Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Increasingly frequent and severe dry-to-wet abrupt alteration events are striking the Yangtze River Basin in China","authors":"Zhanrui Huang ,&nbsp;Xiao Chen ,&nbsp;Zhihua Pan ,&nbsp;Riping Gao ,&nbsp;Jingyu Men ,&nbsp;Pengshuai Bi ,&nbsp;Na Huang ,&nbsp;Fangxiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Rongdao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dry-to-wet abrupt alteration events (DWAA) are characterized by the rapid transition from drought to heavy rainfall, with serious impacts on agricultural production and society in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). However, a key research gap is the lack of comprehensive DWAA identification methods to accurately capture short-term DWAA features. Here, an improved pentad-scale DWAA index combining standardized soil moisture indexes and standardized precipitation indexes is proposed and the temporal and spatial characteristics of DWAA are identified using ERA5-Land reanalysis data. The results show that, from 1980 to 2022, the average of frequency, duration, strength, and rate of rapid alteration of DWAA in the YRB have significantly increased. Compared with the 1980s, the average duration of DWAA extended from 6.2 pentads to 6.3 pentads in the 2010s, and the average rapid alteration rate increased from 2.8 pentad⁻¹ to 2.9 pentad⁻¹. High occurrence areas of DWAA (20 times) were observed in east and south of the YRB and northwestern Sichuan. These regions also experienced prolonged duration of up to 13 pentads and great strength of 17. Based on the Cumulative Distribution Function and Copula function, the average state of DWAA (50th percentile, duration of 5 pentads, strength of 8.2) had a recurrence period of 1 year, while extreme state events (90th percentile, duration of 9 pentads, strength of 15.1) had a recurrence period of 90 years. These findings can provide an important scientific basis for local governments to improve the regional responding capacity and development of disaster prevention and mitigation policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107926"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Liquid cloud drop effective radius over China: A 20-year MODIS-based assessment” [Atmospheric Research 312 (2024) 107750].","authors":"Xiaolin Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuanzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Yele Sun ,&nbsp;Xiaojing Shen ,&nbsp;Huizheng Che ,&nbsp;Thomas Choularton","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107925","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107925"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dubai's record precipitation event of 16 April 2024 – A diagnosis","authors":"Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian ,&nbsp;Philip Sagero ,&nbsp;Laban Lameck Kebacho ,&nbsp;Victor Ongoma","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding climate extremes is crucial for improving forecasting accuracy to minimise the associated loss of lives and property. On 16 April 2024, Dubai, an arid desert region in the United Arab Emirates, recorded unprecedented very heavy precipitation, causing widespread flooding and significant socio-economic impacts. This study investigates the atmospheric conditions that contributed to the event using hourly data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' fifth-generation reanalysis. A composite analysis of precipitation and atmospheric conditions during the event is conducted. Findings reveal enhanced convective activities, likely modulated by large-scale flow patterns and strong low-level convergence associated with moisture transport dynamics from the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf. Strong cyclonic circulation anomalies in the lower to mid-troposphere supported persistent upward vertical motion, promoting deep convective cloud formation. High convective available potential energy and a pronounced mid-level atmospheric trough were evident, indicators of an unstable atmosphere conducive to deep convection. Strong upper-level subtropical jets further facilitated and sustained the convective processes. The combined atmospheric conditions from the lower to upper troposphere provided conditions highly favourable for deep cloud formation, leading to the extreme precipitation event. This study highlights the importance of understanding factors, such as moisture transport dynamics, low-pressure systems, and upper-level jets, in forecasting extreme precipitation in the UAE region. Improving the knowledge of these circulations is essential for enhancing the accuracy of climate extremes forecasting and monitoring, enabling better preparedness and effective, practical anticipatory measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107924"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143027351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of flood-causing rainstorm events in China from a 3D perspective","authors":"Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaodan Guan ,&nbsp;Shiguang Miao","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods induced by rainstorm events (RSEs) are among the most frequent natural disasters and have a significant impact on ecosystems and human society. While most extensive researches have investigated the magnitude, frequency, and risk of floods, understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of contiguous flood-causing rainstorm events remains largely unexplored in China. Here, we collected historical flood disaster data from the Statistical Yearbook, news reports, and government sources and examined the evolution patterns of spatiotemporally contiguous flood-causing RSEs across China from 2000 to 2020, utilizing the connected component three-dimensional algorithm. Our results indicate that floods mostly occur in southern China (SC), followed by northern China (NC), with less frequency in northwestern China (NWC) and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP). The flood-causing RSEs tend to occur with longer durations and higher magnitudes in SC and NC, while in NWC and TP, they are primarily characterized by short-term precipitation processes with lower magnitudes. Moreover, the flood-causing RSEs exhibit distinct evolutionary patterns in different subregions. In NWC and TP, RSEs generally move eastward and southeastward, with relatively longer lifespans, traveling longer distances at faster moving speeds, but covering smaller areal extent and lower accumulated rainfall amounts. In contrast, in both SC and NC, flood-causing rainstorm events are mainly moved in two directions, namely westwards and eastwards. These events have shorter average lifespans, and travel shorter moving distances at slower moving speeds, but have a larger areal extent and huge accumulated rainfall amounts. Our findings significantly enhance our understanding of flood-causing rainstorm characteristics in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107920"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142988097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing Air Pollution Forecasts in Cities by Characterizing the Urban Heat Island Effects on Planetary Boundary Layers","authors":"Leo Matak,&nbsp;Mostafa Momen","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization can cause serious air pollution and human health problems in densely populated cities. Urban areas have complex surface characteristics that can highly impact microclimate and air quality in these environments. Cities are typically warmer than their surroundings due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect caused by anthropogenic activities and unique urban surface properties. However, the UHI impacts on air quality and aerosol forecasts in major cities have not been well understood yet. The objective of this paper is to address this knowledge gap by characterizing the impacts of the UHI on meteorological and aerosol forecasts in cities. To this end, more than 30 days of simulations over two major US cities (Houston and Dallas) are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). In total, 78 simulations are conducted by varying the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes, urban models, and various UHI magnitudes. Our results indicate that the current urban schemes in WRF do not accurately parameterize UHI effects which can highly influence their air pollution and meteorological forecasts. The lack of proper UHI representation causes a more stable atmosphere during nighttime as the model does not account for additional heating that occurs in major cities. This leads to the accumulation of aerosol forecasts on urban surfaces and overestimated particulate matter forecasts. By enhancing the UHI representation, we were able to remarkably improve the default WRF-Chem forecasts of particulate matter and ozone by an average of ∼50 % and ∼12 % in Houston, respectively. Similar improvements were obtained for Dallas, and different PBL and urban schemes. The study underscores the significance of urban-specific models such as the UHI effect for accurate meteorological and aerosol forecasts in cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107923"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Operational satellite cloud products need local adjustment – The Galapagos case of ecoclimatic cloud zonation","authors":"Nazli Turini ,&nbsp;Byron Delgado Maldonado ,&nbsp;Samira Zander ,&nbsp;Steve Darwin Bayas López ,&nbsp;Daniela Ballari ,&nbsp;Rolando Célleri ,&nbsp;Johanna Orellana - Alvear ,&nbsp;Benjamin Schmidt ,&nbsp;Dieter Scherer ,&nbsp;Jörg Bendix","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Like many small oceanic islands, the Galapagos archipelago, renowned for its unique geographic location and exceptional endemic biodiversity, faces significant challenges under climate change. In particular, the atmospheric water supply for the ecosystem and the local population is under threat, with clouds and rain playing an important role in ensuring freshwater availability under climate change. Better planning of adaptation measures would require climate data on clouds as a prerequisite for precipitation and rainfall at high spatio-temporal resolution, which are not available in this area. Operational products such as satellite derived cloud and precipitation products or reanalysis data are widely used to compensate for the lack of local data availability but are often poorly suited for regional applications. In the current study, we aim to generate high quality area-wide cloud information to distinguish ecoclimatic cloud zones that may require different adaptation measures to climate change. To address this issue, we have developed a new physical rule-based cloud mask retrieval specifically tailored for the Galapagos Archipelago, based on data from the third generation GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) geostationary satellite. The new Galapagos Rainfall Retrieval (GRR) cloudmask was tested against independent observational data and compared to both the operational GOES-16 ACM (ABI Clear sky Mask) and the MODIS cloudmask benchmark cloud mask. Our test results confirm that the GRR-cloudmask (Probability of Detection POD = 0.94, Critical Success Index CSI = 0.92–0.93) clearly outperforms the operational ACM-cloudmask (POD = 0.56–0.68, CSI = 0.55–0.67). Area-wide tests against the MODIS cloud mask showed a CSI of 0.72 and a POD of 0.74 for the ACM, which is superior to the GOES-16 ACM-cloudmask. We produced cloud frequency maps for all months and day slots and analysed cloud frequency using ancillary meteorological data. In general, the cool season (Jun-Dec) / night shows much higher cloud frequencies than the warm season (Jan-May) / daytime. However, regional cloud patterns differ along a west-to-east and south-to-north gradient, depending on complex interactions of forcing parameters such as exposure to the main circulation, sea surface temperature zones, altitude and land cover. A k-mean cluster analysis resulted in nine ecoclimatic cloud zones over land, which are much more differentiated than the widely used four-zone classification. The results will help to develop more site-specific climate change adaptation planning for the iconic Galapagos National Park.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107918"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi criteria evaluation of downscaled CMIP6 models in predicting precipitation extremes","authors":"Rishi Gupta,&nbsp;Prem Prakash,&nbsp;Vinay Chembolu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The selection of general circulation models (GCMs) is primary information required for assessing climate change impacts on the hydrological vulnerability of any region. The uncertainties associated with GCMs at the regional scale are mostly attributable to coarser representation of climatic processes, making model ranking an essential step for improving multi-model ensemble (MME) performance. The present study evaluated 13 downscaled-bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs for eight extreme precipitation indices over the flood-prone Brahmaputra River basin. Precipitation extremes from 1985 to 2014 were employed to evaluate model performance at a grid resolution of 0.25°, while projected events were assessed for the early future (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100). Individual rankings for precipitation indices were determined using five multicriteria decision-making (MDCM) techniques: TOPSIS, VIKOR, EDAS, PROMETHEE-II, and Performance Matrix. The Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) technique was used to assign weights to each performance indicator for indices-wise ranking. The comprehensive ranking from the various MCDM techniques was further obtained using group decision-making method. The results show that different models are better at capturing different precipitation characteristics, necessitating indices-based rankings for future estimates. The study additionally indicates that Multi-Model Ensemble, MME8, and MME5 outperformed the other ensembles in reducing simulation uncertainty in downscaled GCMs. Future projections indicate an overall increase in precipitation extremes, with the best model ensembles predicting a wetter early future and a drier far future than all model ensembles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107921"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142988146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why have extreme low-temperature events in northern Asia strengthened since the turn of the 21st century?","authors":"Hongbo Hu ,&nbsp;Yanyan Huang ,&nbsp;Dapeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Botao Zhou ,&nbsp;Huijun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107919","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107919","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study reveals that the intensity of cold-season (October–March) extreme low-temperature events (ELTs) during 1982–2022 strengthened after the year 2000 over northern Asia, along with a decrease in their frequency. Two significant interdecadal changes in cold-season atmospheric circulations after the year 2000 were found to be associated with these changes. Firstly, there has been an increased occurrence of extremely strong blocking highs over the North Atlantic, promoting anomalous meridional circulation. Secondly, the upper-level jet stream has weakened, reducing the polar vortex and strengthening the cold polar air that erupts southward. Statistical analysis and model experiments suggest that the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation after the year 2000 may have contributed to the strengthened ELTs by causing deep warming over the North Atlantic. The direct thermodynamic effects of deep warming intensify the blocking high over the North Atlantic. Simultaneously, an anomalous easterly wind appears in the upper troposphere due to thermal wind theory, and the weakened jet stream results in a stronger meridional flow, leading to an extremely strong blocking high.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107919"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142988144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6: Feedback, AMOC, and precipitation responses","authors":"Xinqi Wang ,&nbsp;Lijuan Li ,&nbsp;He Wang ,&nbsp;Ling Zuo ,&nbsp;Bin Wang ,&nbsp;Feng Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To unravel the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) changes of the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) during the upgrade, 10 pairs of CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) models from different centers were categorized into high and low ECS groups according to their ECS and surface air temperature response to CO₂. Results showed that the higher ECS of the CMIP6 multimodel mean is derived primarily from five models of the high group, and is contributed by both stronger positive cloud feedback (CF) and stronger albedo feedback relative to the corresponding values in the CMIP5 models, and the spread of CF is associated with that of the ECS. Positive albedo feedback in the Arctic may be related to the relationship between weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and diminishing sea ice area (SIA). For example, the stronger albedo feedback in the CMIP6 high group is linked to the strongly weakening AMOC and sharply reducing SIA, further associated with their mean states compared with those of the CMIP5 models. The higher CF in the CMIP6 high group results from the greater reduction in both cloud area fraction (CAF) and ice water path (IWP) and the weaker increase in the liquid water path (LWP), leading to enhanced shortwave CF and reduced longwave CF. Furthermore, when the total precipitation response is dominated by only the convective or stratiform component, it is prone to substantial increase by the model upgrade, thereby notably affecting the changes in CAF, IWP, and LWP and the variation in CF and ECS in the high group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107917"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142988145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tornadic environments in Mexico","authors":"José Francisco León-Cruz","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tornadoes represent a significant threat to society. In Mexico, these natural hazards are common, principally from the end of spring until autumn, with a mean of around 45 events yearly (2013−2022). Although there is no official tornado database in Mexico with a proper tornado classification, it is known that supercell and non-supercell tornadogenesis is possible in the country. In this context, the present investigation examines the environments under 298 confirmed and validated tornadoes formed in the Mexican territory. Such analysis was made using the proximity-sounding approach with the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. In addition, using the k-means clustering method, three Tornadic Environment Types were found, each with specific characteristics. The first type is the most common environment, documented throughout the year, particularly during summer and the beginning of autumn. Intermediate instability conditions, without wind shear, and high humidity near the surface characterize it. The second type is observed in high altitudes during the spring, with relatively dry conditions and low unstable environments. The previous examples may relate to non-supercell tornadogenesis in different geographical regions and seasons. In contrast, the third type can be associated with significant tornadoes, an environment rich in instability and wind shear, concentrated in the northern portions of Mexico during spring. The findings of this research provide insights into increasing understanding of tornadoes in Mexico. Furthermore, it can be helpful to generate improvements in tornado forecasting at the national level, offering a range of tornadic environment types under which these natural hazards can develop. The clustering method results offer an alternative option for the classification of tornadoes in countries with little capacity for the official classification of these phenomena.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"315 ","pages":"Article 107916"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142939738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}