基于记录值的未来体育记录的统计预测

IF 0.9 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Stats Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI:10.3390/stats6010008
Christina Empacher, U. Kamps, G. Volovskiy
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引用次数: 1

摘要

基于先前较低或较高记录的序列的未来记录值的点预测是通过间距的最大乘积方法来考虑的,其中假设基本分布分别是幂函数分布和帕累托分布。此外,还讨论并比较了精确和近似的预测区间的预期长度及其覆盖率。重点是在点和区间预测过程中导出显式表达式。预测和预测是人们感兴趣的,例如体育分析,它在几个体育学科中越来越受到关注。以往的运动记录预测工作主要基于极值理论。所提出的统计预测方法示例性地应用于来自田径各个学科的数据,以及根据每次接收得分方案基于梦幻足球积分的美式足球数据。讨论的结果与基本假设和基本分布的选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Statistical Prediction of Future Sports Records Based on Record Values
Point prediction of future record values based on sequences of previous lower or upper records is considered by means of the method of maximum product of spacings, where the underlying distribution is assumed to be a power function distribution and a Pareto distribution, respectively. Moreover, exact and approximate prediction intervals are discussed and compared with regard to their expected lengths and their percentages of coverage. The focus is on deriving explicit expressions in the point and interval prediction procedures. Predictions and forecasts are of interest, e.g., in sports analytics, which is gaining more and more attention in several sports disciplines. Previous works on forecasting athletic records have mainly been based on extreme value theory. The presented statistical prediction methods are exemplarily applied to data from various disciplines of athletics as well as to data from American football based on fantasy football points according to the points per reception scoring scheme. The results are discussed along with basic assumptions and the choice of underlying distributions.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
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审稿时长
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