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High-resolution reconstruction and driving mechanism analysis of XCO2 over mainland China based on the GAM-Optuna-ERT model 基于GAM-Optuna-ERT模型的中国大陆XCO2高分辨率重建及驱动机制分析
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108677
Yang Geng, Ning Du, Li Wang, Xiaodong Deng, Yujun Zuo, Ling Qian, Wenbo Zhu
{"title":"High-resolution reconstruction and driving mechanism analysis of XCO2 over mainland China based on the GAM-Optuna-ERT model","authors":"Yang Geng,&nbsp;Ning Du,&nbsp;Li Wang,&nbsp;Xiaodong Deng,&nbsp;Yujun Zuo,&nbsp;Ling Qian,&nbsp;Wenbo Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108677","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108677","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately monitoring atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentrations is essential for understanding the carbon cycle and formulating effective emission reduction policies. Although satellite remote sensing has achieved notable progress in retrieving column-averaged CO<sub>2</sub> (XCO<sub>2</sub>), challenges such as data discontinuity and limited spatial resolution persist. To address these issues, we propose a novel spatiotemporal reconstruction framework—GAM-Optuna-ERT—which integrates the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT), and the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization tool Optuna. GAM captures the temporal and spatial variation trends of XCO<sub>2</sub> and provides an initial background estimation; the ERT model effectively learns complex interactions among high-dimensional features to enhance prediction accuracy; Optuna automates hyperparameter tuning, thereby improving model robustness. Using OCO-2 satellite observations in conjunction with multi-source driving variables—including meteorological factors, vegetation indices, carbon emission inventories, and population density—we reconstruct monthly, seasonal, and annual XCO<sub>2</sub> distributions over mainland China from 2015 to 2020 at a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Validation against TCCON, WDCGG, and CAMS datasets demonstrates the model's high accuracy and stability. Furthermore, quantitative analysis using the Geodetector method reveals that the synergistic effects of vegetation photosynthesis and anthropogenic activities are key drivers of the spatial heterogeneity in XCO<sub>2</sub>. This study provides a technical foundation for high-resolution XCO<sub>2</sub> reconstruction and offers strong support for carbon monitoring and policymaking under China's “dual carbon” strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108677"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assimilating FY-4B satellite aerosol data to improve PM₂.₅ and surface shortwave radiation prediction 利用FY-4B卫星气溶胶资料改善PM 2。5、表面短波辐射预测
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108764
Fangzheng Hu , Feiyue Mao , Yi Zhang , Jia Hong , Lin Zang , Zhaoliang Zeng , Sicong Lin , Wei Gong , Daniel Rosenfeld
{"title":"Assimilating FY-4B satellite aerosol data to improve PM₂.₅ and surface shortwave radiation prediction","authors":"Fangzheng Hu ,&nbsp;Feiyue Mao ,&nbsp;Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Jia Hong ,&nbsp;Lin Zang ,&nbsp;Zhaoliang Zeng ,&nbsp;Sicong Lin ,&nbsp;Wei Gong ,&nbsp;Daniel Rosenfeld","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aerosols significantly impact solar radiation forecasts, but substantial uncertainties persist in numerical models due to inadequate aerosol representation. This study develops a data assimilation framework integrating hourly surface-level particulate matter (PM₂.₅) retrievals from the FY-4B geostationary satellite into the WRF-Chem model with solar radiation diagnostics via the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Assimilation experiments conducted over central and eastern China in November 2022 demonstrate marked improvements in PM₂.₅ forecasts, with correlation coefficients increasing from 0.39 to 0.82, and root mean square error (RMSE) decreasing by approximately 45%. Improved aerosol initial conditions significantly reduce uncertainties in surface downward shortwave radiation (SWDOWN) predictions, lowering midday bias by over 50% and RMSE by roughly 40% across the domain. Consistent forecast enhancements were verified through spatiotemporal analyses across various pollution levels. These results highlight the practical value of assimilating hourly FY-4B PM₂.₅ retrievals for simultaneously improving air quality and solar radiation forecasts. The proposed assimilation approach offers a robust, replicable solution for near-real-time operational forecasting, thereby supporting photovoltaic energy planning and effective air quality management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108764"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Benchmarking and lightweight correction of daily near-surface air temperature products over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原日近地表气温产品的基准化和轻量校正
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108784
Nan Zhou , Yao Xiao , Lin Zhao , Guojie Hu , Lingxiao Wang , Chong Wang , Ren Li , Guangyue Liu , Defu Zou , Xiangfei Li
{"title":"Benchmarking and lightweight correction of daily near-surface air temperature products over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Nan Zhou ,&nbsp;Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Guojie Hu ,&nbsp;Lingxiao Wang ,&nbsp;Chong Wang ,&nbsp;Ren Li ,&nbsp;Guangyue Liu ,&nbsp;Defu Zou ,&nbsp;Xiangfei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable near–surface air temperature (Ta) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is critical for energy balance closure, cryosphere assessment, and land–atmosphere modeling, yet complex relief and sparse gauges challenge gridded fields. We build a daily, lineage-spanning benchmark across 20 research-grade stations to evaluate five representative datasets—global land reanalysis, observation-conditioned regional fusions, and recent kilometer-scale, observation-based interpolations—under a unified collocation. Performance is stratified by eco-climatic zone (HI/HII), ground-thermal state (permafrost/seasonally frozen), and 500-m elevation bands. Observation-conditioned fields outperform the purely model-driven ERA5-Land reanalysis at the daily scale; the reanalysis shows a pervasive cold bias, strongest in HII winter. Elevation composites indicate rising R<sup>2</sup> and shrinking MAE from 3.0 to 4.5 km, with winter weakest seasonally. A lightweight two-stage correction—regime-aware height normalization (γ) followed by quantile mapping—cuts MAE by 0.5–2.0 °C and removes height-dependent cold bias. A unitless usability matrix translates multi-metric skill into scene-specific guidance by season–zone–elevation, offering an operational pathway to select and minimally correct TP Ta forcings transferable to other high-relief regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108784"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unusual tropical cyclone looping tracks associated with monsoon gyre near an isolated high mountain 在一座孤立的高山附近,与季风环流有关的不寻常的热带气旋循环路径
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108761
Weihao Wang , Xuyang Ge , Melinda Peng
{"title":"Unusual tropical cyclone looping tracks associated with monsoon gyre near an isolated high mountain","authors":"Weihao Wang ,&nbsp;Xuyang Ge ,&nbsp;Melinda Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108761","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108761","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The processes on Tropical cyclones' (TCs) looping tracks (LTs) near an isolated terrain are investigated with numerical simulations. The large-scale environmental fields of observed TCs approaching Taiwan Island with and without LTs are compared. LT cases exhibit a monsoon gyre (MG)-like circulation on the southeast side of the TC, in contrast to the non-looping cases. This circulation serves as a key background difference of the two types of TC motions. Idealized simulations show that when a TC approaches the island's topography from the east, the channeling effect enhances the northerly flow, accelerating the TC southward. Meanwhile, the MG is blocked by the topography, preventing it from merging with the TC as it does in the absence of topography, contributing to a separation between their centers. As a result, the westerly flow from the southern flank of MG can subsequently steer the TC. Thereafter, the merger of MG and TC circulation completes the LT. In contrast, a TC in the absence of either an MG or topography only exhibits a southward or northward deflection, without undergoing a LT. This study highlights the interactions among the TC, MG and topography may induce unusual TC tracks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108761"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Associations between the thermal spring timing variability and atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the past six decades in Finland 芬兰近60年温泉时间变率与大气遥相关模式的关系
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108752
Sadegh Kaboli , Ville Kankare , Ali Torabi Haghighi , Cintia Bertacchi Uvo , Elina Kasvi
{"title":"Associations between the thermal spring timing variability and atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the past six decades in Finland","authors":"Sadegh Kaboli ,&nbsp;Ville Kankare ,&nbsp;Ali Torabi Haghighi ,&nbsp;Cintia Bertacchi Uvo ,&nbsp;Elina Kasvi","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The timing of the spring season in the boreal region is shifting under global warming, with profound impacts on ecosystems and hydrological processes. However, the mechanisms driving this transition and its considerable interannual variability are not well described, especially regarding the influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This study examines the temporal variability of the observed thermal spring season across Finland, a boreal country warming faster than the global average. Key spring timing indices, including onset, end, duration, and growing season onset, were calculated and analyzed using high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) daily mean temperature data from 1961 to 2023. Spatial and temporal patterns were identified through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition, and their associations with major atmospheric teleconnection patterns were examined. Results indicated that during the past six decades, the spring onset has advanced by 2–6 days/decade, with the most pronounced changes in the coastal and southwestern parts of the country. The duration of the spring season has extended by 3–6 days/decade in the northern areas and along the southwestern coast. The early spring onset was associated with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and delayed spring end and growing season onset were linked to the positive phase of the East Atlantic–West Russia (EAWR) pattern. By contrast, an early growing season start was linked to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The duration of the thermal spring season showed a strong association with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108752"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145974755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Case study of aircraft icing in-cloud measurements and explicit supercooled water prediction in Eastern China 中国东部地区飞机结冰云中测量与显式过冷水预报实例研究
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108748
Liping Luo , Ming Xue , Xin Xu , Lin Deng , Junxia Li , Rong Zhang
{"title":"Case study of aircraft icing in-cloud measurements and explicit supercooled water prediction in Eastern China","authors":"Liping Luo ,&nbsp;Ming Xue ,&nbsp;Xin Xu ,&nbsp;Lin Deng ,&nbsp;Junxia Li ,&nbsp;Rong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the morning of 12 November 2022, severe aircraft icing occurred over Anhui Province, Eastern China during weather modification operations. In-situ airborne measurements revealed the presence of a substantial concentration of supercooled droplets with effective diameter exceeding 45 <span><math><mi>μ</mi></math></span>m, and liquid water content (LWC) above 1.2 g m<sup>−3</sup> during the icing event.</div><div>Given the importance of microphysical parameterization (MP) scheme for icing conditions, simulations using different multi-moment MP schemes, i.e., WDM6, NSSL, Milbrandt-Yau (MY) schemes, are conducted at 1-km grid spacing for the case. Comparisons against satellite observations indicate that the general evolution of the frontal system and surface precipitation are well reproduced by the simulations. However, all simulations underpredict upper-level clouds with cloud-top temperature below 240 K over the northeastern part of the front. Besides, WDM6 scheme produces ice cloud-top area (CTA) closest to satellite observations but only produces approximately half of the observed CTA for supercooled cloud tops. The Milbrandt-Yau scheme shows superior performance in simulating the cloud top features during the icing event. Examinations of explicit supercooled cloud water (SCW) prediction skills indicate that WDM6 generates excessive total number concentration (<em>Nt</em>) of small SCW, with <em>Nt</em> reaching up to 10<sup>11</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> and effective diameter (<em>ED</em>) below 20 <span><math><mi>μ</mi></math></span>m. In contrast, the NSSL scheme produces significantly larger SCW particles but substantially lower <em>Nt</em> at approximately 10<sup>7</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> and <em>ED</em> of above 200 <span><math><mi>μ</mi></math></span>m. Notably, the particle size distribution of SCW predicted by MY scheme is more realistic compared with in-situ aircraft measurements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108748"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145902906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gobi-sourced dust and dust–climate feedbacks in the March 2023 East Asian storm 2023年3月东亚风暴的戈壁沙尘和沙尘-气候反馈
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108735
Shuna Liang , Bin Wang , Yurui Zhang , Junhua Yang , Ove W. Haugvaldstad , Hui Tang
{"title":"Gobi-sourced dust and dust–climate feedbacks in the March 2023 East Asian storm","authors":"Shuna Liang ,&nbsp;Bin Wang ,&nbsp;Yurui Zhang ,&nbsp;Junhua Yang ,&nbsp;Ove W. Haugvaldstad ,&nbsp;Hui Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid escalating climate change and environmental instability, understanding the origins, transport mechanisms, and climatic-environmental impacts of intensifying East Asian dust storms has become crucial for global sustainability science. However, current research still faces critical limitations with lacking city- or site-level resolution for source apportionment, and quantitative assessments of the climatic and environmental effects of severe dust events are still insufficient. Here, we integrated in situ measurements, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations to investigate the extreme East Asian dust storm in March 2023. Results indicated that the Gobi Desert was the dominant source, contributing approximately 74.9–94.6 % to PM<sub>10</sub> levels across four northern Chinese cities. Fine particles (2.5–5.0 μm) exhibited faster and higher-altitude transport than coarse particles (&gt;7.5 μm), with consistent northwestward advection. Size-dependent deposition regimes emerged – dry deposition peaked for 7.5–10 μm particles, while wet deposition shifted from 5 to 7.5 μm in source regions to 2.5–5.0 μm in downwind North China. Crucially, we quantify the dust–climate feedback loop where aerosol-induced surface cooling by reducing surface solar radiation of 2.4–4.8 W m<sup>−2</sup>, which in turn suppresses surface turbulent kinetic energy and decrease the boundary layer height up to 40 m. The enhanced boundary layer stability subsequently promoted futher dust accumulation. By elucidating this positive feedback mechanism, our study moves beyond established correlations to reveal a key process amplifying extreme dust storms, with critical implications for predicting their intensity and impacts under a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108735"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Different driving mechanisms during two consecutive flash heavy rainfalls over the Sichuan Basin in China: A case study 四川盆地两次连续暴雨的不同驱动机制
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108787
Changqing Liu , Jie Cao , Chengzhi Deng , Furong Qian
{"title":"Different driving mechanisms during two consecutive flash heavy rainfalls over the Sichuan Basin in China: A case study","authors":"Changqing Liu ,&nbsp;Jie Cao ,&nbsp;Chengzhi Deng ,&nbsp;Furong Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two flash heavy rainfalls (FHRs) with short and extremely persistent durations during July 4–6, 2017 consecutively attacked the Sichuan Basin in China with breaking historical precipitation records. Based on multi-source precipitation datasets including rain gauge stations, satellite-based products, and reanalysis datasets, the two FHRs are thoroughly investigated in this study. High resolution numerical simulations are performed to analyze and compare the key mechanisms and diurnal characteristics between the two FHRs, together with other analytical techniques such as Barnes filtering and ageostrophic wind diagnostic equation. It is found that the precipitating event was dominated by combined effects of a low-level jet (LLJ) and the southwest vortex. Similarities and differences between the two FHRs are analyzed and concluded from the perspective of their key driving mechanisms. During the first FHR with short durations, geostrophic winds progressively intensified, while low-level southeasterlies underwent topographic convergence and uplifted over the northwestern basin. Under the background of weak geostrophic wind variations, the ageostrophic wind vector in the second FHR with extremely persistent durations exhibited pronounced clockwise diurnal rotation. Enhanced nocturnal southerlies poured moisture convergence into the basin, driving nighttime precipitation intensification. Steep basin-edge topography strengthened boundary layer friction (BLF) and intensified easterly ageostrophic winds. This deflection steered the LLJ southeastward, effectively channeling moisture into the storm area. Post-dawn enhancement of boundary layer friction increased ageostrophic moisture flux, slowing the precipitation decay rate. The inertial oscillation of ageostrophic winds critically governed the nocturnal enhancement and daytime suppression of rainfall by modulating moisture transport phases. Additionally, the post-dawn increase in boundary layer friction altered spatiotemporal configurations between ageostrophic winds and the LLJ, forming a key factor in precipitation process asymmetry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108787"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High-precision forecasting of 1 km resolution PWV and ZTD over China based on the Pangu-Weather system 基于盘古天气系统的中国1公里分辨率PWV和ZTD高精度预报
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108771
Zhihao Wang , Hongzhou Chai , Yuhao Ye , Min Wang , Peng Chen
{"title":"High-precision forecasting of 1 km resolution PWV and ZTD over China based on the Pangu-Weather system","authors":"Zhihao Wang ,&nbsp;Hongzhou Chai ,&nbsp;Yuhao Ye ,&nbsp;Min Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As key tropospheric parameters, zenith total delay (ZTD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) serve as core data supports for precise positioning of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), meteorological monitoring, and disaster early warning. However, existing observation and estimation methods generally suffer from technical bottlenecks, including insufficient spatiotemporal resolution, poor real-time performance, and data blind spots. To address this problem, this study proposes a novel retrieval method based on the Pangu-Weather system, aiming to achieve 7-day high-precision real-time forecasting of PWV and ZTD with 1 km resolution over the China. Using ERA5 reanalysis data as the initial field, the Pangu-Weather system is utilized to forecast meteorological parameters for the next 7 days, and preliminary PWV and ZTD products (Pangu-PWV, Pangu-ZTD) are obtained through integral calculation. Subsequently, based on GNSS data, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) is employed to establish the mapping relationship between latitude, longitude, digital elevation model (DEM), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), time, and tropospheric parameters. The Pangu products are calibrated to the ground height, generating high-precision PWV and ZTD products with 1 km resolution (MLP-PWV, MLP-ZTD). Accuracy verification results indicate that the RMSE between MLP-PWV and GNSS-PWV is 3.63 mm, and the R<sup>2</sup> is 0.95. For MLP-ZTD and GNSS-ZTD, the RMSE is 26.55 mm and the R<sup>2</sup> is 0.99, both demonstrating excellent spatiotemporal consistency. Application analysis using typhoon Doksuri in 2023 as a case study shows that MLP-PWV can accurately depict the spatial distribution of PWV during hazardous weather processes, overcoming the limitation that Pangu-PWV is unable to reliably calculate PWV above the Earth's surface. This study provides reliable data support for real-time monitoring of tropospheric parameters with high spatiotemporal resolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"334 ","pages":"Article 108771"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of full-scale turbulence intermittency on land-atmosphere interactions in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert 塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地全尺度湍流间歇性对陆气相互作用的影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108782
Peixuan Kang , Yan Ren , Hongsheng Zhang , Wei Wei , Yue Xu , Ali Mamtimin , Yu Wang , Meiqi Song , Jiening Liang , Lei Zhang , Jianping Huang
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