{"title":"HOW DOES THE LATENCY PERIOD IMPACT THE MODELING OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS?","authors":"Ben Patterson, Jin Wang","doi":"10.5206/mase/14537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14537","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We introduce two mathematical models based on systems of differential equations to investigate the relationship between the latency period and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We analyze the equilibrium and stability properties of these models, and perform an asymptotic study in terms of small and large latency periods. We fit the models to the COVID-19 data in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Our numerical results demonstrate the impact of the latency period on the dynamical behaviors of the solutions, on the value of the basic reproduction numbers, and on the accuracy of the model predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":"3 1","pages":"60-85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9302022/pdf/nihms-1821943.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40534023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamics of discrete predator- prey system with fear effect and density dependent birth rate of the prey species","authors":"D. Mukherjee","doi":"10.5206/mase/14496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14496","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses a discrete predator-prey system with fear effect and density dependent birth rate of the prey species. The fixed points of the system are determined and their stability is examined. The criterion for Neimark-Sacker bifurcation and flip bifurcation is developed. The chaotic orbit at an unstable fixed point can be stabilized by applying the state feedback control method. Numerically, we illustrate our analytical findings and observe the complex behaviour of the system that leads to stable state to chaotic one.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47290997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamics of a stoichiometric producer-grazer model with maturation delay","authors":"Hua Zhang, Hao Wang, Ben Niu","doi":"10.5206/mase/14332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14332","url":null,"abstract":"Ecological stoichiometry provides a multi-scale approach to study macroscopic phenomena via microscopic lens. A stoichiometric producer-grazer model with maturation delay is proposed and studied in this paper. The interaction between stoichiometry and delay is novel and leads to more interesting insights beyond classical delay-driven periodic solutions. For example, the period doubling route to chaos can occur as the minimal phosphorous:carbon ratio in producer decreases. Mathematically, we establish the conditions for the existence and stability of positive equilibria, and study the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation at positive equilibria. Analytic results show that delay can change the number and stability of positive equilibria through transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation, and it further determines the grazer's extinction. Our model with a small delay behaves like LKE model in terms of light intensity, and Rosenzweig's paradox of enrichment exists in a suitable light intensity. We plot bifurcation diagrams and show rich dynamics driven by delay, light intensity, phosphorous availability, and conversion efficiency, including that a large delay can drive the grazer to go extinct in an intermediate light intensity that is favorable for the survival of the grazer when there is no delay; a limit cycle can appear, then disappear as the delay increases; given the same initial condition, solutions with different delay values can tend to different attractors.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42067231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Application of ant colony optimization metaheuristic on set covering problems","authors":"C. A. Buhat, Jerson Ken Villamin, G. Cuaresma","doi":"10.5206/mase/14018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14018","url":null,"abstract":"Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) metaheuristic is a multi-agent system in which the behaviour of each ant is inspired by the foraging behaviour of real ants to solve optimization problem. Set Covering Problems (SCP), on the other hand, deal with maximizing the coverage of every subset while the weight nodes used must be minimized. In this paper, ACO was adapted and used to solve a case of Set Covering Problem. The adapted ACO for solving the SCP was implemented as a computer program using SciLab 5.4.1. The problem of determining the optimal location of Wi-Fi Access Points using the 802.11n protocol in the UP Los Banos Math Building was solved using this metaheuristic. Results show that in order to have 100% coverage of the MB, 7 access points are required. Methodology of the study can be adapted and results of the study can be used by decision makers on related optimization problems.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43143732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On approximating initial data in some linear evolutionary equations involving fraction Laplacian","authors":"R. Karki","doi":"10.5206/mase/13511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/13511","url":null,"abstract":"We study an inverse problem of recovering the intial datum in a one-dimensional linear equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions when finitely many values (samples) of the solution at a suitably fixed space loaction and suitably chosen finitely many later time instances are known. More specifically, we do this. We consider a one-dimentional linear evolutionary equation invliing a Dirichlet fractional Laplacian and the unknown intial datum f that is assumed to be in a suitable subset of a Sovolev space. Then we investigate how to construct a sequence of future times and choose n so that from n samples taken at a suitably fixed space location and the first n terms of the time sequence we can constrcut an approximation to f with the desired accuracy. ","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43896471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Long-time behavior of a nonlocal dispersal logistic model with seasonal succession","authors":"Zhenzhen Li, B. Dai","doi":"10.5206/mase/15415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/15415","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is devoted to a nonlocal dispersal logistic model with seasonal succession in one-dimensional bounded habitat, where the seasonal succession accounts for the effect of two different seasons. Firstly, we provide the persistence-extinction criterion for the species, which is different from that for local diffusion model. Then we show the asymptotic profile of the time-periodic positive solution as the species persists in long run.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42810332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
W. Fitzgibbon, J. Morgan, Geoffrey I. Webb, Yixiang Wu
{"title":"A diffusive SEIR model for community transmission of Covid-19 epidemics: application to Brazil","authors":"W. Fitzgibbon, J. Morgan, Geoffrey I. Webb, Yixiang Wu","doi":"10.5206/mase/14150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14150","url":null,"abstract":"A mathematical model incorporating diffusion is developed to describe the spatial spread of COVID-19 epidemics in geographical regions. The dynamics of the spatial spread are based on community transmission of the virus. The model is applied to the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47530564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prevailing winds and spruce budworm outbreaks: a reaction-diffusion-advection model","authors":"Abby Anderson, O. Vasilyeva","doi":"10.5206/mase/14112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14112","url":null,"abstract":"We extend the classical reaction-diffusion model for spatial population dynamics of spruce budworm on a finite domain with hostile boundary conditions by including an advection term representing biased unidirectional movement of individuals due to a prevailing wind. We use phase-plane techniques to establish existence of a critical value of advection speed that prevents outbreak solutions on any finite domain while possibly allowing an endemic solution. We obtain lower and upper bounds for this critical advection value in terms of biological parameters involved in the reaction term. We also perform numerical simulations to illustrate the effect of advection on the dependence of the domain size on the maximal population density of a steady state solution and on critical domain sizes for endemic and outbreak solutions. The results are also applicable to other ecological settings (rivers, climate change) where a logistically growing population is subject to predation by a generalist, diffusion and biased movement.","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43133315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation","authors":"Md. Azmir Ibne Islam, Sharmin Sultana Shanta, Ashrafur Rahman","doi":"10.5206/mase/13886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/13886","url":null,"abstract":"Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading with a greater intensity across the globe. The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions. \u0000Method: We developed a mathematical model to present the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to analyze the impact of key nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation and screening program on the disease outcomes to the people of New Jersey, USA. We introduced a dynamic isolation of susceptible population with a constant (imposed) and infection oriented interventions. Epidemiological and demographic data are used to estimate the model parameters. The baseline case was explored further to showcase several critical and predictive scenarios.\u0000Results and analysis: The model simulations are in good agreement with the infection data for the period of 5 March 2020 to 31 January 2021. Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic. A 7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%. The model predicts that nearly 9.7% to 12% of the total population of New Jersey may become infected within the middle of July 2021 along with 24.6 to 27.3 thousand cumulative deaths. Within a wide spectrum of probable scenarios, there is a possibility of third wave \u0000Conclusion: Our findings could be informative to the public health community to contain the pandemic in the case of economy reopening under a limited or no vaccine coverage. Additional epidemic waves can be avoided by appropriate screening and isolation plans. ","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43907866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cluster solutions in networks of weakly coupled oscillators on a 2D square torus","authors":"J. Culp","doi":"10.5206/mase/14147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/14147","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 \u0000We consider a model for an N × N lattice network of weakly coupled neural oscilla- tors with periodic boundary conditions (2D square torus), where the coupling between neurons is assumed to be within a von Neumann neighborhood of size r, denoted as von Neumann r-neighborhood. Using the phase model reduction technique, we study the existence of cluster solutions with constant phase differences (Ψh, Ψv) between adjacent oscillators along the horizontal and vertical directions in our network, where Ψh and Ψv are not necessarily to be identical. Applying the Kronecker production representation and the circulant matrix theory, we develop a novel approach to analyze the stability of cluster solutions with constant phase difference (i.e., Ψh,Ψv are equal). We begin our analysis by deriving the precise conditions for stability of such cluster solutions with von Neumann 1-neighborhood and 2 neighborhood couplings, and then we generalize our result to von Neumann r-neighborhood coupling for arbitrary neighborhood size r ≥ 1. This developed approach for the stability analysis indeed can be extended to an arbitrary coupling in our network. Finally, numerical simulations are used to validate the above analytical results for various values of N and r by considering an inhibitory network of Morris-Lecar neurons. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000","PeriodicalId":93797,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42125971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}