Atmospheric Research最新文献_第4页

Abrupt vapor pressure deficit changes over Northeast Asia during 1990s linked to combined Mediterranean-Pacific SST shifts 20世纪90年代东北亚水汽压亏缺突变与地中海-太平洋海温联合转移有关

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108124

Zichen Song , Cheng Sun , Dong Xiao , Menghao Dong , Wei Lou , Linfeng Shi

{"title":"Abrupt vapor pressure deficit changes over Northeast Asia during 1990s linked to combined Mediterranean-Pacific SST shifts","authors":"Zichen Song , Cheng Sun , Dong Xiao , Menghao Dong , Wei Lou , Linfeng Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a crucial indicator of atmospheric dryness and humidity, influencing the land-atmosphere water exchange process. However, the mechanisms underlying VPD decadal abrupt change (DAC) and their impacts remain unclear. Here, we investigate the DACs of summer VPD in Northeast Asia during the late 20th century and explore the driving mechanisms. Our analysis reveals a significant increase of 20–30 % in summer VPD around 1998. Random forest modeling identifies surface temperature as the primary contributor, driven by atmospheric circulation shifts altering radiation patterns. The DAC of summer VPD in Northeast Asia coincided with abrupt sea surface temperature (SST) changes in both the tropical central Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea. AGCM simulations shed light on the underlying mechanisms driving the increasing DAC of summer VPD in Northeast Asia. These analyses reveal that a rapid decline in tropical central Pacific SST weakened the westerly jet stream. This weakening, in turn, led to a latitudinally uniform distribution of geopotential height and wind fields, ultimately triggering the formation of a high-pressure system over Northeast Asia. Additionally, a potential wave-like teleconnection pattern from the rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea may have further intensified this high-pressure system, exacerbating atmospheric dryness in the region. These findings highlight the role of synergistic SST anomalies in different regions driving atmospheric circulation changes, ultimately impacting regional VPD and dryness in Northeast Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108124"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modulation of landfalling tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by North Atlantic tripolar SST 北大西洋三极海温对北太平洋西部登陆热带气旋活动的调制

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108130

Ying Zhu , Shibin Xu , Fei Huang , Zuowei Ding

{"title":"Modulation of landfalling tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by North Atlantic tripolar SST","authors":"Ying Zhu , Shibin Xu , Fei Huang , Zuowei Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108130","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous research on the effects of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) has primarily focused on the tropical Atlantic region. This study investigates the relationship between the extra-equatorial North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern and landfalling TCs in the WNP. The findings reveal a significant positive lead-lag correlation between the negative–positive–negative NAT SSTA pattern and the genesis of landfalling TCs in the WNP. In high NAT years, more TCs form in the WNP and recurve northeastward to make landfall over the Korean Peninsula and Japan, while fewer TCs move westward or northwestward. The NAT tropical cold SSTA transmits signals to the WNP and modulates TC genesis via two ways: the eastward pathway through the North Indian Ocean and the westward pathway through the eastern North Pacific. This enhances cyclonic vorticity in the WNP monsoon trough region, facilitating increased TC genesis frequency in the region and thereby increasing the genesis frequency of landfalling TCs. Furthermore, the NAT SSTA influences the tracks of these landfalling TCs. The NAT SSTA pattern persists into summer, triggering a mid-high latitude teleconnection wave train that propagates downstream. This induces an anomalous anticyclone over Northeast Asia and an accompanying cyclonic circulation to its west. This circulation leads to the recurving of TC tracks rather than a northwestward or westward direction. The results suggest that the NAT SSTA is a potential predictor of TC formations and track patterns in the WNP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aerosol-PBL relationship under diverse meteorological conditions: Insights from satellite/radiosonde measurements in North China 不同气象条件下气溶胶与pbl的关系：来自华北地区卫星/探空测量的见解

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108125

Yarong Li , Jianjun He , Yuxiang Ren , Hong Wang

{"title":"Aerosol-PBL relationship under diverse meteorological conditions: Insights from satellite/radiosonde measurements in North China","authors":"Yarong Li , Jianjun He , Yuxiang Ren , Hong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) plays crucial roles in regulating air pollution levels; however, its relationships with PM<sub>2.5</sub> (fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) under diverse meteorological conditions, as well as potential causes, are not yet well understood. This study leverages approximately three years of satellite/radiosonde derived PBLH to investigate PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> relationships under six typical circulation patterns in North China, and some novel physical explanations for the varying PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> relationship are proposed. The six circulation patterns are dominated by three high- and three low-pressure systems, with significantly negative PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> correlations exhibited in high-pressure patterns, while weak or even insignificant relationships in low-pressure patterns. Meteorological factors, particularly humidity and vertical winds, can largely explain the varying PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> relationships across different synoptic patterns. Under high-pressure patterns, elevated PM<sub>2.5</sub> aligns well with high humidity within boundary layer, which restricts the magnitude of the PBLH and thus the negative PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> correlation. However, under low-pressure patterns, humidity in boundary layer and in free atmosphere exert conflicting effects on PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> relationship. Higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> is observed when only the boundary layer is moist, whereas when thewhole column is moist or supersaturated, nucleation, transitions, and wet scavenging lead to reduced PM<sub>2.5</sub> and lower PBLH, thereby the positive PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> correlation. Additionally, the column feature of vertical wind within boundary layer can also help explain the positive PBLH-PM<sub>2.5</sub> relationship. These findings provide deeper insights into understanding boundary layer processes and pollution dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Passive satellite hourly precipitation estimation over mainland China by combining cloud and meteorological parameters 结合云和气象参数估算中国大陆无源卫星逐时降水

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108112

Sihang Xu , Jiming Li , Jia Li , Deyu Wen , Miao Lei , Yuan Wang , Jianping Huang

{"title":"Passive satellite hourly precipitation estimation over mainland China by combining cloud and meteorological parameters","authors":"Sihang Xu , Jiming Li , Jia Li , Deyu Wen , Miao Lei , Yuan Wang , Jianping Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-quality satellite quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is crucial for theoretical studies and disaster monitoring. However, it remains unclear which information is effective or relatively less valuable. Accurately eliminating ineffective variables and applying effective ones as predictors can further enhance the accuracy and computational efficiency for QPE. In this study, an hourly QPE algorithm was developed using three machine learning (ML) models, including Random Forest, XGBoost and LightGBM. We focused on obtaining high-precision precipitation estimations and further analyzing the contribution of different input variables. Sensitivity experiments revealed that satellite visible channels and cloud properties are key factors for accurate QPE. In contrast, information provided solely by infrared channels and meteorological variables is relatively limited. Among three ML models, LightGBM achieved the best QPE, and was comparable to, or even slightly better than GPM IMERG, which may be attributed to its incorporation of more effective variables and training with ground rain gauge. However, it sometimes underestimates heavy precipitation compared to GPM IMERG, probably due to few training samples and saturation of satellite spectral signals. The analysis of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) indicates that QPE are more sensitive to cloud properties (e.g., cloud water path), but some meteorological factors, such as relative humidity at different pressure levels are becoming more important as the environment becomes drier. Additionally, the performance of ML model and GPM IMERG deeply relies on cloud type. These findings are expected to provide valuable references for the construction of future satellite QPE algorithms in terms of feature selection and data processing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108112"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of terrain resolution on an extreme snowstorm process over the Southern Tibetan Plateau: Spatial distribution and cloud microphysical processes 地形分辨率对青藏高原南部一次极端暴雪过程的影响：空间分布和云微物理过程

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108117

Pengchao An , Ying Li , Wei Ye , Xiaoting Fan

{"title":"Impacts of terrain resolution on an extreme snowstorm process over the Southern Tibetan Plateau: Spatial distribution and cloud microphysical processes","authors":"Pengchao An , Ying Li , Wei Ye , Xiaoting Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitation is an essential component of the water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in cold seasons. Investigating the impacts of various terrain resolutions in simulations on the precipitation distribution and rain-snow phase transition on the TP helps to understand the sources of simulation error and contributes to assessment and improvement. In this study, three types of terrain resolutions were used to conduct simulation experiments (namely WRF30s, WRF2m and WRF5m) on a large-scale extreme precipitation process over the TP under the influence of a storm over the Bay of Bengal in October 2008 near the Himalayas and the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon, which serve as representative regions influenced by northward moisture. The results indicate that the terrain resolutions affect the precipitation amount and phase distribution. On the north of the Himalayas, a snowfall-dominated “phase bias” based on “wet bias” is observed above 3 km, which strengthens as the terrain resolution reduces, relating to the stronger water vapor flux transport and larger cold bias resulting from the terrain smoothing. The Bomi station, which is located in the canyon, undergoing a snow-to-rain phase transition influenced by the storm received further attention. The study not only shows the cloud microphysical characteristics of the precipitation on the TP under the influence of storms, but further reveals the snow melting phase transition weakening, manifested as the increase of snowfall accompanied by the decrease of terrain resolution. Further detailed analysis of cloud microphysical process in Bomi shows that the latter is related to the decrease melting rates of snow and graupel caused by the compression of the melting layer when the terrain near canyon increases with terrain resolution decrease. Consequently, the distribution and phase transition of precipitation on the TP induced by terrain resolutions requires attention during the simulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108117"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Outer-core size asymmetry and intensification of North Atlantic tropical cyclones 北大西洋热带气旋外核大小不对称与增强

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108131

Huilin Li, Xiaodong Tang

{"title":"Outer-core size asymmetry and intensification of North Atlantic tropical cyclones","authors":"Huilin Li, Xiaodong Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Challenges persist in accurately predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensification and intensity change, owing to restricted understanding of the mechanisms involved. Here the relationship between TC asymmetry (TCA) of outer-core wind field and intensification over the North Atlantic is investigated using best-track and satellite-based wind analysis data from 2000 to 2021. The results suggest a negative correlation between TCA and the upper limit of intensification rate (IR), except in nearly symmetric TCs. TC records are categorized into groups of low, medium, and high asymmetry based on the distribution of TCA. The 24-h evolution of TCA and its variation preceding intensification onset reveal significant differences between TCs with low-to-medium and high asymmetry. TCs with low-to-medium asymmetry tend to exhibit axisymmetrization of the wind field under smaller vertical wind shear (VWS). In contrast, highly asymmetric TCs display sharp increases in wind speed on the downshear-left side of greater-magnitude VWS vector, which can reduce vortex tilt and fortifies TC's resilience against VWS. Furthermore, TCs with higher TCA encounter greater challenges during their intensification stage, especially those with lower lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). TCA reflects the worsening disorganization of convection or the expansion of the inner-core wind field, rendering weaker TCs more susceptible to the effects of VWS. These findings underscore the nuanced relationship between TCA and TC intensification, demonstrating that TCA can serve as an additional indicator to improve the accuracy of TC intensity predictions, while also providing novel insights into the mechanisms driving TC intensification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108131"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the inter-model spread of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the North Atlantic in CMIP6 models CMIP6模式中北大西洋热带气旋发生频率的模式间传播

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108128

Boyang Wang , Jian Cao , Jiawei Feng , Chao Wang , Haikun Zhao , Liguang Wu

{"title":"On the inter-model spread of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the North Atlantic in CMIP6 models","authors":"Boyang Wang , Jian Cao , Jiawei Feng , Chao Wang , Haikun Zhao , Liguang Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the North Atlantic (NA) has long posed a challenge for coupled models, showing significant inter-model spread of TC numbers in the NA main development region and its ratio to the Northern Hemisphere total. This ratio is referred to as relative tropical cyclone genesis frequency (RTCGF). By explicitly detecting TCs from the historical simulations of 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, we found that the RTCGF ranges from 0.2 % to 18.9 %, compared to 14.8 % in the observations. This diversity in RTCGF across models is mainly affected by large-scale conditions and African easterly waves, whereas the impact from model resolution is limited. The differences in large-scale conditions originate from the relative sea surface temperature (SST) in the NA compared to the tropics. A higher relative SST triggers the convergence of westerly from the Pacific Ocean and easterly from Africa toward the NA, which enhances low-troposphere vorticity, mid-troposphere ascending motion, and moist convection, creating more favorable large-scale conditions for TC genesis. However, vertical wind shear is less affected by relative SST and has a minor role in the inter-model spread of TC genesis. Further analysis demonstrates that the horizontal resolution is not the key for accurately simulating relative SST and the activity of African easterly waves in the current coupled models. Our findings suggest that model physics may be more relevant to TC activity in coupled models with a resolution of approximately 1–2°.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Likelihoods of compound dry-hot-windy events are projected to increase under global warming 预计在全球变暖的情况下，复合干热风事件发生的可能性会增加

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108119

Qian Ma, Zengchao Hao, Yitong Zhang, Yuting Pang

{"title":"Likelihoods of compound dry-hot-windy events are projected to increase under global warming","authors":"Qian Ma, Zengchao Hao, Yitong Zhang, Yuting Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dry, hot, and windy conditions are detrimental factors that can wither and burn up vegetation. Moreover, the combination of them, as represented by concurrences of low relative humidity, high temperature, and high wind speed, can lead to even higher impacts on agricultural production or wildfires, which is still under-assessed. Here we investigate spatial pattern of and changes in the compound dry-hot-windy (DHW) events in historical periods (1951–2014) and future periods (2037–2100) across global areas (including crop regions and burned areas) based on the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the likelihood (or frequency) of compound DHW events is observed in historical periods and can be even higher in the future across global land areas. Specifically, the projected frequency of compound DHW events in the future period under the SSP585 scenario nearly triples the value in historical periods. Moreover, the increase in compound DHW events is also projected in ten main wheat exporters, in particular for Europe, Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil. Over global burn areas, the higher risk of compound DHW events during fire seasons is also projected in the future. Findings from this study can be useful for agricultural planning and natural resources management under a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"322 ","pages":"Article 108119"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of extreme heatwaves in Southern China in August 2022 and 2024 2022年8月和2024年8月中国南方极端热浪的比较

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108116

Kangjie Ma , Hainan Gong , Lin Wang , Hongjie Fang , Wen Chen

{"title":"Comparison of extreme heatwaves in Southern China in August 2022 and 2024","authors":"Kangjie Ma , Hainan Gong , Lin Wang , Hongjie Fang , Wen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In August 2022 and 2024, Southern China experienced unprecedented heatwaves. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we conducted a comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between these two extreme heatwaves. Our findings reveal that while the 2024 heatwave was less intense than the one in 2022, it was more concentrated in late August, unlike the prolonged heatwave in 2022, which spanned the entire month. Despite these variations in intensity and duration, both heatwaves were driven by a common atmospheric mechanism: anomalous easterly winds resulted in subsidence and significant temperature anomalies across Southern China. These easterly winds were closely associated with an anticyclone anomaly over the region, influenced by an upstream wave train from Europe. Crucially, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Barents Sea played a vital role in sustaining and forming this wave train. To further validate this mechanism, we conducted a regression analysis using historical data from 1979 to 2024, confirming its broad applicability in explaining heatwaves in Southern China, including those of shorter durations like the 2024 event. This study significantly advances our understanding of heatwave dynamics in Southern China and offers novel insights that can improve future predictive capabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108116"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting spatio-temporal variation in compound dry-hot extreme events in China with newly developed nonstationary index 基于非平稳指数的中国复合干热极端事件时空变化研究

IF 4.5 2区地球科学

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108111

Chaoran Zhao , Yao Feng , Tingting Wang , Wenbin Liu , Hong Wang , Ning Wang , Yanhua Liu , Fubao Sun

{"title":"Revisiting spatio-temporal variation in compound dry-hot extreme events in China with newly developed nonstationary index","authors":"Chaoran Zhao , Yao Feng , Tingting Wang , Wenbin Liu , Hong Wang , Ning Wang , Yanhua Liu , Fubao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound dry-hot extreme events (CDHEs), as the most typical compound extreme events, bring more harm to human society than single extreme events. Traditional indicators based on stationary assumptions of hydrometeorological variables for CDHEs detection may no longer be valid due to anthropogenic and climate change impacts. The nonstationary hydrometeorological series has been extensively studied but rarely considered in identifying CDHEs. Therefore, this paper develops a nonstationary compound dry-hot index (NCDHI) with climate index and anthropogenic factors as covariates, to revisit CDHEs in China from 1961 to 2020 using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) model. The results show that the nonstationary model is better than the traditional stationary model in fitting precipitation and temperature series. Validation using typical disaster events and losses data reveals a higher correlation between the NCDHI and actual disaster losses, confirming the good applicability of the NCDHI in China. Areas affected by CDHEs of varying severity have increased in China during the study period. Meanwhile, the severity of CDHEs has also been exacerbated, with more severe in the central and eastern regions. Furthermore, CDHEs in the western regions, though less intense, occur more frequently. The proposed NCDHI can capture the characteristics of CDHEs in China, which provides a new idea for constructing a compound dry-hot index that can effectively adapt to environmental changes. The index can further improve the scientific understanding of compound extreme events' temporal and spatial patterns and provide a scientific basis for regional risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"321 ","pages":"Article 108111"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143768433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0