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Accelerated drying trends over Northeast Asia by anthropogenic forcing during 1948–2010 1948-2010 年间东北亚上空因人为强迫而加速的干燥趋势
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107781
Ruixia Guo , Jianping Huang , Haipeng Yu , Zeyong Hu
{"title":"Accelerated drying trends over Northeast Asia by anthropogenic forcing during 1948–2010","authors":"Ruixia Guo ,&nbsp;Jianping Huang ,&nbsp;Haipeng Yu ,&nbsp;Zeyong Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Northeast Asia has experienced a significant drying trend since the 1950s. Attribution of this drying trend is important for understanding drying and its response to anthropogenic forcing. Despite increasing evidence of human influence on surface air temperature and precipitation, how human-induced climate change is affecting the observed aridity change is poorly understood. Here, by employing a “dynamical adjustment” methodology, we present an alternative estimation of the anthropogenic influence on drying trends over Northeast Asia during 1948–2010 from the observational records. Decomposition analysis revealed that the exacerbation of drying trends over Northeast Asia is largely driven by evapotranspiration forcing, which contributed to approximately 64 % of the drying trend and almost doubled that attributed to precipitation deficit. The acceleration of the drying trend by evapotranspiration forcing was mainly attributable to anthropogenic warming effect on potential evapotranspiration (PET). Considering the integrated effect of anthropogenic forcing on both PET and precipitation, the results showed that anthropogenic forcing has increased the extent of the drying trend area by ∼21 % over Northeast Asia during 1948–2010. In particular, the magnitudes of drying trends were significantly amplified by anthropogenic forcing, resulting in an expansion of the areas with enhanced drying trend by ∼43 %. These findings provide compelling evidence of a human influence on half century-scale drying trends over Northeast Asia, implying the overall likelihood of drought events increasing in this region due to anthropogenic forcing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intercomparison of radar data assimilation systems for snowfall cases during the ICE-POP 2018 雷达数据同化系统在2018年ICE-POP期间降雪案例中的相互比较
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107804
Ji-Won Lee , Ki-Hong Min , Kao-Shen Chung , Cheng-Rong You , Chieh-Ying Ke , GyuWon Lee
{"title":"Intercomparison of radar data assimilation systems for snowfall cases during the ICE-POP 2018","authors":"Ji-Won Lee ,&nbsp;Ki-Hong Min ,&nbsp;Kao-Shen Chung ,&nbsp;Cheng-Rong You ,&nbsp;Chieh-Ying Ke ,&nbsp;GyuWon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107804","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107804","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study compares two data assimilation (DA) methods, the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) and three-dimensional variational analysis (3DVAR), in the assimilation of high-resolution three-dimensional remote sensing data. Different observation operators are applied to each DA method to reflect its specific characteristics and to provide best analysis for precipitation forecast over complex terrain. Since radial velocity has a linear relationship with wind components, it applies relatively easily to both DA methods. However, reflectivity has a nonlinear relationship with model state variables and LETKF applies direct DA, while 3DVAR uses indirect DA. A detailed analysis of two specific snowfall cases using ICE-POP 2018 observational data reveals significant differences in wind field changes. In 3DVAR, strong convergence on the windward side and the rapid growth of water vapor into hydrometeors during the forecast period lead to an overestimation of precipitation. In contrast, LETKF improves the simulation of airflow over mountains and enhances precipitation accuracy, attributed to the background error covariance matrix and observation operator. For accurate winter precipitation forecasts over complex terrain, high-resolution data and advanced DA techniques like LETKF are necessary, as they greatly improve snowfall prediction accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107804"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interdecadal shifts and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies of heavy precipitation during the warm-season in the Upper Yellow River Basin over the past 40 years 过去 40 年黄河上游流域暖季强降水的年代际变化及相关大气环流异常
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107801
Peilong Ye , Qiang Zhang , Jianshun Wang , Xinwei Liu , Dong Wei , Weicheng Liu , Yan Li , Xiaoyuan Huang , Zewen Gan
{"title":"Interdecadal shifts and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies of heavy precipitation during the warm-season in the Upper Yellow River Basin over the past 40 years","authors":"Peilong Ye ,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianshun Wang ,&nbsp;Xinwei Liu ,&nbsp;Dong Wei ,&nbsp;Weicheng Liu ,&nbsp;Yan Li ,&nbsp;Xiaoyuan Huang ,&nbsp;Zewen Gan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB), located at the junction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loess Plateau, and Inner Mongolia Plateau, plays a pivotal role in regional climate dynamics, hydrological processes, and ecological stability, primarily due to its precipitation variability. This study utilizes station-based observational data alongside atmospheric reanalysis data to investigate the interdecadal variability of heavy precipitation during the warm-season from 1980 to 2020 in the UYRB. Furthermore, it provides a comparative assessment of the atmospheric circulation patterns that influenced the observed shifts in heavy precipitation across different periods. The analysis revealed pronounced interdecadal changes in warm-season total precipitation (WSTP), heavy precipitation amount (R90p), and heavy precipitation frequency (R90d) around 2003. Heavy precipitation contributes approximately 40 % to the total precipitation, while changes in heavy precipitation account for up to 81 % of the increased total precipitation in the UYRB, the light precipitation exhibit a negative contribution, and moderate precipitation shows a slight positive contribution. Additionally, the variation in the frequency of heavy precipitation contributes the most, reaching 7 mm/10a, while the intensity of precipitation is only 1.5 mm/10a. After 2003, the frequency of heavy precipitation (R90d) during the warm-season increased by 14.4 %, whereas the intensity of heavy precipitation (R90t) rose by a modest 4.3 %, indicating that the increase in R90d predominantly drives the long-term trend in WSTP over the UYRB. The key factors such as moisture transport, moisture content, instability energy, and vertical motion were compared between two distinct periods: 1980–2002 (Period1) and 2003–2020 (Period2). During P2, there was a marked intensification of anomalous easterly moisture transport and moisture convergence throughout the atmospheric column, resulting in a nearly 50 % increases in net moisture input and a rise of 2.7 % in total columnar moisture content relative to P1. Atmospheric instability exhibited a slight increase, with notable anomalous convergent upward motion detected over the source region of the Yellow River and central Gansu province, likely intensified by orographic effects. A zonally-oriented “+ - +” Silk Road-like teleconnection pattern emerged in the mid-to-upper troposphere over Eurasia since 2003, enhancing westward moisture transport from the Indian Ocean and Pacific. This shift corresponded with increased moisture availability and vertical ascent during the warm-season, which is conducive to a significant increase in heavy precipitation over the UYRB.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107801"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unparalleled EA-like leading mode of variability in the early 20th century highlights the need for understanding non-stationarity in the North Atlantic climate system 20 世纪初无与伦比的类似 EA 的主导变率模式凸显了了解北大西洋气候系统非稳态性的必要性
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796
A. Halifa-Marín , E. Pravia-Sarabia , M.A. Torres-Vázquez , R. Trigo , S.M. Vicente-Serrano , S. Jerez , M. Turco , P. Jiménez-Guerrero , J.P. Montávez
{"title":"Unparalleled EA-like leading mode of variability in the early 20th century highlights the need for understanding non-stationarity in the North Atlantic climate system","authors":"A. Halifa-Marín ,&nbsp;E. Pravia-Sarabia ,&nbsp;M.A. Torres-Vázquez ,&nbsp;R. Trigo ,&nbsp;S.M. Vicente-Serrano ,&nbsp;S. Jerez ,&nbsp;M. Turco ,&nbsp;P. Jiménez-Guerrero ,&nbsp;J.P. Montávez","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dominant winter modes of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns. This study examines their multi-decadal variability over the Instrumental Period. We identify stages through which interactions between NAO and both EA and SCA phases alter westerly winds and precipitation anomalies in Europe, which would be overlooked if only NAO phases were considered. Additionally, we show periods where EA becomes the leading mode, likely driven by natural ocean-atmosphere coupling variability, which can enhance climate reconstructions and projections. This study also provides new insights into shifts in NAO action centers. The recent shift (post-1980s) is notably distinct within the Instrumental Period. Unlike previous NAO pattern variations, EA and SCA intensify simultaneously, contributing to an expansion of the Azores High, combined with the Atlantic Ridge and/or Scandinavian Blocking. This results in drier conditions in southern Europe and wetter conditions in the north. The simultaneous intensification of NAO, EA, and SCA supports hypotheses of the Azores High expanding towards Central Europe. While this study does not attribute the shift to global warming, the eastward displacement of the northern NAO center post-1980s suggests some anthropogenic forcing through atmospheric and oceanic warming. We thus propose keeping this issue open, despite recent NAO reconstructions not identifying a singular signal in the latter half of the 20th century.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Influence of clouds on planetary boundary layer height: A comparative study and factors analysis 云对行星边界层高度的影响:比较研究和因素分析
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107784
Hui Li , Boming Liu , Wei Gong , Yingying Ma , Shikuan Jin , Weiyan Wang , Ruonan Fan , Shuailong Jiang
{"title":"Influence of clouds on planetary boundary layer height: A comparative study and factors analysis","authors":"Hui Li ,&nbsp;Boming Liu ,&nbsp;Wei Gong ,&nbsp;Yingying Ma ,&nbsp;Shikuan Jin ,&nbsp;Weiyan Wang ,&nbsp;Ruonan Fan ,&nbsp;Shuailong Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Clouds are one of the key factors influencing the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Understanding the complex interactions between clouds and PBL height (PBLH) is essential for accurately simulating and predicting PBL processes. This study investigates the impact of clouds on PBLH evolution based on the lidar, radiosonde, ceilometer, and meteorological parameters observations at the Southern Great Plains site during the period January 2013 to December 2020. The findings indicates that the presence of clouds has an impact on the evolution of the PBLH. During the daytime, PBLH is lower under cloudy conditions than clear conditions, whereas during nighttime, PBLH is higher under cloudy conditions. This phenomenon arises because the intense solar radiation on clear days and strong turbulent mixing on cloudy nights contribute to the formation and maintenance of PBLH. Furthermore, during the daytime, clouds scatter and absorb solar radiation, leading to lower net radiation (NetR), sensible heat flux (SHF), surface temperature (TEM), and soil temperature (SoilT). These conditions, coupled with weaker turbulence intensity and high relative humidity (RH), leading to lower PBLH under cloudy conditions. Although TEM and SoilT are relatively high during clear nights, rapid surface radiative cooling and strong atmospheric stability inhibit the development of the PBLH. Consequently, during cloudy nights, clouds absorb and reflect longwave radiation from the surface, reducing surface radiative cooling rates, enhancing atmospheric instability and turbulence intensity. Furthermore, higher NetR and SHF, along with decreased RH, result in slightly deeper PBLH compared to clear conditions. Overall, this study systematically elucidates the influence of clouds on PBLH evolution and contributes to the understanding of the modulation of cloud on PBL structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107784"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assimilation of high-resolution GNSS tropospheric delays and its effects on a severe convective event nowcasting 高分辨率全球导航卫星系统对流层延迟的同化及其对严重对流事件预报的影响
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107785
Yuxin Zheng , Cuixian Lu , Zhilu Wu , Zhenyu Guan , Jiafeng Li , Zhuo Wang , Chengbo Liu
{"title":"Assimilation of high-resolution GNSS tropospheric delays and its effects on a severe convective event nowcasting","authors":"Yuxin Zheng ,&nbsp;Cuixian Lu ,&nbsp;Zhilu Wu ,&nbsp;Zhenyu Guan ,&nbsp;Jiafeng Li ,&nbsp;Zhuo Wang ,&nbsp;Chengbo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A crucial factor limiting convective weather nowcasting is the lack of timely updated and accurate atmospheric water vapor observations. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can accurately sense water vapor with high temporal resolutions, which is adequate to observe many meso- and small-scale variations associated with convective weather. In this contribution, an hourly cycling data assimilation system is established to investigate the influence of assimilating GNSS zenith total delays (ZTD) on severe convective weather nowcasting. The contributions of assimilating ZTD with different temporal resolutions are discussed in detail by validating with the radiosonde observations. The results demonstrate that the assimilation of ZTD significantly improves the moisture distribution of the middle and lower troposphere. Furthermore, model simulations become wetter or drier as the frequency of ZTD assimilation increases. Verification of the precipitation forecasts is performed by comparing them with the radar-estimated precipitation. The results indicate that assimilation of GNSS ZTD improves the accuracy of precipitation forecast in the nowcasting range of 0–6 h. Compared to the control experiment, the hourly ZTD assimilation experiment reveals the highest precipitation forecast skill scores, followed by the experiments of assimilating ZTD every three and six hours, indicating that the rapid update of water vapor information could contribute to improving the precipitation nowcasting in a rapidly developing convective system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107785"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating secondary ice production in a deep convective cloud with a 3D bin microphysics model: Part II - Effects on the cloud formation and development 利用 3D bin 微物理模型研究深对流云中的二次产冰:第二部分 - 对云的形成和发展的影响
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107797
Pierre Grzegorczyk , Wolfram Wobrock , Antoine Canzi , Laurence Niquet , Frédéric Tridon , Céline Planche
{"title":"Investigating secondary ice production in a deep convective cloud with a 3D bin microphysics model: Part II - Effects on the cloud formation and development","authors":"Pierre Grzegorczyk ,&nbsp;Wolfram Wobrock ,&nbsp;Antoine Canzi ,&nbsp;Laurence Niquet ,&nbsp;Frédéric Tridon ,&nbsp;Céline Planche","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Secondary ice production (SIP) leads to the formation of new ice particles from preexisting ones. Besides generating ice crystals, SIP can also influence cloud characteristics, including convection, precipitation, and even radiative properties. This study examines the effect of ice crystal formation by Hallett-Mossop, fragmentation of freezing drops, and fragmentation due to ice–ice collision processes in an idealized deep convective cloud observed during the HAIC/HIWC campaign, using the 3D bin microphysics scheme DESCAM. Our results indicate that heterogeneous ice nucleation and fragmentation of freezing drops play a role during the early formation of the cloud while after that, Hallett-Mossop and ice-ice breakup processes dominate, representing 17.6 % and 81.5 % of the ice crystal production, for temperatures warmer than −30°C. For temperatures colder than −30°C, homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation processes are the main contributors to ice crystal formation. The impact of each SIP process on particle size distributions is analyzed by tracking air parcel trajectories. This study also shows the effect of SIP processes on cloud development. Implementing SIP results in a decrease in cloud top altitude by around 1.5 km. Our analysis shows that this effect is caused by increased latent heat released below 11 km, resulting from a stronger vapor deposition on more numerous ice crystals. This enhances convection at lower levels but inhibits it above. Furthermore, incorporating SIP leads to 15 % decrease in total precipitation amount and 25 % reduction of intense rainfall (accumulated precipitation over 40 mm). Hence, our study emphasizes the importance of SIP mechanisms in cloud development and precipitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107797"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of land surface processes on summer extreme precipitation in Eastern China: Insights from CWRF simulations 陆面过程对中国东部夏季极端降水的影响:CWRF模拟的启示
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107783
Chenyi Zhang , Qingquan Li , Xin-Zhong Liang , Lili Dong , Bing Xie , Weiping Li , Chao Sun
{"title":"Impacts of land surface processes on summer extreme precipitation in Eastern China: Insights from CWRF simulations","authors":"Chenyi Zhang ,&nbsp;Qingquan Li ,&nbsp;Xin-Zhong Liang ,&nbsp;Lili Dong ,&nbsp;Bing Xie ,&nbsp;Weiping Li ,&nbsp;Chao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the impacts of land surface processes on summer extreme precipitation is crucial for accurate climate predictions. This study investigated these impacts across three subregions of eastern China (North China, Central China, and South China) using the regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting model with two land surface parameterization schemes: the Conjunctive Surface–Subsurface Process (CSSP) scheme and the NOAH Land Surface Model (NOAH). When compared with observational and reanalysis data, both schemes were found to successfully reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation, with the CSSP scheme showing distinct advantages in simulating evapotranspiration. The influence of land surface processes on summer extreme precipitation varies among the three subregions, largely depending on soil moisture conditions. In North China, a transitional zone between arid and humid regions, soil moisture primarily influences extreme precipitation, with biases arising from difference between the lifting condensation level and the planetary boundary layer height. In Central China, where soil moisture is moderate, soil moisture and net radiation jointly influence extreme precipitation, with biases linked to the planetary boundary layer height. In South China, where soil moisture is mostly saturated during summer, net radiation dominates the variability of land surface variables, with latent heat bias leading to extreme precipitation bias. Overall, soil moisture affects extreme precipitation by altering the energy and stability of the planetary boundary layer and the lifting condensation level. These findings could inform the assessment and future improvement of models, and support the monitoring and predicting of extreme precipitation events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107783"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach 气候变化对 2022 年日本北部局部暴雨事件的影响:伪全球变暖方法的不确定性
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780
Ryotaro Tahara, Yusuke Hiraga, So Kazama
{"title":"Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach","authors":"Ryotaro Tahara,&nbsp;Yusuke Hiraga,&nbsp;So Kazama","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study used the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to examine the effects of climate change on localized heavy rainfall events in the Tohoku and Hokuriku regions in August 2022. This heavy rainfall event is one of the representative cases of heavy rainfall in the region, in which water vapor transport from the Sea of Japan is a key factor, and its frequency and magnitude are projected to increase with climate change. Our modeling results showed that the simulated 48-h precipitation under the projected 2090s warming conditions increased by 34.6 % compared to precipitation without consideration of future warming effects. In general, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and convection instability over the ocean increased with future warming. While the rate of increase in water vapor is generally consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (7 %/K) based on surface temperature rise, the 48-h cumulative precipitation notably exceeds this scaling rate, even larger than triple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This increase in precipitation is driven by a combination of thermodynamic effects—such as enhanced water vapor content with rising temperatures—and dynamic effects, including strengthened updrafts. We showed that the model domain location can significantly affect the simulated precipitation and its changes in PGW simulations. For instance, a 29.2 % change in 48-h precipitation was observed solely due to the geospatial shift of the innermost domain. This finding indicates the importance of the model domain location as a source of uncertainty in the PGW method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107780"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Accelerating onset of heatwaves after the Meiyu termination in the middle-lower Yangtze River basin 梅雨终止后长江中下游流域热浪的加速出现
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学
Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107782
Wei Jiang , Ting Ding , Hui Gao
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