales de agotamiento. Pero la esencia del modelo fue adaptado a las circunstancias actuales por los paises emergentes mas exitosos como China (neodesarrollismo). El debate tiene gran vigencia en el momento actual, en que Mexico quiere abandonar el “estancamiento estabilizador” y recuperar la ruta del crecimiento acelerado con inclusion social. Abstract One of the great economic debates in our history was the one between “liberals” and “Keynesian developmentalists”. It started during the Great Depression of 1929, when Finance Minister Montes de Oca following liberal policies of “sound finance”, plunged Mexico into a serious fall of income. As a reaction, Eduardo Suarez, the Minister of Finance, under President Cardenas, established the basis for a “developmentalist strategy”, applying also countercyclical Keynesian policies. The result was the most successful economic period in our history: 40 years at 6% annual growth from 1933 to 1973. During the last part of the period, Minister Ortiz Mena, would also achieve price stabilization. The model was systematically criticized by the prominent liberal group. We do not pretend a go back to the past. The strategy showed evident failures and limitations, towards 1970. But its essence has been adapted to modern circumstances by successful emerging countries like China (“neodevelopmentalism”). The debate has great actuality in Mexico’s present moment, when it needs to recover from “stability with stagnation”, to a new route “accelerating growth that is socially inclusive.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"13 1","pages":"3-28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84581874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experiencias de un centro de investigación en un país en desarrollo: caso del Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo","authors":"D. Romo, Arturo Ortíz Ubilla","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.410","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen Al Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo (IMP) se le ha considerado como uno de los principales centros de desarrollo tecnologico de Mexico, constituido para ser el “brazo tecnologico” de Petroleos Mexicanos. Luego de mas de cinco decadas, enfrenta retos significativos. El objetivo de este trabajo es elaborar un diagnostico del IMP para contar elementos que abonen a redefinir su desempeno en los anos por venir. Con base en un diagnostico deductivo en donde se identifican los principales problemas estructurales acumulados, se proponen estrategias para afrontar el nuevo entorno de mercado en la industria petrolera. Abstract The Mexican Petroleum Institute (IMP) has been considered as one of the main Mexican technological development center, constituted to be the \"technological arm\" of Petroleos Mexicanos. After five decades, it faces significant challenges. The objective of this paper is to elaborate an IMP diagnosis to count elements that will redefine its performance in the becoming years. Based on an integral diagnosis in which the main accumulated structural problems are identified, strategies are proposed to meet the new market environment in the oil industry.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"66 1","pages":"152-163"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89923843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La brecha laboral rural en México. Una grieta invisible de la desocupación / The rural labor gap in Mexico. An invisible crack of unemployment","authors":"M. Barrón","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.407","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen Las secuelas de la crisis de 2008, han mantenido un desempleo persistente con una ligera tendencia a la baja en Mexico, dadas las limitaciones de la definicion de ocupado y desocupado, el registro de desempleo resulta insuficiente, es necesario medir la brecha laboral que permita conocer la oferta real de fuerza de trabajo, pues se ha ampliado pese a la reforma laboral de 2012 o como consecuencia de ello. El empleo, desempleo y brecha laboral tienen un comportamiento marcadamente diferente en las areas urbanas y rurales, de ahi el interes de medir la brecha laboral rural por sexo y entidad federativa. En la busqueda de elementos que expliquen su comportamiento, se relaciona tal brecha con el empleo en condiciones criticas de ocupacion. Finalmente se comparan sus desequilibrios en de las areas rurales del pais, a partir de calcular el indice de localizacion que corrobore por entidad donde se concentra el fenomeno. Varios fenomenos definen el comportamiento de la brecha laboral, destaca el hecho de que en los estados mas pobres donde la brecha es menor que en las entidades menos pobres, ademas, se muestra una relacion inversa entre brecha laboral y condiciones criticas de ocupacion. Abstract The aftermath of the crisis of 2008, have maintained a persistent unemployment with a slight downward trend in Mexico, given the limitations of the definition of employed and unemployed, the unemployment record is insufficient, it is necessary to measure the labor gap that allows to know the real supply of labor force, which has expanded despite the labor reform of 2012 or as a consequence. Employment, unemployment and labor gap have a markedly different behavior in urban and rural areas, hence the interest to measure the rural labor gap by sex and state. In the search for elements that explain their behavior, the labor gap is related to employment in critical conditions of occupation, finally the imbalances of the labor gap by sex of the rural areas of the country are compared, from calculating the location index that corroborates by entity where the phenomenon is concentrated. Several phenomena define the behavior of the labor gap, distinguish the fact that in the poorest states is where the gap is smaller than in the less poor, in addition, there is an inverse relationship between the labor gap and critical occupation conditions.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"8 1","pages":"89-107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86981666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estructura económica, distribución del ingreso, patrones de alimentación y las condiciones nutricionales en México","authors":"L. Moreno-Altamirano, Santiago Capraro, Carlo Panico, Martin Silberman, Guadalupe Soto-Estrada","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.404","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen En el presente articulo se realiza un analisis descriptivo sobre la estructura economica, la distribucion del ingreso, los patrones de alimentacion y las condiciones nutricionales, para conjugar evidencias provenientes de la epidemiologia y de la economia. Se argumenta que la alimentacion y la nutricion dependen de la evolucion de esta estructura y de la distribucion del ingreso, signadas en Mexico durante los ultimos anos por un proceso de liberalizacion del comercio exterior y de la cuenta de capital y por una intervencion publica que supone que las fuerzas de mercado pueden generar resultados positivos en terminos de desarrollo y bienestar social. Se concluye que el proceso de liberalizacion ha promovido inequidad social, desigualdad en alimentacion y malnutricion. Abstract The paper presents some descriptive analyses of the economic structure, income distribution, eating patterns and nutritional conditions, integrating evidence from epidemiology and economics. It argues that the food and nutrition depend on the evolution of the economic structure and income distribution, marked in recent years by a process of trade and capital liberalization and by public intervention relying on market forces to generate development and social welfare. The paper concludes that liberalization has promoted inequality in social and health conditions and has produced complex phenomenon of malnutrition.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"1 1","pages":"29-49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83278948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El tabú distributivo","authors":"David Ibarra","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.409","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen En el tabu distributivo se intentan explicar las modalidades principales de las politicas publicas para atender una gran diversidad de problemas y objetivos sin mover o moviendo al minimo el reparto consagrado del producto. Sin duda, es muy alta la sensibilidad politica de las elites economicas, frente a las alteraciones distributivas que pudiesen afectarlas desfavorablemente. Mayor tolerancia suele encontrarse a movimientos de signo contrario hasta que su acumulacion ocasiona tensiones insostenibles. La neutralidad distributiva directa del gasto o los deficit publicos, de las estrategias exportadoras o del credito a las familias, han sido los principales expedientes utilizados a ese proposito. En el futuro, el uso de esos mecanismos muestra trabas o senales de agotamiento. Poco a poco tendran que ser sustituidos por politicas distributivas explicitas de mayor contenido democratico. Abstract The distributive taboo is trying to explain the main modalities of public policies to address a diversity of problems and objectives without moving to a minimum the product sharing. The political sensitivity of the economic elites, against the distributional changes that could adversely affect is certainly very high. Greater tolerance is often found to opposite movements until their accumulation causes unbearable strains. The distributive neutrality of spending or public deficits, export strategies or family credits, have been the main policies used to that purpose. In the future, the use of these mechanisms encounters obstacles or signs of exhaustion. Little by little they will have to be replaced by explicit distributional policies of greater democratic content.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"5 1","pages":"124-151"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89289877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empleo y seguridad social en México: impacto del sector y tamaño de empresa","authors":"E. Vidal, Jorge Joaquín Puente Novell","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.408","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen A semejanza de otras economias latinoamericanas, en Mexico ha disminuido la proteccion social de los trabajadores desde la decada de 1970 (Hernandez Laos, 2011). Esta tendencia se ha interrumpido en anos recientes en los que se ha observado un aumento significativo del porcentaje de trabajadores asegurados al IMSS. Para explicar las causas del aumento de la tasa de empleo asegurado en Mexico se examino el periodo 2005-2016; periodo para el cual tuvimos datos disponibles. La explicacion se basa en los cambios sectoriales del empleo y se complementa con una estimacion econometrica que usa como variables predictoras los tamanos de las empresas registradas y otras variables de control. Calculamos que actualmente uno de cada cinco negocios en Mexico cuenta con un registro en el IMSS. Encontramos que el aumento de la tasa de trabajadores asegurados se debe a la mayor contribucion de los sectores comercio y servicios y de las empresas medianas, ademas de las empresas grandes. Usando los datos de la encuesta de empleo del INEGI solo se corrobora parcialmente el incremento de la tasa de asegurados del IMSS. Identificamos un exceso de oferta laboral en el mercado de empleo asegurado lo cual facilito, a la par de la modernizacion del sector servicios y de las reformas laborales, el aumento de la tasa de cobertura sin presiones salariales. Se espera que en los proximos anos haya un exceso de demanda laboral de las empresas registradas que provocaria un aumento del salario real en la economia mexicana. Abstract Similar to other Latin American economies, the social protection of workers in Mexico has declined since the 1970 (Hernandez Laos, 2011). This trend has been interrupted in recent years in which a significant increase in the percentage of workers insured by the IMSS has been observed. Working with the available data, the causes of the increase in the insured employment rate in Mexico were examined from 2005 to 2016. The explanation is based on sectoral changes in employment and is complemented by an econometric estimation that uses the sizes of the registered companies and other control variables as predictors. We estimate that currently one in five businesses in Mexico has a record in the IMSS. We found that the increase in the insured employment rate in Mexico is due to a greater contribution of both the retail and services sectors as well as the support of midsize and large companies. Using data from the INEGI employment survey, the increase in the Imss insured rate is only partially corroborated. We identified an excess of labor supply in the insured employment market, which facilitated, along with the modernization of the services sector and the labor reforms, facilitated the increase in the coverage rate without wage pressures. An excess of registered labor demand is expected in the next few years that may cause a real wage increase in the Mexican economy.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"24 1","pages":"108-123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75647871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reseña del libro: Política de competencia. Teoría y práctica, de Massimo Motta","authors":"José Gabriel Espíndola Reyna","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.411","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"21 1","pages":"164-172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82544055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La transformación estructural de la economía mexicana: ¿milagro o desastre económico?","authors":"J. Mota","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.405","url":null,"abstract":"Resumen El proposito es analizar el rol de la politica economica en el proceso de transformacion estructural de la economia mexicana en las ultimas tres decadas. Se parte de la premisa de que la politica economica tiene un importante papel para generar un milagro o un desastre economico, donde el principio del ingreso interactua con el mecanismo de los precios para lograr la transformacion de los procesos productivos que pueda reflejarse en crecimientos economicos sostenidos. Se concluye que el gasto publico productivo tiene un importante papel para generar un cambio estructural, en tanto contribuya al incremento de las capacidades productivas de los factores de la produccion que fomenten la competitividad. Abstract The purpose is to analyze the role of economic policy in the process of structural transformation of the Mexican economy over the past three decades. It starts from the premise that economic policy has an important role to create a miracle or an economic disaster, where the principle of income interacts with the price mechanism to achieve the transformation of production processes that may be reflected in economic growth sustained. It is concluded that productive public spending has an important role to generate a structural change, while contributing to increasing the productive capacities of production factors that encourage competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"77 1","pages":"50-69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90329248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinantes del tipo de cambio y su volatilidad / On the Determinants of exchange rate and volatility","authors":"José Luis Clavellina Miller","doi":"10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.24488143E.2018.45.406","url":null,"abstract":"ResumenTras el inicio de la normalizacion de la politica monetaria estadounidense, el tipo de cambio ha observado una elevada volatilidad, la cual ha sido exacerbada, ademas, por  otros factores como la desaceleracion de la economia china, la salida de Reino Unido de la Union Europea, la renegociacion del tratado de libre comercio tras las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses, y factores internos como el lento crecimiento economico, la caida de los ingresos petroleros y el acelerado endeudamiento publico. El peso mexicano es una de las monedas de los paises emergentes que peor desempeno mostraron en 2016 y 2017. El presente analisis intenta identificar las variables teoricas mas relevantes que afectan al tipo de cambio tanto en el corto como en el largo plazos. Estos determinantes son los diferenciales de inflacion y crecimiento economico tasas de interes entre Mexico y Estados Unidos, barreras comerciales, productividad, la posicion fiscal del pais, el nivel de endeudamiento publico y las expectativas de crecimiento economico. Un factor adicional es el hecho de que el peso sirve como cobertura de riesgo en el mercado de futuros. Con el objetivo de renovar la credibilidad en la economia mexicana y en su moneda, es necesario que el gobierno federal cumpla con sus objetivos fiscales, reduzca la razon de deuda publica/PIB, vigile la correcta implementacion de las reformas estructurales, promueva el crecimiento economico, fortalezca el aparato institucional, el cumplimiento de la ley y el combate a la corrupcion y a la inseguridad.AbstractThe exchange rate volatility in Mexico has increased since the beginning of the monetary policy normalization in the US. There are many other factors that have increased volatility such as the deceleration of the Chinese economy, the Brexit, the possible renegotiation of NAFTA after the presidential elections in the US, as well as internal factors, for example slow economic growth, the fall in the state oil revenues and the high levels in public debt. The Mexican peso is one the currencies with worst performance among those in emerging markets during 2016. This paper tries to identify the most relevant theoretical variables that affect the exchange rate in Mexico not only in the long run but also in the short run. Some of these variables are related to the rates of inflation between Mexico and the US, commercial barriers, productivity, internal fiscal position, growth perspectives and the possible downgrade of Mexico´s sovereign bonds. Another important element that has spurred volatility is the fact that peso has been used as a currency hedging instrument in the futures market. In order to recover credibility in the Mexican economy and its currency, federal government needs to accomplish with its fiscal consolidation objectives by reducing the debt/GDP coefficient; observing the correct implementation of structural reforms, promoting economic growth, strengthening institutional structure and the rule of law an","PeriodicalId":100391,"journal":{"name":"Economía UNAM","volume":"7 1","pages":"70-88"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89733484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}