Atmospheric Research最新文献_第4页

Influence mechanism of surface evaporation on a summer heavy rainfall event in the Three-River-Headwater Region of the Tibet Plateau

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108478

Shujing Shen , Hui Xiao , Huiling Yang , Weixi Shu

{"title":"Influence mechanism of surface evaporation on a summer heavy rainfall event in the Three-River-Headwater Region of the Tibet Plateau","authors":"Shujing Shen , Hui Xiao , Huiling Yang , Weixi Shu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the WRF model, this study investigates the impact mechanisms of surface evaporation—including three types (direct soil evaporation, canopy evaporation, and vegetation transpiration), evaporation rates, and re-evaporation of prior precipitation on the “08·24” heavy rainfall event in the Three-River-Headwater Region of Tibet Plateau. Results demonstrate that eliminating direct soil evaporation significantly reduces afternoon scattered precipitation during the development stage (due to suppressed land surface moisture flux under peak solar radiation), while suppressing vegetation transpiration decreases precipitation across all stages (via disrupted moisture supply from stomatal conductance). Canopy evaporation primarily affects precipitation during the mature and dissipation stages (by releasing intercepted water within hours post-precipitation). Increasing evaporation rates enhances precipitation (maximum more than 40 % during the development stage). Crucially, re-evaporation of former precipitation sustains rainfall in mature/dissipation stages (through moisture recycling of precipitation). Sensitivity experiments quantify stage-specific conversions in the water vapor-hydrometeor-precipitation chain and establish a novel conceptual model of precipitation-evaporation feedback, providing the first mechanistic insights into heterogeneous evaporation controls on extreme rainfall in high-altitude “water towers”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108478"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting forecast quality before events through machine learning: Preliminary results of cloud-resolving quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan for westbound typhoons 透过机器学习预估预报质量：台湾西行台风云分辨定量降水预报的初步结果

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108479

Shin-Hau Chen, Chung-Chieh Wang

{"title":"Projecting forecast quality before events through machine learning: Preliminary results of cloud-resolving quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan for westbound typhoons","authors":"Shin-Hau Chen, Chung-Chieh Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A long-standing problem of all numerical weather predictions, regardless deterministic or ensemble, is the more accurate assessment in probability (or likelihood) for the predicted scenario to occur, especially at longer lead times due to typically larger errors. The rapid development of artificial intelligence today may offer an effective method to tackle this issue. In this study, a neural-network machine-learning model is developed to, after training, project the expected value of the similarity skill score (SSS) of predicted total rainfall distribution in Taiwan for westward-moving typhoons during their influence period, thus serving as an objective guidance for the quality of the prediction. Ten typhoons are included, and a total of 105 parameters linked to rainfall are used from time-lagged forecasts (out to 8 days) every 6 h by a cloud-resolving model, when they cover the entire influence period (inside 300 km from Taiwan) with enough lead time. For each typhoon, only data from the other nine cases are used to train the model.</div><div>The results indicate that machine learning can capture the tendency of the actual SSS (calculated against observed rainfall) for most cases (eight out of ten), thereby informing the forecasters which quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are more trustworthy and which other ones are less so beforehand. Such guidance is particularly valuable at longer lead times, when the forecast uncertainty is relatively high. Thus, our results are highly encouraging. Nevertheless, if a typhoon behaves differently in forecasts from those that serve as the training data, the outcome would be less useful. Possible directions to remedy this issue and make further improvement are also offered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108479"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

AI-driven framework for high-precision seamless sunshine duration estimation using Himawari-8 satellite and ground observations 基于Himawari-8卫星和地面观测的高精度无缝日照时数估算的人工智能驱动框架

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108473

Honglei Wu , Zhaohua Liu , Zhaoliang Zeng , Ke Gui , Zhijian Lin , Peng Xie , Ruqing Zhu , Zhehao Liang , Yaqiang Wang , Huizheng Che

{"title":"AI-driven framework for high-precision seamless sunshine duration estimation using Himawari-8 satellite and ground observations","authors":"Honglei Wu , Zhaohua Liu , Zhaoliang Zeng , Ke Gui , Zhijian Lin , Peng Xie , Ruqing Zhu , Zhehao Liang , Yaqiang Wang , Huizheng Che","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate sunshine duration (SD) estimation is vital for large-scale, dynamic applications, such as agricultural planning, urban development, and solar energy optimization. Ground-based observations, with their sparse stations and limited coverage, often fall short of meeting these requirements. In contrast, satellite-based methods, particularly those utilizing high spatial resolution data, have become increasingly important in addressing these limitations. To address the need for enhanced precision and coverage, this study developed an AI-driven framework using high-resolution Himawari-8 L1 Gridded data for the first time. By integrating multiple machine learning models with a stacked generalization algorithm, the framework enables seamless and highly accurate SD estimation. The proposed method demonstrates significant potential for wide-spread application. Tests conducted in Jiangxi Province China have confirmed its reliability. The model achieved a high R<sup>2</sup> of 0.969, with RMSE and MAE of 0.752 and 0.519 h, respectively. We further analyzed the distribution of SD across different land-use types. The results indicate that croplands and forests are predominantly located in areas with longer SD, reflecting the adaptive choices made by human activities and ecosystems in response to sunlight conditions. This finding suggests that SD can serve as a critical reference for the planning of croplands and forestlands. Moreover, it provides robust data support and scientific guidance for future regional land-use optimization, sustainable agricultural development, and renewable energy planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108473"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparisons of SPI and SPEI in capturing drought dynamics: A Global assessment across arid and humid regions SPI和SPEI在捕获干旱动态方面的比较：干旱和潮湿地区的全球评估

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108475

Mustafa Mwinjuma , Ren Wang , Msafiri Mtupili , Mnana Twaha

{"title":"Comparisons of SPI and SPEI in capturing drought dynamics: A Global assessment across arid and humid regions","authors":"Mustafa Mwinjuma , Ren Wang , Msafiri Mtupili , Mnana Twaha","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately capturing drought change is particularly important in the face of climate change, especially given the need to understand the influence of temperature changes on drought under different climatic conditions. In this study, we compared two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based only on precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on precipitation and temperature, across global arid and humid regions for the period from 1991 to 2020. Through multi-scale analysis of gridded climate data spanning 1- to 24-month timescales, we systematically investigated how temperature influences drought characterization across arid and humid regions. Key findings reveal fundamental divergences in drought detection: while SPI and SPEI show strong agreement in humid regions (R<sup>2</sup> > 0.80), their correlation declines sharply along the aridity gradient, reaching complete divergence (Δ = −100 %) in hyper-arid zones. The SPEI identifies 22–35 % more drought events than the SPI in arid/semi-arid regions, with differences magnifying at longer timescales (24-month, <em>r</em> = 0.58). Moreover, trend analysis demonstrates that SPEI-detected drought intensification occurs twice as rapidly as SPI trends in critical agricultural zones (−0.14 vs. −0.07), implicating rising temperatures in accelerated aridification. Notably, most semi-arid regions show significantly stronger drying trends in the SPEI, highlighting the index's enhanced sensitivity to climate change impacts. These results challenge the use of precipitation-only indices in water-limited ecosystems, demonstrating that SPI underestimates drought frequency by 18–27 % and severity by 1.2–2.3 standardized units in drylands. Our study highlights the critical need of weighting temperature effects according to regional climatic conditions, with immediate implications for early warning systems in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108475"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Passive atmospheric wind profile retrieval via multi-region microwave radiometer network 基于多区域微波辐射计网络的被动大气风廓线反演

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108474

Shuailong Jiang , Yingying Ma , Chengwei Li , Lianfa Lei , Boming Liu , Shikuan Jin , Hui Li , Weiyan Wang , Ruonan Fan , Yujie Wang , Ao Miao , Wei Gong

{"title":"Passive atmospheric wind profile retrieval via multi-region microwave radiometer network","authors":"Shuailong Jiang , Yingying Ma , Chengwei Li , Lianfa Lei , Boming Liu , Shikuan Jin , Hui Li , Weiyan Wang , Ruonan Fan , Yujie Wang , Ao Miao , Wei Gong","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Atmospheric Wind Profile (AWP) retrieval is essential for applications in meteorology, aerospace, and renewable energy. This study introduces MWR-WINet, a novel framework for passive AWP retrieval using ground-based Microwave Radiometer (MWR) data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply passive MWR observations for wind profile estimation. The proposed approach incorporates a multi-district observation network to enhance spatial representation and introduces a composite loss function that combines Mean Squared Error (MSE) with Kullback–Leibler divergence (KL) to improve model performance. Applied to three districts in Xi'an—Weiyang, Chang'an, and Lintong—the model achieves retrieval errors of 1.63, 1.70, and 1.87 m/s, respectively. A joint three-district model further reduces the error to 1.27 m/s and enhances wind direction accuracy by 19.56 %, with a correlation gain of 0.08. These results demonstrate that a networked observational strategy significantly improves retrieval accuracy. This work overcomes the limitations of traditional observation methods and supports the broader application of MWR-based atmospheric profiling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108474"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing machine learning-based seasonal precipitation forecasting using CMIP6 simulations 利用CMIP6模拟增强基于机器学习的季节降水预报

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108463

Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B.M.J. Ouarda

{"title":"Enhancing machine learning-based seasonal precipitation forecasting using CMIP6 simulations","authors":"Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B.M.J. Ouarda","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The limited availability of observational and reanalysis data presents a significant challenge in training machine learning (ML) models for seasonal climate forecasting. Here, we show that training ML-based seasonal forecasting models with a larger number of individual simulations from CMIP6 models enhances their generalization ability and improves precipitation forecasts over South America. Using TelNet, a sequence-to-sequence machine learning model, we assess the performance of models trained with different numbers of CMIP6 simulations compared to those trained with ERA5 reanalysis and the CMIP6 ensemble mean. The results reveal that models trained with only a few CMIP6 simulations perform worse than those trained with ERA5, primarily due to instability during ML model tuning and reduced generalization ability. However, as the number of CMIP6 models increases, performance improves and surpasses both ERA5- and ensemble-mean-based ML models. Reliability and sharpness diagrams analysis further demonstrate that ML models trained with more CMIP6 simulations yield more confident and calibrated forecasts. Moreover, CMIP6-based TelNet constantly outperformed state-of-the-art dynamical models across different initialization months and lead times. This study underscores the potential of leveraging large multi-model dynamical simulations for robust ML-based seasonal climate forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108463"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of ammonium sulfate on the hygroscopic properties and phase transition of aerosols with organic surrogates related to biomass burning and atmospheric oxidation 硫酸铵对生物质燃烧和大气氧化相关有机代物气溶胶吸湿性和相变的影响

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108464

Xin Wang , Yukun Chen , Fang Wang , Yongwei Lu , Zilong Huang , Wei Wang , Yueshe Wang , Jianjun Li

{"title":"Effects of ammonium sulfate on the hygroscopic properties and phase transition of aerosols with organic surrogates related to biomass burning and atmospheric oxidation","authors":"Xin Wang , Yukun Chen , Fang Wang , Yongwei Lu , Zilong Huang , Wei Wang , Yueshe Wang , Jianjun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we investigated the hygroscopic properties of aerosols containing organics related to biomass burning and atmospheric oxidation mixed with (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> in various proportions during the hydration process using HTDMA. We extrapolated the morphology, phase transition, and potential chemical reactions based on the hygroscopic process of dried particles precipitated from the solution and findings from the literature. The levoglucosan-(NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> mixed particles exhibited deliquescence might be due to an incompletely encapsulated microstructure by levoglucosan, while a continuous growth process with gradual levoglucosan content increase could be attributed to the formation of a core-shell structure. Newly generated substances filled the micropores of succinic acid aerosol after the addition of (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub>, but (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> and succinic acid existed separately after droplet drying when (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> was dominant. Experimental results of three-component aerosols with adjustable mass ratios reveal that hygroscopic properties and deliquescent relative humidity (DRH) significantly increased with (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> content. In contrast, the increase in succinic acid reduced particle hygroscopicity at lower RH while having minimal effect on DRH. Furthermore, deliquescence was suppressed by forming a core-shell structure with levoglucosan increase, leading to continuous aerosol diameter increase. Overall, this study provides insights into the effects of (NH<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> on modulating the hygroscopic properties of typical organic surrogates related to biomass burning and atmospheric oxidation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108464"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-scale impacts of Indochina biomass burnings on tropospheric ozone in coastal South China: Insights from long-term (2000–2024) observations 中南半岛生物质燃烧对华南沿海对流层臭氧的多尺度影响：来自长期（2000-2024）观测的见解

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108465

Zhiheng Liao , Juncheng Zhu , Chunhua Li , Jielan Xie , Zhiqiang Ma

{"title":"Multi-scale impacts of Indochina biomass burnings on tropospheric ozone in coastal South China: Insights from long-term (2000–2024) observations","authors":"Zhiheng Liao , Juncheng Zhu , Chunhua Li , Jielan Xie , Zhiqiang Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biomass burning is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>). This study explored the impacts of Indochina springtime (March–April) biomass burnings on the variability and trend of tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> in coastal South China using long-term (2000–2024) ozonesondes in Hong Kong and satellite fire retrievals in the Indochina Peninsula (ICP), complemented with EAC4 reanalysis data. We find that the lower-free-tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> (LFTO<sub>3</sub>) concentrations in Hong Kong are significantly correlated with the Indochina biomass burnings, particularly with the two-day-ago biomass burnings in northern Laos (<em>r</em> = 0.57, <em>p</em> < 0.01). While Indochina biomass burning contributes more than 30 ppbv enhancements in LFTO<sub>3</sub> concentrations over coastal South China, their impacts on surface O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are insignificant. During the study period, there is a significant increasing trend in springtime LFTO<sub>3</sub> concentrations in Hong Kong (0.37 ppbv/year), despite decreasing quantity and intension of Indochina biomass burnings. This long-term LFTO<sub>3</sub> increasing trend is mainly driven by the eastward migration of Indochina biomass burnings (mainly due to the increase in biomass burnings in the central ICP region), which reduces transport distance to Hong Kong by ∼300 km and thereby improves the transport efficiency, ultimately contributing ∼90 % of the long-term LFTO<sub>3</sub> increase in Hong Kong. These findings advance understanding of Indochina biomass burning transport impacts on multi-scale tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> variability in coastal South China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108465"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Precipitation characteristics and formation mechanisms of prolonged southwesterly flow around southern Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season 梅雨季节台湾南部地区西南气流的降水特征及形成机制

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108460

Yen-Chao Chiu, Fang-Ching Chien

{"title":"Precipitation characteristics and formation mechanisms of prolonged southwesterly flow around southern Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season","authors":"Yen-Chao Chiu, Fang-Ching Chien","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The southwesterly flow (SW) is a synoptic-scale strong wind system that transports warm, moist air toward Taiwan and plays a crucial role in Taiwan's precipitation during the mei-yu season (May 15–June 15). Using ERA5 data (fifth-generation reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and rainfall observations from surface weather stations in Taiwan, this study examines the flow and rainfall characteristics of prolonged SW (PSW) cases and their relationship with extreme precipitation events around southern Taiwan during the 1979–2022 mei-yu seasons. Statistical analysis reveals a strong co-occurrence between PSW and persistent heavy rainfall (PHR), with 75 % of PHR cases occurring during PSW and 60 % of PSW cases featuring PHR. Furthermore, 83 % of R99.9 events (the 99.9th percentile rainfall intensity) are associated with PSW. Composite analysis demonstrates that the formation and maintenance of PSW involve specific synoptic-scale flow patterns: a slight eastward migration of the western North Pacific subtropical high, sustained intensity of the South Asian high, and persistent low-pressure systems over East Asia. These pressure patterns collectively establish sustained southwesterly winds, leading to significant wind speed intensification and moisture accumulation around Taiwan over an extended period (84–126 h). These findings highlight the crucial role of synoptic-scale pressure patterns in maintaining PSW and facilitating PHR occurrence, offering quantitative criteria for forecasting PSW during the mei-yu season.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108460"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abrupt decline and subsequent recovery of extreme precipitation associated with Atmospheric Rivers in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108461

Lanhua Luo , Chang-Qing Ke , Yu Cai , Haili Li , Yao Xiao , Vahid Nourani , Ali Danandeh Mehr , Adarsh Sankaran

{"title":"Abrupt decline and subsequent recovery of extreme precipitation associated with Atmospheric Rivers in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Lanhua Luo , Chang-Qing Ke , Yu Cai , Haili Li , Yao Xiao , Vahid Nourani , Ali Danandeh Mehr , Adarsh Sankaran","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), known as a crucial precipitation center within the Tibetan Plateau, has experienced frequent extreme precipitation events that have caused severe disasters. Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) have been recognized as significant contributors to extreme hydrological events, yet their characteristics and relationships with extreme precipitation in the SETP are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified ARs using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2023, quantified the variations in extreme precipitation associated with these ARs, and explored the underlying mechanisms driving these changes. The results demonstrated a critical role of ARs in modulating extreme precipitation over the SETP, Over the study period, a significant shift occurred in 1999 regarding ARs-related extreme precipitation. While this value increased prior to 1999, it experienced a sharp decline that year. Although a slight recovery was observed between 2000 and 2023, average levels remained below pre-1999 records. Fluctuations in ARs-related extreme precipitation are driven primarily by variations in ARs frequency, and the weakening of dynamic conditions associated with ARs may partly offset the enhancement effect of increased moisture availability, thereby limiting the intensification of extreme precipitation. Additionally, changes in atmospheric circulation further influence extreme precipitation by altering ARs pathways. This study enhances our understanding of the influence of ARs on extreme precipitation, providing critical insights into water resource management within the SETP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 108461"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0