StatsPub Date : 2023-01-16DOI: 10.3390/stats6010011
Yu-Fang Chien, Haiming Zhou, T. Hanson, Theodore C. Lystig
{"title":"Informative g-Priors for Mixed Models","authors":"Yu-Fang Chien, Haiming Zhou, T. Hanson, Theodore C. Lystig","doi":"10.3390/stats6010011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010011","url":null,"abstract":"Zellner’s objective g-prior has been widely used in linear regression models due to its simple interpretation and computational tractability in evaluating marginal likelihoods. However, the g-prior further allows portioning the prior variability explained by the linear predictor versus that of pure noise. In this paper, we propose a novel yet remarkably simple g-prior specification when a subject matter expert has information on the marginal distribution of the response yi. The approach is extended for use in mixed models with some surprising but intuitive results. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the model fitting under the proposed g-prior with that under other existing priors.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48885348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2023-01-15DOI: 10.3390/stats6010010
M. Irshad, M. Monisha, C. Chesneau, R. Maya, D. S. Shibu
{"title":"A Novel Flexible Class of Intervened Poisson Distribution by Lagrangian Approach","authors":"M. Irshad, M. Monisha, C. Chesneau, R. Maya, D. S. Shibu","doi":"10.3390/stats6010010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010010","url":null,"abstract":"The zero-truncated Poisson distribution (ZTPD) generates a statistical model that could be appropriate when observations begin once at least one event occurs. The intervened Poisson distribution (IPD) is a substitute for the ZTPD, in which some intervention processes may change the mean of the rare events. These two zero-truncated distributions exhibit underdispersion (i.e., their variance is less than their mean). In this research, we offer an alternative solution for dealing with intervention problems by proposing a generalization of the IPD by a Lagrangian approach called the Lagrangian intervened Poisson distribution (LIPD), which in fact generalizes both the ZTPD and the IPD. As a notable feature, it has the ability to analyze both overdispersed and underdispersed datasets. In addition, the LIPD has a closed-form expression of all of its statistical characteristics, as well as an increasing, decreasing, bathtub-shaped, and upside-down bathtub-shaped hazard rate function. A consequent part is devoted to its statistical application. The maximum likelihood estimation method is considered, and the effectiveness of the estimates is demonstrated through a simulated study. To evaluate the significance of the new parameter in the LIPD, a generalized likelihood ratio test is performed. Subsequently, we present a new count regression model that is suitable for both overdispersed and underdispersed datasets using the mean-parametrized form of the LIPD. Additionally, the LIPD’s relevance and application are shown using real-world datasets.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42405726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2023-01-12DOI: 10.3390/stats6010009
{"title":"Acknowledgment to the Reviewers of Stats in 2022","authors":"","doi":"10.3390/stats6010009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010009","url":null,"abstract":"High-quality academic publishing is built on rigorous peer review [...]","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135996027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2023-01-11DOI: 10.3390/stats6010008
Christina Empacher, U. Kamps, G. Volovskiy
{"title":"Statistical Prediction of Future Sports Records Based on Record Values","authors":"Christina Empacher, U. Kamps, G. Volovskiy","doi":"10.3390/stats6010008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010008","url":null,"abstract":"Point prediction of future record values based on sequences of previous lower or upper records is considered by means of the method of maximum product of spacings, where the underlying distribution is assumed to be a power function distribution and a Pareto distribution, respectively. Moreover, exact and approximate prediction intervals are discussed and compared with regard to their expected lengths and their percentages of coverage. The focus is on deriving explicit expressions in the point and interval prediction procedures. Predictions and forecasts are of interest, e.g., in sports analytics, which is gaining more and more attention in several sports disciplines. Previous works on forecasting athletic records have mainly been based on extreme value theory. The presented statistical prediction methods are exemplarily applied to data from various disciplines of athletics as well as to data from American football based on fantasy football points according to the points per reception scoring scheme. The results are discussed along with basic assumptions and the choice of underlying distributions.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43503521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2023-01-04DOI: 10.3390/stats6010007
Magda Monteiro, M. Costa
{"title":"Change Point Detection by State Space Modeling of Long-Term Air Temperature Series in Europe","authors":"Magda Monteiro, M. Costa","doi":"10.3390/stats6010007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010007","url":null,"abstract":"This work presents the statistical analysis of a monthly average temperatures time series in several European cities using a state space approach, which considers models with a deterministic seasonal component and a stochastic trend. Temperature rise rates in Europe seem to have increased in the last decades when compared with longer periods. Therefore, change point detection methods, both parametric and non-parametric methods, were applied to the standardized residuals of the state space models (or some other related component) in order to identify these possible changes in the monthly temperature rise rates. All of the used methods have identified at least one change point in each of the temperature time series, particularly in the late 1980s or early 1990s. The differences in the average temperature trend are more evident in Eastern European cities than in Western Europe. The smoother-based t-test framework proposed in this work showed an advantage over the other methods, precisely because it considers the time correlation presented in time series. Moreover, this framework focuses the change point detection on the stochastic trend component.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43119824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.3390/stats6010006
Isa Muqattash, Jiaqiao Hu
{"title":"An ϵ-Greedy Multiarmed Bandit Approach to Markov Decision Processes","authors":"Isa Muqattash, Jiaqiao Hu","doi":"10.3390/stats6010006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010006","url":null,"abstract":"We present REGA, a new adaptive-sampling-based algorithm for the control of finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with very large state spaces and small action spaces. We apply a variant of the ϵ-greedy multiarmed bandit algorithm to each stage of the MDP in a recursive manner, thus computing an estimation of the “reward-to-go” value at each stage of the MDP. We provide a finite-time analysis of REGA. In particular, we provide a bound on the probability that the approximation error exceeds a given threshold, where the bound is given in terms of the number of samples collected at each stage of the MDP. We empirically compare REGA against another sampling-based algorithm called RASA by running simulations against the SysAdmin benchmark problem with 210 states. The results show that REGA and RASA achieved similar performance. Moreover, REGA and RASA empirically outperformed an implementation of the algorithm that uses the “original” ϵ-greedy algorithm that commonly appears in the literature.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45930650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2022-12-29DOI: 10.3390/stats6010005
V. Timiryanova, Dina Krasnoselskaya, N. Kuzminykh
{"title":"Applying the Multilevel Approach in Estimation of Income Population Differences","authors":"V. Timiryanova, Dina Krasnoselskaya, N. Kuzminykh","doi":"10.3390/stats6010005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010005","url":null,"abstract":"Income inequality remains one of the most burning issues discussed in the world. The difficulty of the problem arises from its multiple manifestations at regional and local levels and unique patterns within countries. This paper employs a multilevel approach to identify factors that influence income and wage inequalities at regional and municipal scales in Russia. We carried out the study on data from 2017 municipalities of 75 Russian regions from 2015 to 2019. A Hierarchical Linear Model with Cross-Classified Random Effects (HLMHCM) allowed us to establish that most of the total variances in population income and average wages accounted for the regional scale. Our analysis revealed different variances of income per capita and average wage; we disclosed the reasons for these disparities. We also found a mixed relationship between income inequality and social transfers. These variables influence income growth but change the relationship between income and labour productivity. Our study underlined that the impacts of shares of employees in agriculture and manufacturing should be considered together with labour productivity in these industries.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43768845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2022-12-27DOI: 10.3390/stats6010003
D. Politis, P. Tarassenko, V. Vasiliev
{"title":"Estimating Smoothness and Optimal Bandwidth for Probability Density Functions","authors":"D. Politis, P. Tarassenko, V. Vasiliev","doi":"10.3390/stats6010003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010003","url":null,"abstract":"The properties of non-parametric kernel estimators for probability density function from two special classes are investigated. Each class is parametrized with distribution smoothness parameter. One of the classes was introduced by Rosenblatt, another one is introduced in this paper. For the case of the known smoothness parameter, the rates of mean square convergence of optimal (on the bandwidth) density estimators are found. For the case of unknown smoothness parameter, the estimation procedure of the parameter is developed and almost surely convergency is proved. The convergence rates in the almost sure sense of these estimators are obtained. Adaptive estimators of densities from the given class on the basis of the constructed smoothness parameter estimators are presented. It is shown in examples how parameters of the adaptive density estimation procedures can be chosen. Non-asymptotic and asymptotic properties of these estimators are investigated. Specifically, the upper bounds for the mean square error of the adaptive density estimators for a fixed sample size are found and their strong consistency is proved. The convergence of these estimators in the almost sure sense is established. Simulation results illustrate the realization of the asymptotic behavior when the sample size grows large.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48907693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2022-12-24DOI: 10.3390/stats6010002
Pedro Chaim, M. Laurini
{"title":"Data Cloning Estimation and Identification of a Medium-Scale DSGE Model","authors":"Pedro Chaim, M. Laurini","doi":"10.3390/stats6010002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010002","url":null,"abstract":"We apply the data cloning method to estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The data cloning algorithm is a numerical method that employs replicas of the original sample to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator as the limit of Bayesian simulation-based estimators. We also analyze the identification properties of the model. We measure the individual identification strength of each parameter by observing the posterior volatility of data cloning estimates and access the identification problem globally through the maximum eigenvalue of the posterior data cloning covariance matrix. Our results corroborate existing evidence suggesting that the DSGE model of Smeets and Wouters is only poorly identified. The model displays weak global identification properties, and many of its parameters seem locally ill-identified.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43653798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
StatsPub Date : 2022-12-22DOI: 10.3390/stats6010001
Chathurangi H. Pathiravasan, B. Bhattacharya
{"title":"A Semiparametric Tilt Optimality Model","authors":"Chathurangi H. Pathiravasan, B. Bhattacharya","doi":"10.3390/stats6010001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010001","url":null,"abstract":"Practitioners often face the situation of comparing any set of k distributions, which may follow neither normality nor equality of variances. We propose a semiparametric model to compare those distributions using an exponential tilt method. This extends the classical analysis of variance models when all distributions are unknown by relaxing its assumptions. The proposed model is optimal when one of the distributions is known. Large-sample estimates of the model parameters are derived, and the hypotheses for the equality of the distributions are tested for one-at-a-time and simultaneous comparison cases. Real data examples from NASA meteorology experiments and social credit card limits are analyzed to illustrate our approach. The proposed approach is shown to be preferable in a simulated power comparison with existing parametric and nonparametric methods.","PeriodicalId":93142,"journal":{"name":"Stats","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46743794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}